PENALTY STRUCTURES AND DETERRENCE IN A TWO‐STAGE MODEL: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

Multiperiod models of criminal enforcement based on the standard economic approach of Becker (1968) generally find that the optimal penalty structure is either flat or declining. We present the first experimental test of a two‐stage theoretical model that predicts decreasing penalty structures will yield greater deterrence than increasing penalty structures. This prediction is based on the belief that if the penalty for the first offenses is sufficiently low, the agent should commit the offense and continue to offend if undetected. Our results are consistent with the theoretical prediction that decreasing fine structures are more effective at reducing risky behavior. (JEL C91, K42, K10)     

PANIC AND FEAR:

Fear is the extreme expression of narrow-minded and stupid seriousness which is defeated by laughter. Complete liberty is only possible in the completely fearless world. Mikhail Bakhtin     

MAKING THREATS: MINIMAL DETERRENCE,EXTENDED DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR WARFIGHTING*

This analysis contributes to a political sociology of the arms race by linking the history of U.S. strategic policy with sociological explorations in the organization of power. American nuclear policy illustrates continuity and episodic change. Continuity is expressed in near-universal support among policy-makers of a policy of “extended” rather than “minimal” deterrence. Extended deterrence implies a threat to use nuclear weapons first. The change in nuclear policy is the variation in the determination to modernize the nuclear force structure. That is, the actual commitment to prepare to fight and win a nuclear war oscillates from one period to another. Sustained efforts to improve the nuclear force structure have been concentrated in four periods: the Truman administration between 1947 and 1950, the first two years of the Kennedy administration, the last two years of the Nixon administration, and the last year of the Carter administration to the present. The determination to modernize the nuclear force structure is situated within intra-elite debates between advocates of containment and proponents of rollback, and the installation of new foreign policy projects necessary to adjust the position of the U.S. in the world arena.     

THE COLLECTIVE DECISION PROBLEM, AND A THEORY OF PREFERENCE

This paper generalizes the "strength priority" idea of conventional majority preferences to select stronger preference patterns over weaker reverse preferences that contradict them. This generalization implies the existence of one and only one strength priority ranking that is transitive. Thus the ordering obtained can be viewed as a direct generalization of the traditional majority concept and is offered as a solution to the collective decision problem.     

THE MARGINALIZATION OF FAMILY THERAPY: A HISTORICAL AND CONTINUING PROBLEM

Family therapy, and marital and family problems, are mariginalized in the larger fields of mental and physical health care, which is a misfortune both for family therapy and for other mental health professions. The early family therapists, who had multidisciplinary backgrounds, attempted toestablish a new, nondisciplinary paradigm and also tried to expand the perspectives of the more traditional mental health disciplines. More recently, family therapists have exerted greater effortsto establish marriage and family therapy as a differentiated, autonomous profession. These alternatives each involve dilemmas for the family therapy field. The positive side of becoming a distinctive profession is greater internal strength and clear professional identy; the downside is the threat of increased marginalization in rlation to the other professions, a tendency toward intellectual isolation, and hence restricted opportunities for invigorating new challenges. Family therapy now needs to develop new modes of interchange, collaboration, and selective integration with otherhealth care professions. Such interchange will be beneficial both to family therapy and to other professions.     

COMMON DRIVERS OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM: PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

This article applies principal component analysis to decompose transnational terrorism during 1970–2007 into common (worldwide) and idiosyncratic (country‐specific) factors. Regardless of alternative thresholds and filtering procedures, a single common factor is related to individual countries' transnational terrorist events. Based on a conventional criterion, Lebanon's transnational terrorism is the key common driver of global transnational terrorist incidents. With a more conservative criterion, four additional countries—United States, Germany, Iraq, and the United Kingdom—are core countries in explaining cross‐sectional correlation across 106 countries' transnational terrorism. The analysis shows that there is a marked cross‐sectional dependence among transnational terrorist incidents worldwide. (JEL C38, H56)     

THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTION: CONTINGENCY, EMERGENCE, AND THE REIFICATION OF PROJECTIONS

Here we assess the limitations of "social physics" methods for making predictions of future social conditions in order to contribute to the development of an alternative model of scientific sociology. First, we discuss the complexities inherent in causal analyses of social phenomena, where social organizing principles change historically and causal forces interact to generate outcomes. Second, we analyze the assumptions that underlie prediction in the social sciences by using the population projections of demographers as an illustrative example. Demographers typically make projections assuming the future will be the same as the (recent) past. This approach neglects the possibility of abrupt historical change, contingent events, and emergent social structures. Third, we argue that historical contingency is an essential and necessary consideration in any analysis of the world. A historical materialist approach provides the basis for better formulating nomothetic and idiographic modes of explanation and appreciates the important connections between the two. Sociological inquiry should be an attempt to distinguish between truly nomothetic processes and emergent historical background conditions that only appear nomothetic in a specific historical era. We close with an argument for the importance of developing a sociological science that runs parallel to nonmechanistic approaches in the biological sciences.     

ATTRIBUTIONS AND THE ORIGINS OF PROBLEM GAMBLING

There is a growing concern with identifying the behavioral components of problem gambling. Using clinical data, advocates of a compulsion model indicate that a big win stimulates an unrealistic optimism that eventually leads to destructive gambling. However, drawing upon ethnographic data from a natural gambling group, I demonstrate that a bad beat (a significant monetary loss resulting from a seemingly inexplicable turn of events) often is the catalyst for the development of problem gambling. The attempt to cope with bad beats can disorient perceptions and lead to a continuing pattern of financial loss. Attribution theory provides a useful framework for understanding this process.     

FISCAL FEDERALISM,DECENTRALIZATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

The theoretical literature on fiscal federalism has identified several channels through which government decentralization could affect economic growth. Much of the literature focuses on the efficiency aspects of a decentralized provision of public services, but decentralization may also increase growth by raising the ability of the political system to innovate and carry out reforms. In contrast, some authors argue that decentralization increases corruption and government inefficiency, and thus may diminish growth. Given this theoretical ambiguity, several studies have attempted to identify the effect of decentralization on economic growth empirically over the last two decades. We review and conduct a meta‐analysis of this empirical literature. Based on our analysis, we point out open questions and discuss possible ways to answer them. (JEL H77, O43, C52)     

A NEW MONETARIST MODEL OF FIAT AND E‐MONEY

We develop a dual payment New Monetarist model, where an electronic money (e‐purse) competes with fiat money (cash). The two payment instruments differ in terms of security, cost, and acceptability. Strategic complementarities lead to multiple monetary equilibria. We establish the conditions under which e‐money can coexist with, or replace fiat money, and explain the reasons for the e‐purse failure/success in a few countries. We also compare welfare when one currency or both circulate. When the risk of theft of cash is endogenous, e‐money cannot replace cash entirely; however, low inflation can facilitate the adoption of e‐money in parallel with fiat money. (JEL D83, E40, E50)     

MILITARY SPENDING AND THE GROWTH‐MAXIMIZING ALLOCATION OF PUBLIC CAPITAL: A CROSS‐COUNTRY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

In this paper we present an endogenous growth model to analyze the growth maximizing allocation of public investment among N different types of public capital. Using this general model of public capital formation, we analyze the stability of the long‐run equilibrium and we derive the growth‐maximizing values of the shares of public investment allocated to the different types of public capital, as well as the growth‐maximizing tax rate (amount of total public investment as a share of GDP). Then we proceed with an empirical investigation of the theoretical implication of the model that both the effects of the shares of public investment and the tax rate on the long‐run growth rate are non‐linear, following an inverse U‐shaped pattern. Using data of public investment in infrastructure and military capital formation, we derive empirical estimations that confirm the theoretical implications of the model. (JEL E62, H56, O40).     

SLEEPING WITH THE ENEMY: THE ECONOMIC COST OF INTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS

This paper extends the literature on collective rent‐seeking by introducing the possibility that a competing group may be a subset of another. We develop a model that incorporates the potential for some individuals to be party of both sides of a conflict, which creates interdependence of payoffs. Results indicate that strategic individual behavior, and the resulting rent dissipation, is affected by the relative size of the groups. We conduct an experimental test of the model and find that observed laboratory behavior corresponds well with the game‐theoretic comparative‐static predictions. (JEL C72, C9, Q5, D74)     

"THE NEWS MEDIA, THE PROBLEM FRAME, AND THE PRODUCTION OF FEAR"

The role of the news media in promoting a public discourse of fear is examined. A conceptual model is offered that is based on recent developments in communication formats and frames. The emphasis is on the impact of media forms and frames for guiding the selection and presentation of reports emphasizing fear (e.g., crime, drugs, violence). A "problem frame' compatible with format and entertainment needs is used by the news media as a secular version of a morality play. This promotes messages that resonate fear. The role of the problem frame is described as part of the process for promoting widespread messages stressing fear and danger. Materials from a qualitative content analysis approach, "tracking discourse,' of selected news media illustrate how the focus and content of "fear' shifts over a period of time. Conceptual and methodological implications of this approach are discussed.
The sociological imagination…consists of the capacity to shift from one perspective to another, and in the process to build up an adequate view of a total society and its components.
C. Wright Mills, The Sociological Imagination .     

THE RISE AND (RELATIVE) DECLINE OF GLOBAL WARMING AS A SOCIAL PROBLEM

This article extends recent work on the public arenas approach to social problems (Hilgartner and Bosk 1988) by examining changes in audience receptiveness to claims-making activities. Scientists' claims about global warming failed to attract much public attention until the extraordinary heat and drought of the "summer of '88" created a social scare . That is, environmental claims are most likely to be honored—and accelerate demands in the political arena—when they piggyback on dramatic real-world events. The dynamics of this social problem over time reveal that both demand attenuation and issue redirection processes have diminished global warming's standing as a "celebrity" social problem. Social scares hold potential importance for prospective social problems that revolve around new technologies.     

TEMPTATION‐DRIVEN BEHAVIOR AND TAXATION: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN A LIFE‐CYCLE MODEL

This paper examines the impact of labor and capital income taxes in a stochastic overlapping generations (OLG) economy where agents face borrowing constraints and their behavior is temptation driven. We quantitatively establish that the existence of temptation in preferences may function as an opposing mechanism to modeling choices, such as liquidity constraints, life‐cycle structure, and idiosyncratic earnings risks, that are critical in delivering a positive capital income tax rate. We show that a sufficiently large measure of individuals having self‐control preferences, or alternatively, a sufficiently high cost of exercising self‐control, puts downward pressure on the optimal capital income tax rate. (JEL E21, E62, H55)