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1.
Several models of decision-making imply systematic violations of transitivity of preference. Our experiments explored whether
people show patterns of intransitivity predicted by regret theory and majority rule. To distinguish “true” violations from
those produced by “error,” a model was fit in which each choice can have a different error rate and each person can have a
different pattern of true preferences that need not be transitive. Error rate for a choice is estimated from preference reversals
between repeated presentations of that same choice. Our results showed that very few people repeated intransitive patterns.
We can retain the hypothesis that transitivity best describes the data of the vast majority of participants.
相似文献
Michael H. BirnbaumEmail: |
2.
In two experiments conducted with low-income participants, we find that individuals are more likely to buy state lottery tickets
when they make several purchase decisions one-at-a-time, i.e. myopically, than when they make one decision about how many
tickets to purchase. These results extend earlier findings showing that “broad bracketing” of decisions encourages behavior
consistent with expected value maximization. Additionally, the results suggest that the combination of myopic decision making
and the “peanuts effect”—greater risk seeking for low stakes than high stakes gambles—can help explain the popularity of state
lotteries.
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George LoewensteinEmail: |
3.
Pavlo R. Blavatskyy 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(3):259-286
This paper proposes a new decision theory of how individuals make random errors when they compute the expected utility of
risky lotteries. When distorted by errors, the expected utility of a lottery never exceeds (falls below) the utility of the
highest (lowest) outcome. This assumption implies that errors are likely to overvalue (undervalue) lotteries with expected
utility close to the utility of the lowest (highest) outcome. Proposed theory explains many stylized empirical facts such
as the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, common consequence effect (Allais paradox), common ratio effect and violations
of betweenness. Theory fits the data from ten well-known experimental studies at least as well as cumulative prospect theory.
相似文献
Pavlo R. BlavatskyyEmail: |
4.
5.
People violate expected utility theory and this has been traditionally modeled by augmenting its weight-and-add framework
by nonlinear transformations of values and probabilities. Yet individuals often use one-reason decision-making when making
court decisions or choosing cellular phones, and institutions do the same when creating rules for traffic safety or fair play
in sports. We analyze a model of one-reason decision-making, the priority heuristic, and show that it simultaneously implies
common consequence effects, common ratio effects, reflection effects, and the fourfold pattern of risk attitude. The preferences
represented by the priority heuristic satisfy some standard axioms. This work may provide the basis for a new look at bounded
rationality.
相似文献
Konstantinos V. KatsikopoulosEmail: |
6.
Marco Casari 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):117-141
An agent with dynamically inconsistent preferences may deviate from her plan of action as the future draws near. An exponential
discounter may do exactly the same when facing an uncertain future. Through an experiment we compare preference-based vs.
uncertainty-based explanations for choice reversal over time by eliciting choices for pre-commitment and flexibility. Evidence
of widespread commitment favors a preference-based explanation.
相似文献
Marco CasariEmail: |
7.
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively
estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional
on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments.
In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information
in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past
or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.
相似文献
Frank SloanEmail: |
8.
We implement a risk experiment that allows for judgment errors to investigate who makes mistakes and whether it matters. The
experiments are conducted with a random sample of the adult population in Rwanda, and data on financial decisions are collected.
We find a high proportion of inconsistent choices, with over 50% of the participants making at least one mistake. Importantly,
errors are informative. While risk aversion alone does not explain financial decisions, risk aversion and inconsistent choices
interact in significant and sensible ways. As we would expect, risk-averse individuals are more likely to belong to a savings
group and less likely to take out an informal loan. For those more likely to make mistakes, however, as they become more risk
averse, they are less likely to belong to a savings group and more likely to take up informal credit, suggesting that mistakes correlate with less than optimal behavior.
相似文献
Ragan Petrie (Corresponding author)Email: |
9.
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential
contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection
implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles
or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare.
相似文献
Howard KunreutherEmail: |
10.
Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal
effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different
points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects
are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we
do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.
相似文献
Lisa R. AndersonEmail: |
11.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
12.
Mohammed Abdellaoui Han Bleichrodt Olivier L’Haridon 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(3):245-266
This paper provides an efficient method to measure utility under prospect theory. Our method minimizes both the number of
elicitations required to measure utility and the cognitive burden for subjects, being based on the elicitation of certainty
equivalents for two-outcome prospects. We applied our method in an experiment and were able to replicate the main findings
on prospect theory, suggesting that our method measures what it is intended to. Our data confirmed empirically that risk seeking
and concave utility can coincide under prospect theory. Utility did not depend on the probability used in the elicitation,
which offers support for the validity of prospect theory.
相似文献
Olivier L’HaridonEmail: |
13.
Dinky Daruvala 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(3):265-283
This paper reports results from an economic experiment where respondents are asked to make choices between risky outcomes
for themselves and others. We investigate whether subjects’ own risk preferences and gender stereotypes are reflected in the
predictions they make for the risk preferences of others and the way this occurs. When predicting other people’s risk preferences,
the respondents tend to use a combination of their own risk preferences and stereotypes. Moreover, when making risky choices
for others, the respondents generally use a combination of their own risk preferences and their average predicted risk preference
of the targeted group.
相似文献
Dinky DaruvalaEmail: |
14.
15.
Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency.
Economic theorists have identified three possible responses—to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act
resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their
inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish
these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naive or resolute (with slightly more being naive)
but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic
situations.
相似文献
John D. HeyEmail: |
16.
Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Enrico Diecidue Peter P. Wakker Marcel Zeelenberg 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(3):179-199
This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable
manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers
can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric
techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei
stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations
of rank dependence.
相似文献
Peter P. WakkerEmail: URL: http://www.few.eur.nl/few/people/wakker/ |
17.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
18.
We present two theorems that yield necessary and sufficient conditions for first- and second-degree stochastic dominance deteriorations
of background risk to increase risk aversion with respect to foreground risk. We require that any change in a foreground risk
that is undesirable remains so after a background risk changes in a way that is either unfair, undesirable in the sense of
reducing expected utility, or undesirable in the sense of increasing expected marginal utility. Our results thus characterize
utility functions that are, respectively, vulnerable, proper, or standard with respect to changes in background risk.
相似文献
Arthur SnowEmail: |
19.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
20.
Christian Gollier 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):107-127
We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability
distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover,
increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that
when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This
can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.
相似文献
Christian GollierEmail: |