技术创新速度对新技术购买行为的影响 ———两代未来创新的情况

通过引入第二代未来创新更好地实现了将技术创新的购买看作一系列实物期权的思想. 讨论了实物期权价值以及触发现有创新购买、跨越或升级到未来创新的状态临界值的求解方 法,在假定现有创新和第一代未来创新均出现情况下给出了购买时机的概率模型. 数字释例表 明,虽然技术创新速度对购买行为的影响在仅有一代未来创新情况下呈现明显的非单调特征, 但对第二代未来创新的预期将显著削弱甚至消除创新速度影响中的非单调特征,从而为直观 分析特别是实证结果提供了更好的理论支持     

新兴技术创新速度分析——一种实物期权方法

在创新采纳成本随时间下降的情况下,采用实物期权方法通过采纳企业投资决策对创新提供方的期望净收益的影响, 研究在快速变化的环境下最优的新兴技术创新速度.假设技术进步状态服从泊松过程,分析了创新采纳企业的3种投资策略.进一步通过比较创新提供方的期望净收益值的变化得到了最优的创新速度.最后,通过数字释例分析了几个重要参数的变化对创新提供企业期望净收益的影响.     

基于技术创新投资决策的实物期权运用

将实物期权的价值评估方式运用到企业技术创新的投资决策中,充分考虑不确定性因素,并建立决策原则,一方面扩展了实物期权在技术创新项目评估价值中的应用,另一方面解决了企业是进行自主技术创新还是外购技术的难题。     

资源松弛视角下企业技术创新策略选择的实物期权模型

组织资源对企业的创新行为具有重要作用.本文通过建立数学模型,采用实物期权分析方法,分析了松弛资源与技术创新策略选择之间的关系.分析结果表明:发掘、利用的松弛资源达到某一临界点时,能对选择基于研发的自主创新策略产生足够的激励;在基于技术引进的技术创新策略越来越难以实现的情况下,正确辨识、发掘、利用松弛资源对于提高组织的自主创新能力和绩效,显得格外重要.     

技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述

实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF) 更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策 问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估 价. 根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一 般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法. 侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物 期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.     

基于实物期权理论的矿产资源最优投资策略模型

矿产资源投资周期长、数额大、且不确定性高,应用传统的净现值方法来评估矿产资源投资价值具有很大的局限性。本文运用实物期权理论,通过建立矿产资源最优投资的策略模型,讨论了在矿产品价格以及汇率存在不确定性的情况下,如何对海外矿产资源价值进行评估的问题,并以国内某海外矿产资源项目为例,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果表明,相对于传统的净现值法,实物期权方法可以更好地考虑未来的不确定性对矿产资源项目估值的影响;汇率风险是对海外矿产资源投资的影响很大;矿产资源丰度差异对矿产资源价值的影响很大。     

高新技术产业化的实物期权分析

在分析高新技术产业化投资决策时,本文考虑了当前技术存在技术升级换代或技术创新的可能,把技术升级换代或技术创新的机会理解为当前投资机会的嵌入期权、当前投资机会则类似于美式复合买入期权,把技术创新的经济效应分为成本节约效应和需求拉动效应,运用实物期权的评估方法,分析了产业化投资的机会价值或期权价值,得到了最优投资决策的临界值;最后分析了市场不确定和技术不确定及技术创新的经济效果对技术产业化的影响.     

技术创新激励的经济学和金融学逻辑

本文从经济学的角度分析认为,技术创新所带来的消费者剩余的增加是技术创新发展的动力;从金融学的角度出发,在分析了用DCF方式进行创新投资分析的不足后,提出了知识资本评估和现实期权评估的方法,对技术创新所带来的未来成长机会的价值进行评价,指出对期权收益的预期构成了创新激励.作者同时也论述了期权价值评估的局限性和陷阱,以及两种评估方法对企业核心能力建设的意义.     

公平偏好和销售努力下供应链期权契约协调

考虑公平中性的供应商将报童类商品售给公平偏好的零售商,商品需求随机且受销售努力影响。刻画了期权契约下零售商关于实物和期权商品采购及销售努力的联合策略,设计了协调供应链的期权契约和促销成本分担机制。研究表明：在确保零售商参与供应链下,无论契约参数如何设计,零售商要么仅采购实物商品,要么同时购买实物商品和期权;且仅当设计的契约能诱导零售商购买期权时,供应链的协调才可能实现。探讨了公平偏好对零售商策略和协调契约的影响,结果表明：零售商越偏好公平,实物商品采购量和努力水平越低,但期权购买量依赖于契约参数之间的关系;协调契约可行域随公平偏好程度递减,但始终存在;在协调契约下,零售商的策略选择与公平偏好程度无关。最后实施了数值分析。     

基于风险管理的软件开发过程模型及其复合实物期权分析

本文在螺旋模型的基础上提出了集成风险管理的软件项目开发过程模型,并运用实物期权理论框架解释和证明了该过程模型的优势.使用变波动率多期复合实物期权模型量化了螺旋开发过程模型中决策灵活性的价值,敏感性分析的结果表明,螺旋模型在风险水平越高的情况下价值越为明显.此外,变波动率复合实物期权的引入很好地刻画了螺旋模型风险驱动盼特征,从而为软件项目开发过程中的动态序列决策提供了参考依据.     

区域创新系统多创新极共生演化动力模型

区域创新系统已逐渐成为学术界和政策制定者关注的热点.本文界定区域内创新活动密集、创新规模较大、创新能力具有代表性、对区域有明显支撑和带动作用的产业创新子系统为区域中的创新极.将区域创新系统视为多创新极共生演化系统,建立基于多创新极共生的区域创新系统概念模型.进而对区域创新系统中创新极间共生演化模式进行分析,建立多创新极...     

Planning innovation

This paper deals with the concept of planning for innovation, using marketing as a basis for that planning. The author claims that marketing really controls the whole operation of planning for innovation, even the details of development and design, because customers not only use the resulting product or service; they pay for it and make everything possible.     

Product innovation input and outcome: moderating effects of the innovation process

In this research, we propose and examine the proposition that product innovation process is a moderator in the “innovation input–outcome” relationship. Innovation input involves R&D spending in relation to sales or R&D intensity. Innovation outcome involves innovation frequency or the number of new products developed and marketed. Innovation process involves the level of integration in organizational mechanisms: functional coordination, tool arrangement, and external relationship. Data from 45 medical and surgical device makers suggest that functional integration is a significant moderator in the innovation input–outcome relationship. External integration has only main effects whereas tool integration has neither main nor interaction effects on innovation frequency. Results could, however, be industry and sample specific. We discuss the implications of these findings for product innovation theory and research.     

Interdependence and innovation

This article analyzes the relationships beyond the firm for their effects upon innovation. It is argued that as technology becomes increasingly complex close interfirm cooperation will be needed. In this study, twenty-two innovations were examined particularly focusing on the interaction between the firm and the environment. It was found that there was a significant correlation between innovation success and the firms' use of other firms. The role of government, universities, and outside inventors on innovation within the firm is also discussed.     

Planning for innovation

This article is based on a presentation given by the authors to the Society for Long Range Planning and reprinted from the NRDC Bulletin. It is concerned with corporate planning in the NRDC and illustrates the philosophy and approach adopted in planning for innovation in an organization whose work is of a longerterm nature than most companies.     

Systems innovation manager

Each year organizations spend a significant amount of money developing new products and processes in an effort to satisfy customer demands and manufacture high-quality products efficiently. Both development processes - product and process, are complex, resource intensive and thrive on innovation. They demand a variety of skills and resources, but in particular, participation among all staff in generating ideas, managing projects and implementing change. There are currently a number of software tools and methods that facilitate change in a systems environment. These range from complex modelling tools to information management tools. The tools have been developed around paradigms, e.g. world class manufacturing, total quality management and business process reengineering. They are often complex, requiring the efforts of skilled designers and managers. Current thinking within a systems environment reflects a more participative and less specialist approach to managing innovation and change. There is a need to create compromise between detailed project engineering and good management practice. This paper introduces a new paradigm centred on good management practice, and identifies the critical issues in systems innovation and change. The paradigm is articulated through a series of change levers and a methodology that guides managers and designers. It is supported by a series of software tools that together bring innovation management to life within the industrial organization.     

Breaking through innovation barriers: Linking effectuation orientation to innovation performance

This study aims to understand how firms overcome market-based innovation barriers and achieve innovation performance using the effectuation orientation construct. In so doing, we provide more nuanced insights into how the combination of mindsets and actions helps firms to overcome barriers. Based on a quantitative research design, data from 157 established organizations show variations in how effectual actions are related to perceived innovation barriers. Among the conclusions we draw from the results is the fact that effectual contingency and effectual means orientation are negatively associated with market-based innovation barriers, which are in turn negatively associated with a firm’s innovation performance. Overall, the empirical results provide new insights into the literature of both innovation and entrepreneurship.     

Exploring the impact of motivations on the attraction of innovation roles in open innovation web-based platforms

Recently, a large number of new innovative enterprises engaged in different competitive markets by promoting innovation both in products and in services through open innovation web-based platforms, which allow for the collaboration of individual users and companies and for so-called crowdsourcing. A key issue concerns the identification of the most important motivations that could attract users with a specific role to proactively participate and contribute to the open and collaborative innovation processes. This article, after highlighting the theoretical background, grounded on large body of psychology and sociology literature on the motivation behind collaboration, discusses the results of the analysis of 26 open innovation web-based platforms based on a multiple research methodology (qualitative empirical study, factor analysis and multi-dimensional scaling). It also discusses the effects of ‘motivational systems’ and platform models on the attraction of the individuals characterised by different innovation roles.     

Some methodological aspects of innovation research

From the policy point of view it is essential to understand the links between firm and management characteristics and the outcome of the firm's innovative endeavours, i.e. success or failure. This is achieved via firm behaviour variables, and the causal links between variables at all three levels (characteristics, behaviour, outcome) are demonstrated using interelated sub-systems of variables derived from empirical data obtained from the SAPPHO results.