Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States

This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty‐first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas (“counties”) compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child‐women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.     

Paradox Revisited: A Further Investigation of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Infant Mortality by Maternal Age

I reexamine the epidemiological paradox of lower overall infant mortality rates in the Mexican-origin population relative to U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites using the 1995–2002 U.S. NCHS linked cohort birth-infant death files. A comparison of infant mortality rates among U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin mothers by maternal age reveals an infant survival advantage at younger maternal ages when compared with non-Hispanic whites, which is consistent with the Hispanic infant mortality paradox. However, this is accompanied by higher infant mortality at older ages for Mexican-origin women, which is consistent with the weathering framework. These patterns vary by nativity of the mother and do not change when rates are adjusted for risk factors. The relative infant survival disadvantage among Mexican-origin infants born to older mothers may be attributed to differences in the socioeconomic attributes of U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin women.     

Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk

In this article, I examine the black-white crossover in U.S. adult all-cause mortality, emphasizing how cohort effects condition age-specific estimates of mortality risk. I employ hierarchical age-period-cohort methods on the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files between 1986 and 2006 to show that the black-white mortality crossover can be uncrossed by factoring out period and cohort effects of mortality risk. That is, when controlling for variations in cohort and period patterns of U.S. adult mortality, the estimated age effects of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult mortality risk do not cross at any age. This is the case for both men and women. Further, results show that nearly all the recent temporal change in U.S. adult mortality risk was cohort driven. The findings support the contention that the non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult populations experienced disparate cohort patterns of mortality risk and that these different experiences are driving the convergence and crossover of mortality risk at older ages.     

Interracial Marriage and Self-Reported Health of Whites and Blacks in the United States

This study examines the self-reported health of 180,291 married non-Hispanic blacks and whites in interracial versus endogamous marriages. Data are from the National Health Interview Survey pooled over the period 1997–2013. The results from ordinal logistic regressions show that non-Hispanic whites intermarried with non-Hispanic blacks, non-Hispanic whites intermarried with non-Hispanic other races, and non-Hispanic white women with Hispanic husbands report significantly poorer health than their endogamous counterparts. Furthermore, non-Hispanic whites with non-Hispanic black spouses also fare worse than their interracially married peers with Hispanic spouses. In contrast, the self-reported health of married non-Hispanic blacks shows no significant difference between the interracially and the endogamously married. Our findings highlight the theoretical significance of spousal characteristics and couple-level contexts in the household production of health.     

The impact of minority group status on the projected retirement income of divorced women in the baby boom cohort

Using projections from the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT1), we examine the characteristics and retirement income of white non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic divorced women in the baby boom cohort. Although we find significant differences in retirement income for divorced women of different racial and ethnic groups, the characteristics associated with higher or lower retirement income are very similar. That is, being college educated, owning a home, and having pension and asset income, for example, correspond to increased retirement income for all racial and ethnic groups. However, because black and Hispanic women are less likely than white women to be college educated, to own their home, and to have pension and asset income, their retirement income tends to be lower than that of white women. We conclude the paper by briefly discussing policy options to address the retirement needs of divorced women.     

Paradox found (again): Infant mortality among the Mexican-origin population in the united states

Recent research suggests that the favorable mortality outcomes for the Mexican immigrant population in the United States may largely be attributable to selective out-migration among Mexican immigrants, resulting in artificially low recorded death rates for the Mexican-origin population. In this paper we calculate detailed age-specific infant mortality rates by maternal race/ethnicity and nativity for two important reasons: (1) it is extremely unlikely that women of Mexican origin would migrate to Mexico with newborn babies, especially if the infants were only afew hours or afew days old; and (2) more than 50% of all infant deaths in the United States occur during the first week of life, when the chances of out-migration are very small. We use concatenated data from the U.S. linked birth and infant death cohort files from 1995 to 2000, which provides us with over 20 million births and more than 150,000 infant deaths to analyze. Our results clearly show that first-hour, first-day, and first-week mortality rates among infants born in the United States to Mexican immigrant women are about 10% lower than those experienced by infants of non-Hispanic, white U.S.-born women. It is extremely unlikely that such favorable rates are artificially caused by the out-migration of Mexican-origin women and infants, as we demonstrate with a simulation exercise. Further, infants born to U.S.-born Mexican American women exhibit rates of mortality that are statistically equal to those of non-Hispanic white women during the first weeks of life and fare considerably better than infants born to non-Hispanic black women, with whom they share similar socioeconomic profiles. These patterns are all consistent with the definition of the epidemiologic paradox as originally proposed by Markides and Coreil (1986).     

Racial and Ethnic Variation in the Relationship Between Student Loan Debt and the Transition to First Birth

The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.     

An investigation of racial and ethnic disparities in birth weight in Chicago neighborhoods

We examine differences in the mean birth weights of infants born to non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Mexican-origin Hispanic mothers (of any race) in Chicago in 1990 using linear regression models with neighborhood fixed effects. Our pooled models accounted for 64% of the black-white difference and 57% of the black/Mexican-origin Hispanic difference. Differences in the relationship between measured characteristics and birth weight accounted for around half the birth-weight gap between non-Hispanic black and other infants. Efforts to close this gap must go beyond programs that aim to reduce the level of risk factors among black women to address the causes of differences in the effects of risk factors.     

Race/ethnic differences in respiratory problems among a nationally-representative cohort of young children in the United States

Using data from a nationally-representative cohort of young children in the United States, we ask the following: (1) Are there race/ethnic and birth weight differentials in the likelihood of developing respiratory problems by age three in a nationally representative birth cohort? (2) To what extent does birth weight, vis-á-vis other key sociodemographic risk factors, mediate race/ethnic differentials in reported respiratory problems? (3) Does the effect of birth weight on respiratory problems risk differ by race? We find that non-Hispanic black children are 1.7 times as likely as non-Hispanic white children to be reported to have respiratory problems by age three, while the risk for Hispanic children is similar to that of non-Hispanic white children. Birth weight is also very strongly related to respiratory problem risk. Specifically, children born at very low weights (500–1499 g) have four times the odds of having respiratory problems of heavier children. Statistical controls for birth weight decrease the black-white differential by about 20%, while additional controls for sociodemographic factors reduce the race differential by an additional 35%. Finally, the net effect of birth weight is different for black and white children: whereas birth weight affects the risk of respiratory problems for black children only at low weights (<1500 g), it remains an important predictor of excess risk for white children up to 3500 g.

     

Entry or exit? A transition-probability approach to explaining the high prevalence of single motherhood among black women

I analyze the prevalence of single motherhood among black and non-Hispanic white women in terms of differences in entry and exit. Higher initial entry rates among black women, especially through unpartnered childbearing, account for slightly more than half the difference between blacks and whites in the prevalence of single motherhood. The remainder of the difference is due to black single mothers' much lower rates of exit through union formation and to their very high rates of reentry through dissolution of these later unions. Entry and exit rates through the 1990s imply a widening racial gap.     

Metropolitan Structure and Neighborhood Attainment: Exploring Intermetropolitan Variation in Racial Residential Segregation

Using data from the 1981, 1991, and 2001 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and several decennial censuses, we examine how characteristics of metropolitan areas are associated with black and white households’ neighborhood racial composition. Results from hierarchical linear models show that about 20% to 40% of the variation in the percentage of households’ tract population that is non-Hispanic white or non-Hispanic black exists across metropolitan areas. Over time, white households’ exposure to non-Hispanic white neighbors has declined, and their exposure to non-Hispanic black neighbors has increased; the reverse trends are observed for blacks. These trends cannot be attributed to changes in the ecological structure of metropolitan areas. Blacks have fewer white neighbors in large metropolitan areas containing sizable minority populations, and blacks have more white neighbors in metropolitan areas with high government employment. Whites have more black neighbors in metropolitan areas with high levels of government employment and ample new housing; whites have fewer black neighbors in metropolitan areas with a high level of municipal fragmentation. The association between metropolitan-area percentage black and tract percentage black is weaker among whites than among blacks, suggesting that whites are especially motivated to self-segregate in metropolitan areas with large black populations.     

Erosion of Advantage: Decomposing Differences in Infant Mortality Rates Among Older Non-Hispanic White and Mexican-Origin Mothers

We build on findings from recent research showing an erosion of infant survival advantage in the Mexican-origin population relative to non-Hispanic whites at older maternal ages, with patterns that differ by nativity. This runs counter to the well-documented Hispanic infant mortality paradox and suggests that weathering and/or other negative health selection mechanisms may contribute to increasing disadvantage at older maternal ages. Using the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) cohort-linked birth and infant death files, we decompose the difference in Mexican-origin non-Hispanic white infant mortality at older maternal ages to better understand the contribution of selected medical and social risk factors to components of the difference. We find differences in the distribution and effects of risk factors across the three populations of interest. The infant mortality rate (IMR) gap between Mexican-origin women and non-Hispanic whites can be attributed to numerous offsetting factors, with inadequate prenatal care standing out as a major contributor to the IMR difference. Equalizing access to and utilization of prenatal care may provide one possible route to closing the IMR gap at older maternal ages.     

The Persistence of Racial Disadvantage: The Socioeconomic Attainments of Single-Race and Multi-Race Native Americans

Using data from the 2000 U.S. Census, we investigate the schooling and earnings of single-race and multi-race Native Americans. Our analysis distinguishes between Single-Race Native Americans, biracial White Native Americans, biracial Hispanic-White Native Americans, and biracial Black Native Americans. Further differentiating by gender, the results indicate significant variation in socioeconomic attainments across these different Native American groups although almost all of them are in some way disadvantaged relative to non-Hispanic, non-Native American whites. The most disadvantaged group tends to be Single-Race Native Americans who have the lowest levels of schooling as well as lower earnings relative to non-Hispanic, non-Native American whites who are comparable in terms of schooling, age, and other basic demographic characteristics. The results demonstrate notable differentials by the racial/ethnic type of Native American group as well as by gender. In the case of men, all of the Native American groups have clear socioeconomic disadvantages. One contrast is that migration slightly increases the earnings of men but it slightly decreases the earnings of women. We interpret these findings as underscoring how measured socioeconomic differentials between demographic groups are significantly affected by the categorization of race/ethnicity in surveys and by how persons choose to be enumerated in terms of those categories.     

Father Absence and Accelerated Reproductive Development in Non-Hispanic White Women in the United States

Girls who experience father absence in childhood also experience accelerated reproductive development in comparison with peers with present fathers. One hypothesis advanced to explain this empirical pattern is genetic confounding, wherein gene-environment correlation (rGE) causes a spurious relationship between father absence and reproductive timing. We test this hypothesis by constructing polygenic scores for age at menarche and first birth using recently available genome-wide association study results and molecular genetic data on a sample of non-Hispanic white females from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We find that young women’s accelerated menarche polygenic scores are unrelated to their exposure to father absence. In contrast, polygenic scores for earlier age at first birth tend to be higher in young women raised in homes with absent fathers. Nevertheless, father absence and the polygenic scores independently and additively predict reproductive timing. We find no evidence in support of the rGE hypothesis for accelerated menarche and only limited evidence in support of the rGE hypothesis for earlier age at first birth.     

The impact of immigration on the internal migration of natives and immigrants

In this paper we examine the internal migratory response, by native-born non-Hispanic white men and foreign-born men in the United States, to recent immigration. Our analysis does not support the claim that natives have made a migratory response to recent immigration. Native-born men and foreign-born men were less likely to leave states that received large numbers of immigrants in the 1980s than they were to leave other states, and native-born men had less propensity toward out-migration than did foreign-born men. Out-migration was most likely to be deterred if recent immigrants originated in Europe or Asia. Although native-born non-Hispanic white men showed a tendency toward out-migration if recent immigrants originated in Latin America or the Caribbean, this result was insignificant after we controlled for state economic and regional context.     

Employment gains and wage declines: The erosion of black women’s relative wages since 1980

Public policy initiatives in the 1950s and 1960s, including Affirmative Action and Equal Employment Opportunity law, helped mitigate explicit discrimination in pay, and the expansion of higher education and training programs have advanced the employment fortunes of many American women. By the early 1980s, some scholars proclaimed near equity in pay between black and white women, particularly among young and highly skilled workers. More recent policy initiatives and labor market conditions have been arguably less progressive for black women’s employment and earnings: through the 1980s, 1990s, and the first half of the 2000s, the wage gap between black and white women widened considerably. Using data from the Current Population Survey Merged Outgoing Rotation Group (CPS-MORG), this article documents the racial wage gap among women in the United States from 1979 to 2005. We investigate how demographic and labor market conditions influence employment and wage inequality among black and white women over the period. Although shifts in labor supply influence the magnitude of the black-white wage gap among women, structural disadvantages faced by black women help explain the growth in the racial wage gap.     

The living arrangements of unmarried elderly hispanic females

In this paper we examine the influence of cultural preferences on living arrangements for a sample of older unmarried Hispanic and non-Hispanic white females. We develop a conceptual framework composed of three sets of factors: availability of kin, economic and health feasibility, and cultural desirability. Our analyses show that household living arrangements among Hispanic and non-Hispanic females are more similar when we control for these three sets of factors, and that cultural desirability factors are particularly important. The likelihood that elderly Hispanic females will reside in an institution is actually decreased, however, when we control for these factors; this finding suggests a strong reluctance among Hispanics to use formal long-term care facilities.