WHO PAYS THE BAR TAB? BEER CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES

Few studies explore the linkages between health behaviors and macroeconomic outcomes. This study uses 1971–2007 state‐level data from the United States to estimate the impact of beer consumption on economic growth. We document that beer consumption has negative effects on economic growth measures once the endogeneity of beer consumption is addressed. Our estimates are robust to a range of specification checks. These findings run parallel to a large body of literature documenting substantial social and economic costs stemming from alcohol use. (JEL I1, O4)     

GATEKEEPING IN FIELD PERFORMANCE: IS GRADE INFLATION A GIVEN?

This field note presents the results of a pilot study that explored the use of a new non-numerically rated field performance tool, a vignette matching measure for MSW students. Evaluation of performance in the field has proved to be a difficult task because few if any measures, including competency-based measures, have known levels of reliability and validity. Field instructors rated a sample of 154 students. Over half of the students were rated as exceptional, which may support the long-standing notion that performance ratings are inflated. Implications for social work education and research are discussed.     

WHO QUITS NEXT? FIRM GROWTH IN GROWING ECONOMIES

We document novel facts about the relationship between aggregate growth and firm dynamics using a large set of countries. We argue that firm employment patterns are not necessarily informative about cross‐country differences in aggregate growth because they are induced by changes in the productivity of a firm relative to others. In contrast, aggregate growth is linked to average firm‐level productivity growth and firm age. We formalize this intuition through a tractable model of endogenous aggregate growth and firm dynamics where firms realize positive returns to investment with some probability. We find that cross‐country disparities in this probability can account for two‐thirds of the variation in aggregate growth. (JEL D21, D22, E23, O4)     

CITATIONS OR JOURNAL QUALITY: WHICH IS REWARDED MORE IN THE ACADEMIC LABOR MARKET?

Research quality can be evaluated from citations or from the prestige of journals publishing the research. We relate salary of tenured University of California (UC) economists to their lifetime publications of 5,500 articles and to the 140,000 citations to these articles. Citations hardly affect salary, especially in top‐ranked UC departments where impacts of citations are less than one‐tenth those of journals. In lower ranked departments, and when journal quality is less comprehensively measured, effects of citations on salary increase. If journal quality is just measured by counting articles in journal tiers, apparent effects of citations are overstated. (JEL A14, J44)     

THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE IN HOME‐BASED FAMILY THERAPY: IS IT PREDICTIVE OF OUTCOME?

This study examined the association between the therapeutic alliance in family therapy and changes in symptom distress, interpersonal relationships, and family coping. The participants (N = 81) were members of low socioeconomic status families referred to a university clinic for in-home family therapy. Participants completed the Outcome Questionnaire, Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation, and the Family Therapy Alliance questionnaires. Regression analyses revealed that the therapeutic alliance explained 19% of the variance in symptom distress changes for mother, 55% for fathers, and 39% for adolescents. The implications of these findings for practicing and researching family therapy are presented.     

RISING AUTISM PREVALENCE: REAL OR DISPLACING OTHER MENTAL DISORDERS? EVIDENCE FROM DEMAND FOR AUXILIARY HEALTHCARE WORKERS IN CALIFORNIA

Autism is a development disorder that has increased in prevalence from 0.5 to 14.7 per 1,000 children over 1970–2010. Using annual wages and provider counts from the American Community Survey and information from 21 regional development centers in California, we estimate the labor demand for auxiliary health providers. We focus on this subset of providers because, unlike physicians and psychologists who can diagnose autism, these workers cannot induce their own demand. If the incidence of autism is increasing independently of other mental disorders, then the demand for auxiliary health providers should increase, leading to higher wages and labor supply. Otherwise, the increase in autism diagnosis is merely displacing other mental disorders. We find that a 100% increase in autism cases increases the wages of auxiliary health workers over non‐autism health occupations by 8–11% and the number of providers by 9–14%. Furthermore, we find that one of every three new autism diagnoses is merely supplanting mental retardation diagnoses, but does not displace other mental disorders. These estimates suggest that at least part of the increase in autism diagnoses, about 50–65%, reflects an increase in the true prevalence of the disorder. (JEL L11, J2, J3)     

WHO WINS IN AN ENERGY BOOM? EVIDENCE FROM WAGE RATES AND HOUSING

This article presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the effect of the recent U.S. energy boom on wage rates and housing. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a tighter labor market that benefited local workers. Wage rates also increased substantially across the entire wage rate distribution, although the percentage increase was slightly higher at the bottom of the distribution than at the top. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results suggest that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents. (JEL J23, Q33, R31)     

MARKET POWER AND COLLUSION IN THE OCEAN SHIPPING INDUSTRY: IS A BIGGER CARTEL A BETTER CARTEL?

The regulatory structure of the ocean shipping industry allows carriers to enter into joint pricing agreements (conference agreements) that are free from antitrust scrutiny, and requires freight rates to be published and policed by a government agency. We test whether this regulatory structure leads to the exercise of market power, and identify whether that market power resides with conferences themselves or requires the participation of carriers outside the conference. The results suggest that liner conferences are not particularly effective cartels although some market power may exist in ocean shipping. Market concentration may be a contributing factor to this market power. (JEL L12, L43, L92, K21)     

RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second-best option but rather “rational” responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments. (JEL C63, D8, E32, E6, O4)     

TO DETER OR TO MODERATE? ALLIANCE FORMATION IN CONTESTS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

We consider two players' choice about the formation of an alliance ahead of conflict in a framework with incomplete information about the strength of the potential ally. When deciding on alliance formation, players anticipate the self‐selection of other players and the informational value of own and other players' choices. In the absence of these signaling effects, strong players have an incentive to stand alone, which leads to a separating equilibrium. This separating equilibrium can be destabilized by deception incentives if beliefs are updated on the basis of endogenous alliance formation choices. Weak players may find it attractive to appear strong in order to deter competitors from positive effort choices. Strong players may find it attractive to appear weak in order to give their competitors a false sense of security and then beat them with little effort. Moreover, appearing weak allows players to free‐ride when alliances are formed. (JEL D72, D74)     

FIDDLING WITH VALUE: VIOLINS AS AN INVESTMENT?

This paper measures the returns to investing in violins, using two different datasets. One dataset includes 337 observations on repeat sales of the same violins at auction and at dealer sales starting in the mid‐nineteenth century, and another dataset includes over 2,500 observations on sales of individual violins at auction since 1980. Overall, real returns for the dataset on repeat sales for the period 1850–2008 have been approximately 3.5%. Real returns to the overall portfolio of individual sales since 1980 have been about 3.3%. The price path has been stable with a slight negative correlation to stocks and bonds. (JEL D44, G11, L82)     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT THE IMPLICIT TAX RATES ON LABOR INCOME,CAPITAL INCOME,AND CONSUMPTION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION?

This article analyzes the effects of globalization on implicit tax rates (ITRs) on labor income, capital income, and consumption in the EU15 and Central and Eastern European New Member States (CEE NMS). We find supportive evidence for an increase in the ITR on labor income in the EU15, but no effect on the ITR on capital income. There is evidence of convergence in terms of the ITR on consumption, as countries with higher than average ITR on consumption respond to globalization by decreasing their tax rates. There are important differences among the welfare regimes within the EU15. Social‐democratic countries have decreased the tax burden on capital, but increased that on labor due to globalization. Globalization exerts a pressure to increase taxes on labor income in the conservative and liberal regimes as well. Taxes on consumption decrease in response to globalization in the conservative and social‐democratic regimes. In the CEE NMS, there is no effect of globalization on the ITR on labor and capital income, but we find a negative impact on the ITR on consumption in the CEE NMS with higher than average ITR on consumption. (JEL H23, H24, H25, F19, F21)     

CENTRALIZED OR DECENTRALIZED INFORMATION: WHICH IS BETTER FOR PROVIDING INCENTIVES?

A risk‐neutral ruler must invest in improving the quality of his country's infrastructures. Higher quality infrastructures increase the profitability of capital investment by foreign entrepreneurs. The ruler wishes to maximize the amount of capital investment that flows into the country. Before selecting their investment, entrepreneurs receive a signal on the quality of infrastructures. We consider two cases. First, all entrepreneurs observe the same signal (centralized information). Second, each entrepreneur receives an independently drawn signal (decentralized information). We compare the effectiveness of these two scenarios for incentivizing the ruler. We find remarkably clear‐cut results. When the entrepreneurs’ investments are strategic complements, centralized information does a better job in incentivizing the ruler. The opposite holds when investments are strategic substitutes. This may help understand the role of media, rating agencies, public announcements, and ambiguity. (JEL D82, D62)     

THE POT RUSH: IS LEGALIZED MARIJUANA A POSITIVE LOCAL AMENITY?

This paper examines the amenity value of legalized marijuana by analyzing the impact of marijuana legalization on migration to Colorado. Colorado is the pioneering state in this area having legalized medical marijuana in 2000 and recreational marijuana in 2012. We test whether potential migrants to Colorado view legalized marijuana as a positive or negative local amenity. We use the synthetic control methodology to examine in- and out-migration to/from Colorado versus migration to/from counterfactual versions of Colorado that have not legalized marijuana. We find strong evidence that potential migrants view legalized marijuana as a positive amenity with in-migration significantly higher in Colorado compared with synthetic-Colorado after the writing of the Ogden memo in 2009 that effectively allowed state laws already in place to be activated, and additionally after marijuana was legalized in 2013 for recreational use. When we employ permutation methods to assess the statistical likelihood of our results given our sample, we find that Colorado is a clear and significant outlier. We find no evidence for changes in out-migration from Colorado suggesting that marijuana legalization did not change the equilibrium for individuals already living in the state. (JEL I18, R23, K42, C22)     

“SOCIOECONOMIC DIVERSITY IS OVERRATED”: WHITE ATTITUDES ON RACE AND CLASS IN A RACIALLY INTEGRATED NEIGHBORHOOD

This article investigates homeowners' perceptions of race and class within a racially integrated neighborhood in Baltimore, Maryland. Forty-two semi-structured interviews were completed with 59 white homeowners between September 2005 and September 2006. Adding a social class component to Bonilla-Silva's (2006 ——— . 2006 . Racism Without Racists: Color-Blind Racism and the Persistence of Racial Inequality in the United States, , 2nd edition . Lanham , MD : Rowman & Littlefield . [Google Scholar]) color-blind racism perspective, I ask if white homeowners in a racially-integrated neighborhood accept a color-blind worldview, or if they have an alternate framework for understanding race. Akin to O'Brien's antiracists (2001 Bonilla-Silva , Eduardo. 2001 . White Supremacy and Racism in the Post-Civil Rights Era . Boulder , CO : Lynne Rienner Publishers . [Google Scholar]), there was a range of rejection of color-blindness, from selective to reflexive race cognizance. Most homeowners recognized the institutional basis of racial inequality and their own white privilege. However, many conflated race and class and argued that it was really class differences that caused racial differences. While many supported more racial integration, most rejected class integration in the neighborhood. This paradoxical set of attitudes will most likely continue to be an obstacle to the maintenance of racially integrated neighborhoods.     

CITIZEN PARTICIPATION IN NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT: DOES REPRESENTATIVENESS MATTER?

ABSTRACT

The main focus of this research is on the changing role of citizen participation in natural resource management. Evidence suggests that citizens who participate in the management of natural resources are not representative of stakeholders who are impacted by the decisions being made. In an effort to assess the representativeness of citizen participation, we conducted telephone surveys of “residents” who live in the watershed of Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Norris Reservoir and “participants” in TVA's Norris Public Lands Plan. As hypothesized, we found participants to be older, disproportionately male, more educated, and more affluent, and as having higher levels of political efficacy and trust in government than residents. Exploratory analyses revealed many other significant differences between participants and residents. We conclude by suggesting that increased and representative citizen participation is necessary for the successful implementation of an ecosystem-based approach and to address problems associated with non-point source pollution.