Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility

This research challenges the notion that the second half of the twentieth century was a period of global demographic convergence. To be sure, fertility rates fell substantially during the period, but with considerable un‐evenness. The declines in total fertility across population‐weighted countries were sufficiently disproportionate that intercountry fertility inequality, estimated using standard measures of inequality, did not begin to decline until at least 1995. Regression analysis also shows that only very recently did lagging countries begin to catch up with countries that began the transition to low fertility earlier. Contrary to findings on changing intercountry health inequality, sub‐Saharan Africa has had a greater impact on changes in fertility inequality than China. The trend in fertility inequality, where convergence is a relatively new phenomenon, stands in contrast to trends in inequality in other domains, such as income, education, and health.     

Population Dynamics: Poverty,Inequality, and Self-Regulating Fertility Rates

Population growth without a parallel increase in capital impoverishes any society and tends to deepen inequality. The system is dynamic because people who perceive or foresee contracting economic opportunity usually restrict family size. Worsening poverty feeds back into the loop to slow, then stop further population growth.     

收入增长、不平等和贫困——中国健康与营养调查数据分析

文章利用中国8个省的调查数据,研究了城市和农村在1989~2004年间经济增长、收入不平等和减贫之间的关系.分析结果表明,城乡收入水平在这一期间有了引人注目的改善,在很大程度上降低了贫困率.沿海农村地区的居民收入上升最快,其次为沿海城市地区.在这个时期,收入的不平等也在扩大,尤其是在城市地区,抵消了一部分由增长带来的减贫成果.通过对收入决定因素的分解,作者发现,收入水平的改善在很大程度上归功于教育回报率的上升和农村非农产业的就业增长.     

Marriage (Still) Matters: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Trends in Childlessness in the United States

Childlessness in the United States nearly doubled between 1980 and 2000. Other dramatic changes in the U.S. population also took place over this period—notably, women’s average educational attainment increased, and the proportion marrying declined—but the impact of these changes on childlessness has not been formally examined. In this article, I use data from the Current Population Survey Fertility Supplements (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008) and logistic regression and regression-based decomposition techniques to assess the contribution of changes in educational attainment, marriage behavior, and racial/ethnic composition on population levels of childlessness in the United States. Results show that increases in the proportion of women unmarried by age 40 contributed most to the increase in childlessness in the late twentieth century, although these increases were offset somewhat by increased childbearing among unmarried women. The rising proportion of women with a college degree also explained a substantial amount of the increase in childless women.     

中国的失业、贫困与收入分配差距

文章利用1999年住户抽样调查和2000年人口普查数据来推算城市失业率、贫困率及基尼系数,并预测今后收入分配的变化趋势。研究结果发现:(1)城市失业率较政府公布值高出近3倍,特别是“下岗失业”问题尤为突出。(2)城市贫困问题日益严重,并已成为加剧城市收入不平等的原因之一。(3)城市与农村间的收入差距不但没有缩小,反而在持续扩大。(4)居民的收入分配在持续恶化。文章还指出,依据库兹涅茨曲线分析,中国尚处于基尼系数上升时期,因而在达到峰值之前收入差距还会扩大,这有可能成为社会和政治不安定的因素。     

Economic Development,Gender Inequality,and Demographic Outcomes: Evidence from India

This article examines the determinants of fertility, child mortality, and female disadvantage in child survival in India, using a district‐level panel data set linking 1981 and 1991 censuses. The results question the dominant view that variables directly related to women's agency (specifically, the female literacy rate and the female labor force participation rate) have played the crucial roles here. Instead, variables reflecting the general level of development and modernization are shown to have had the greatest effect in reducing fertility and child mortality during the period of the study. Both economic development and women's agency are seen to have had significant effects in reducing the female disadvantage in child survival. The results suggest, however, that with continued economic development, the two women's agency variables lose their significance in influencing this disadvantage. The policy implications of these findings are considered.     

The IMF on Policies Responding to Demographic Change

In its semiannual report World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund presents its analysis of major economic policy issues and assessment of economic prospects, along with more detailed treatment of a selected current topic. The special topic in the 300-page report published in September 2004 is “The Global Demographic Transition,” treated in Chapter III of the document. An excerpt from the section of that chapter titled “Policies to Meet the Challenges of Global Demographic Change” is reproduced below with the permission of the IMF. Footnotes and the figure included in the excerpt have been renumbered. The title of Chapter III is “How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?” The tone of the discussion is set by the opening epigraph, a quotation from the UK's 1949 Report of the Royal Commission on Population: “It seems possible that a society in which the proportion of young people is diminishing will become dangerously unprogressive, falling behind other communities not only in technical efficiency and economic welfare, but in intellectual and artistic achievement as well.” Accordingly, the focus of the analysis, like that of the commentary by US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reprinted in the preceding Document item in this issue, is on the consequences of population aging and on the desirable policy responses to that process. The discussion broadly parallels Greenspan's but with a wider compass, including some consideration of the effects of aging in developing countries. It emphasizes the need for counteracting adverse effects of demographic change through a combination of policy measures, since “the size of the reforms” (such as increasing labor force participation, inducing later retirement, and attracting more immigrants) “that would be needed in any single area [is] sufficiently large that they would be politically and economically difficult to achieve.”     

Economic Growth,Inequality and Poverty in the EU

Social Indicators Research - A country’s poverty rate is influenced by numerous factors, including economic growth and the distribution of its effects. This article aims to classify European...     

The Trade-off Between Poverty Reduction and Carbon Emissions,and the Role of Economic Growth and Inequality: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis Using a Novel Indicator

Is it possible for countries to eradicate poverty while also meeting environmental goals? Despite the passage of international agreements calling for these issues to be addressed simultaneously, little is known about the direct relationship between them. This study addresses this gap by proposing a new and composite indicator that integrates measures for both poverty and environmental outcomes (carbon emissions) into a single variable, the carbon intensity of poverty reduction (CIPR). This variable defines the trade-off between the proportional changes of emissions per capita and of the share of the population above the poverty line. In parallel an analytic framework is developed to formulate propositions concerning the possible effects of growth and inequality on the CIPR. The propositions are tested empirically using data from 135 countries across a 30-year time period (1981–2012). The findings confirm that the carbon intensity of poverty reduction is heterogeneous across countries. This heterogeneity is partly explained by economic growth, which is found to have a negative effect on the CIPR up to a certain income level, defined here as a “turning point”. Above that turning point, economic growth increases the CIPR. By contrast, inequality reduction is shown to have a significant negative effect on the CIPR. This study contributes to the literature on sustainable development by analytically and quantitatively linking its three dimensions (social, economic and environmental) and by employing a composite indicator that directly measures the trade-off between poverty reduction and emission levels across countries.

     

The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility: An Analysis of Danish Data

Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors contributing to maintaining relatively high completed fertility among the younger cohorts of Danish women. To explore this idea, we analyze and project cohort trends in fertility rates among native Danish women born in 1960‐78 and examine the likely contribution of assisted reproduction to these trends. The projected proportion of children born after ART treatment shows a substantial increase from 2.1 percent among women born in 1965 to 4‐5 percent among women born in 1978, with an estimated net impact of ART (as compared with the hypothetical situation where no ART treatment was available) on the order of 3‐4 percent. When intrauterine inseminations are included, this implies that up to 7 percent of children of those native Danish women born in 1975 and later will likely be conceived by infertility treatment.     

Adapting Fertility Exposure Analysis to the Study of Fertility Change

Fertility exposure analysis was developed recently by Hobcraft and Little in order to evaluate the relative importance of the various proximate determinants upon levels of current fertility. In the present paper we extend the analysis to the study of changes in fertility between two cross-sectional surveys. We show how to express fertility change as a product of terms which represent changes in the proximate determinants. The model of change is adapted to a log-linear framework, in which the proximate determinants on the one hand, and socio-economic variables such as education, on the other, are considered together. A few simplifications of the method are also suggested so that fewer demands are made on data. The model and its possible interpretations are illustrated with pairs of surveys from Pakistan and Mexico. In each pair, one survey was part of the WFS programme and the other was very similar but conducted five years later.     

人口特征对收入分配的影响研究——基于深圳和重庆数据的分析

使用深圳市和重庆市两座城市2005年7月的居民抽样调查数据,运用基于人口特征的收入差距群体分解方法对两市的收入分配结构进行了对比研究。研究发现,虽然深圳市的城市居民收入分配差距大于重庆市,但一些代表个人身份的特征,如城市户籍、民族等因素,在深圳市城市居民收入分配中的作用却明显小于重庆市。在两座城市,就业行业和受教育程度是影响城市居民收入分配差距最主要的因素。由于就业行业与受教育水平密切相关,因此,在经济发展过程中不断加强教育投入,强化教育资源的均等化,防止受教育机会不平等的出现和扩大,对于防范中国经济由收入分配不公带来的风险意义重大。     

Financial Development,Institutional Quality and Poverty Reduction: Worldwide Evidence

Social Indicators Research - There is a burgeoning literature on wealth in the rich world. It mainly focuses on the top. This paper shows that assets can also matter for the analysis of poverty and...     

The Significance of Demographic Triviality: Minority Status and Zodiacal Fertility Timing Among Chinese Malaysians

The hypothesis that minority status creates social tensions that affect fertility behaviour attracted much attention during the late 1960s and 1970s, but then disappeared after 1980. This sudden exit was due to a combination of methodological difficulties in distilling the independent effects of minority status from other socio-economic factors, weaknesses or ambiguities in the empirical record, and other difficulties. This paper examines a natural experiment that serendipitously by-passes more of these problems than has been heretofore possible – the attempt by Chinese in Malaysia to time births into the auspicious Year of the Dragon. A multivariate model shows that this unique fertility behaviour was more common in Malaysian districts with smaller proportions of Chinese, which suggests that minority status can directly affect ethnic identity. The results also highlight a paradoxical solution to a grander problem facing socio-demographic theory. Before we can posit that culture or values play an independent role in transitions to lower fertility, we should first trace a baseline definition of these values from the study of demographically trivial events.     

Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality: Insights from the Upper Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia

As stated in the 2018 global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report, Ethiopia has the second largest multidimensionally poor population in Africa (after Nigeria). The global MPI was created to measure household’s multiple deprivations, but little systematic study has been carried out on the application of MPI measures on a smaller scale and vis-à-vis other measures of poverty. In addition, most of the few existing studies ignore any measure of inequality amongst the multidimensionally poor. This study explored multidimensional poverty in three different drought-prone agro-ecological settings of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. A preliminary participatory exercise was carried out at the study sites to select important indicators and then a structured survey was administered to 390 systematically and randomly selected households. The Alkire–Foster method was used to analyse multidimensional poverty and verified it with Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (CSPI). Multidimensional poverty incidence, adjusted head count ratio and inequality were significantly different between study sites (p?<?0.001). Results indicated a high incidence (88%, 82% and 80%), intensity (52%, 55% and 56%), MPI (46%, 45% and 45%) and inequality (53%, 60% and 63%) of poverty in Aba Gerima, Guder and Dibatie study sites, respectively. A high level of divergence was revealed between the MPI and CSPI in terms of identifying the poor. The living standard and land and livestock ownership dimensions contributed the most to MPI. The case study signifies the importance of inclusion of land and livestock indicators for the national MPI. Besides, it implies that researchers and policymakers need to account for smaller scale contextualised indicators and location differences when studying and designing anti-poverty interventions.

     

Fertility and mortality estimation from the Panama Retrospective Demographic Survey, 1976

Summary Data from the Retrospective Demographic Survey of Panama offer a unique opportunity to test a wide range of methods for estimating indirectly basic demographic parameters from inaccurate and incomplete data. Our primary emphasis is to evaluate methods for estimating adult mortality from information on widowhood and orphanhood, though estimates of childhood mortality obtained from information on sibling and child survivorship are assessed as well. The results for most of the estimating procedures are consistent; this finding is encouraging because it lends support to the hypothesis that the techniques can provide good estimates of mortality. Methods which produce results which are inconsistent provide valuable lessons. In particular, methods for providing unconditional estimates of values ofl (x) for adults by combining directly information on childhood mortality and adult mortality are shown to produce estimates which predominantly reflect the level of childhood mortality employed. Furthermore, within-method consistency of estimates appears to be a very poor indicator of reliable performance of the estimating technique or quality of data, since most methods yielded estimates which were internally consistent, though estimates made by different methods could differ considerably. In summary, the analysis indicates a birth rate of around 35 per thousand, a death rate of around 7.5 per thousand, a total fertility ratio of about 4.8, and expectations of life at birth of approximately 59 and 64 years for men and women respectively.