欧债危机下的养老金制度改革——从福利国家到高债国家的教训

文章从人口老龄化的角度,分析了老龄化成本的含义和构成及其导致希腊陷入债务危机的诱因,认为欧洲尤其是希腊的养老金体系存在的替代率过高、待遇率严重失衡、养老金财富总值超出支付能力等问题提升了老龄化的财务成本;作者在分析了欧债危机下世界改革养老金的趋势后,认为中国养老金制度中存在参数不合理、缺乏个人激励机制、市场激励因素弱化、再分配因素失衡等潜在的财务风险,建议重视第二支柱的建设以部分转移第一支柱的财务风险,逐渐提高退休年龄以重建科学的制度参数,重塑账户的激励功能以增强制度收入能力,建立制度防火墙以规避潜在财务风险。     

从四川计划生育条例实施现状看国家计划生育立法的必要性

1995年11月,笔者随同全国人大教科文卫委员会人口与计划生育立法调研组,参加了对四川省计划生育条例执行情况和有关工作情况的调查.在调查中,笔者参加了省人大、省高级人民法院、省计划生育委员会、省法制局,以及乐山、雅安两地的市、县、镇各级人大、计生委、工商、法院公安、城建、民政等部门与调查组共同举行的座谈会,了解了许多有关贯彻实施《四川省计划生育条例》《全国流动人口计划生育管理办法》和开展“三结合”情况,以及关于对国家人口与计划生育立法的建议,并随同走访了峨眉、雅安名山县的乡、镇、村,同当地的干部、计生员、计生协会会员进行了座谈,了解了许多基层计划生育工作中存在的具体问题和困难.     

从西方国家的“失业”看我国的“下岗”

一、“失业”与“下岗”的新特点现代经济学家认为，实现充分就业只是一种理想，实践中很难做到，无论是西方国家的失业或是我国的下岗，从９０年代以来，都出现了一些新的特点。１．诱导原因：我国下岗职工与国民经济发展、产业结构调整有着密切联系，目前我国不景气行业...     

从承德人口控制模式看经济欠发达地区的计划生育工作

从承德人口控制模式看经济欠发达地区的计划生育工作于学军引言八十年代中期，我国经济学界曾把以乡镇企业的发展带动经济起飞的发展模式概括为“苏南发展模式”，把以个体经济为主体的发展模式称为“温州模式”，把市场经济发育较早的广东经济称为“广东模式”。然而，在...     

从生育高峰出生同期群看我国农村养老模式的选择

第一次生育高峰期出生的人口,受到国家计划生育政策的影响,生育的孩子数目减少,是未来农村老年贫困的高发群体。国家应该对他们的老年生活给予资助。最后,对建立普享型老年津贴的可行性进行了分析。     

从“五普”数据看吉林省人口死亡水平和死亡模式

由 2 0 0 0年人口普查有关吉林省人口死亡状况的数据计算得到的用于衡量人口死亡水平的几个指标显示 ,吉林省总人口死亡率、婴儿死亡率等自建国以来持续降低 ,预期寿命不断增长 ,居民健康水平呈良性发展。但是 ,总人口死亡水平持续降低的同时 ,死亡模式还存在着明显的城乡差异 ,吉林省农村地区的妇幼保健水平以及养老保障工作还有待于进一步加强和提高。     

从上海看人口负增长

上海人口负增长的出现为我们提供了一个探索人口负增长现象的范例和机会。人类今天正在为减级人口增长并为早日实现零增长而努力。上海的事例说明，人口要达到零增长或负增长，从人口因素来说，要满足生育率下降和人口结构老化两个条件；从非人口因素来说，要求社会经济的发达和计划生育的努力。另一方面，人口零增长的实现并不意味着一个社会人口问题的终结，而是变得更为复杂了。     

从生态学看人口问题

生态学是一门新兴的科学。它所阐明的关于生态系统完整性的观点、生态平衡的规律等等,使人们意识到了在自然界中,的确存在着错综复杂的因果链和具有一定的规律的机制,同时,也使人们明确地看到,人口的增长已经强烈地影响到了自然界的因果链,使生态系统的稳定与平衡受到巨大的扰动与破坏,     

从两种模式的对比看乡镇企业发达地区的生育率转变机制

从两种模式的对比看乡镇企业发达地区的生育率转变机制朱宇近年来，生育率转变的社会经济机制已成为人口研究的重要课题。〔１〕在这方面的研究中，乡镇企业对农民生育观念转化和生育率下降的影响必须引起足够的重视。由于乡镇企业发展导致我国许多地区农村社会经济的巨...     

中国高龄死亡模式及其与瑞典、日本的比较分析

本文发现只有二个参数的莰尼斯托 (Kannisto)模型 (即简化的罗吉斯特模型 )对中国高龄老人死亡率的拟合效果好于其他五个模型。中国与瑞典、日本 96岁以上的年龄别死亡率比较相近 ,而中国 96岁以下的年龄别死亡率显著高于瑞典、日本。我们认为这一有趣的趋同现象可能主要是由中国高龄老人“劣淘优存”的选择性更强而形成的。我们还发现与发达国家模式类似 ,中国的死亡率随着年龄增加而升高的趋势在 96岁以后的特高年龄段减缓。     

The Contribution of Scenic Beauty Indicators in Estimating Environmental Welfare Measures: A Case Study

Aesthetic indicators of landscapes, expressedas individual scenic beauty estimates, may beused as proxies of individuals' specificaesthetic values, and improve the properties ofwelfare estimates produced by contingentvaluation models. This work presents resultsfrom an interdisciplinary study where forestscenic beauty indicators are utilized in aneconomic valuation study approximating welfareestimates from increased forest fireprotection. The omission of scenic beautyindicators from the economic valuation ofenvironmental resources produces biased andoverestimated welfare measures. Combiningeconomic and environmental indicatorssignificantly improves the explanatory power ofeconomic valuation models and of the producedwelfare measures. Such a combination, however,is only possible when carried out byinterdisciplinary research teams. The resultsof such research are significant toenvironmental and natural resource policymakers and planners.     

The Medieval Demographic System of the Nordic Countries

It is generally agreed that the marital instability and casual mating characteristic of West Indian family structure depress fertility. These conditions are traced to the mating organization of the slaves. The stresses placed on the Mrican family systems of the slaves are obvious: the continued importation of slaves, most of them young adult males; the ruthless separation of kin through sale or removal; the overwhelming authority of the master, reducing the dependence of children on their parents and the economic role of the male household head. Yet, in spite of these stresses, there is evidence of strong bonds of kinship and sense of family among the slaves.     

The Swedish Tant: A Marker of Female Aging

This article presents and analyzes findings from interviews with women aged 45–65; popular magazines targeting women in this age category, and popular books and blogs on a Swedish age-sensitive concept, tant. The term can be used in many different senses, ranging from polite to derogatory, connoting “aunt,” or “granny,” but also “little old lady” and “biddy”; the term tantig translating to “frumpish.” The article discusses different representations of tant, how she is used as a symbol of invisibility and no longer being seen as a sexual being, but outdated. The concept is used as a warning, indicating an unwanted way to grow old, when addressing middle-aged and older women. As of recently, tant has come to be celebrated by young women, praised for moral courage, for thrift and being represented as free from the male gaze, no longer aiming to please or fretting about appearances. The article sheds light on the different uses of the concept, where who is categorizing whom is of utmost importance. The tant is used as a symbol for doing age either by derogation or by celebration.     

传统社会人口周期模型--以古代中国为案例

为了描述前工业社会经济和人口的基本进程,作者建立了一个组合模型,并用1世纪和2世纪古代中国的数据资料进行验证与分析。     

A Ecological Model of Well-Being in Child Welfare Referred Children

Despite its social, political and economic relevance, child well-being remains a challenging construct to define and measure accurately. This holds true especially for children growing up in at-risk families, where their development is hindered by many adverse circumstances. Typically, the well-being of child welfare (CW) referred children has been conceptualized as the absence of negative outcomes, and the study of its determinants has been limited to children’s micro-systems. In this study, we aimed to obtain a suitable indicator of child well-being and to test a model of the determinants of CW referred children’s well-being including parental, family and wider contextual variables. The sample included 249 parents and 46 case managers from Portuguese and Spanish CW services. A three-domain solution from selected items of the Child Well-Being Scales (Physical, Academic and Socioemotional) was tested and confirmed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis. The results of structural equation modeling for each domain revealed that risk factors nested in the wider context and those related to material disadvantage were the most powerful predictors of physical well-being, while parenting and family functioning variables predicted better both academic and socio-emotional well-being. Our findings suggest that different risk and protective factors matter for different outcomes and that most of these factors are associated with each other. Therefore, interventions with at-risk children must take this specificity into account when targeting each domain of well-being, and efforts could be allocated to a few modifiable dimensions, which would in turn positively affect other parental and family factors.     

The Relationship between Economic Development and Social Welfare: A New Adjusted GDP Measure of Welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue ofpreparation of social welfare measurements onthe basis of an unadjusted Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). This paper extends this methodto incorporate cost-benefit analysis ofeconomic growth in a growing economy incalculating the adjusted GDP, termed as thecost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approachis empirically applied to Thailand. There arestark differences between GDP per capita and CBadjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as anindicator of social welfare if the GDPestimates are undertaken within a cost-benefitanalysis framework.     

The Multidimensionality of Welfare State Attitudes: A European Cross-National Study

When evaluating the various aspects of the welfare state, people assess some aspects more positively than others. Following a multidimensional approach, this study systematically argues for a framework composed of seven dimensions of the welfare state, which are subject to the opinions of the public. Using confirmatory factor analyses, this conceptual framework of multidimensional welfare attitudes was tested on cross-national data from 22 countries participating in the 2008 European Social Survey. According to our empirical analysis, attitudes towards the welfare state are multidimensional; in general, people are very positive about the welfare state’s goals and range, while simultaneously being critical of its efficiency, effectiveness and policy outcomes. We found that these dimensions relate to each other differently in different countries. Eastern/Southern Europeans combine a positive attitude towards the goals and role of government with a more critical attitude towards the welfare state’s efficiency and policy outcomes. In contrast, Western/Northern Europeans’ attitudes towards the various welfare state dimensions are based partly on a fundamentally positive or negative stance towards the welfare state.     

流动人口空间体系及其与城镇体系的相关分析-以武汉城市圈为例

利用2000年第五次人口普查的流动人口统计数据,采用空间统计分析方法以及典型相关分析方法,研究武汉城市圈流动人口的空间体系以及流动人口空间体系与城市体系的相互影响关系。对武汉城市圈流动人口空间结构的研究发现,武汉城市圈的流动人口主要集中在武汉,武汉是主要的迁入人口的集中地。此外,武汉城市圈的城市体系和流动人口体系之间存在着相关关系。地区间人口流动的增强会使各个城市的人口规模增加,以及人口素质结构提升,同时也会使武汉城市圈各个城市之间的联系加强;城市体系对于流动人口体系的影响相对要大些,城市人口规模、素质结构,以及空间结构都会影响到流动人口的规模和流动人口的空间结构。     

全年龄人口死亡模型构建及应用——以江苏省为例

人口死亡特征不仅具有时间和区域属性,同时也具有年龄属性,多重属性决定了人口死亡规律的复杂性。在研究儿童少年期、青壮年期以及中老年期人口死亡模型的基础上,以江苏省为例构建了基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型,并对江苏省人口死亡过程进行了研究。研究表明：基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型能够细致刻画人口死亡过程依年龄变化的特点;江苏省儿童少年期、青壮年期和中老年期人口死亡模式可以分别采用威布尔对数线性模型、三次多项式模型和罗吉斯蒂模型来描述;近年来江苏省人口死亡水平不断下降,但各年龄层死亡水平下降特点不尽相同。     

社会福利制度的理论框架

单独使用现有的任何一套社会福利理论框架,都无法使我们比较透彻地理解叠床架屋的社会福利体系.本文在逐一介绍和分析了三种主要的社会福利制度理论体系之后认为,这些理论在现实生活中存在着大量的交叉和重叠现象.如果换个角度,通过缴费和支付去观察具体的社会福利计划,就会发现,在社会再分配和个人缴费这两种主要的社会计划原则之间已经出现了越来越多的相互混合和互换的状态,社会政策领域中的意识形态分野也因而出现了混乱的局面.为了进一步探索社会福利制度的逻辑共性和经验共性,本文设计了一个多层福利理论框架,希望能为这方面的研究提供一个新的视角.