From the Replacement Rate to the Synthetic Indicator: A Global and Gender Measure of Pension Adequacy in the European Union

To measure the adequacy of pension systems in the world, one of the most commonly used indicators is the Replacement Rate. Our work is based on the statement that this indicator is imperfect itself to measure adequacy because it does not collect the multiple dimensions that it involves while being a static measurement. Consequently and based on the data provided by “The 2015 Pension Adequacy Report: current and future income adequacy in old age in the European Union” of the European Commission, in this paper we select a set of variables that are considered representative to measure the adequacy of pension systems from a dynamic and multidimensional perspective, and based on them, a synthetic adequacy indicator is developed. This indicator aims to compare European pension systems from the adequacy objective and to carry out continuous monitoring of the effects that the reform processes may have on the adequacy of pensions. The analysis is completed with the calculation of a gender indicator on pension adequacy for the European Union (EU-28) which identifies the still existing gap between men and women.     

The Multidimensional Efficiency of Pension System: Definition and Measurement in Cross-Country Studies

The existing literature on the efficiency of pension system, usually addresses the problem between the choice of different theoretical models, or concerns one or few empirical pension systems. In this paper quite different approach to the measurement of pension system efficiency is proposed. It is dedicated mainly to the cross-country studies of empirical pension systems, however it may be also employed to the analysis of a given pension system on the basis of time series. I identify four dimensions of pension system efficiency, referring to: GDP-distribution, adequacy of pension, influence on the labour market and administrative costs. Consequently, I propose four sets of static and one set of dynamic efficiency indicators. In the empirical part of the paper, I use Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and cluster analysis to verify the proposed method on statistical data covering 28 European countries in years 2007–2011. I prove that the method works and enables some comparisons as well as clustering of analyzed pension systems. The study delivers also some interesting empirical findings. The main goal of pension systems seems to become poverty alleviation, since the efficiency of ensuring protection against poverty, as well as the efficiency of reducing poverty, is very resistant to the efficiency of GDP-distribution. The opposite situation characterizes the efficiency of consumption smoothing—this is generally sensitive to the efficiency of GDP-distribution, and its dynamics are sensitive to the dynamics of GDP-distribution efficiency. The results of the study indicate the Norwegian and the Icelandic pension systems to be the most efficient in the analyzed group.     

养老保险制度安全的测度方法及实证评价

将养老保险制度针对人口老龄化冲击可动用的外部资源和制度调节能力作为衡量其安全性关键指标,从制度自平衡、外部环境支持度和制度可调节度三个维度构建测度养老保险制度安全的方法体系.并选取东、中、东北地区的上海市、安徽省和辽宁省为代表省份,利用构建的测度方法体系实证评估城镇职工基本养老保险制度的安全状况.实证分析发现:辽宁和上海在目前已无法实现制度的财务自平衡,并将在2020年和2025年相继进入不可持续安全等级;安徽省则在8年后无法维持制度的收支自平衡,将于2031年进入危险等级.     

Synergies Among Monetary,Multidimensional and Subjective Poverty: Evidence from Nepal

In this paper we construct a Nepal specific multidimensional poverty index using the Nepal Longitudinal Sample Survey (NLSS) for the period 1995–2010. The indicators for Nepal Multidimensional Poverty Index (NMP) have been chosen using the goals set by the Government of Nepal and the perceptions of adequacy as reported by households. In doing so this study combines multidimensional and subjective methods of measuring wellbeing. The subjective data is used to guide the choice of dimensions for the multidimensional analysis. Our findings show that Nepal has had a dramatic fall in multidimensional poverty along with the observed fall in consumption poverty in this period. Comparing the extent to which consumption poverty accurately identifies the multidimensionally poor, we find the error has reduced over time but remains large in proportion to the poverty rate implying the need for a multidimensional measure. For the different ethnic groups and regions the patterns of reduction in poverty are not homogenous and are different from those of consumption poverty with the NMP outperforming the consumption poverty in tracking targeted policy actions.     

Multidimensionl Poverty and The Role of Social Capital in Poverty Alleviation Among Ethnic Groups in Rural Vietnam: A Multilevel Analysis

This paper empirically examines the disparities over time across six dimensions of poverty (monetary, education, health, housing, basic services, and durable assets) between ethnic minority and majority households in rural Vietnam. Using the five-wave panel data of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) 2008–2016, we observe improvements in most non-monetary dimensions of poverty for both ethnic groups, while the monetary dimension shows the highest degrees of deprivation and the lowest rate of decrease during the studied period. Health is the only dimension in which ethnic minority households are not only better off than those of majority households during the studied period, but also report improvement. We further explore the role of social capital in ethnic minorities and non-minorities at household and community levels in multiple dimensions of poverty by employing multilevel models. Our study reports the significant effects social capital have at the community level on reducing poverty in the monetary, education, housing, and basic services dimensions for ethnic minorities, while social capital at the household level shows significant effects on monetary, basic services, and durable assets. These findings indicate that policy makers ought to consider the role of social capital when designing poverty alleviation strategies for the country.

     

Disparities in the Level of Poverty in China: Evidence from China Family Panel Studies 2010

This paper uses the Dual Cut-offs Approach to measure multidimensional poverty in China at the national, rural-urban, regional and provincial levels using the China Family Panel Studies data from 2010. Five dimensions and thirteen indicators are considered for the enumeration of poverty. It is observed that irrespective of cut-offs and weights, rural poverty in China is three to nine times of urban poverty. Social insurance, toilet and cooking fuel are the major indicators contributing to both rural and urban poverty. More urban households in the Western region are deprived, but urban poor households are deprived in more indicators in the Central region, and some Eastern provinces are poorer than some of the Central provinces. Furthermore, the paper identifies the provinces that contribute most to national poverty levels and finds the sources of poverty in those provinces.     

Poverty,Inequality and Deprivation in South Africa: An Analysis of the 1993 SALDRU Survey

This paper analyses poverty and inequality in South Africa based on data from a comprehensive multi-purpose household survey undertaken in 1993 to provide baseline statistics on poverty and its determinants to the new government. The paper shows that South Africa has among the highest levels of income inequality in the world and compares poorly in most social indicators to countries with similar income levels. Much of the poverty in the country is a direct result of apartheid policies that denied equal access to education, employment, services, and resources to the black population of the country. As a result, poverty has a very strong racial dimension with poverty concentrated among the African population. In addition, poverty is much higher in rural areas, and particularly high in the former homelands. Poverty among female-headed households and among children is also higher than average. Moreover, poverty is closely related to poor education and lack of employment. The poor suffer from lack of access to education, quality health care, basic infrastructure, transport, are heavily indebted, have little access to productive resources, and are heavily dependent on remittances and social transfers, particularly social pensions and disability grants. The paper uses an income-based definition of poverty for most of the analysis. In addition, it develops a broad-based index of deprivation including income, employment, wealth, access to services, health, education, and perceptions of satisfaction as its components. While on average the two indicators correspond fairly closely, the income poverty measure misses a considerable number of people who are severely deprived in many of the non-income measures of well-being. This group of severely deprived not identified by the income poverty measure consists predominantly of Africans living in rural areas, concentrated particularly in the province of KwaZulu/Natal.     

Tracking Poverty Reduction in Bhutan: Income Deprivation Alongside Deprivation in Other Sources of Happiness

This paper analyses poverty reduction in Bhutan between two points in time—2003 and 2007—from a multidimensional perspective. The measures estimated include consumption expenditure as well as other indicators which are directly (when possible) or indirectly associated to valuable functionings, namely, health, education, access to electricity, safe water, improved sanitation, enough room per person in dwelling, access to roads and land ownership. Interestingly, most of these indicators have been identified as sources of happiness in the 2007 Gross National Happiness Survey. Twelve different measures are estimated with a variety of values for the different parameters involved for robustness analysis. Also, estimates are bootstrapped creating 95 % confidence intervals. We find that over the study period there was an unambiguous reduction in multidimensional poverty regardless of the indicators’ weights, deprivation cutoffs and identification criterion of the poor. This reduction was mainly led by a reduction in the proportion of the poor which was accompanied by a reduction in the intensity of poverty among those who were less intensively poor, although not among those who were more intensively poor. Rather than accomplishing this poverty reduction by improving achievements in one or two indicators, there were significant reductions in several deprivations, especially in access to roads, electricity, water, sanitation, and education. We also find that when income alone is used to target the poor, inclusion errors are marginal but exclusion errors are sizeable. Despite Bhutan’s significant progress, challenges remain as poverty is still high in rural areas. A multidimensional measure in the lines proposed in this paper can prove useful for monitoring poverty reduction, prioritizing groups and evaluating upon investment.     

Uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty in China

Qualifying the official minimum of “Two no worries and three guarantees” (certainty of food and clothing, guarantees of compulsory education, basic medical care, and housing) is essential to evaluate the targeted poverty alleviation program since 2013 in China. Using the poverty monitoring dataset and the multidimensional poverty indicator system, the uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty and its driving factors in poverty-stricken areas in China during 2014–2018 are explored in this paper. The incidence rate of multidimensional poverty was reduced by 61.72%, and the poverty reduction rate within the six dimensions ranged from 52.29 to 76.36%. Multidimensional poverty and its six dimensions displayed narrowing regional disparity. Impoverished and moderately poor areas shrank, whereas low-poverty areas expanded. All 22 provinces have become low-poverty areas in 2018. The contribution of each dimension to multidimensional poverty varies for different types at different stages. Income and expenditure contribute the most to poverty status, followed by transportation, housing conditions, education, communication, and medical care and health. The contribution of each indicator among different dimensions varied with different trends from 2014 to2018. This paper helps incorporate the official minimums of “Two no worries and three guarantees” into a more operational evaluation system to promote sustainable policies for governments at all levels by 2020 and beyond, as well as provide valuable references for poverty alleviation in other developing countries worldwide.

     

A Different Perspective on Poverty in Lao PDR: Multidimensional Poverty in Lao PDR for the Years 2002/2003 and 2007/2008

This paper presents an indicator for measuring multidimensional poverty in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic applying the Alkire–Foster methodology to the Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2002/2003 and 2007/2008. We calculated a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) that includes three dimensions: education, health, and standard of living. Making use of the MPI’s decomposability, we analyse how much each of the different dimensions and its respective indicators contribute to the overall MPI. We find a marked reduction in the multidimensional poverty headcount ratio over the study period, regardless of how the indicators are weighted or how the deprivation and poverty cut-offs are set. This reduction is based on improvements regarding all indicators except cooking fuel and nutrition. We observe no significant reduction in the intensity of poverty, however; there are wide disparities between the country’s regions and between urban and rural areas. The proportion of poor people in rural areas is more than twice as high as that in urban areas. By complementing the traditional income-based poverty measure, we hope to provide useful information that can support knowledge-based decision-making for poverty alleviation.     

The Relationship Between EU Indicators of Persistent and Current Poverty

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the European Union’s (EU's) portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.     

Fuzzy Measures of Longitudinal Poverty in a Comparative Perspective

In this paper we present a methodology for the study of longitudinal aspects of monetary and multi-dimensional poverty, and apply this in a multi-country comparative context. The conventional poor/non-poor dichotomy is replaced by defining poverty as a matter of degree, determined by the place of the individual in the income distribution. The same methodology facilitates the inclusion of other dimensions of deprivation into the analysis: by appropriately weighting indicators of deprivation to reflect their dispersion and correlation, we can construct measures of non-monetary deprivation in its various dimensions. An important contribution of the paper is to identify rules for the intersection and union of fuzzy sets appropriate for the study of poverty and deprivation. These rules allow us to meaningfully study the persistence of poverty and deprivation over time. We establish the consistency of the approach when applied to a time sequence of any length. We can thus study longitudinally over time a whole range of indicators of poverty and deprivation, from cross-sectional monetary poverty rates to multi-dimensional indicators of deprivation: in particular, we propose the new “Fuzzy At-persistent-risk-of-poverty rate”, and compare it with the corresponding Laeken indicator adopted by Eurostat.     

Rethinking Dimensions: The South African Multidimensional Poverty Index

The growth of literature on multidimensional poverty measures generates an uncertainty about which dimensions best capture the extent of poverty. This paper applies multiple correspondence analysis in the context of multidimensional poverty in South Africa to identify statistically valid additional dimensions using National Income Dynamics Study data of 2012. The results confirm the argument that economic status (lack of employment) and financial commitment (over-indebtedness) can be regarded as important dimensions, as their occurrence constrains households from participating in the activities essential in modern society. It is therefore proposed that, in addition to health, education, and living standard dimensions, both economic status and financial commitments should be included in the framework for the South African multidimensional poverty analysis. A central contribution of this work is a proposal of a hybrid multidimensional measure which recommends a combination of both non-monetary and monetary indicators, in particular over-indebtedness.     

Educational Mismatch of Graduates: a Multidimensional and Fuzzy Indicator

In this paper we attempt to measure the educational mismatch, seen as a problem of overeducation, using a multidimensional and fuzzy methodology. Educational mismatch can be difficult to measure because many factors can converge to its definition and the traditional unidimensional indicators presented in literature can offer a restricted view of the problem. We discovered two dimensions that properly define overeducation. The first includes information regarding job satisfaction, the use of expertise and the coherence between study and work, but also the measure on which the traditional indicator is based and the second concern earning aspects. We then calculate a degree of membership to the set of overeducated workers using the defined dimensions. We believe that in this manner we can partially overcome the rigidity of the traditional measures. Our findings suggested that generally women have a degree of mismatch higher than men and the graduates in Pharmacy, Medicine and Engineering are the least overeducated in terms of the first dimension, even if in terms of the earnings dimension they have similar mismatches to the other fields of education. Self-employment and collaboration contracts reduce overeducation when the first dimension is considered; on the other hand, when the second dimension is taken into account graduates with collaboration contracts are the most mismatched out of those having a job. Additionally, university reform introduced in the academic year 2001–2002 in the Italian higher education system is shown as not contributing to a reduction of the overeducation phenomenon.     

养老金新政:新旧养老保险政策的替代率测算

本论文通过模型在一定的精算假设下作了比较分析,发现在同样的精算假设下测算,改革之前的养老金替代率要明显高于原来预计的目标替代率,其主要原因在于在个人账户空账的条件下,个人账户假设的利息率是比较低的,而做实个人账户之后,资本市场可以获得合理的利息回报,个人账户积累的效率提高,加上基础养老金比例增加,是改革后养老金目标替代率没有下降的关键。     

Assessing How Participators Combine Acts in Their “Political Tool Kits”: A Person-Centered Measurement Approach for Analyzing Citizen Participation

The aim of this paper is to highlight some key issues and challenges in the analysis of poverty at the local level using survey data. In the last years there was a worldwide increase in the demand for poverty and living conditions estimates at the local level, since these quantities can help in planning local policies aimed at decreasing poverty and social exclusion. In many countries various sample surveys on income and living conditions are currently conducted, but their sample size is not enough to obtain reliable estimates at local level. When this happens, small area estimation (SAE) methods can be used. In this paper, a SAE model is used to compute the mean household equivalised income and the head count ratio for the 57 Labor Local Systems of the Tuscany region in Italy for the year 2011. The caveats of the analysis of poverty at the local level using small area methods are many, and some are still not so well explored in the literature, starting from the definition of the target indicators to the relevant dimensions of their measurement. We suggest in this paper that together with the universally recognized multidimensional, longitudinal and local dimensions of poverty, a new dimension must be considered: the price dimension, which should take into account local purchasing power parities to correctly compare the poverty indicators based on income measures.     

Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between a Life Quality Index,HDI and Poverty in the Province of Buenos Aires and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires,Argentina

The study of Quality of Life, Poverty and Human Development shares several elements. Nonetheless, while poverty is a measure of “lack” based on a set of basic need variables (unsatisfied basic needs—UBN), human development index (HDI) is derived from the notion of human capabilities. Quality of Life, however, is a measure of achievement. Our goal is to analyze the degree of spatial correspondence between a life quality index (LQI) and the other indices by using bivariate spatial autocorrelation with its global and local values. The comparison of these three indicators at a municipal level in the province of Buenos Aires and in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (the Federal Capital of Argentina) reveals a medium spatial correspondence which leaves room for discussion about the scope and limitations of the indicators. HDI and UBN have a similar spatial configuration while the LQI yields a more fragmented distribution associated to the complexity of its variables, dimension and weights.     

中国新企业年金替代率测算及其敏感性分析

企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。企业年金替代率是企业养老保险的一个重要指标。本文构建了一个测算企业年金替代率的现金流平衡模型。基于现金流平衡模型,我们对影响企业年金替代率的诸因素进行了敏感性分析。不同于大多数的以往研究方法,我们应用三状态Markov转换模型分析了年金基金投资收益率的长期走势。研究表明,逐步延长退休年龄或提供投资收益可以提高企业年金替代率。因此,应通过实施弹性退休制,改善企业年金资产的投资环境,实施更多的税收优惠政策,以及其他配套措施,以促进我国企业年金的可持续发展。     

Childhood and Capability Deprivation in Germany: A Quantitative Analysis Using German Socio-Economic Panel Data

Child poverty has been widely discussed in Germany since the publication of the third official Poverty and Wealth Report of the German government in 2008 which—inter alia—focused on the situation of children and families. However, child poverty is not only caused by low household incomes and impacts of child poverty are not only restricted to financial consequences. The capability approach takes into account this multidimensionality of well-being and poverty of children. It conceptualizes human well-being as not only depending on financial means but also gives the same importance to the personal and social conversion factors which determine how far financial means can be converted into personal well-being. Before 2008 the capability approach had only been applied to the well-being of adults in Germany, but not specifically to the well-being of children. However, there are several reasons why a capability analysis for children will differ from a capability analysis for adults. Adults’ capability sets comprise dimensions that are less relevant for small children while other valuable capabilities have to be added. Furthermore the capability set depends to a large extent on the age of the child. The paper focuses on a multidimensional poverty analysis in the capability perspective of 5–6 years old children. In the domains of “Education/Leisure”, “Health”, “Social Participation” and “Income” child poverty is measured by predefined indicators. The relationship to the social and personal conversion factors of the caretakers is then evaluated. Additionally, a multidimensional poverty measure is analyzed.     

提高退休年龄与降低替代率：城镇职工基本养老金的财政支出研究

目前，中国法定退体年龄与最优退休年龄存在不同步的现象，所建最优退休年龄经济模型的结果表明人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。按照这个规律，中国目前应提高退休年龄。但通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析，笔者认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率，而提高退休年龄应运步推行。