Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience

Communities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system‐wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time. To enable assessment of community sustainable resilience, we review current literature, consolidate available indicators and metrics, and develop a classification scheme and organizational structure to aid in identification, selection, and application of indicators within a dynamic assessment framework. A nonduplicative set of community sustainable resilience indicators and metrics is provided that can be tailored to a community's needs, thereby enhancing the ability to operationalize the assessment process.     

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

The risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. However, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. Individual mitigation actions may drive how a community's resilience evolves under repeated hazards. In this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region's vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the United States as our case study. To do this, we build an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate homeowners’ adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. Through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community's vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. In some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region's long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. We find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane—when their memory of the event is the strongest—it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.     

The Concept of Antifragility and its Implications for the Practice of Risk Analysis

Nassim Taleb's antifragile concept has been shown considerable interest in the media and on the Internet recently. For Taleb, the antifragile concept is a blueprint for living in a black swan world (where surprising extreme events may occur), the key being to love variation and uncertainty to some degree, and thus also errors. The antonym of “fragile” is not robustness or resilience, but “please mishandle” or “please handle carelessly,” using an example from Taleb when referring to sending a package full of glasses by post. In this article, we perform a detailed analysis of this concept, having a special focus on how the antifragile concept relates to common ideas and principles of risk management. The article argues that Taleb's antifragile concept adds an important contribution to the current practice of risk analysis by its focus on the dynamic aspects of risk and performance, and the necessity of some variation, uncertainties, and risk to achieve improvements and high performance at later stages.     

Rethinking Resilience Analytics

The concept of “resilience analytics” has recently been proposed as a means to leverage the promise of big data to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given recent advances in machine learning and other data‐driven analytic techniques, as well as the prevalence of high‐profile natural and man‐made disasters, the temptation to pursue resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. Indeed, we find big data analytics capable to support resilience to rare, situational surprises captured in analytic models. Nonetheless, this article examines the efficacy of resilience analytics by answering a single motivating question: Can big data analytics help cyber–physical–social (CPS) systems adapt to surprise? This article explains the limitations of resilience analytics when critical infrastructure systems are challenged by fundamental surprises never conceived during model development. In these cases, adoption of resilience analytics may prove either useless for decision support or harmful by increasing dangers during unprecedented events. We demonstrate that these dangers are not limited to a single CPS context by highlighting the limits of analytic models during hurricanes, dam failures, blackouts, and stock market crashes. We conclude that resilience analytics alone are not able to adapt to the very events that motivate their use and may, ironically, make CPS systems more vulnerable. We present avenues for future research to address this deficiency, with emphasis on improvisation to adapt CPS systems to fundamental surprise.     

How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods

Evaluating the economic impacts caused by capital destruction is an effective method for disaster management and prevention, but the magnitude of the economic impact of labor disruption on an economic system remains unclear. This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period. We exemplify this through a case study: the flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city, China, on July 6, 2016 (the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster”). The results indicate that (i) the indirect economic impacts of the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster” will underestimate 15.12% if we do not consider labor disruption; (ii) the economic impact in secondary industry caused by insufficient labor forces accounts for 42.27% of its total impact, while that in the tertiary industry is 36.29%, which can cause enormous losses if both industries suffer shocks; and (iii) the agricultural sector of Wuhan city experiences an increase in output demand of 0.07% that is created by the introduction of 50,000 short‐term laborers from outside the disaster area to meet the postdisaster reconstruction need. These results provide evidence for the important role of labor disruption and prove that it is a nonnegligible component of postdisaster economic recovery and postdisaster reduction.     

Overcoming barriers to access and utilization of hospice and palliative care services in African-American communities

While there is ample evidence to support the need for hospice and palliative care services for African Americans, only 8% of patients who utilize those services are from African-American communities. The underutilization of end-of-life and palliative care can be attributed to several barriers to service access including incompatibility between hospice philosophy and African-American religious, spiritual, and cultural beliefs; health care disparities; distrust of the medical establishment; physician influence; financial disincentives, and hospice admission criteria. Suggestions for dismantling barriers to care access include developing culturally competent professionals in the health and human services, expanding the philosophy of hospice to include spiritual advisors from client communities, and funding national initiatives to promote improved access to health care at all stages in the life cycle of members of all underserved communities.     

Models for investment in electronic commerce—financial perspectives with empirical evidence

Electronic Commerce (“eCommerce”) is a concept for trade based upon products and services that are being marketed, contracted, and paid for over the Internet. Consequently, electronic commerce demands for the investment in computer systems, marketing, logistics and payments.This paper will develop conditions for profitable investments in eCommerce with a special focus on outlays for information technology systems and sales management. If the services are made more standardized, if they do not change that often, or if they are well known to the customers so that there is little need for supplementary information, then the less costly will the information technology system become. The investment in marketing depends on how well known the brand name is to the customer. eCommerce firms “Born on the Net” have to spend substantially more resources on marketing than firms that “Move to the Net”.These investments may be seen as parts of a process, which aims to generate larger revenues to the firm, better services to the customers, a more efficient logistic system, and lower payment costs. A financial perspective is taken, where investment outlays for web services and marketing are balanced to cost savings when serving existing customers and net revenues from the generation of new customers. This financial approach is applied to five case studies from the sectors of capital goods, financial services, food, ornamental horticulture, and books and stationeries, where the given background from practice and conditions for success are developed in terms of a customer-base, margins, and sales growth. It is demonstrated that an existing customer base offline reduces the need for a marketing that is costly. It is also shown that a combination of services online and offline improves customer services and increases the extension of repeat purchases.     

A new lease for life? The return of vitalism in management and organization studies

This paper starts from a growing interest in the concept of concern, lived experience or “inhabiting” as part of the so-called “affective turn”. My main argument is that the notion of concern cannot be thought or understood without the concept of life. The concept of life, however, is somewhat of a taboo topic in the social sciences. I hold, nevertheless, that in order to reflect on their assumptions and to define concern for their own studies, scholars need to think about life and make a choice regarding the various approaches that can be taken. I therefore present and compare four vitalist approaches: romanticism and Lebensphilosophie, vitalism as ethos and pathos, neuroecosociality as well as vitalism as becoming.     

Correlates of Hazard Education Programs for Youth

Virtually no research has examined the hypothesized benefits of hazard education programs for youth in helping to increase community resilience. This exploratory study examined the role of these programs in helping to increase child and family resilience to a range of future hazards. Various aspects of hazards programs were examined in relation to a wide range of child- and parent-reported hazard adjustments in a sample of 560 schoolchildren. Additional factors assessed included childrens' risk perceptions, knowledge of response-related protective activities, and hazard-related emotional factors. Overall, the results supported the role of hazards education programs in increasing hazard adjustments in the home. The findings also supported various aspects of education program involvement as being related to more realistic risk perceptions, increased knowledge, and increased interaction with caregivers. Analyses identified the following features of these programs as being particularly important: provision of specific knowledge (e.g., an emergency management perspective); multiple program involvement over time; and, importantly, promotion of increased interaction between children and parents. Overall, findings supported the idea that hazards education programs for youth provide one gateway through which communities can increase their resilience to the effects of a major hazardous event. Findings also provided an initial foundation for further research in this emerging area.     

Quantifying Community Resilience Using Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods: A Case Study on Recovery from Power Outages

The ability to accurately measure recovery rate of infrastructure systems and communities impacted by disasters is vital to ensure effective response and resource allocation before, during, and after a disruption. However, a challenge in quantifying such measures resides in the lack of data as community recovery information is seldom recorded. To provide accurate community recovery measures, a hierarchical Bayesian kernel model (HBKM) is developed to predict the recovery rate of communities experiencing power outages during storms. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using cross‐validation and compared with two models, the hierarchical Bayesian regression model and the Poisson generalized linear model. A case study focusing on the recovery of communities in Shelby County, Tennessee after severe storms between 2007 and 2017 is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. The predictive accuracy of the models is evaluated using the log‐likelihood and root mean squared error. The HBKM yields on average the highest out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy. This approach can help assess the recoverability of a community when data are scarce and inform decision making in the aftermath of a disaster. An illustrative example is presented demonstrating how accurate measures of community resilience can help reduce the cost of infrastructure restoration.     

Shared Services Transformation: Conceptualization and Valuation from the Perspective of Real Options

In today's volatile global economy, where many organizations face severe pressure to downsize, the “shared services” model, in which a firm merges common functions performed by multiple units into a single service delivery organization, provides an innovative approach to make business more efficient and effective. To successfully implement shared services, firms need to strategically decide whether and how to pursue various service transformation alternatives such as simplification, standardization, consolidation, insourcing, or outsourcing. In this study, we develop the notion of real options into a unique theoretical lens for conceptualizing service organizations and their transformation in an uncertain business environment. Specifically, we view service organization as a set of strategic options that give the firm preferential access to future transformation opportunities. We create a taxonomy of these options, and introduce a decision methodology for valuing alternative shared services transformation approaches. We illustrate this methodology by applying it in a real business case to justify a global firm's decision regarding the transformation of its finance organization.     

Organizational Resilience: A Valuable Construct for Management Research?

Recently, the concept of resilience has gained new momentum in organization studies. It is held to be a very promising concept to explain how organizations can survive and thrive amidst adversity or turbulence. However, findings from an earlier review about resilience in the organizational and business context show that, although empirical research on the concept has increased, there is still a need for more clarity in terms of its measurement. The aim of this paper is to present a systematic review of the organizational resilience construct that covers both conceptual and operational issues. We discuss why researchers criticize resilience for being fuzzy and move on to identify and analyse existing literature under the lens of construct development and taxonomies. With this study, we aim to point out conceptual problems for future researchers to address conceptual clarity and to develop a clearer, more parsimonious concept. We conclude with a suggestion about future measurement.     

供应链韧性：适应复杂性——基于复杂系统管理视角

构建富有韧性的供应链已从企业层面关注的问题上升到行业、地区和国家层面战略，成为应对当前社会经济发展复杂局面和提升国家安全与竞争力水平的重要举措。本文在阐述了供应链是一个社会型多中心共享共治的复杂适应性系统基础上，指出供应链韧性是供应链系统行为与功能整体适应环境复杂性变动的一种能力标志；供应链韧性的复杂整体性属性特征需要通过复杂系统思维范式转移形成新的研究范式与方法论；供应链韧性理论的学术价值主要不是针对常规问题，而要看它应对供应链失稳、风险、应急、功能退化等韧性危机是否有效和效能如何；供应链韧性有着具体特定的真实世界；解释、分析和揭示供应链韧性复杂现象和客观规律需要充分关注供应链的独特性与话语语境，没有两个现实的供应链韧性机理是完全一样的；供应链韧性是当今供应链研究领域中的一个大问题、难问题，具有重要的学术前沿性、现实性与挑战性，应扎根在我国供应链管理的丰富实践土壤中，从基础性的学术体系、理论体系与话语体系夯实研究基础，而不宜过于被供应链韧性初始定义中的“断”与“不断”捆住手脚。     

Toward Disaster‐Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments

Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human‐induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross‐sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.     

A Factor Analysis Approach Toward Reconciling Community Vulnerability and Resilience Indices for Natural Hazards

The concepts of vulnerability and resilience help explain why natural hazards of similar type and magnitude can have disparate impacts on varying communities. Numerous frameworks have been developed to measure these concepts, but a clear and consistent method of comparing them is lacking. Here, we develop a data-driven approach for reconciling a popular class of frameworks known as vulnerability and resilience indices. In particular, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis on a comprehensive set of variables from established indices measuring community vulnerability and resilience at the U.S. county level. The resulting factor model suggests that 50 of the 130 analyzed variables effectively load onto five dimensions: wealth, poverty, agencies per capita, elderly populations, and non–English-speaking populations. Additionally, the factor structure establishes an objective and intuitive schema for relating the constituent elements of vulnerability and resilience indices, in turn affording researchers a flexible yet robust baseline for validating and expanding upon current approaches.     

Resilience: A Review Using a Grounded Integrated Occupational Approach

Resilience, the ability to adapt to adversity and endure job demands, is growing in prominence in the management literature with limited regard to occupational influences. Often examined at the individual level with fragmented conceptualizations, it can be a trait, capacity, or a process. We conduct a review of (1) management studies and (2) content from O*NET for 11 occupations and disciplinary studies taking a grounded approach to synthesize themes to develop an integrated occupational resilience framework. Our review suggests that resilience is individually and occupationally determined as part of a multi-level system. Our review shows that specific occupational tasks and contextual demands imply different connotations of what exactly “resilience” means and how contexts may constrain or foster resiliency. Occupational resilience involves (1) multiple conceptual strands related to accessing resources (trait, capacity, and processes); (2) positive and negative triggers that are occupationally distinguished; (3) different resilience types (cognitive, emotional, and physical) that vary in need, breadth, and importance across occupations; (4) a dynamic phenomenon that occurs within and across career stages; (5) both content-general, and job-specific occupational tensions; and (6) work and nonwork domains. Multi-level occupational-specific and comparative studies, adaptive performance and risk taking across the work–nonwork interface are highlighted areas for future research.     

Opportunities and Challenges for Public Libraries to Enhance Community Resilience

This study bridges a gap between public library and emergency management policy versus practice by examining the role of public libraries in the community resource network for disaster recovery. Specifically, this study identifies the opportunities and challenges for public libraries to fulfill their role as a FEMA‐designated essential community organization and enhance community resilience. The results indicate there are several opportunities for libraries to enhance community resilience by offering technology resources and assistance; providing office, meeting, and community living room space; serving as the last redundant communication channel and a repository for community information and disaster narratives; and adapting or expanding services already offered to meet the changing needs of the community. However, libraries also face challenges in enhancing community resilience, including the temptation to overcommit library capacity and staff capability beyond the library mission and a lack of long‐term disaster plans and collaboration with emergency managers and government officials. Implications for library and emergency management practice and crisis research are discussed.     

Co‐opetition and Investment for Supply‐Chain Resilience

This paper considers the problem of disruption risk management in global supply chains. We consider a supply chain with two participants, who face interdependent losses resulting from supply chain disruptions such as terrorist strikes and natural hazards. The Harsanyi–Selten–Nash bargaining framework is used to model the supply chain participants' choice of risk mitigation investments. The bargaining approach allows a framing of both joint financing of mitigation activities before the fact and loss‐sharing net of insurance payouts after the fact. The disagreement outcome in the bargaining game is assumed to be the result of the corresponding non‐cooperative game. We describe an incentive‐compatible contract that leads to First Best investment and equal “gain” for all players, when the solution is “interior” (as it almost certainly is in practice). A supplier that has superior security practices (i.e., is inherently safer) exploits its informational advantage by extracting an “information rent” in the usual spirit of incomplete information games. We also identify a special case of this contract, which is robust to moral hazard. The role of auditing in reinforcing investment incentives is also examined.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.