BANKS,FREE BANKS,AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

The “Federalist financial revolution” may have jump‐started the U.S. economy into modern growth, but the Free Banking System (1837–1862) did not play a direct role in sustaining it. Despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions, we find in county‐level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth. The result is not just a symptom of the era, as state‐chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization. (JEL G21, N21, O43)     

LEGISLATIVE TURNOVER,FISCAL POLICY,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. STATE LEGISLATURES

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short‐sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long‐run distortions in the economy, reducing long‐term economic growth. (JEL H72, H73, H76)     

COMPETITION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: THE CASE OF THE U.S. TELEPHONE INDUSTRY

The article focuses on the relation of competition to changes in productivity. Specifically, it compares the experience of AT&T Long Lines, operating in an increasingly competitive market, with that of eight local telephone monopolies. Both the estimation of total factor productivity growth and the analysis of shifts in cost functions show a markedly faster change in efficiency in the effectively competitive market than for the local monopolies. The article also examines three channels through which competition produces differential changes in efficiency. The results support, by implication, a policy of permitting entry and increasing competition in local telephone markets. ( JEL L11, L96)     

WAR AND PESTILENCE AS LABOR MARKET SHOCKS: U.S. MANUFACTURING WAGE GROWTH 1914–1919

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War I on wage growth in the manufacturing sector of U.S. states and cities from 1914–1919. The hypothesis is that both events decreased manufacturing labor supply, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and wages. The results reveal that states and cities having had greater influenza mortalities experienced higher wage growth—roughly 2–3 percentage points for a 10% change in per capita mortalities. World War I combat mortalities also had a positive, but smaller, effect on wage growth. ( JEL N62, N32, N92, I12)     

U.S. COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING THROUGH 2008:Q4: NEW EVIDENCE FROM GROSS CREDIT FLOWS

What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. (JEL E44, E51, G21)     

UNIONS, PLANTS, JOBS, AND WORKERS

The relationship between unions and their members is an important, yet neglected, subject in recent studies of the sociology of work. This study develops and tests a theory of union satisfaction and participation that combines recent research in the sociology of work with previous explanations of union satisfaction and participation provided by industrial relations researchers, in an attempt to understand the relationship between unions, plants, jobs, and workers in U.S. manufacturing industries. This theory predicts that union members will be satisfied with their unions and participate more in them if there are extensive ties between workers, employers, and unions. These ties stem from the focus of labor/management relations in particular, and class struggles in general, on market outcomes and the historical linkage of union membership with employment in the United States. The theory also predicts that unions them-selves act as ties to specific work settings and that union participation is a forum for voicing dissatisfaction with specific characteristics of workers' jobs. Testing these predictions is complicated by contradictory nature of the structure and organization of work in advanced industrial societies. The analysis provides qualified support for this theory, with data drawn from more unions, plants, and union members than have been used to date. In addition to discussing modifications to the theory and analysis presented here, the study includes a discussion of its implications for the future of unionization and the organization of work, in light of declines in union membership, increased efforts to decertify unions and resist union organizing efforts, and deindustrialization in the United States.     

TRADING UNCERTAINTY, ENFORCEMENT AND LABOR UNIONS

It is shown that when contracts can be perfectly enforced, trading uncertainty leads to discrimination among workers with the same skills and experience. In this case anti-discrimination laws lead to inefficiencies. In the absence of perfect enforcement, anti-discrimination practices may be used as enforcement devices and need not lead to inefficiencies. In particular, firms may wish to precommit to an anti-discrimination policy, say by inviting in a labor union, in order to offer credible insurance to its workers. This leads to an equilibrium in which union workers get a higher wage than non-union workers, but unions do not have monopoly power.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF U.S. STATE ECONOMIC GROWTH: A LESS EXTREME BOUNDS ANALYSIS

This study investigates U.S. state economic growth from 1970 to 1999. I innovate on previous studies by developing a new approach for addressing "model uncertainty" issues associated with estimating growth equations. My approach borrows from the "extreme bounds analysis" approach of Leamer while also addressing concerns raised by Granger and Uhlig, Sala-i-Martin, and others that not all specifications are equally likely to be true. I then apply this approach to identify "robust" determinants of state economic growth. My analysis confirms the importance of productivity characteristics of the labor force and industrial composition of a state's economy. I also find that policy variables such as (1) size and structure of government and (2) taxation are robust and economically important determinants of state economic growth. ( JEL 040, 051, H10, H20, H30, H70, R11, R58, C51)     

FEAR,ANGER, AND CREDIT. ON BANK ROBBERIES AND LOAN CONDITIONS

We study the impact of emotions on real-world decisions made by loan officers by analyzing the loan conditions of loans granted immediately after a bank branch robbery. We find significant differences between the conditions of loans granted after a robbery and changes in loan conditions that occur contemporaneously at unaffected branches. In general, loan officers seem to adopt so-called avoidance behavior. In accordance with the literature on posttraumatic stress, their avoidance behavior is halved within 2 weeks following the robbery and the effect further varies depending on the presence, or absence, of a firearm during the robbery. (JEL G02, G2)     

MARKET STRUCTURE AND PRICE-COST MARGINS:A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF U.K. AND U.S. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

This paper reports a comparative study of market structure- performance relations in U. K. and U.S. manufacturing indus- tries. The multivariate regression results support the hypothesis of homogeneity of the links between market structure and the price-cost margin dimension of performance in manufacturing industries of the two countries. Furthermore, the results indicate that the differences in the legal and cultural environments of U.K. and U.S. industries do not significantly affect the pattern of similarity in the links.     

U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND THE DOLLAR

This paper examines the connection between U.S. military expenditure and the dollar-mark real exchange rate. Quarterly data for the period 1951.1–1986.3 are used to show that there exists a significant relationship linking real exchange rate, real military spending, and real GNP. The conclusion is based on evidence that these three variables are cointegrated.     

TRADE,GEOGRAPHY AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN U.S. MANUFACTURING

A number of studies have suggested that countries (or regions) with access to larger markets have higher wages. In this paper, we examine whether access to larger markets affects skilled and unskilled workers differently. We develop a model relating two key measures of market size, market and supplier access, to industry value added prices. We then estimate the effects of growth in these measures on factor returns in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find that growth in these measures can explain around 5% of the rise in the skill premium over the sample period. (JEL F12, F16, L60)     

BIRTHS, DEATHS, AND MARRIAGES IN THE U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKING INDUSTRY

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminated with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. This article examines whether deregulation affected new charter (birth), failure (death), and merger (marriage) rates of U.S. commercial banks from 1978 to 2004 after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find strong evidence that intrastate and interstate deregulation stimulated marriages, but not births or deaths. Finally, temporal causality tests show that mergers temporally lead to new charters and that failures lead to mergers (a demonstration effect) . ( JEL G21, L51)     

ARM-BREAKING, CONSUMER CREDIT AND PERSONAL BANKRUPTCY

The consumer credit transaction is analyzed as a contract which provides insurance as well as present consumption for the borrower. Creditors' remedies such as "arm-breaking" are shown to facilitate provision of insurance (forgiveness of debts) when lenders cannot monitor outcomes. Alternatively, if outcomes are observable but lenders do not ex ante know the risk associated with each borrower, the market may generate an excessive amount of arm-breaking and agreements to forgo discharge following bankruptcy as low risk borrowers signal their characteristics, suggesting that government limitations on such provisions might be efficient. The secured credit transaction is shown to be a complex contract which attempts to provide efficient repayment, seller incentives for performance and mitigation following default, and insurance for the borrower. Garnishment and discharge of debts following bankruptcy are also considered.     

PARTY AFFILIATION AND PUBLIC SPENDING: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. GOVERNORS

This paper investigates whether the party affiliation of governors (Democrat or Republican) has an impact on the allocation of state expenditures. Exploiting gubernatorial election results from 1960 to 2012 and a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), we find that Democratic governors allocate a larger share of their budget to health/hospitals and education sectors. We find no significant impact of the political party of governors on total spending, only on the allocation of funds. The results are robust to a wide range of controls and model specifications. (JEL D72, H75, H72)     

BONDING AND BRIDGING ACTIVITIES OF U.S. PENTECOSTALS

A growing body of literature weighs the influence of religion on civic life. Largely missing from prior analysis is Pentecostals. With novel religious beliefs and practices, Pentecostals might be expected to focus more on in-group bonding activities than out-group bridging activities. We test this expectation using national data from the 2005 Baylor Religion Survey. We contrast three measures of Pentecostalism: denominational affiliation, speaking in tongues at a place of worship, and self-described Pentecostal/charismatic identity. Results affirm high rates of bonding activity (church attendance and other congregation activity) for contemporary Pentecostals. Results for Pentecostal bridging are more complicated. People in Pentecostal denominations and those who speak in tongues participate less in community organizations and politics. However, this is more a function of social class and general conservatism than religious culture or sense of identity. Comparable to other conservative Protestants, the vitality of Pentecostal groups seems no impediment to democratic society.     

BETWEEN SCYLLA AND CHARYBDIS: INCOME DISTRIBUTION,CONSUMER CREDIT,AND BUSINESS CYCLES

We introduce a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and an aggregate banking sector in order to analyze the impact of rising income inequality under different credit scenarios. Growing inequality produces debt‐led consumption boom dynamics when the banking sector is characterized by a lower capital requirement and a higher willingness to lend. Instead, when inequality rises but the banking sector is highly regulated, aggregate demand and output fall. Our results also yield new insights on the appropriate fiscal policy reaction to stabilize the economy: acting on the progressivity of the tax system seems more effective than a proactive countercyclical fiscal policy. (JEL C63, D31, E62, G01)     

FORECASTING U.S. MORTALITY:

This article compares two methodologies for modeling and forecasting statistical time series models of demographic processes: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and structural time series analysis. The Lee-Carter method is used to construct nonlinear demographic models of U.S. mortality rates for the total population, gender, and race and gender combined. Single time varying parameters of k, the index of mortality, are derived from these model and fitted and forecasted using the two methodologies. Forecasts of life expectancy at birth, e₀, are generated from these indexes of k. Results show marginal differences in fit and forecasts between the two statistical approaches with a slight advantage to structural models. Stability across models for both methodologies offers support for the robustness of this approach to demographic forecasting.