Age at marriage as a variable in socio-economic differentials in fertility

Earlier studies have pointed out that socio-economic differentials in fertility depend upon both religion and farm background. These studies report a negative relation between fertility and socio-economic status for non-Catholic American couples in contrast to a positive relation for Catholics. Likewise, a negative differential for American couples with farm background has been observed in contrast to no differential for twogeneration urbanites. Age at marriage is a third such interaction variable: the strong negative socio-economic differential observed when wife’s age at marriage is under 19 diminishes with advancing age at marriage and becomes positive for wives who married at age 23 or older. Moreover, for both non-Catholics and Catholics, couples with and without farm background, the differential by wife’s education is negative when wife’s age at marriage is young, positive when her age at marriage is old. Both sociological factors (the incidence of non-familial adult roles) and differential fecundity appear to underlie the interaction. The analysis is based on reports of once-married, white, nonfarm wives aged 30 to 39 included in the 1955 or 1960 Growth of American Families Studies or the 1965 National Fertility Study (approximately 1,000 in each survey).     

Retrospective evidence of a decline of fertility and child mortality in Bangladesh

A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961–1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952–1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve understanding of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry.     

Residency differentials in Mormon fertility

Abstract Although one of the most consistent findings of recent fertility studies is the convergence of the religious differentials in fertility, few data have been analysed to discover Mormon fertility trends and differentials. This paper, based on data obtained on 1,001 Mormon couples, is concerned with describing the effects that the dispersion of Mormon families from the Mormon centre in Utah to surrounding areas with various social conditions is having on the fertility of the re-located Mormon families. Data presented clearly show that such families do, on the average, have a lower fertility than do their Mormon contemporaries residing in the homogeneous Mormon society in Utah. They probably compromise their religious obligations to have children with the contradicting demands of their new environment. Their loyalty to these religious beliefs, however, is confirmed by data which show that they tend to have larger families in their new environments than do their non-Mormon neighbours.     

Residency differentials in Mormon fertility

Although one of the most consistent findings of recent fertility studies is the convergence of the religious differentials in fertility, few data have been analysed to discover Mormon fertility trends and differentials. This paper, based on data obtained on 1,001 Mormon couples, is concerned with describing the effects that the dispersion of Mormon families from the Mormon centre in Utah to surrounding areas with various social conditions is having on the fertility of the re-located Mormon families. Data presented clearly show that such families do, on the average, have a lower fertility than do their Mormon contemporaries residing in the homogeneous Mormon society in Utah. They probably compromise their religious obligations to have children with the contradicting demands of their new environment. Their loyalty to these religious beliefs, however, is confirmed by data which show that they tend to have larger families in their new environments than do their non-Mormon neighbours.     

Rural-Urban fertility differentials in Southern Nigeria: An assessment of some available evidence

The dearth of information on fertility in Nigeria has hitherto impeded efforts to arrive at a consistent pattern of rural-urban fertility differentials in Nigeria. Attempts were made from the mid-sixties onwards to analyse the pattern of rural-urban fertility differentials in some parts of Southern Nigeria from a few independent sources. One such attempt was made by Olusanya; in his study of Western Nigeria in 1966 and in 1969 he reported a higher urban than rural fertility for that region. This result was supported by Ekanem on the basis of data from his 1972 survey of parts of Eastern Nigeria. Given the relatively wider range of available data presently available for Southern Nigeria, this paper examines the Olusanya — Ekanem data together with recent statistics collected from Western, Mid-Western, and Eastern parts of Nigeria by other workers and points out certain inconsistencies and contradictions in the data and conclusions of Olusanya and Ekanem. It suggests that the bulk of available evidence to date suggests either that there is a trend towards the convergence of rural-urban fertility or a definite pattern of higher fertility in the countryside than in the towns. The conclusion also discusses some technical problems of comparing urban and rural fertility.     

Rural-Urban fertility differentials in Southern Nigeria: An assessment of some available evidence

Summary The dearth of information on fertility in Nigeria has hitherto impeded efforts to arrive at a consistent pattern of rural-urban fertility differentials in Nigeria. Attempts were made from the mid-sixties onwards to analyse the pattern of rural-urban fertility differentials in some parts of Southern Nigeria from a few independent sources. One such attempt was made by Olusanya; in his study of Western Nigeria in 1966 and in 1969 he reported a higher urban than rural fertility for that region. This result was supported by Ekanem on the basis of data from his 1972 survey of parts of Eastern Nigeria. Given the relatively wider range of available data presently available for Southern Nigeria, this paper examines the Olusanya - Ekanem data together with recent statistics collected from Western, Mid-Western, and Eastern parts of Nigeria by other workers and points out certain inconsistencies and contradictions in the data and conclusions of Olusanya and Ekanem. It suggests that the bulk of available evidence to date suggests either that there is a trend towards the convergence of rural-urban fertility or a definite pattern of higher fertility in the countryside than in the towns. The conclusion also discusses some technical problems of comparing urban and rural fertility.     

Fertility and desired fertility: Longitudinal evidence from Thailand

Summary The validity and usefulness of 'desired additional children' and 'ideal family size' as predictors of fertility are analysed in this paper on the basis of longitudinal survey data from Thailand. First, the extent of measurement error in these variables is considered, and it is concluded that the error variance and the true variance are of similar orders of magnitude. Secondly, the changes in attitudes subsequent to births and deaths of children are investigated. It is found that the number of additional children desired is decreased by births and increased by deaths, but less than would be expected if 'desired additional children' represented an unchanging target family size. 'Ideal family size' is almost unaffected by births and deaths. Thirdly, the contribution of attitudinal variables to behavioural models is examined. It is found that desired fertility is explained no better than fertility in a standard economic model. A birth function separating desired children from identifiable physiological factors as explanatory variables indicated that the former was just significant. A model of contraceptive acceptance also found desired fertility to be a significant determinant. Thus, desired fertility can be successfully integrated into behavioural models. But on the whole, its explanatory power was weak, and it was concluded that the independent use of this variable does not significantly improve on models which relate fertility to socio-economic variables directly.     

Rural-urban fertility differentials in Western Nigeria

Abstract The paper attempts to glean some information on differential fertility from data obtained in a survey of selected urban and rural communities in Western Nigeria. The results show that the attitudes of rural women are far more favourable to high fertility than those of urban women, though for both groups the modal number of children preferred is five or six. The analysis also yields a total fertility of nearly six and an average family size of about five for both groups. No conclusive evidence of rural-urban fertility differentials has, however, been found. All that can be said on the basis of the available data is that the level of fertility in Western Nigeria is currently very high and that urban fertility is probably as high as rural fertility, though the probability of much larger errors in the rural than in the urban data may imply somewhat higher rural fertility.     

Fertility decline in Kinshasa

This paper examines key socio-economic changes over the past 40 years in the lives of women in Kinshasa, Zaire, and how those changes relate to observed fertility behaviour. Data from surveys carried out in 1955, 1975, and 1990 are used to highlight the remarkable shift that has taken place in the educational attainment of women: in the 1950s the vast majority of adult women had no formal education, while by 1990 the median woman had been to secondary school. This dramatic shift was accompanied by several related changes, including delays in age at marriage and increased participation in the labour market. Total fertility, which was estimated at 7.5 in the 1950s and had not changed much by 1975, appears to have fallen more recently, by about 1.5 children or more. This decline in fertility appears to be closely linked to the improvements in secondary schooling for women in Kinshasa.     

Non-familial activity and socio-economic differentials in fertility

The relationship between socio-economicstatus and fertility among married women is examined, using data from the 1/1,000 sample from the 1960 United States Census of Population and the 1960 Growth of American Families Study. Both sets of data indicate that the negative relationship between socio-economic status and fertility is still prevalent but may reflect different patterns of child-spacing rather than completed fertility. Labor force participation among these women is found to be negatively related to the number of children ever born. To determine the degree of involvement in this type of non-familial role, the work index or proportion of one’s married life engaged in the labor force is developed. The work index is found to be a particularly sensitive measure of involvement in the worker role vis-a-vis their fertility. The working hypothesis of this study, that such non-familial activity has a different effect according to one’s socio-economic status, is borne out. Participation in the labor force results in a relatively larger reduction in the fertility of upper status women than for those of lower status. However, this relationship apparently holds true only for those women from rural backgrounds but not for those from large urban areas.     

Religious fertility differentials in Thailand, 1960

Abstract Although the evidence supporting high fertility in Thailand is clear-cut, little is known about fertility differentials within the population. As part of a larger investigation, a special 1 % tabulation of the 1960 Thai census data on number of children ever-born to married women has been analysed to determine the extent of differentials by religion and urban-rural status. The findings point to considerable differentials among Buddhists, Moslems, and Confucianists. Standardizing for age, the number of children ever-born to 12/loslems averaged well below the number born to Buddhists. Confucian fertility was intermediate. Within specific age groups, the number of children ever-born to Moslem women was considerably below the Buddhist average and the differentials were sharper in the higher age groups. By contrast, Confucian fertility was highest of all in the age groups under 35, but lower than the Buddhist averages among older women. Significant urban-rural differentials also exist. For both the Buddhist and the Confucian women, fertility is markedly lower in urban than in rural categories. When controlling for both age and urban-rural status, Buddhist and Confucian differences tend to be minimal. By contrast, Moslem fertility was highest in the most urban category - Bangkok - but was considerably lower and substantially below the fertility levels of Buddhists and Confucianists in all other urban-rural categories. The census data in themselves do not permit adequate analysis of the reasons for the differentials. Later age at marriage in urban places may be a significant factor in accounting for the overall differentials in urban-rural fertility ; but this relation is much less clear for specific religious groups, particularly since Moslems marry at a considerably earlier age. More frequent divorce and remarriage may lower Moslem rates. Poorer health may also be a factor.     

Family structure and socio-economic differentials in fertility

Abstract The long standing research on the relation of socio-economic status and fertility has recently given way to a focus on those factors which account for class differentials. Although class differences in fertility seem to be diminishing, the basic relationship remains inverse.(2) In an attempt to explain class differentials in fertility, researchers have begun to look at such variables as age at marriage(3), value orientations(4), and non-fiunilial activity.(5) Bumpass demonstrated that age at marriage is an interaction variable which greatly attenuates the relationship between social class and fertility. He found that the relationship was inverse among women marrying before age 19, but direct among women who were 23 years or older at first marriage. Clifford examined value orientations as an intervening variable in the socio-economic status-fertility relationship. Modern and traditional value orientations did aid in interpreting the relationship, but other factors were also operative. Kupinsky found that the non-familial activity of women decidedly influenced socio-economic differentials infertility. Thelabour force participation of women had a greater effect on reducing fertility among upper-status women than among those of lower status. This relationship was also influenced by the rural-urban background of the women.     

Fertility exposure analysis: A new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials

Summary Several recent papers have dealt with the problem of assessing the impact of the proximate determinants on fertility. All these approaches rely on combining a series of separately estimated aggregate level indicators. This paper proposes an approach which uses individual-level data and thus permits regression analyses as well as analyses for sub-groups. In the course of development it became clear that there are several deficiencies and inconsistencies in the measurement and formation of indices proposed elsewhere, which are overcome. We illustrate our approach with data from the Dominican Republic. The approach used involves attributing exposure to one or more of several states, including pregnancy, lactational and non-lactational components of post-partum amenorrhoea, absence of sexual relations and contraception. Key elements are efficacies of contraception and components of post-partum infecundity and the treatment of overlaps through an explicit hierarchy. We treat both unconditional (or additive) and conditional analyses. Intriguing findings on the age-specific pattern of fertility control emerge. Major advantages of regression analysis, such as simultaneous treatment of several variables and estimation of sampling variation are stressed.     

Recent fertility decline in Ceylon

Abstract The crude birth rate for Ceylon has been falling steadily between 1960 and 1970, except for a slight interruption in 1968. The fall between 1953 and 1963 has been documented elsewhere and this paper will therefore deal with the period 1963-69.     

The role of contraceptive supply and demand in Mexican fertility decline: evidence from a microdemographic study

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services.     

Migration as a source of growth: The perspective of a developing country

This paper analyses the dynamics of migratory flows and growth in a developing economy. We show that when workers freely choose their location, some natives can rationally decide to return to their home country after they have accumulated a certain amount of knowledge abroad, while some prefer to stay permanently in the same economy (either at home or abroad). We point out that worker mobility can have an expansionary effect on the developing economy. Moreover, we show that in the long-run, as the sending economy develops, fewer natives are likely to emigrate and more migrants are likely to return. Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 25 April 2001