Family planning achievements as suggested by changes of total fertility and party birth rate]

The dynamic characteristics of China's 5 distinct stages of population development since the People's Republic of China was established in 1949, namely, 1950-1958, 1959-1963, 1964-1970, 1971-1981, and 1982-present, are outlined and discussed. By tracing both the overall rate of population growth and age-specific fertility rates for women aged 15-45 (5-year groups), a clear pattern emerges which indicates that the rates of early and late fertility (ages groups 15-19 and 30-45) are significantly declining. This is interpreted as a key factor in the overall decline in fertility rate. Annual statistics showing the number of children per woman of childbearing age and interval between 1st marriage and 1st birth are compared and discussed. It is concluded that the overall decline in birth rate and fertility rate since the 1970's is attributable to China's successful family planning campaign.     

Socialist system creates favourable social environment for fertility decline in China

The Chinese experience suggests that the socialist system can create more favorable conditions for a decline in fertility than the capitalist system. This is related to 5 factors: 1) changes in the traditional functions of the nuclear family; 2) popularization of education and the transmission of culture; 3) improvements in the status of women; 4) rapid decreases in mortality, especially infant mortality; and 5) social security for the aged. In addition, the structure of social organizations and the widespread dissemination of information about birth control methods have facilitated family planning practice. The impact of theswe structural factors has been intensfied by the Chinese social environment, which has changed individual attitudes toward family size. Overall, the social environment has created attitudinal change while implementaton of the national family planning policy has made the fertility decline in China possible.     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

An inquiry into expected lifetime fertility]

Expected lifetime fertility rate, or completed fertility rate, refers specifically to the cumulative fertility rate of a cohort of women after the age of reproducibility; however, in China's case, "reproduccibility" virtually ends after a woman gives birth to a 2nd child (assuming both children live). Hypothetical situations specific to China's system of family planning are presented and analyzed; statistical formulas and lifetime fertility rates (including allowances for violations of the e child policy), are provided.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

An analysis of the fertility transition in developing countries]

Most developing countries are in the demographic stage of early mortality, high birth rates and high rates of natural population increase. A characteristic of developing countries is that after World War ii, particularly since the 1960s fertility rates are on the decline, even though they still remain high. The fertility rate of developed countries fell from a 1950 rate of 22.9/1000 to 15/1000 in 1982, a decrease of 34.5%, whereas the fertility rate of developing countries hovered around 43/1000 between 1930-1950, 40.6/1000 during the 1960s and 33/1000 in 1982. Between 1950 and 1982 there was a decrease of 24.8%. But the main reason for this decrease is the decline in the last 20 years of the fertility rates of China and India, whose rates fell 34.9% from 1960-1980. Changes in fertility rates are influenced by the age structure of a country, as seen in the changing age structure of developing countries from 1960-80. For example, an increase in fertility rates was 1 consequence of an increase in the number of fertile women aged 15-45 from 42.6% in 1960 to 44.4% in 1980. Nevertheless, there exists some sort of birth control, whether conscious or subconscious, because the number of births per fertile woman is 3-4 fewer than the 14-15 children a woman can theoretically bear. The reason for changes in fertility rates in developing countries can be traced to marriage and family customs, and even more important, to social and economic factors. For example, Asian, African and Latin American cultures tend to support early marriages. When the fertility rates of developed and developing countries are looked at for a comparable period, then the rate of decrease for developing countries is slower than developed countries. But, if the comparison is made for a transitional period (i.e., industrialization), then the rate of decrease for developing countries is faster than for developed countries. Currently there are 25 developing countries that have attained a fertility rate of 25/1000 or lower, and 52 developing countries with a rate of 35/1000.     

Implementation of China's population policy

On July 1, 1982 China's 3rd national population census reported the population of the 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions on the mainland at 1,008,175,288, showing a net increase of 460,000,000 or 84% over the 548,000,000 recorded at the end of 1949. At this time China's population is about 1/4 of the world. Its population policy must conform to her national conditions and will be successful only to the extent that it does so. Discussion focuses on the main features of China's population policy. In 1953 the State Council instructed the Ministry of Health to support birth control by providing contraceptives. It also ratified provisions concerning contraception and induced abortions. In 1962 the State Council issued "Instructions on Conscientious Advocacy of Family Planning." China not only advocates and publicized family planning but also takes specific measures. Special administrative organizations were established in 1964 to oversee scientific research, production, and supply of contraceptives and to provide couples of childbearing age with free contraceptives. An all round attack on family planning work in 1966 led to unchecked childbirth resulting in rapid population growth. In 1971 Premier Zhou Enlai reiterated the importance of population control in 1971 and asked that it be incorporated into the 4th Five Year Plan for the development of the national economy. Family planning was incorporated into the Constitution in 1978. China's 20 years of experiences with family planning suggest that a country's population policy becomes effective only with repeated efforts. The 10-year period of turmoil undermined the enforcement of the population policy. Recently the State Family Planning Commission organized a nationwide fertility survey which indicated tremendous successes for China's population control drive. The total fertility rate dropped from 5.29 in the 1950s to 2.63 in the 1980s. The population census shows that the momentum of China's population growth cannot be checked without strict measures because the population is characterized by a huge base figure, a young age composition, and a fertility rate much higher than a population replacement level. China's population policy is formulated in line with her national conditions. Specific provisions for family planning reflect different ways to deal with different people.     

Population development and changes of China's minority nationalities]

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a nation composed of many ethnic groups. After the Communist victory of 1947, the government announced that there were 55 minority nationalities. The 1982 census provides demographic statistics concerning the position of those minorities within the population of the PRC. Since 1964, minority population has increased more rapidly than the population of the Han majority. Between 1953 and 1982, China's population increased 73.2%. The Han population increased 71.2%, the minorities, 90.4%. According to the 1982 census, the total fertility rate of the village-dwelling minorities in 1981 was 5.1%, while the fertility rate of the majority was 2.7%. The mortality rate of the various minorities decreased to the level of that of the Han. Consequently, the percentage of minorities in the total population also increased, from 5.8% of the total population in 1964 to 6.7% in 1982. The reasons for this increase include the following: the change in population reproduction brought about by democratic and socialist reform; the identification of minorities; improvement in health and medical facilities; the reinstatement of and change in racial minority policy promulgated in 1978; and intermarriage between minorities and Han Chinese. Although the minorities account for only 6.7% of China's total population, their distribution constitutes 62.5% of the nation's total area. In the past, the minorities have scattered to the various parts of the country and mingled with other ethnic groups. The high density of minorities is concentrated in the plains where the climate is mild and agricultural produce, such as wheat, rice, and corn, are cultivated. The lowest density areas with respect to the minorities are the inland highlands, deserts, and cold pastoral areas. The age structure of the minorities is young; the marriageable population is numerous; and the fertility rate is high. The educational standard of the minorities has been greatly enhanced, but is still lower than that of the Han Chinese.     

India's population: second and growing

Attention in this discussion of the population of India is directed to the following: international comparisons, population pressures, trends in population growth (interstate variations), sex ratio and literacy, urban-rural distribution, migration (interstate migration, international migration), fertility and mortality levels, fertility trends (birth rate decline, interstate fertility differentials, rural-urban fertility decline, fertility differentials by education and religion, marriage and fertility), mortality trends (mortality differentials, health care services), population pressures on socioeconomic development (per capita income and poverty, unemployment and employment, increasing foodgrain production, school enrollment shortfalls), the family planning program, implementing population policy statements, what actions would be effective, and goals and prospects for the future. India's population, a total of 684 million persons as of March 1, 1981, is 2nd only to the population of China. The 1981 population was up by 136 million persons, or 24.75%, over the 548 million enumerated in the 1971 census. For 1978, India's birth and death rates were estimated at 33.3 and 14.2/1000 population, down from about 41.1 and 18.9 during the mid-1960s. India's current 5-year plan has set a goal of a birth rate of 30/1000 population by 1985 and "replacement-level" fertility--about 2.3 births per woman--by 1996. The acceleration in India's population growth has come mainly in the past 3 decades and is due primarily to a decline in mortality that has markedly outstripped the fertility decline. The Janata Party which assumed government leadership in March 1977 did not dismantle the family planning program, but emphasis was shifted to promote family planning "without any compulsion, coercion or pressures of any sort." The policy statement stressed that efforts were to be directed towards those currently underserved, mainly in rural areas. Hard targets were rejected. Over the 1978-1981 period the family planning program slowly recovered. By March 1981, 33.4 million sterilizations had been performed since 1956 when statistics were 1st compiled. Another 3 million couples were estimated to be using IUDs and conventional contraceptives.     

A comment on ‘social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline’ by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951–1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

An analysis of the fertility of Chinese women]

The 1982 census provided detailed information on fertility in China. It recorded 20,689,704 births in 1981, producing a birth rate of 2.1%, a decrease, respectively, of 43% and more than 50% in comparison with 1952 and 1963. The birth rate has varied widely over the last 30 years, from 3.6% in the early 1950's, to 1.8% in 1961, after a planned birth program was begun, to a record high of 3.7% in 1962 following the economic recovery, to 3.3% in 1970, after a gradual decline through the 1960's. By 1981 the birth rate had declined to 2.1%, clearly resulting from the intense planned fertility promotion begun in the early 1970's. In the mid- and late 50's, urban birth rate was consistently higher than rural, with the mass move to the cities at the beginning of the People's Republic. General economic development after 1957 brought simultaneous declines of both urban and rural rates, both reaching a low point in 1961. Age structure of the population also has an influence, depending on the proportion of childbearing women in the population. In 1981, the fertility of China's childbearing women was 8.3%, lower than that of the developing countries, but higher than the developed countries. By age group, the fertility rates reached 14.7% and 23.9% respectively in women between 20-24 and 25-29 years of age; the legal marriage age is 20. The fertility rate in large cities is generally lower than that of provinces. Higher educational and socio-economic level also exert an inverse influence on fertility rates; in low socio-economic areas the rate reached 3.5%, and in more advanced areas it was held to 2.2%. In all professions with the exception of agriculture, fishing, and forestry, the percentage of families with 1 child was 81.8%. Since planned fertility was implemented, the overall fertility rate has dropped from 3% to 2%. China's fertility mode has changed to that of developed countries, with high intensity between 20 and 29 years of age. Appropriate measures should be taken to lower the fertility rate in different regions.     

Vital rates in India 1961-71 estimated from 1971 census data

Abstract In the last decade the increase in the population of India, while, of course, very large, was smaller than predicted by official forecasts. With the use of recent census and sample registration data - in the absence of age-specific rates and adequate vital statistics - this paper provides estimates of fertility and mortality through the reverse-survival and forward-projection methods. Birth rates are estimated as 40·5-42, death rates as 18-20, and life expectancy at birth as 45-46 years. Mortality decline had been smaller than forecast but more than during any comparable period in the past, even though current mortality levels, particularly infant mortality, are still high. Males continue to have a longer life expectation than females, with a difference that has widened in the past decade. The decline of between seven and ten per cent in the crude birth rate is largely due to changes in marital fertility and to some extent to changes in age and marital composition. Because of greater decline in death rates than birth rates, the 1961-71 decade shows a higher rate of population growth than previous periods.     

Sub-Saharan Africa: population pressures on development

The population of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 434 million in 1984, is expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2025. The birth rate, currently 48/1000 population, continues to increase, and the death rate, 17/1000, is declining. Rapid population growth has curtailed government efforts to provide adequate nutrition, preserve the land base essential for future development, meet the demand for jobs, education, and health services, and address overcrowding in urban areas. Low education, rural residence, and low incomes are key contributors to the area's high fertility. Other factors include women's restricted roles, early age at marriage, a need for children as a source of security and support in old age, and limited knowledge of and access to modern methods of contraception. Average desired family size, which is higher than actual family size in most countries, is 6-9 children. Although government leaders have expressed ambivalence toward development of population policies and family planning programs as a result of the identification of such programs with Western aid donors, the policy climat is gradually changing. By mid-1984, at least 13 of the 42 countries in the region had indicated that they consider current fertility rates too high and support government and/or private family planning programs to reduce fertility. In addition, 26 countries in the region provide some government family planning services, usually integrated with maternal and child health programs. However, 10 countries in the region do not support family planning services for any reason. Unfortunately, sub-Saharan Africa has not yet produced a family planning program with a measurable effect on fertility that could serve as a model for other countries in the region. Social and economic change is central to any hope of fertility reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Lower infant and child mortality rates, rising incomes, higher education, greater economic and social opportunities for women, and increased security would provide a climate more conducive to fertility decline. Given the limited demand, great sensitivity must be shown in implementing family planning programs.     

Retrospect and prospect of China's population

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.     

Demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand

Abstract Data from a national rural and urban sample survey are analysed in order to examine various demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand. Marital fertility rates found for Thailand are among the highest in Asia. Particularly noteworthy is the persistence of high fertility at older ages of childbearing for rural women. Cumulative fertility shows a pronounced relationship with age at marriage and current marital status. Women who marry at an older age or who experience disruption of their marriages are clearly more likely to have fewer children ever born. Differences in both current and cumulative fertility are strongly associated with residence. Rural women who constitute the vast majority of Thai women, experience the highest fertility, Bangkok-Thonburi women experience the lowest fertility and provincial urban women are characterized by an intermediate fertility level which is closer, however, to the experience of their counterparts in the capital than in the countryside. Rural-urban fertility differences are mitigated but by no means eliminated by differences in infant mortality. In both rural and urban areas a positive association between cumulative fertility and infant morality is evident. Breast-feeding, commonly practised for extended periods-among both rural and urban Thai women, undoubtedly serves to some extent as an intervening variable in this relationship. A comparison of current fertility with cumulative fertility strongly suggests that a decline in marital fertility has been under way recently among urban women, especially those residing in the capital, but not at all among rural women. Although it seems safe to assume that the urban fertility decline results in large part from an increasing use of contraception among urban women, those still in the reproductive ages who were using or had previously used birth control were characterized by higher cumulative fertility than women who had never practised contraception. Evidently couples resort to family planning only late in the family building process after they have already achieved or exceeded the number of children they wish to have.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

中国农村居民家庭的生育决策模型与实证分析

根据"五普"和"六普"资料,人口总和生育率显著低于世代更替水平,这表明中国人口进入了低生育水平发展阶段。关于这一问题的合理解释是除了计划生育政策影响外,农村家庭生育决策的变化可能是内生的重要影响因素。基于生育决策模型及实证分析,得出这样的结论:在土地量保持不变的条件下,农村居民家庭的生育决策主要取决于收入水平和抚养子女的成本。农村居民家庭可能会依据"量质权衡"减少生育子女,这可能是导致中国人口生育水平下降的根本原因。     

Temporal and spatial analysis of fertility decline in Taiwan

Abstract The conventional mode of evaluating the success of family planning programmes has frequently emphasized the activities of the programmes, rather than their ultimate effects. This paper examines the role of family planning programmes in inducing fertility decline in Taiwan. First it presents the secular trends of Taiwanese fertility changes, pointing out that family planning programmes began only after the birth rate had already shown a substantial decline. Secondly, it specifically evaluates the impact of family planning programmes in the Taichung areas, since its success has been widely proclaimed. Finally, it is stipulated that the dynamics of Taiwanese fertility changes may be related to declining infant mortality and accelerating educational development, and that these institutional effects, rather than the family planning programmes, should be credited with changes in fertility.     

Population change in the former Soviet Republics

Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.