THE EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND DISPENSING ON OPIOID MORTALITY

This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use. (JEL I18, K32, H75)     

EMPLOYER AND OCCUPATIONAL INSTABILITY IN TWO COHORTS OF THE NATIONAL LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS

Previous research on trends in employer and occupational stability found evidence of declines in stability among men but contradictory results for women. I provide new insights into these patterns by simultaneously analyzing employer and occupation changes, and by examining a more detailed set of transition types. I show that the patterns for women are quite similar to those of men but are masked by declines in transitions from employment to out of the labor force. Finally, I find that while some of the changes may bring increased opportunities for wage increases, they bring even greater risks of wage losses.     

THE EFFECT OF NONCONTRIBUTORY PENSIONS ON SAVING IN MEXICO

This paper examines the effects of noncontributory pension programs at the federal and state levels on Mexican households' saving patterns using micro data from the Mexican Income and Expenditure Survey. We find that the federal program curtails saving among households whose oldest member is either 18–54 or 65–69 years old, possibly through anticipation effects, a decrease in the longevity risk faced by households, and a redistribution of income between households of different generations. Specifically, these households appear to be reallocating income away from saving into human capital investments, like education and health. Generally, state programs have neither significant effects on household saving, nor does the combination of federal and state programs. Finally, with a few exceptions, noncontributory pensions have no significant impact on the saving of households with members 70 years of age or older—individuals eligible for those pensions, plausibly because of their dissaving stage in the lifecycle. (JEL D14, J26, O12, H55)     

THE CROSS-BORDER SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION

We examine the spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) in Colorado and Washington on neighboring states. We find that RML causes a sharp increase in marijuana possession arrests in border counties of neighboring states relative to nonborder counties in these states. RML has no impact on juvenile marijuana possession arrests but is rather fully concentrated among adults. We find mixed results regarding the source(s) of this change. Using separate data on self-reported marijuana use, we show that RML is accompanied by an increase in use in neighboring states relative to non-neighboring states. However, the increase in arrests following RML is highly concentrated in a few states, which we argue is more consistent with a change in police enforcement near some state borders driving the arrest results. (JEL I12, I18, K14)     

THE EFFECT OF COMPETITION ON CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY

Theory predicts that the combined capacity of two competing utility firms will be greater than the market requires and excess capacity will result. This study tested a set of monopoly and a set of duopoly electric utility firms and found that the outcome predicted by theory did not occur. Even though the duopoly firms did face more downward pressure on capacity utilization than the monopoly firms, the difference was not statistically significant. These results reveal that public policy decisions, predicated upon assumptions that combined capacity of two competing electric firms would be greater than the market requires, should be re-examined.     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSING WEALTH LOSSES ON SPENDING IN THE GREAT RECESSION

We use panel data on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house values that occurred in the Great Recession. Our study complements the existing literature on this topic by relying exclusively on longitudinal micro data on both household wealth and expenditure. Our data span the period 2002–2012, allowing us to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth changes. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be 6 cents per dollar among older American households. (JEL D12, D14, E21)     

THE EFFECT OF A NEGATIVE INCOME TAX ON RISK-TAKING IN THE LABOR MARKET

Theory argues that negative income taxes will increase the economic risks that workers take in the labor market. Data from the income maintenance experiments is analyzed to reveal that those workers subject to a NIT seemed to bear more risks than their control group counterparts. Implications and reservations about this finding are offered.     

THE EFFECT OF UNIT FEES ON THE CONSUMPTION OF QUALITY

A law-of-demand explanation to the Alchian-Allen, or "shipping the good apples out," proposition rests on a change in the relative price of quality when a unit fee is introduced. However, the manner in which quality is consumed is crucial. In some cases, for instance, there is no substitution between the quality attribute and the priced, quantity-measured attribute. This paper shows that in these cases the relative price of quality is unchanged by a unit fee. Nevertheless, while the "unit fee" proposition fails to obtain for individual choice, it does hold in aggregate.     

THE EFFECT OF DIVORCE ON SUICIDE IN DENMARK, 1951–1980

Past research on the effect of marital dissolution on suicide is limited largely to the cultural and institutional framework of the U.S. The present article studies Denmark, a nation with a different social context. A Cochrane-Orcutt iterative regression analysis replicates the American-based pattern for Denmark. The divorce index is more closely associated than the unemployment rate with changes in the suicide rate. A 1% increase in divorce is associated with a 0.32% increase in suicide. Divorce trends also predict the incidence of youth suicide. The study further confirms the generalization that links rapid change in kinship structures to suicide in industrial societies.     

THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL SECURITY

(with an introduction by Daniel L. McFadden) The past and the present processes leading to social security legislation inform expectations regarding the future of social security, and with international comparisons, provide lessons to those who would learn them. (JEL H55)     

THE EFFECTS OF RACE OF THE INTERVIEWER ON MEASURES OF ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION BY BLACKS IN SRC NATIONAL ELECTION STUDIES

This study investigates the effect of the race of the intervieweron self-reported voting, actual voting, and political attitudesof black respondents, based on the SRC/CPS National ElectionStudies (NES) of 1964, 1976, 1978, 1980, and 1984. The impactof race of the interviewer in the NES surveys has not been analyzedpreviously. Over the course of the five studies, the proportionof black respondents who were interviewed by black interviewersdeclined sharply, particularly in the South. Almost all whiterespondents were interviewed by whites. Except for southern blacks in the pre-Voting Rights Act electionof 1964, black nonvoters in the presidential election surveys     

SURVEY EVIDENCE ON EXCESSIVE PUBLIC PESSIMISM ABOUT THE FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Two of the questions in the Surveys of Consumer Attitudes undertakenby the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigandeal with households' expectations about inflation and the changein unemployment. We compare quarterly time series of the meanresponses with the actual behavior of inflation and unemploymentto see whether households are overly optimistic or pessimisticabout the future behavior of inflation and unemployment. Wefind an asymmetry. Over the 21 years of our analysis, on averagethe public is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimisticabout future inflation. However, the public has been significantlytoo pessimistic about the future behavior of unemployment. Theseresults have an important implication for macroeconomic policy.If politicians respond to complaints from the public about inflationand unemployment they will target policy instruments at unemploymentto a greater extent than if the public was not so pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment. The result may be a higherrate of inflation than if the public were not mistakenly pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment.     

THE EFFECT OF TECHNICAL CHANGE ON MARKET STRUCTURE

The paper examines the effects of technical change on market structure. It is found that: 1) the role of independent inventors and small firms is much more important in the early stages of the evolution of a product; 2) the net effect of innovations on entry reverses itself over the product cycle; 3) there is a shift in the importance of various sources of innovation over the product cycle. The two forces which contribute to this result are: 1) a decline in the importance of innovations as technology matures and 2) the proliferation of products adapted to specialized uses.     

SIGNALING IN HIGHER EDUCATION: THE EFFECT OF ACCESS TO ELITE COLLEGES ON CHOICE OF MAJOR

I propose a model of postsecondary education in which major field of study can be used by individuals to signal productivity to employers. Under this signaling model, I show that geographic areas with high access to elite universities result in fewer science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) majors among lower ability students at nonelite colleges. This is distinct from the prediction of a full information model in which access to elite schools should only affect high ability individuals directly. Using data from the National Center for Education Statistics' Baccalaureate & Beyond survey, I find evidence that is consistent with the signaling model prediction, specifically a 2.3–3.7 percentage point or 16%–25% decrease in the probability of choosing a STEM major among lower ability students in areas with greater access to elite colleges. (JEL I21, J24)     

THE EFFECT OF INSURANCE COVERAGE ON PREVENTIVE CARE

Despite the growth in health insurance products that differentially cover preventive care and nonpreventive care, little is known about how preventive care utilization responds to targeted changes in coverage. Using administrative data from a large company, this paper examines the implementation of an insurance benefit design which differentially increased the price of nonpreventive care while decreasing the price of prevention. Leveraging a difference‐in‐differences research strategy, we find that preventive care utilization did not increase and even declined due to the differential price change. This evidence indicates a meaningful negative cross‐price effect, suggesting that nonpreventive care and preventive care are complements. (JEL I13, I11)