COMMUNICATION AND COORDINATION IN A TWO‐STAGE GAME

We study the impact of communication on behavior in a two‐stage coordination game with asymmetric payoffs. We test experimentally whether individuals can avoid a head‐to‐head confrontation by means of coordinated strategies. In particular we analyze whether and how quickly a conflict‐avoidance take turn strategy can emerge. First, our results show that players learn to solve the conflict by choosing opposite options at both stages of the game. Second, many adopt a take turn strategy to sustain coordination over time and alleviate the inequality induced by the asymmetry of payoffs. Third, communication increases the likelihood of conflict resolution regardless of whether communication is unilateral or bilateral. (JEL C91, D74, L15, H71)     

WELL‐INFORMED INTERMEDIARIES IN STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION

A privately informed sender may influence the decision maker through an intermediary who is better informed than him. I assume that the objective sender and intermediary pass on their best information, while the biased ones prefer a particular action but also have reputational concerns. I show that the biased intermediary selectively incorporates the sender's information to push his agenda, and his truth‐telling incentives always decrease in those of the biased sender. Hence, measures making it more costly for the sender to lie worsen the biased intermediary's distortion, and may make the decision maker strictly worse off. (JEL C70, D82, M31)     

LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE IN THE WEAK‐LINK GAME

We investigate the effects of leadership in a four‐player weak‐link game. A weak‐link game is a coordination game with multiple Pareto‐ranked Nash equilibria. Because the more efficient equilibria involve a degree of strategic uncertainty groups typically find it difficult to coordinate on more efficient equilibria. We wanted to see whether leadership by example, in the form of one player acting publicly before the rest of the group, could help groups do better. Our results suggest that leadership can increase efficiency but is far from being a guarantee of success. Specifically, in a significant number of groups we observed successful leadership and increased efficiency, but in most groups efficiency was low despite the efforts of leaders. We did not find any difference between voluntary leaders and leaders that are randomly assigned. (JEL C72, H41)     

REFERENCE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES,LOSS AVERSION,AND LIVE GAME ATTENDANCE

We develop a consumer choice model of live attendance at a sporting event with reference‐dependent preferences. The predictions of the model motivate the “uncertainty of outcome hypothesis” (UOH) as well as fans' desire to see upsets and to simply see the home team win games, depending on the importance of the reference‐dependent preferences and loss aversion. A critical review of previous empirical tests of the UOH reveals significant support for models with reference‐dependent preferences, but less support for the UOH. New empirical evidence from Major League Baseball supports the loss aversion version of the model. (JEL L83, D12)     

DOES MONITORING INCREASE WORK EFFORT? THE RIVALRY WITH TRUST AND LOYALTY

Principal-agent theory suggests that tighter monitoring will raise an agent's work effort and will be applied provided that transaction costs are low. However, when a psychological contract exists between principals and agents, the agents perceive increased monitoring as an indication of distrust, and this induces them to reduce work effort. This "crowding out effect" is likely to dominate when the relationship between principals and agents is personal, while the "disciplining effect" is likely to dominate when the relationship is abstract, as in a competitive market setting. Empirical evidence from neighbouring sciences and from an econometric study supports this proposition.     

ALL‐PAY AUCTIONS WITH A BUY‐PRICE OPTION

This paper studies all‐pay auctions in which there is a buy‐price option for bidders to guarantee purchases at a seller‐specified price. We analyze symmetric increasing bidding equilibria in the first‐ and second‐price all‐pay auctions with the buy‐price option. While the optimal buy‐price in the second price is higher than are those in the first‐price all‐pay auction, both formats maintain the same expected profit. With an endogenous entry process, all‐pay auctions with the buy‐price can attract more consumers and ultimately reach a higher expected profit than does the uniform posted‐price selling mechanism. (JEL D44, L11, L81)     

NON‐MONETARY INCENTIVES AND OPPORTUNISTIC BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM A LABORATORY PUBLIC GOOD GAME

This study reports data from a laboratory experiment that investigates the incentive effect of three distinct social communication schemes on free‐riding behavior. We use performance‐based approval and disapproval ratings and a linear public good game to address the above issues. The treatments vary in terms of subjects' opportunities to anonymously assign (1) only the approval ratings to other group members, (2) only the disapproval ratings to other group members, and (3) either the approval or the disapproval ratings to other group members (but not both to the same group member), after they play a standard linear public good game. Despite the Nash prediction of zero individual contribution in all three treatments, the data show that the disapproval points generate significantly higher contribution than the approval points. The treatment in which subjects could communicate either the approval or the disapproval points produces the highest level of contribution. We discuss the implications that these findings may have for efficient design of organizations. (JEL D03, H41, C72, C92)     

INVESTMENT CHOICE ARCHITECTURE IN TRUST GAMES: WHEN “ALL‐IN” IS NOT ENOUGH

While many economic interactions feature “All‐or‐Nothing” options nudging investors towards going “all‐in,” such designs may unintentionally affect reciprocity. We manipulate the investor's action space in two versions of the “trust game.” In one version investors can invest either “all” their endowment or “nothing.” In the other version, they can invest any amount of the endowment. Consistent with our intentions‐based model, we show that “all‐or‐nothing” designs coax more investment but limit investors' demonstrability of intended trust. As a result, “all‐in” investors are less generously reciprocated than when they can invest any amount, where full investments are a clearer signal of trustworthiness. (JEL C72, C90, C91, D63, D64, L51)     

HOLD‐UP: WITH A VENGEANCE

When contracts are incomplete or unenforceable, inefficient levels of investment may occur because of hold‐up. If individuals care for negative reciprocity, these problems may be reduced, as revenge becomes a credible threat. However, negative reciprocity has this effect only when the investor holds the rights of control of the investment proceeds. We explore this issue analytically, deriving predictions for hold‐up games which differ as regards assignment of rights of control. We also test and support these predictions in an experiment. (JEL C72, C92, D23, L14)     

COMMON‐POOL RESOURCES WITH FREE MOBILITY

The Tragedy of the Commons may get worse if people freely move between different commons. We conducted laboratory experiments with the common‐pool resource setting in which people freely moved between two localities. The localities differed by governing regimes: no regulation or sanctions imposed either exogenously or chosen by majority voting. We find that under free mobility, efficient resource use is attainable with sanctions given that the target harvesting level adjusts to the number of users. People self‐select into different regimes based on their behavioral types. Results are consistent across the United States and Mongolia. (JEL C7, C72, C91, Q2, R12)     

THE STRUCTURE OF SEPARATED WOMEN'S COMMUNICATION WITH THEIR NONPROFESSIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL SOCIAL NETWORKS

This study assessed separated women's communication with their social network members—family, friends, clergy, attorneys and therapists. Women and their social network members were asked about the frequency and timing of their communication pre- and post-separation. Of particular interest to therapists is the finding that women seem to communicate with therapists before they begin to seriously think about separating and after they have made the decision, but not during the decision-making process. Implications of this finding are discussed.     

CONTRACT DESIGN AND SELF‐CONTROL WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

We study optimal contracting by a monopolistic seller of investment goods to a time‐inconsistent consumer and, in doing so, introduce asymmetric information to the model of DellaVigna and Malmendier (2004) . We find (1) the below‐marginal‐cost‐pricing rule may fail for a low‐value consumer; (2) the firm's profit is no longer unaffected by the consumer's short‐run impatience, as the latter is sophisticated. We find that there is an important threshold value of short‐run patience. When the consumer's short‐term patience is below this level, then, as the patience increases, the firm suffers. When the consumer's short‐run patience is above this threshold, then, as it increases, the firm benefits. Finally, we show that unlike monopoly, perfect competition with asymmetric information achieves the first‐best outcome. (JEL D03, D82, D91)     

FISCAL STABILIZATION WITH PARTIAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH

This article examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two‐country framework that allows for partial exchange rate pass‐through. Analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules depend on the degree of pass‐through. Each country unilaterally uses its fiscal instrument to stabilize the costs facing exporters. The welfare effects differ strongly depending on the degree of pass‐through. For high levels, both countries are better off with the fiscal instrument and welfare is closer to the benchmark flex‐price level. For low levels, however, the unilateral equilibrium policy rules lead to high volatility in taxes, and fiscal policy ends up being destabilizing by transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. Because these results stem from strategic considerations by the two countries, the fiscal instrument is not used under policy coordination. In addition, imposing a monetary union increases welfare when pass‐through is low, including the case of local currency pricing. (JEL E52, E63, F41, F42)     

FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS WITH OIL‐SENSITIVE STOCKS

This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil‐sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1‐month‐ahead predictions), using both in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil‐sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no‐change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the 1‐month‐ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based on the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.(JEL G17, Q43, Q47, C53)     

CORPORATE TAX GAMES WITH CROSS‐BORDER EXTERNALITIES FROM PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE

We construct a model of corporate tax competition in which governments also use public infrastructure investment to attract foreign direct investment, thus enhancing their tax bases. In doing so, we allow for cross‐border infrastructural externalities. Depending on the externality, governments are shown to strategically over‐ or underinvest in infrastructure. We also examine how tax cooperation influences investment in infrastructure and find that welfare may be lower under tax cooperation than under tax competition; this is the case when infrastructure is very effective in raising the tax base and generates a large negative cross‐border externality. (JEL F23, H40)     

IS STATUS QUO BIAS CONSISTENT WITH DOWNWARD‐SLOPING DEMAND?

We show that status quo bias combined with downward-sloping demand implies addictive behavior. This result does not depend on transitivity, a complete ordering, or even the existence of a preference relation that rationalizes choices. ( JEL D11, D81)     

AN OPEN‐ECONOMY MODEL WITH MONEY,ENDOGENOUS SEARCH,AND HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS

This paper describes a new monetary open‐economy model where firms have market power due to search frictions in the goods market, and endogenous search effort by consumers mitigates this market power. The optimal inflation rate generally depends positively on the cost of search effort, the cost of firm entry, and the cost of trade. Higher inflation always improves a country's terms‐of‐trade against its trading partners. I also characterize a general class of matching processes which offer a novel approach to modeling firm sales. (JEL D43, E40, F12)     

Interactionism in the Twenty‐First Century: A Letter on Being‐in‐a‐Meaningful‐World

Half a century after its crystallization, interactionism faces new challenges. While elements of this theoretical tradition have percolated into the broader field of sociology, some of its most radical promises have been ignored. This essay provides a blueprint for how to approach interactionism today: not as a historical remnant, but as a living tradition with much to offer contemporary scholarship. Yet to do so, we argue, interactionism must develop some of its core tenets, offering more explicit links both to the sociology of culture, and to other areas in sociology. Focusing on our own experiences and writings, we point to ways in which the careful study of interaction can provide a font of ideas for the broader sociological discipline. We address the significance of affordances, situational webs, group commitment, embeddedness, and disruption, and show how such reorientation can help us better analyze oppression and privilege.     

A Cross‐Linguistic Study of Word‐Mapping in 18‐ to 20‐Month‐Old Infants

This study was designed to examine whether infants acquiring languages that place a differential emphasis on nouns and verbs, focus their attention on motions or objects in the presence of a novel word. An infant‐controlled habituation paradigm was used to teach 18‐ to 20‐month‐old English‐, French‐, and Japanese‐speaking infants’ novel words for events. Infants were habituated to two word‐event pairings and then presented with new combinations that involved a familiar word with a new object or motion, or both. Children could map the novel word to both the object and the motion, despite the differential salience of object and motion words in their native language. A control experiment with no label confirmed that both object and motion changes were detectable.