Age structure,education, and the transmission of technical change

The significance of deviations from exponential population growth to economic development requires the construction of growth models that explicitly recognize demographic forces as a potential source of nonstationarities. This paper uses an overlapping generations approach to analyze the impact of population aging on technological innovations in the production process. Specifically, it is assumed that a newly invented technology can be used only if the production unit engages human labor that has been trained for this task (labor-embodied technical change). In a model of overlapping generations 1-sector optimal growth, there are 3 basic components: population, education and labor, and production and investment. An individual who has been in school continuously from the time of birth embodies, according to this model, the most up-to-date form of human capital. When the population growth rate is high, technological innovations are achieved largely through the constant influx of recently educated young people into the labor force. However, when population declines lead to a slowing down of this influx, increased adult education is necessary to stimulate the continued introduction of innovations into the productive process. The form of the optimality conditions, the comparative statistics properties, and the form of the nonstationary optimal economic growth path in this model are similar to those in the Van Imhoff model of homogeneous human capital.     

Population growth, age structure, and environmental impact

We develop and use a simulation model that considers sustainability on several levels by calculating production, consumption, investment, population growth/change, and environmental pollution less environmental quality upgrading investment. Our model allows us to consider population's impact on per capita consumption as well as the social interdependencies among populations, per capita consumption, and technology. Under certain population growth scenarios we find some countries ultimately consume less pollution, and less pollution is consumed on a system-wide basis. We arrive at this apparently counterintutive result because: (1) we explicitly model the decision to invest in environmental quality upgrading; and (2) we consider the impact of population age structure on investment, not only the impact of total population and population growth on total consumption.     

Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models

Economists often over estimate capital dilution effects when applying neoclassical growth models which use age structured population and depreciation of capital stock. This occurs because capital stock is improperly characterized. A standard model which assumes a constant depreciation of capital intimates that a population growth rate equal to a negative constant savings ratio is preferable to any higher growth rate. Growth rates which are lower than a negative constant savings ratio suggest an ever growing capital/labor ratio and an ever growing standard of living, even if people do not save. This is suggested because the natural reduction of the capital stock through depreciation is slower than the population decrease which is simply unrealistic. This model overlooks the fact that low or negative growth rates result in an ageing of the capital stock, and this ageing subsequently results in an increase of the overall rate of capital depreciation. In that overly simplistic model, depreciation was assumed independent of the age of the captial stock. Incorporating depreciation as a variable into a model allows a more symmetric treatment of capital. Using models with heterogenous capital, this article explores what occurs when more than 1 kind of capital good is involved in production and when these various captial goods have different lengths of life. Applying economic models, it also examines what occurs when the length of life of capital may vary. These variations correct the negative impact that population growth can have on per capital production and consumption.     

The population structure and development of the national minorities in Guangxi]

The Guangxi Autonomous Region has the largest number of minorities in China. Since 1949, great progress has been achieved in the areas of politics, the economy, culture and education, public health, science and technology, and production businesses. The living standard for the minorities as been raised, and the minority populationshows a trend toward rapid growth. As a matter of fact, the population growth for the minorities exceeds that of te Han people, and an imbalance exists in the population growth of minorities. Population growth does not match the development and production of material resources. The rapid population growth has an adverse impact on the increase in average income and an adequate supply of consumer goods for all the people. In addition, great pressure has been experienced in education, public health, and other developments at the local level. The promotion of population quality for the minorities has also been slowed because of the rapid population growth in quality. At the present time, minorities in the Guangxi area need to develop their economy with greater effort. In addition, they need to practice effective family planning measures with more enthusiasm so that they may gradually reduce the population growth rate and reach a harmony between economic growth and social development.     

Some problems on objective laws of population]

We must realize the existence and the importance of objective laws of population to understand the practical law. Population growth is determined by physiological and sociological factors. Furthermore, the sociological factor is determined by the production of the society. Until production reaches a certain level, the direction of population growth in both quantity and quality parallels production. After the population reaches a certain level, both the production and the quality of population growth continue to increase, but the quantity of the population growth decreases. Production requires both labor and material. Their relationship is expressed as the objective law of simple reproduction and expanded reproduction. The rapid development of technology and production in capitalistic societies results in unemployment. This "excess" population is a product of the capitalistic system. The rapid development of technology and production in a socialistic society results not in unemployment but in shorter working days and a higher living standard. The objective law of population growth is not transformed into a law of comparative population excess but into a unique socialistic population law--the formation of a highly civilized communistic working people.     

The new point in population theory: some questions in the current demographic textbooks]

The current population theory in China emphasize that human reproduction must keep pace with the production of goods and services. The author of this paper challenges this theory and believes that the relationship between these two kinds of production, human reproduction should take the principal place. Production of goods and services must first meet the needs of people. Keeping population growth in pace with production of goods and services is of secondary importance. The demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality in developed country was not caused by poverty, hunger, and surplus of the labor force, and it was not the end result of forcing population growth to stay in pace with material production. Increasing productivity to provide abundant goods depend on improving the quality of the population. When the purpose of consumption is not only for survival, demands for material goods and leisure will take precedence over demands for children. An-emphasis on keeping population reproduction in pace with the production of goods and services tends to ignore the importance of increasing productivity which is the key to the improvement of living standards.     

More people - more energy: it seems obvious enough,but Carter plan ignores population

In President Carter's National Energy Plan, there are variable factors, including the coal production rate, standards for home insulation and auto mileage, various taxes, but not the population growth rate. The latter factor is considered to be beyond the influence of public policy; it is a constant. This seems irrational to zero population growth proponents, for there are alternatives to continued U.S. population growth, and these alternatives are more readily attainable than some of the elements in Carter's plan. With some national initiatives in population planning, energy use would be considerably less. Thus, the question remains - Why would Carter not deal with the population factor? 1 reason for this is the fact that population planning is a long-term approach; the results are indirect and not reflected immediately in energy comsumption. Yet, a start must be made in the short-term if there are ever to be long-term benefits. Russell Peterson has suggested that Carter could be ignoring the population factor because of "political sensitivity." Carter's people have ignored the population issue, and press coverage following Carter's energy pronouncements has excluded the population factor. In a situation such as this there seems little hope for increased public awareness of the population factor in energy or other public concerns.     

Learning-by-doing,population pressure,and the theory of demographic transition

The present paper discusses the long-run effects of two interdependent relations between economic and population growth. According to a frequently used formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance to the theory of demographic transition the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of a low-income equilibrium and a high-income equilibrium will be shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state takes place. The result yields a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth. Received March 8, 1996 / Accepted October 24, 1996     

Survey of the population development of the minority Li of the Hai-nan Island]

Hai-nan Island is under the jurisdiction of Guangdong Province and has a population of 5,520,000, of which 85% belong to the Han ethnic group, and 13.4% to the Li ethnic group, and there are other small minorities. Since 1949, the population of Hai-nan Island has more than doubled, and a serious population problem exists. Among the minorities, the population growth for the Li people in 1 autonomous region of the Island has been very rapid for 2 reasons: 1) the large number of immigrants moving in from other places, and 2) a high fertility rate among the Li people. In order to slow down the rate of population growth on the Island, the 1st step should be to slow down the growth rate of the largest ethnic group, the Han people. The Li people live mainly in rural and poor areas, and their production level has been very low. In the past 30 years, tremendous progress has been made to improve the health care and livelihood of the Li people. Before 1949, the total number of Li people was only 300,000. By 1980, the Li population had increased to more than 740,000, more than doubling the 1949 figure. This rapid population growth has helped economic development in the areas inhabited by the Li people. On the average, each household in the Li autonomous region has 5.3 children. In order to further improve the living standard of the people, family planning is needed for the Li community. The traditional belief of having more children is currently undergoing a change in the minds of the Li people. The policy of offering economic reward to those who follow family planning regulations is working, and more work is needed to curb rapid population growth.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

Searching for balanced development

It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly.     

A tentative discussion on problems of enhancement of population quality in China]

Population quality is an undeniable fact. It means people's scientific and cultural literacy, their ability to work, and their physical health condition. Population quality is influenced by sociological and physiological factors. Population quality improves as society and production power improve. Industrialization and rapid development in science and technology in western countries required workers with higher levels of education and physical concentration. In order to change the poor economic situation and achieve the "Four Modernizations" in China, a great number of people possessing knowledge of modern science and technology to manage modern production is needed. Agricultural and meat production need to be improved, thereby improving the people's physical health condition. The importance of population quantity control must be realized. In order to lower the population growth rate we can increase the economic development and improve people's educational level and physical health. To improve population quality we should continue nationwide family planning programs, change our educational structure (increase vocational training and utilize the electronic media and correspondence courses), improve the physical health of children and youth, expand our social welfare system, and emphasize research on genetics and eugenics.     

The characteristics of population growth of the Dongxiang nationality and the necessity of carrying out family planning]

For a long time, the Dongxiang nationality has lived in the area of Dongxiang, which is a part of Gu Hezhou in Gansu Province. Among the various minorities in China, the Dongxiang people has been noted for their small population. In recent years, however, their population growth rate has been very high. Statistics show their annual population growth rate was 13.5% in 1970 and 32.8% in 1980. This situation is caused mainly by the young age of the population (young persons under the age of 19 constitute 55.7% of the entire population). Because of the popularity of Islam among the people, the custom of early marriage and having children at an early age has long been a tradition. Rapid population growth has created numerous problems. Food production has been unable to keep up with the speed of the population growth, and economic development cannot satisfy the needs of the rapid growing population. The Dongxiang people are physically healthy and strong, and marriages between close relatives is prohibited. Because of the backward condition in education and culture, efforts to promote the quality of the Dongxiang population have remained slow and ineffective. Starting in 1974, the local government in Dongxiang launched extensive birth control projects and positive results have been achieved. At the present time, about 62% of its population have taken birth control measures, and the natural population growth rate dropped to 15.34% in 1982.     

The people food equation

Over the past 10 years, the Asian and South Pacific region has been experiencing a population growth rate which has prevented significant per capita gains in food production. Despite the introduction of the new food-grain-growing techniques in the South and Southeast Asian areas, cereal production per person in the populations has actually declined. The output of rice alone has only just exceeded the 2.3% growth rate by the narrowest of margins, and wheat and maize production dropped behind population growth on 3 occasions over the 1973-1976 period. A better indicator of how the race between people and food is proceeding is to measure total food consumption in terms of calories, but the record is poor in this situation also. Output of all the varied ingredients of Asian's diet is more than a technical problem. There are other economic and social considerations - other obstacles in the people vs. food race. Poverty and malnutrition are not totally caused by insufficient output, the problems are closely related to unemployment and the unequal distribution of income, rural poverty, and the "invisible infrastructure" hurdle which includes the elements of credit and institutions.     

Population aging, health care, and growth: a comment on the effects of capital accumulation

In a recent paper, Hashimoto and Tabata (J Popul Econ 23:571–593, 2010) present a theoretical model in which the increase in the rate of dependence due to aging of the population leads to a reallocation of labor from non-health to health production and, as a consequence, to a decline in economic growth. We argue that these results rely heavily on assumptions of a “small economy” and perfect capital mobility, which tie down the amount of capital. In this paper, we proceed by analyzing the case of an economy in which the availability of capital is endogenously determined by domestic savings. We find that the new “capital accumulation effect” is opposite to the previous “dependency rate effect,” leaving the effect on economic growth ambiguous. In particular, if the former prevailed, population aging would foster economic growth, a result that finds support in recent empirical work.     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.     

Birth planning being a historical trend of population evolution in China]

China has historically valued and promoted population growth. Throughout the centuries, China's population development was characterized by 4 trends: 1) High birth rate caused by: a patriarchical system and ethical philosophy of ancestor worship which required a continuous family line, plus a system of private ownership where land was the primary means of production; a political philosophy that encouraged births and punished the lack of offspring; and a social attitude that promoted early marriages. 2) High death rate caused by: civil wars and violent struggles for power; natural disasters; plague; and infanticide of female babies. 3) A relatively slow rate of population growth resulting from high birth and death rates. 4) A relatively sparse population and abundant land prior to the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). With the establishment of a new China, basic changes occurred in the social system and the means of production. For 30 years (1949-1979), China enjoyed peace, higher educational and public health standards, and was free from disastrous natural calamities, a consequence of which was a higher birth rate and lower death rate. Concurrently the thinking was that "the more people the better," so that population grew at an alarming rate. From 1949 to 1979, China's population increased by 422,150,000, compared with its previous 2000 years in which the population had increased nearly 400,000,000. In 1965, the national birth rate was 38.06/1000 compared with 19.95/1000 in 1944 for the 6 largest cities. The death rate in 1938 was 28.2/1000, but by 1965 it had dropped to 9.55/1000. The rate of natural population growth in 1965 was 28.51/1000 compared with the highest rate in China's history of 1957/1000 durint the Eastern Huan Dynasty (25-189 A.D.). Unfortunately there has been no conscious policy to plan population growth along with economic growth, so that population grew uncontrolled and people had less land per person than at any other time in China's history. Thus, China now advocates 1 child per couple.     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries

We examine pollution in a developing country where fertility is endogenous and wealth increases welfare through status. When the country has defective environmental laws, it has a comparative advantage in capital-intensive “dirty” goods. Gains from trade due to trade liberalization then increase income and boost population growth. With strong incentives to save, they also stimulate investment, which hampers population growth. Because population growth crowds out labor supply, production of capital-intensive dirty goods first increases and then decreases. This yields a typical environmental Kuznets path: pollution increases at the earlier stages but decreases at the later stages of development.