女性受教育程度与婚配模式对二孩生育意愿的影响

在人口转变过程中,女性受教育程度的提升往往被认为是促进生育率下降的因素之一,但是在后人口转变时期,许多针对发达国家的研究发现女性的受教育程度与生育水平呈现正相关的关系。本文使用2010年、2012年和2013年中国综合社会调查数据,分析和比较中国女性的二孩生育意愿在不同受教育程度和不同教育婚配模式下的差异。结果显示在不考虑政策限制的情况下,受教育程度较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高,即便考虑了女性的收入水平后这一关系依然显著。研究发现在考虑夫妇的相对特征后,相比受教育程度均为初中的夫妇,夫妇受教育程度均较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高。文章使用生育的性别公平理论对生育意愿在女性受教育程度及婚配模式上的这一U型变化模式进行解释。生育行为不仅与经济水平或夫妻间的相对经济实力相关,还会受到性别观念的影响,更加平等的性别观念与性别关系有利于促进生育意愿的提升。政府应推广具有普惠性质的托育支持体系,促进女性就业和性别平等,使生育率维持在稳定水平。     

The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach

Population Research and Policy Review - We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior...     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

A Relational Gompertz Model of Male Fertility: Development and Assessment

Brass has proposed a relational Gompertz model of female fertility which, in combination with the standard fertility distribution developed by Booth, has proved useful in a range of applications, such as indirect estimation, demographic modelling, and population projections. This paper develops a standard distribution of male fertility for use in conjunction with the relational Gompertz model. The derivation of the standard takes advantage of the similarity between the shape of male and female fertility distributions. It entails ‘stretching’ the female standard, so that it extends to age 80, and then transforming it, using the Gompertz model into a pattern which is more typical of male fertility distributions in the developing world. An assessment of this new standard by fitting the relational Gompertz model based on it to a series of male fertility distributions from diverse populations, suggests that it performs very well.     

Muslim and Non‐Muslim Differences in Female Autonomy and Fertility: Evidence from Four Asian Countries

On the basis of research on paired Muslim and non‐Muslim communities selected in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, the authors test the hypothesis that greater observed Muslim pronatalism can be explained by less power or lower autonomy among Muslim women. Indeed, wives in the Muslim communities, compared to the non‐Muslim ones: 1) had more children, 2) were more likely to desire additional children, and 3) if they desired no more children, were less likely to be using contraception. However, the authors do not find that Muslim communities consistently score lower on dimensions of women's power/autonomy. Thus, aggregate‐level comparisons provide little evidence of a relationship between lower autonomy and higher fertility. Individual‐level multivariate analysis of married women in these paired settings similarly suggests that women's autonomy differentials do not account for the higher fertility, demand for more children, and less use of contraception among Muslim wives. These results suggest that explanations for Muslim/non‐Muslim fertility differences lie elsewhere.     

中国高龄老人生育率个体差异研究

H.Carey认为人类的思维活动影响生殖活动;而生物人口学上的"人类增长自我调节原理"以及"人类生殖力与生存力动态平衡"理论指出人类生殖力与长寿相关.由于数据等方面的困难,学术界对这一问题的实证研究非常有限.本文采用中国高龄老人调查的结果进行初步探讨.     

The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility: An Analysis of Danish Data

Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors contributing to maintaining relatively high completed fertility among the younger cohorts of Danish women. To explore this idea, we analyze and project cohort trends in fertility rates among native Danish women born in 1960‐78 and examine the likely contribution of assisted reproduction to these trends. The projected proportion of children born after ART treatment shows a substantial increase from 2.1 percent among women born in 1965 to 4‐5 percent among women born in 1978, with an estimated net impact of ART (as compared with the hypothetical situation where no ART treatment was available) on the order of 3‐4 percent. When intrauterine inseminations are included, this implies that up to 7 percent of children of those native Danish women born in 1975 and later will likely be conceived by infertility treatment.     

两性择偶标准的差异研究

通过1989-1999年十年间《女友》杂志中的征婚启事,本文对我国男性和女性的择偶标准的进行了分析。结果表明,女性和男性的择偶标准存在着很大差异:和男性相比,女性在择偶时更重视对方的经济条件、职业及生活地区等方面。而男性对女方外貌性格等方面的要求比较多,他们选择妻     

新疆维吾尔女性人口教育状况研究

新疆维吾尔族女性人口受教育状况不容乐观。与男性相比,其受教育程度低,人口比例小,文盲率高。在对维吾尔女性人口的教育过程中也存在着不少问题,要提高维吾尔全民族的人口素质,首先要消除教育上的性别差异,尽快提高女性人口的文化素质。     

中国生育率的地区差异及其政策选择

本文对中国妇女生育率的发展现况进行了客观的估计 ,分析了生育率及其地区差异的特点 ,从内容、可行性、合理性等不同角度对现行生育政策进行了审视 ,指出了现行生育政策条件下中国妇女生育率的发展趋势。面对社会经济和人口发展过程中面临的诸多人口问题与挑战 ,从是否需要调整、调整幅度与如何调整三方面对生育政策调整问题进行了深入的分析 ,讨论了各种可能的生育政策调整方案 ,并提出了自己的一些对策建议。     

Estimating Educational Differences in Low-Risk Cesarean Section Delivery: A Multilevel Modeling Approach

U.S. rates of cesarean section, and in particular, low-risk cesarean section (LRC) births rose dramatically across the late 1990s and early 2000s, and have since remained high. Although previous research explores how trends in LRC vary between states and across maternal characteristics, within-state heterogeneity has not yet been accounted for, nor has the extent to which maternal and county characteristics might interact to shape the likelihood of a LRC birth. Using U.S. county-level birth data for years 2008–2010 from the restricted National Vital Statistics Systems Cohort Linked Birth-Infant Death Files and the Area Health Resource Files, I conduct race-stratified multilevel analyses to explore the association between the mother’s education, the income of the county in which she gives birth, and the odds of LRC delivery. I find that regardless of race/ethnicity, less education at the individual level and lower income at the county level are associated with higher odds of LRC delivery. There are also persistent racial disparities in these relationships. Non-Hispanic black mothers have the highest overall odds of LRC delivery, yet the effect of both education and county income is greatest for non-Hispanic white mothers. The results highlight the importance of analyzing both individual resources and contextual effects of the county when assessing birthing processes, as both contribute to a mother’s access to and knowledge of natal care.     

A Note on The Accuracy of Male Responses to Questions on Fertility

There seems to be little doubt that reliablefertility information can be obtained from Latin A merican women. The question remains, however, whether such information can be obtained from males. This paper presents evidence on the accuracy of reports of the number of live births collected in a survey of 1,640 male residents of the Monterrey, Mexico metropolitan area. The accuracy of the number of live births recorded in this survey is evaluated on the basis of (1) internal consistency, (2) the Mexican census, and (3) previous investigation. The present analysis indicates that the information collected is of good quality and potentially useful for several types of fertility analysis. No evidence was found of underreporting.     

Group Normative Propensities,Societal Positioning,and Childbearing: Ethno-linguistic Variation in Completed and Desired Fertility in Transitional Central Asia

Population Research and Policy Review - Considerable research in western, low-fertility contexts has examined minority-vs.-majority fertility differentials, typically focusing on minority...     

关于影响生育水平的因素及稳定低生育水平的对策分析

20世纪90年代末以来,我国育龄妇女的总和生育率已在更替水平以下,这是我国长期实行人口政策和经济发展的结果;但由于我国城乡之间、地区之间经济发展不平衡,以及计划生育部门的管理机制等原因,要保持和稳定目前这种低生育水平是艰巨的。本文从影响生育水平的若干因素、我国目前出现低生育水平的原因以及稳定低生育水平的难度出发,对稳定低生育水平提出了一定的对策建议。     

中国低生育水平下的生育意愿与生育行为差异研究

在国家实行全面两孩政策背景下,认清生育意愿与生育行为的差异,是把握中国未来人口形势变化的关键。文章利用2010年以来的四次全国性抽样调查原始数据,对中国育龄人群的生育意愿与生育行为的差异及影响因素进行分析。研究发现:中国目前意愿生育水平在1.82~1.88的区间范围内,其点估计值在1.86左右,已显著低于更替水平;越年轻的出生队列其生育意愿越低,中国未来的意愿生育水平可能会继续降低;育龄人群的意愿生育水平要显著高于其终身生育水平,且二者差异随年龄的减小呈递增趋势,中国未来生育水平存在进一步下降的可能性;没有生育政策限制下的终身生育水平仅为1.68,这可以作为生育政策调整对中国生育水平影响的上限。生育政策对当前育龄人群生育意愿与生育水平差异的贡献度在33%左右,全面两孩政策对中国生育水平的提升作用有限。     

Do Cross-National Differences in the Costs of Children Generate Cross-National Differences in Fertility Rates?

Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the United States, the former West Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom), whose fertility rates span the observed fertility range in the contemporary industrialized world and whose social welfare and family policies span the conceptual space of standard welfare-state typologies. Definitive conclusions are difficult because of the multiple dimensions on which child costs can be measured, the possibility that child costs affect both the quantum and the tempo of fertility, the relatively small fertility differences across industrialized nations, and the inherent small-N problem resulting from nation-level comparisons. Empirical analysis, however, supports the assertion that institutionally driven child costs affect the fertility patterns of industrialized nations.     

Fertility Differences between the Majority and Minority Nationality Groups in China

There is an extensive sociological and demographic literature about why racial and ethnic minority groups in the U.S. have different levels of fertility, usually higher, than the majority white group. The four major hypotheses are the subcultural hypothesis, the social characteristics hypothesis, the minority group status hypothesis, and the economic hypothesis. In this paper we focus on fertility patterns of the majority Han and the larger minority groups in China and examine the degree to which the above hypotheses may be useful in articulating the reasons why the fertility of the Han majority differs from that of the minorities. We first present a brief historical review of the genesis and development of the majority and minority nationalities in China. We next present short vignettes of each of the eight minority nationalities we will be examining. We then review the Western literature on fertility differentials between majority and minority nationalities, and summarize the theoretical expectations behind the four prominent hypotheses to be tested. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, and draw out the implications of our work.     

Female Professional Work Opportunities: A Cross-National Study

While economic development has been associated with increased participation of females in the labor force, it remains problematic whether sexual equality within the labor force has also increased. This study examines the differentiation of structural variables, specifically economic and demographic variables, on female participation and sexual equality within a specific sector of the labor force: the professions. The units of analysis are primarily European countries with the inclusion of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The findings indicate that those economic development factors (female higher education enrollment rate and professional demand) significantly related to the female professional participation rate are distinct from those structural factors (economic growth rate, working age male deficiency) affecting sexual equality within the professional sector.     

Landholding and Fertility: A Rejoinder

In this paper the relative time cost of children compared to other types of household tasks, and the relative time cost of producing quantity rather than quality of children is examined. These propositions lie at the heart of much of the literature on the economics of fertility, but they have rarely been examined directly. We employ household time-use data from a study of a large metropolitan area in the United States. Our results cast doubt on the notions that: (a) child-services are more time-costly than other household tasks; (b) that quantity of child-services is more time-costly than quality of child-services. Moreover, there appear to be strong complementarities between child-services and other household tasks, and time spent on child care does not seem to act as an obstacle to working outside the home. Finally, we suggest another economic interpretation of the fertility transition centred not on changes in objective factors exogeneous to the household, but, instead, on the internal economic power structure of the household itself.