当代劳动力参与水平和模式变动研究

文章以世界劳工组织和联合国发布的劳动力参与相关数据为基础,应用STATA面板数据模型和AMOS结构方程模型,对当代分性别劳动力参与水平和模式变动趋势及其影响因素进行分析。研究发现,当代男性劳动力参与率持续降低,女性劳动力参与率先升后降。转变的基本规律是向劳动力参与时间不断缩短,学习和自由发展时间不断延长的方向发展。经济、教育、低龄组的劳动力参与率和人口年龄结构对这一转变有重要影响。加强学习型社会建设,普遍提高受教育年限,降低低龄组、次低龄组的劳动力参与率,在增加劳动力数量、质量供给方面具有根本性作用。     

The effects of economic development and world-system on occupational sex segregation

In order to better integrate women's subordinate status into the world system, the author examined how processes of the new international division of labor and consequent underdevelopment affect women's overall economic status and occupational sex segregation (OSS). For the empirical test, panel regression analyses were used with 71 crossnational cases for the periods of 1960-80 and 1970-80. The results of the analyses clearly show that world-system position and economic development proved to have important consequences for OSS. However, the results unexpectedly showed a negative relation for multinational corporation dependency, which is stronger for the longer term period than for the shorter term. Of the intervening variables, the effects of female labor force participation show a negative effect on OSS, and those of the female share of the service sector show a strong positive effect on OSS at either point in time. Fertility did not show any significant effects on OSS.     

Economic Development,Gender Inequality,and Demographic Outcomes: Evidence from India

This article examines the determinants of fertility, child mortality, and female disadvantage in child survival in India, using a district‐level panel data set linking 1981 and 1991 censuses. The results question the dominant view that variables directly related to women's agency (specifically, the female literacy rate and the female labor force participation rate) have played the crucial roles here. Instead, variables reflecting the general level of development and modernization are shown to have had the greatest effect in reducing fertility and child mortality during the period of the study. Both economic development and women's agency are seen to have had significant effects in reducing the female disadvantage in child survival. The results suggest, however, that with continued economic development, the two women's agency variables lose their significance in influencing this disadvantage. The policy implications of these findings are considered.     

Total fertility rate,women's education,and women's work: What are the relationships?

This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on seventy-one countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered. The first model regresses five variables on total fertility rate: per capita Cross National Product (GNP), percentage of women ages 15 to 19 who are married, female life expectancy at birth, calories available as a percentage of need, and percentage of married couples using contraception. The second model includes two additional regressors: the average number of years of schooling for women, and the percentage of women in the labor force. These seven variables are regressed on total fertility rate. Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate.     

Economic and demographic effects on working women in Latin America

The paper uses historical census data and the latest household surveys to investigate the evolution of female employment in Latin America, the effect of demographic factors on female labor force participation, and the reasons for the observed male-female gap in labor earnings. The findings show that, though women's labor force participation in Latin America has indeed increased despite the adverse economic conditions of the last two decades, marriage and fertility still exercise a large negative effect on women's labor supply. On average in the 15 countries studied, marriage reduces the probability that a woman would work by half, and each child by a further 3–5% These effects result in age-participation profiles that decrease with age although the econometric analysis suggests that, as women get older, they have a ceteris paribus greater probability to seek employment. In all the countries studied women are rewarded less than men and gender differences in human capital characteristics cannot account for the observed earnings differential. The paper discusses the significance of the findings for potential policies to assist women, especially in the areas of education and fertility, and also suggests the direction of further reserarch.The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank and its affiliated organisations.     

Individual mobility,population growth and labor force participation

Trends in labor force participation rates and the age of retirement are shown to be important determinants of upward mobility. Reductions in age specific participation rates increase the speed of movement through the employment hierarchy. In conjunction with economic development, the falling labor force participation of older men acts to offset the adverse effects of slowing population growth on promotional prospects. These conclusions are reached by extending a model of employment status developed by Keyfitz to limit employment competition to only those actually in the labor force.     

An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends

This study is based on time series data from 1947–1977 on fertility and female labor force participation, and examines (a) the effects of male relative income and female earnings on the level and timing of fertility and female labor force participation, and (b) the relative importance of variations in relative income and female wage rates in explaining the fluctuations in both fertility and female labor supply. The results suggest that relative income exerts a significant positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on female work effort. However, female wage rates appear to be the dominant factor in explaining variations in fertility and female labor force participation over the past two decades, with increases in female earnings leading to both depressed fertility and increased labor force participation of women.     

Trade Liberalization And Women’s Integration Into National Labor Markets: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization and the risks associated with participation in the global trading system on women’s integration into national labor markets. Using data from 1970 to 1995, I identify two global determinants of the female share of national labor markets: trade openness and transnational corporate penetration. Several local predictors of women’s labor force participation are also identified. While a cross-sectional analysis indicates that women have been pulled into national labor markets as a result of neo-liberal economic reforms, more dynamic models show that these same forces can also lead to a preference for male, rather than female labor. Moreover, the analyses specify that the effects of trade openness and trade risk on female labor force participation are determined by position in the world-system and region. These results illustrate that arguments about the relationship between globalization and the feminization of the labor force, are too simplistic and neglect to account for the diverse consequences of global economic expansion on gender relations.     

Restructuring of the US Meat Processing Industry and New Hispanic Migrant Destinations

Findings from the 2000 US Census indicate high rates of Hispanic population increase beyond urban areas and traditional immigrant‐receiving states. The diversity of new destinations raises questions about forces attracting migrants to rural areas and links between economic structural change and Hispanic population growth. Our conceptual framework applies dual labor market theory to the meat processing industry, a sector whose growing Hispanic labor force offers an illustrative case study for analyzing how labor demand influences demographic change. We document the industry's consolidation, concentration, increased demand for low‐skilled labor, and changing labor force composition over three decades. We then position meat processing within a broader analysis that models nonmetropolitan county Hispanic population growth between 1980 and 2000 as a function of changes in industrial sector employment share and nonmetro county economic and demographic indicators. We find that growth in meat processing employment exhibits the largest positive coefficient increase in nonmetro Hispanic population growth over two decades and the largest impact of all sectors by 2000.     

Determinants of Female Labor Force Participation in South Korea: Tracing out the U-shaped Curve by Economic Growth

This paper attempts to investigate the structural relationship between economic growth and female labor force participation in Korea. The recurring issue of whether women’s integration to the society is critical becomes salient once again, but with little consideration of its meaning and potential consequences. It extends further the research theme that the degree of female labor force participation relies on the extent to which social context is reflected in the time-series data for the country from 1980 to 2014. While multiple theories are being espoused in this research, effects traced across levels of analysis and over substantial temporality lead up to a system of dynamic causal relationships, using contingency table and log-linear analysis. It appears to be supported in the regression analysis that the country travels through the U-shaped curve over time whereas income inequality displays greater impact on women’s employment. The empirical estimates of social transformation credit this trend to family structure and wife’s education, as the second pivot that, at least, noneconomic causal factors are also operative.     

中国区域间人口红利差异分解及解释——基于数据包络分析模型

劳动力资源作为经济发展的关键要素,其配置效率差异加剧了中国区域间经济发展的失衡。文章从人均经济产出公式出发,构建了一个涵盖人力资本积累和物质资本积累影响因素的人口红利实现模型,并采用数据包络分析法对2006～2010年中国各地区人口红利实现的相对效率进行测度与分解,利用Tobit模型对其技术效率和规模效率进行解释。结果发现,中国东部地区人口红利实现效率明显高于中西部地区,从人口红利实现的技术效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、劳动参与水平的影响,影响系数分别为0.0102和0.0149;从人口红利实现的规模效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、资本积累的产业环境、物质资本形成效应的影响,影响系数分别为0.1549、0.1234和0.0371。文章最后提出了相关政策建议。     

On the Compatibility of Islam and Gender Equality

Although the Muslim world is sometimes depicted as a homogeneous civilization lacking democracy and gender equality, Muslim countries show tremendous economic, political and cultural variation. In this paper, this variation is used to gain insight into the determinants of women’s labor market participation (LMP) in the Muslim world. We use data on 45 Muslim countries and apply SEM models to determine effects of modernization, democracy, cultural background, and state Islamization on women’s participation in the formal economy (absolute LMP) and on the share of women in the labor force (relative LMP). Women’s absolute LMP is higher in Muslim countries with higher levels of economic development and in the oil-exporting countries. For women’s relative LMP, practical democracy (the degree to which people actively participate in the system) takes in a key position. It has a strong positive effect on women’s relative LMP and mediates the effects of economic development (positive), formal democratic structures (positive) and state Islamization (negative) on women’s relative LMP. Results indicate that in these countries modernization may lead to empowerment of women by increasing their absolute LMP, but that for attaining gender equality the political opportunity structures is most important.     

Economic structure and fertility: A comparative analysis

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the economic structure of populations and their level of fertility, using data from censuses recently conducted in some 50 nations. Findings show that high rates of female labor force participation outside the home and low rates of economic activity of children depress a society’s fertility level, as measured by the crude birth rate or the child-woman ratio. It is also hypothesized, but not confirmed, that the per cent of unpaid family workers in a society is positively related to its fertility level. A model is presented that treats these three components of economic structure as intervening variables through which the exogenous variables, urbanization, industrialization, and education, operate in influencing the fertility level of a society.     

Korean patterns of women's labor force participation during the period, 1960-1980

"This article investigates how the patterns of Korean women's labor force participation have changed during the 1960s and the 1970s, [periods] of rapid economic development and social changes. The discussion focuses on the comparison of three sets of cross-sectional data derived from the 1960, 1970 and 1980 [Republic of Korea] censuses. Although not dramatic, the gross rates of women's labor force participation show an upward trend. A very high and rapidly increasing rate of rural women's labor force participation did not result in a big increase in the total rate because of the significant rise in the proportion of the population living in urban areas. However, the employment structure and patterns of women's labor force participation have changed significantly, especially in urban areas."     

Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States

This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility.     

小农经济结构与女性家庭角色——基于20世纪30年代微观数据的探析

本文利用1938-1940年间的满铁实地调查数据,讨论了中国华东与华北地区经济结构的不同特色对女性在小农经济家庭中的经济角色差异的影响。通过构建计量模型,控制住可能影响家庭经济福利水平的家庭特征变量及县区特征变量,检验结果显示,20世纪30年代,华北地区女性在家庭中作为男性的辅助劳动力,女性劳动力占有比例对家庭经济福利水平毫无影响;而华东地区女性主要从事副业生产,对家庭经济福利水平具有显著的正向影响。也就是说,华东与华北地区的不同的小农经济结构导致女性劳动力在小农家庭中扮演着不同的经济角色。     

Modernization Theory: How to Measure and Operationalize it When Gauging Variation in Women’s Representation?

Modernization theory, one of the most influential theories in the social sciences, holds that as the composition of the economy develops, from an agrarian to a postindustrial society, communities will develop post-materialist values, which should lead to a higher representation of women in elected positions. However, while this reasoning is intuitive, there is no consensus on how to operationalize and measure this process. Existing studies use different types of national level proxy measures such as aggregated survey data on public attitudes on gender equality and broad development indicators such as per capita GDP or population density. In this article, we not only highlight that existing strategies are suboptimal as they run the risk of creating ecological inference fallacies for the former type of indicators and measurement error for the second type of factors, but also offer some finer grained operationalization of modernization theory at the regional level. In more detail, we illustrate that modernization is a multifaceted concept, which is primarily characterized by urbanization, women’s increased labor force participation and a strengthening of the tertiary sector. Using an original dataset on 285 European regions we illustrate that any of these three characteristics of modernization has an independent impact on women’s representation.     

Determinants of male labor mobility

This study is concerned with male labor mobility in 84 urban labor markets. Mobility studies have frequently used employment variables to approximate differential labor demands and to explain mobility. It would seem that supply factors, as well as demand factors, could exert an influence on mobility. To assess the influence of supply factors, new labor force entrants and withdrawals, along with labor demand variables, were regressed against gross in- and out-migration rates. The results confirmed the hypothesis that labor mobility is substantially influenced by the economic and demographic characteristics of the urban labor market. Higher rates of in-migration were found in regions with higher rates of new employment opportunities. Where the demographic characteristics of the labor market result in larger labor supplies, out-migration rates were found to be higher and in-migration rates lower. Labor seems quite sensitive to differential labor market conditions and would appear to flow toward markets where an economic advantage lies. One interesting interpretation of the negative association between in-migration and wages is that employment opportunities may expand more rapidly in low-wage sectors, perhaps in the nonmanufacturing sector, thereby providing job opportunities which attract labor into the region.     

Fertility,life cycle stage and female labor Force participation in Rhode Island: A retrospective overview

Considerable historical evidence indicates a long term increase in female labor force participation in the United States during the twentieth century. However, there are only limited data available for analyzing this secular trend in any depth. Comprehensive retrospective data for a representative sample of 1,578 once-married Rhode Island women are utilized to examine the changing historical relationships between female work participation in selected life cycle intervals and educatonal attainment. The data indicate that there has been a recent convergence of labor force rates between better and less educated women, in some instances reversing the traditional pattern of higher labor force rates for less educated women. This convergence reflects primarily an extraordinary in-crease in labor force participation for women with at least twelve years of school at all stages of the childbearing period. Also highlighted is the close relationship between labor force participation in one life cycle interval and probability of participation in subsequent intervals. It is found that working or not working in one life cycle is a useful predictor of subsequent work participation. Also, a greater tendency for more recent cohorts of women to re-enter the labor force after childbearing is noted.     

秘鲁城市女性劳动参与的微观研究

本文利用2001年秘鲁国家统计和信息局第三期家庭抽样调查数据,运用Logistic回归,分析了在秘鲁城市中,人口、经济和教育变量是如何影响女性劳动参与的.并且将首都利马和利马以外的其他地区加以区分来进行分析。研究结果表明在秘鲁城市范围内.女性劳动参与随着女性生命周期的变化出现了很明确的模式;生育、婚姻状况、与家长的关系、接受高等教育(指硕士及以上和培训)明显地影响女性劳动参与。在首都利马和其他地区的大部分影响方向很类似。但是在首都利马的影响程度要大一些。