Measuring progress and evolution in science and technology – I: The multiple uses of bibliometric indicators

Science and technology development have become critical instruments in the public policy arena given their demonstrated impact on economic progress. As a consequence, a vast array of indicators for measuring and mapping scientific and technological activity, their progress and their outcomes, has been developed over recent decades (see for instance, the EU Commission, 2nd Report on S&T Indicators 1997). The majority of them relate to measuring and mapping the published journal and patent literature. The first part of this review paper focuses on a state–of–the–art overview of bibliometric indicators and their multiple uses in supporting the development of science and technology policy. The limitations and the pitfalls related to their use are also discussed.     

技术的演化与锁定

试用演化经济理论研究与市场用户具有动态回报递增和动态回报递减关系的两类技术的演化问题 .通过建立一个动态随机系统模型 ,论证了这类技术演化的长期均衡对应于某个函数的稳定不动点 ,提出了动态回报递增效应技术演化的多重均衡性和主导技术出现的可能性 ,分析了动态回报递减效应技术演化的不同特征 ,最后给出了一些政策含义     

Framing socioecological complexity: The long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in Italy

Desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in Southern Europe. The present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in Italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). These risk components were evaluated separately in Southern Italy, a formerly affected region (sensu United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), and Northern/Central Italy, a nonaffected region in the country. All risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in Italy has gradually reduced. Because of local warming and rising human pressure, Northern Italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in Southern Italy over the last 30 years. These results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. The intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in Italy may be generalized to a broader European context. Our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. A comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk.     

The uses and abuses of experience curves

Unit costs decline by a constant percentage each time the accumulated production, or ‘experience’, of the firm doubles. This observation, known as the experience curve phenomenon, has been widely taught and written about during the past 15 years. Yet, few companies use the experience curve as a planning tool. This article shows that even if experience curves can be unreliable and unwiedly at times as a technical planning tool (though a computer model can facilitate their use), they remain a very helpful conceptual tool for competitive analysis.     

The evolution of organizations and leadership from the ancient world to modernity: A multilevel approach to organizational science and leadership (OSL)

The purpose of this paper is to offer an initial theory, timeline, and taxonomy for discussing and researching the evolution of types of organizations and the concomitant context they provide for leadership. Specifically, leadership roles in the ancient world and modernity are contrasted and found to be almost diametrically opposed. To arrive at this conclusion, this work draws upon current extensions of evolutionary theory from biology and psychology to organizational studies and leadership (Yammarino & Dansereau, 2011). This framework is then contrasted with Kellerman (2012) who calls for an end to leadership studies. The question this paper attempts to address is: from a multi-level perspective, how have evolutionary changes in the types of commercial organizational structures led to differing dominant leadership styles? Without having to call for an end to leadership studies, an understanding of ancient forms of organization can lend insight into a number of contemporary business and geopolitical conflicts where tribalism is a factor.     

Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968–2004

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND Corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. Adjusted data analyzed involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 "adverse" events (each causing >or= 1 victim), and 86,568 "casualties" (injuries), of which 25,408 were fatal. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties, and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (IS) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (OR). IS had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of OR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in OR that increased approximately 100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14% to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2.5% (or 10%) of harm-ranked events in OR (or IS). Extreme values of victim/event rates were approximated fairly well by generalized Pareto models (typically used to fit to data on forest fires, sea levels, earthquakes, etc.). These results were in turn used to forecast maximum OR- and IS-specific victims/event rates through 2080, illustrating empirically-based methods that could be applied to improve strategies to assess, prevent, and manage terror-related risks and consequences.     

Strategies for Europe proposals for science and technology policies industrial innovation in Europe

Europe's performance with respect to industrial innovation is compared to those of USA and Japan. The reasons for Europe's relatively poor performance are examined and related to institutional, cultural and social factors. An appropriate strategy for innovation in European industry is then defined.     

Measuring Unemployment in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia

Abstract. Measuring unemployment in developing countries is not straightforward due to the presence of a large number of discouraged workers. Including them into the labor force is sometimes appropriate in order to reflect the true state of unemployment. However, the decision must be based on careful research. This study provides a case study of Indonesia, whose decision to include discouraged workers into its labor force resulted in an artificially high unemployment rates and disguised the actual post‐crisis decline in unemployment in Indonesia. The discouraged workers can be classified based on their willingness to work. If Indonesia still wants to include discouraged workers into the labor force, only those willing to work should be included.     

技术差距与人力资本约束下的技术进步模式

基于同时内生国外模仿与自主创新的R&D增长模型,假定异质型人力资本在两种技术进步模式中具有不同的效应,分析了在技术差距和人力资本约束条件下后发国技术进步模式的决定及技术政策效应.分析表明:后发国技术进步模式的选择取决于技术差距和两种人力资本的构成比例;在人力资本的约束下,鼓励技术进步的政策效应取决于技术差距.其政策含义十分明显:后发国应当根据研发资源和技术水平选择适宜的主导技术进步模式,科技政策应体现行业和区域主导技术进步模式的差异性,并根据主导技术进步模仿变化体现其动态性.     

Measuring Market‐Manufacturing Congruence: Conceptual Reaffirmations and Mathematical Modifications

Narasimhan and Wang (2000) provide a valuable addition to the research base by identifying a limitation in two of the original equations in Bozarth and Berry (1997), which we resolve, and a possible research direction for the calibration of indifference profiles. However, they fall short in their interpretation of key conceptual and methodological issues, including the distinction between indifference and ideal profiles, the difference between individual profile dimensions and overall congruence, and firm versus industry‐level manufacturing strategy research. We use this opportunity to clear up these points of confusion, and to reaffirm the value of the methodology introduced in Bozarth and Berry (1997).     

The multiple faces of tension: dualities in decision-making

Review of Managerial Science - In making decisions about strategic and operational actions, managers commonly need to consider dualities such as long-term versus short-term, innovation versus...     

Source Credibility in Environmental Health – Risk Controversies: Application of Meyer's Credibility Index

This article applies an existing five-item index for measuring source credibility in the context of environmental health-risk controversy. Survey data were gathered in five upstate New York communities facing environmental health-risk issues. Analysis of the five case studies and a combined dataset (N = 870) show that the credibility index was consistently reliable across all applications. Use of the resulting index is demonstrated through a comparison of the credibility of the New York State Department of Health (active in each case), the industries associated with each case, and the newspaper providing coverage of each case. The credibility index was used to predict risk judgments in a structural equation model. Overall, the analysis demonstrated that the credibility index performed consistently well across the five cases and illuminated important differences in each. As such, the index should be a useful addition to many environmental health and risk communication studies.     

The Cadbury Committee recommendations on corporate governance – a review of compliance and performance impacts

In December 1992, the Cadbury Committee published their Code of Best Practice. The recommendations, which largely reflected perceived best practice at the time, included separating the roles of CEO and chairman, having a minimum of three non-executive directors on the board and the formulation of audit committees. The Code also advocated that a more active role be taken by institutional investors in the promotion of good practice in corporate governance. This paper discusses how agency problems may be (partially) resolved by corporate governance, reviews the evidence on compliance with the Cadbury Code and examines the relationship between board structure and firm performance, looking for evidence that the Code has enhanced board performance. While there is no empirical evidence of an association between board structure and firm value, there is some evidence that compliance with the Cadbury recommendations enhances board oversight with respect to the manipulation of accounting numbers and the discipline of the top executive.     

Measuring Abstract Constructs in Management and Organizational Research: The Case of Export Coordination

Rossiter (2008) attempts to show that traditional measure development procedures are flawed. He illustrates his reasoning using measures of the export coordination construct (Diamantopoulos and Siguaw, British Journal of Management, 17 (2006), pp. 263–282), and ‘corrects’ these measures using the C‐OAR‐SE procedure for scale development. We explain the errors that Rossiter (2008) makes in his application of the C‐OAR‐SE procedure, and in the assumptions inherent in the C‐OAR‐SE procedure. We demonstrate that the ‘corrected’ measure that Rossiter (2008) develops using the C‐OAR‐SE procedure lacks validity. We conclude that the C‐OAR‐SE procedure needs more work if it is become a useful tool for researchers.