Values and Risk Perceptions: A Cross‐Cultural Examination

This article examines the relationship between values and risk perceptions regarding terror attacks. The participants in the study are university students from Turkey (n = 536) and Israel (n = 298). Schwartz value theory (1992, 1994) is applied to conceptualize and measure values. Cognitive (perceived likelihood and perceived severity) and emotional (fear, helplessness, anger, distress, insecurity, hopelessness, sadness, and anxiety) responses about the potential of (i) being personally exposed to a terror attack, and (ii) a terror attack that may occur in one's country are assessed to measure risk perceptions. Comparison of the two groups suggests that the Turkish participants are significantly more emotional about terror risks than the Israeli respondents. Both groups perceive the risk of a terror attack that may occur in their country more likely than the risk of being personally exposed to a terror attack. No significant differences are found in emotional representations and perceived severity ratings regarding these risks. Results provide support for the existence of a link between values and risk perceptions of terror attacks. In both countries, self‐direction values are negatively related to emotional representations, whereas security values are positively correlated with emotions; hedonism and stimulation values are negatively related to perceived likelihood. Current findings are discussed in relation to previous results, theoretical approaches (the social amplification of risk framework and cultural theory of risk), and practical implications (increasing community support for a course of action, training programs for risk communicators).     

The Dynamics of Evolving Beliefs,Concerns Emotions,and Behavioral Avoidance Following 9/11: A Longitudinal Analysis of Representative Archival Samples

September 11 created a natural experiment that enables us to track the psychological effects of a large‐scale terror event over time. The archival data came from 8,070 participants of 10 ABC and CBS News polls collected from September 2001 until September 2006. Six questions investigated emotional, behavioral, and cognitive responses to the events of September 11 over a five‐year period. We found that heightened responses after September 11 dissipated and reached a plateau at various points in time over a five‐year period. We also found that emotional, cognitive, and behavioral reactions were moderated by age, sex, political affiliation, and proximity to the attack. Both emotional and behavioral responses returned to a normal state after one year, whereas cognitively‐based perceptions of risk were still diminishing as late as September 2006. These results provide insight into how individuals will perceive and respond to future similar attacks.     

The Effects of Expectation Disconfirmation on Appraisal,Affect, and Behavioral Intentions

People's risk perceptions can have powerful effects on their outcomes, yet little is known about how people respond to risk information that disconfirms a prior expectation. We experimentally examined the affective, cognitive, and behavioral consequences of expectation disconfirmation in the context of risk perceptions. Participants were randomly assigned and then prompted toward either a high or low personal risk estimate regarding a fictitious health threat. All participants then received the same risk feedback, which presented either a negative disconfirmation experience (i.e., worse than expected) in the high‐risk estimate condition or a positive disconfirmation experience (i.e., better than expected) in the low‐risk estimate condition. Participants who experienced the negative disconfirmation reported stronger intentions to prevent the threat in the future compared to participants who experienced the positive disconfirmation. This effect was mediated by both disappointment about the risk feedback and perceptions of the severity of the threat. These findings have implications for risk communication, suggesting that the provision of objective risk information may improve or diminish the likelihood of behavior change depending on people's initial expectations and their emotional and cognitive reactions to the information.     

How do you really feel? Effect of leaders' perceived emotional sincerity on followers' trust

We extend research on leadership and emotions by addressing two previously under-researched areas. Prior research has focused primarily on the valence of leaders' displayed emotion and on followers' affective reactions to those displays. In contrast, we examined followers' cognitive reactions to the perceived sincerity of leaders' displayed emotion. Study 1 found that American workers' trust in a leader was related to their perceptions of that leader's emotional sincerity. Study 2 replicated these results among Chinese workers, and further indicated the mechanisms through which perceived emotional sincerity influenced trust and showed how trust influenced performance. The findings demonstrate the importance of including emotional sincerity in studies of leader affect, and suggest the value of adding a cognitive perspective to the current focus on followers' affective reactions to their leaders' emotions.     

The More Who Die,the Less We Care: Evidence from Natural Language Analysis of Online News Articles and Social Media Posts

Considerable amount of laboratory and survey‐based research finds that people show disproportional compassionate and affective response to the scope of human mortality risk. According to research on “psychic numbing,” it is often the case that the more who die, the less we care. In the present article, we examine the extent of this phenomenon in verbal behavior, using large corpora of natural language to quantify the affective reactions to loss of life. We analyze valence, arousal, and specific emotional content of over 100,000 mentions of death in news articles and social media posts, and find that language shows an increase in valence (i.e., decreased negative affect) and a decrease in arousal when describing mortality of larger numbers of people. These patterns are most clearly reflected in specific emotions of joy and (in a reverse fashion) of fear and anger. Our results showcase a novel methodology for studying affective decision making, and highlight the robustness and real‐world relevance of psychic numbing. They also offer new insights regarding the psychological underpinnings of psychic numbing, as well as possible interventions for reducing psychic numbing and overcoming social and psychological barriers to action in the face of the world's most serious threats.     

Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design,Demographics, and Hazard Experience

Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large‐casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado‐related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information‐seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information‐seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

Cognitive and Emotional Representations of Terror Attacks: A Cross-Cultural Exploration

A questionnaire measuring cognitive and affective representations of terror risk was developed and tested in Turkey and Israel. Participants in the study were university students from the two countries (n= 351). Four equivalent factors explained terror risk cognitions in each sample: costs, vulnerability, trust, and control. A single negative emotionality factor explained the affective component of terror risk representations in both samples. All factors except control could be measured reliably. Results supported the validity of the questionnaire by showing expected associations between cognitions and emotions, as well as indicating gender differences and cultural variations. Current findings are discussed in relation to previous results, theoretical approaches, and practical implications.     

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self-Regulation

To better understand how media exposure to terrorism-related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory abilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the media exposure condition than in the control condition. Importantly, there were moderating effects of both trait emotional intelligence and HRV. People with lower trait emotional intelligence or lower HRV at rest felt more threatened in the media exposure condition compared to the control condition, whereas this effect was not observed among participants with higher trait emotional intelligence or higher resting HRV. The present study highlights some of the complexities related to how media exposure to terrorism-related images influences people's reactions to, and evaluations of, an outgroup that is related to the perpetrators of the attacks.     

Which Fox in What Henhouse and When? Conjectures on Regulatory Capture

This article takes an interdisciplinary lens to the treatment of regulatory capture (RC). RC ensues when government bureaucrats, regulators, and public sector agencies receive adverse publicity for ceasing to serve the wider collective public interest. The work is divided into four sections. The first takes the point of view of each of the participants in the capture situation and provides an overview of the three variations on the RC story. Each subsequent section focuses on a version of the story. RC 1, the libertarian free market version celebrates capture as inevitable and desirable. RC 2, the regulators' communitarian take on capture places it in the context of a cycle story with regulators dutifully doing the public's shifting will. In the RC 3 version, the public finds it difficult to piece together a coherent version of the morally charged narrative. The article concludes with a discussion of the relevance of each of these three versions of RC in order to understand dominant–submissive relationships between business and government.     

Emotions,Trust, and Perceived Risk: Affective and Cognitive Routes to Flood Preparedness Behavior

Despite the prognoses of the effects of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, increasing river discharges), few international studies have addressed how flood preparedness should be stimulated among private citizens. This article aims to predict Dutch citizens’ flood preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including previous flood hazard experiences, trust in public flood protection, and flood risk perceptions (both affective and cognitive components). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys in two coastal communities (n= 169, n= 244) and in one river area community (n= 658). Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, the results indicate that both cognitive and affective mechanisms influence citizens’ preparedness intentions. First, a higher level of trust reduces citizens’ perceptions of flood likelihood, which in turn hampers their flood preparedness intentions (cognitive route). Second, trust also lessens the amount of dread evoked by flood risk, which in turn impedes flood preparedness intentions (affective route). Moreover, the affective route showed that levels of dread were especially influenced by citizens’ negative and positive emotions related to their previous flood hazard experiences. Negative emotions most often reflected fear and powerlessness, while positive emotions most frequently reflected feelings of solidarity. The results are consistent with the affect heuristic and the historical context of Dutch flood risk management. The great challenge for flood risk management is the accommodation of both cognitive and affective mechanisms in risk communications, especially when most people lack an emotional basis stemming from previous flood hazard events.     

Danger control and fear control during public health emergencies: Considering the roles of fear and hope in the EPPM across different levels of trust

Public health emergencies pose considerable threats to global health and safety. The control of these emergencies requires the efforts of healthcare professionals and calls for the public to take protective actions. The present study not only puts fear back in the extended parallel process model (EPPM) but also considers another similarly productive emotion: hope. We examined the mechanisms behind the effects of four cognitive perceptions on protective actions (i.e., danger control) and information avoidance (i.e., fear control). A national online survey was conducted with 1676 participants during the outbreak of COVID-19 in China from February 1 to 29, 2020. The results revealed that perceived severity and susceptibility could lead to fear, positively affecting protective actions. On the other hand, perceived response efficacy and self-efficacy induced hope, which was positively associated with protective actions but negatively associated with information avoidance. Furthermore, the mechanisms behind the relationships among cognitions, emotions, and behaviors varied across levels of trust in healthcare systems.     

Affective reactions influence investment decisions: evidence from a laboratory experiment with taxation

We experimentally investigate the effect of taxation of gains and losses on investment behavior. Based on the insights of economic research and psychological concepts, we expect subjects to react to taxation with behavioral and affective changes. Our main results are threefold: first, we show that taxation on gains and the possibility to deduct losses bias investment behavior, but in different directions. Since net payoffs are identical across all tax scenarios and therefore the same investment behavior is to be expected, these differences are in contrast to what a standard theory would predict. Second, we observe that different tax regulations have different effects on the affective and cognitive perception of our subjects. Third, with respect to possible connections of the affective and cognitive ratings, tax regulations, and investment decisions, we are able to show that arousal and risk perception fail to influence the decision making of participants, while there is a highly significant influence of valence perception on choice patterns.     

Security of Separated Data in Cloud Systems with Competing Attack Detection and Data Theft Processes

Empowered by virtualization technology, service requests from cloud users can be honored through creating and running virtual machines. Virtual machines established for different users may be allocated to the same physical server, making the cloud vulnerable to co‐residence attacks where a malicious attacker can steal a user's data through co‐residing their virtual machines on the same server. For protecting data against the theft, the data partition technique is applied to divide the user's data into multiple blocks with each being handled by a separate virtual machine. Moreover, early warning agents (EWAs) are deployed to possibly detect and prevent co‐residence attacks at a nascent stage. This article models and analyzes the attack success probability (complement of data security) in cloud systems subject to competing attack detection process (by EWAs) and data theft process (by co‐residence attackers). Based on the suggested probabilistic model, the optimal data partition and protection policy is determined with the objective of minimizing the user's cost subject to providing a desired level of data security. Examples are presented to illustrate effects of different model parameters (attack rate, number of cloud servers, number of data blocks, attack detection time, and data theft time distribution parameters) on the attack success probability and optimization solutions.     

Will you trust your new boss? The role of affective reactions to leadership succession

Affective reactions to the departure of work group leaders are proposed as an important determinant of members' trust-related judgments regarding new leaders. A field test of veterinary hospital employees evaluating new leaders revealed that the affective reaction to the departure of the prior group leader predicted trust when there was no history between the individuals. When there was history between the two individuals, the group member's evaluation of the new leader's ability on their prior job was a significant predictor of trust over and above their affective reaction to the succession. The relationships between affective reactions to succession and trust formation were replicated in a longitudinal simulation of trust formation in student groups. The implications of these findings for the study of trust in organizations and leadership succession processes in work groups are discussed.     

基于双层规划的反恐应急设施选址模型及算法

恐怖袭击常以人流密集地区的平民作为袭击目标，并存在突发性和随机性等特点，极易造成严重的袭击后果。通过反恐应急设施的合理布局可以缩短救援人员和物资的到达时间，从而减轻袭击后果。首先，对反恐应急设施选址问题进行描述，并将其构造为一类离散双层规划模型。其中，上层规划是关于政府选址的0-1规划问题，下层规划则是关于恐怖分子袭击目标选择的0-1规划问题。其次，结合模型和问题的特征设计算法，利用分支定界算法实现上层选址变量的隐枚举，同时通过下层问题的求解来确定上下界并判断是否满足分枝或剪枝的条件。最后，结合南疆地区的交通拓扑网络进行算例分析，结果证明有效的选址方案可以大大降低袭击损失。     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.     

A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

This article analyzes possible terrorist attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a "dirty bomb") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. We examined 36 attack scenarios and reduced them to two plausible or likely scenarios using qualitative judgments. For these two scenarios, we conducted a project risk analysis to understand the tasks terrorists need to perform to carry out the attacks and to determine the likelihood of the project's success. The consequences of a successful attack are described in terms of a radiological plume model and resulting human health and economic impacts. Initial findings suggest that the chances of a successful dirty bomb attack are about 10-40% and that high radiological doses are confined to a relatively small area, limiting health effects to tens or at most hundreds of latent cancers, even with a major release. However, the economic consequences from a shutdown of the harbors due to the contamination could result in significant losses in the tens of billions of dollars, including the decontamination costs and the indirect economic impacts due to the port shutdown. The implications for countering a dirty bomb attack, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack are discussed.     

A Social-Cognitive Perspective of Terrorism Risk Perception and Individual Response in Canada

The volume of research on terrorism has increased since the events of September 11, 2001. However, efforts to develop a contextualized model incorporating cognitive, social-contextual, and affective factors as predictors of individual responses to this threat have been limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate a series of hypotheses drawn from such a model that was generated from a series of interviews with members of the Canadian public. Data of a national survey on perceived chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives (CBRNE) terrorism threat and preparedness were analyzed. Results demonstrated that worry and behavioral responses to terrorism, such as individual preparedness, information seeking, and avoidance behaviors, were each a function of cognitive and social-contextual factors. As an affective response, worry about terrorism independently contributed to the prediction of behavioral responses above and beyond cognitive and social-contextual factors, and partially mediated the relationships of some of these factors with behavioral responses. Perceived coping efficacy emerged as the cognitive factor associated with the most favorable response to terrorism. Hence, findings highlight the importance of fostering a sense of coping efficacy to the effectiveness of strategies aimed at improving individual preparedness for terrorism.     

Defender–Attacker Games with Asymmetric Player Utilities

The presence of strategic attackers has become an important factor in the security and protection of systems, especially since the 9/11/2001 attacks, and considerable efforts have been dedicated to its study. When defending against the strategic attacker, many existing studies assume that the attacker would seek to minimize the defender's utility, which implies that the defender and attacker have symmetric utilities. However, the attacker's objective is determined by its own valuation of the system and target of the attack, which is not necessarily consistent with the defender's utility. If the attacker unexpectedly targets a different utility, then the defense strategy might no longer be optimal. In particular, the defense strategy could be inferior if the attacker's utility is not known to the defender. This study considers a situation where the defender's utility is the system survivability and the attacker's utility is the expected number of destroyed elements in the system. We investigate possible attack strategies under these two different utilities and compare (a) the conservative defense strategy when the attack utility is unknown to the defender with (b) the optimal defense strategy when the attack utility is known to the defender. We show that the conservative protection strategy is still optimal under asymmetric utilities when the contest intensity is smaller than one.