Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade

This study aims to revisit the effectiveness of using currency devaluation as a policy tool to improve trade balance by estimating the exchange rate elasticities of services trade between the US and rest of the world with quarterly disaggregated services trade data from 1999 to 2015. Empirical results reveal that the impacts of currency devaluation on individual services trade are mixed and largely depend on the nature of services. Using currency devaluation to raise export services trade and reduce import services trade seems to be more effective in the long-run but not in the short-run. It is interesting to note that some individual services trades are insensitive to exchange rate changes. The estimates also reveal that most categories of services trade are income elastic and economic growth plays a key role in determining the imports and exports of services trade.     

The Eurasian Economic Union: Development Prospects and Possible Obstacles

This article analyzes the development prospects and problems for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It examines issues of integration within the EAEU, as well as interactions with other countries, both CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and non-CIS. The main problem of integration within the EAEU is the dominance of redistributive motives over productive ones. This article assesses the extent of Russian oil and gas transfers to EAEU partners and the impact of tax maneuvers on their size. It shows that the creation of mechanisms for redistributing profits within the EAEU will allow a positive economic effect to materialize from free trade agreements with non-CIS countries. The article assesses the risks for the EAEU related to Russia’s introduction of a unilateral ban on food imports from countries on the sanctions list and to the possible establishment of tariffs on trade with Ukraine.     

The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers’ incomes in China

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the Doha trade proposals (those of the USA, EU and G20) on agricultural production and incomes of China's farmers by region and income group. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the proposed Doha trade liberalizations on households both at the national and regional levels. According to the results of the model, the impacts of a Doha Round agreement on households differ significantly from those of China's WTO accession. China's economy would benefit from the trade liberalization associated with the Doha Round. The overall impacts, however, are relatively minor. Although farmers will benefit at the national level, the gains among farmers vary largely by income group and province. Also, the impacts on households that produce different types of crops differ.     

Asymmetric price rigidity and the optimal interest rate defense of the exchange rate: Some evidence for the US

This paper analyses the optimal monetary policy under incomplete exchange rate pass-through and asymmetric price rigidity. In a general equilibrium sticky price model of an open economy we find that the optimal interest rate rule is to respond to all types of shocks in an economy: real exchange rate shocks, supply shocks and demand shocks. We concentrate our analysis on the interest rate defense of the currency. We claim that the extent of the optimal response of the interest rate to exchange rate shocks depends positively on the degree of pass-through and negatively on price rigidity. Therefore, in the presence of asymmetric price rigidity, the optimal monetary policy should be non-linear, and the interest rate should be adjusted more in case of depreciation of the domestic currency than in case of its appreciation by the same magnitude due to higher downward price rigidity and lower downward pass-through, which are observed empirically. We test this prediction for the US economy and find that the US monetary policy is asymmetric indeed with higher reaction of the interest rate to depreciations of US dollar than to appreciations of the same size.     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排,向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场,一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施,一个恰当的名义锚,监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don’t work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of “New Structuralists”, exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries.     

我国汉语国际推广教育问题探析

全球化背景下,国家间的关系日益密切,软实力越来越成为决定一国国际影响力的关键因素。作为文化“走出去”战略的重要组成部分,汉语国际推广与我国的国际关系和国际教育发展密切相关。我国汉语推广的国际教育发展还处于初级阶段,仍存在着招生宣传方式单一、师资力量不足、教学资源配置不均衡等问题,这严重制约了我国汉语国际推广的发展。汉语推广的国际教育应积极建立双向机制,调整教育管理模式,培养教育师资队伍,着力推进汉语推广国际教育的发展。     

Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil

Based on the argument that monetary policy credibility can reduce the fear of floating (FF), we analyze this hypothesis for Brazil. Since expectations play a key role under Inflation Targeting, we also analyze whether credibility can affect the expectations of financial markets about the FF of the Central Bank. The results show credibility can reduce the FF, and financial markets expect less intervention by the Central Bank when credibility is higher. Thus, policymakers must pay attention to the credibility of their policies, otherwise they may be misinterpreted regarding both the goals they pursue and how they conduct monetary policy.     

Imperfect competition,border protection and consumer boycott: The future of the dairy industry in Israel

Recent increases in prices of dairy products in Israel led to consumer unrest and boycotts against dairy producers during the summer of 2011. The Israeli dairy industry is highly distorted with production quotas and administered prices for raw milk, tariff rate quotas and an oligopoly in dairy processing. Since the issue of self-sufficiency and food security is at the top of Israel's national priorities, the future of the dairy industry is generating heated debate. Thus, we use a general equilibrium model to estimate the effects associated with particular alternative policies actually discussed to liberalize the Israeli dairy industry.     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

中国在国际气候谈判中的身份定位及其对国际气候制度的建构

从国际气候谈判开启至今,中国参与国际气候谈判的立场和态度发生了较大程度的调整和变化,经历了"积极被动的发展中国家"、"谨慎保守的低收入发展中国家"和"负责任的发展中大国"三种身份定位。本文拟从国际政治社会理论的角度出发,探讨国际气候谈判过程中中国身份定位的变化以及这种变化如何作用于国际气候制度的建构,并在此基础上思考后续国际气候谈判中中国的身份定位及积极作为。     

中巴自贸区服务贸易开放水平评估、提升方向及对策建议

借鉴卡尔斯坦·菲恩克和马丁·莫林尤沃的研究方法,本文对中巴自贸区服务贸易开放水平进行了测度,结果显示中巴服务贸易协定分别是中、巴对外服务开放程度最高的区域服务贸易安排。在中巴服务贸易协定中,中巴给予彼此的＂GATS＋＂承诺相对集中于＂商业＂、＂通讯＂和＂运输＂部门,且＂GATS＋＂承诺多表现于在服务提供模式3（多以＂允许外资拥有更多股权＂的形式出现）。从中巴服务部门竞争力对比状况和各自服务贸易开放实践视角出发,本文对中巴服务贸易协定下,中巴服务贸易进一步深入开放方向进行了研判,结果表明中方会在＂建筑＂、＂金融＂、＂旅游＂和＂商业＂部门,巴方会在＂通讯＂、＂商业＂和＂运输＂部门优先做出更深入承诺。最后,本文给出了一系列对策建议。     

The impact of Chinese maternal and child healthcare institutions on maternal and child health

Although maternal and child health have experienced a continuous improvement in past decades, it is still behind the Millennium Development Goals. This research studies the influence of maternal and child health care institution (MCHCI), which occupies a special position in China’s healthcare field but its impacts on the health of women and children have not been received a plausible attention so far. By using Chinese provincial data, the empirical results show that the increase in MCHCI beds diminishes the incidence and mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in China. Additionally, the rise in MCHCI beds does not correspond to the increase in health expenditure per capita. Our findings reveal the profound significance of MCHCI in promoting social welfare in China, and provide policy implications for other low and middle-income countries to further improve both maternal and child health.     

State socialism and the welfare state: a critique of two conventional paradigms

The post–war development of industrialised nations has been led by the idea of a welfare state. On the other hand, research on current and former communist states is still dominated by an age–old notion of 'state socialism'. This article provides a critical assessment of the two conventional paradigms by reviewing their implications within the historical and international contexts. By tracing its ideological roots and contrasting with the changing reality, it is argued that state socialism was misused in representing Marxist guidelines and is outdated in characterising the reforming socialist societies. By emphasising the experience of developing nations the article further challenges the welfare state as the paradigm for studying the general direction of a modern society. Attention is drawn to the study of a general public policy, and the economic state model is revisited for conceptualising the experience of a non–welfare state nation such as China.     

Social policy and embedded evaluation: Assessing the impact of a food insecurity project in the United Kingdom

Social policy making needs to involve robust evaluation to assess its impact. In this article, a social policy intervention focused on tackling food insecurity amongst vulnerable people is examined and the benefits and challenges of using an embedded approach to evaluation are considered. Food insecurity is defined as not always having the economic, social, and physical resources to ensure a sufficient supply of nutritionally appropriate food. Evidence suggests that food insecurity in the United Kingdom is increasing in the context of long-term poverty, austerity, insecure employment, rising living costs, low pay, and cuts to welfare and public services. An embedded evaluation was conducted involving interviews with the intervention participants and observations of a series of cooking and food budgeting classes. The findings suggest that the classes had a positive impact on many of the participants, who felt more confident about cooking and valued the shared experience. However, given the acute problems facing many of the participants including long-term poverty, policies aimed at tackling food insecurity need to go beyond cooking and food budgeting skills. The embedded evaluation approach contributed towards the overall impact of the intervention by providing insights that led to changes as part of an iterative process during the intervention rather than in the form of a final report after its completion. An embedded evaluation-based approach can be resource intensive, and the role of the evaluators can present challenges, but it can help to bridge the gap between intervention design, delivery, and social change.     

Economic,social and environmental effects of reducing dairy methane emissions through market-based policies: An application of the Livestock Policy Simulation Model

Several technological approaches to mitigate methane dairy emissions are available; however, assuming that technological change alone generates the necessary incentives to accelerate emissions reduction is risky. Without adequate market signals, producers might choose not to use the technologies available or to the desired extent. Addressing this economic problem requires altering producers’ and consumers’ behaviour by introducing incentives or constraints. Employing the livestock policy simulation model, we examine the effects of reducing methane emissions in the dairy sector under different market-based policy instruments. We used the primary dairy sector in Uruguay as a case study. The results show that a policy mix combining a set of market-based instruments can be more effective than a single policy instrument alone.     

FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players

How can countries successfully engage in global production networks? We provide a Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the impact of FDI on global production networks in Textiles, Chemicals, Electronics and Machinery, dividing the world economy in six regions (China, East Asia, Japan, EU28, the U.S. and the group of Emerging and Developing Economies). Interestingly for the policy maker, although the four sectors have contrasting production technologies, their Chinese exports and imports still follow a similar trend: East Asia and Japan are Chinese main intermediate suppliers while the US, Europe and the Emerging and Developing Economies play more the role of final markets. FDI inflows have benefitted China and we quantify by how much they have raised Chinese wages, GDP, national income and export competitiveness. By contrast, being an intermediate supplier or playing mostly the role of big final market in the network is not enough to succeed in your integration with China. The extent of the (positive or negative) effects is very much related to whether the structure of production (i.e., sectors’ weight in GDP) of the different economies is similar to (and therefore more easily crowded out by) Chinese booming sectors.