平均预期寿命、健康工作寿命与延迟退休年龄

我国劳动者能健康工作多久?退休年龄究竟延迟到哪一岁最为合理?这关系着广大劳动者切身利益因而是非常重大的政策性问题。本研究采用生命表技术编制了我国2005和2010年分性别人口平均预期寿命、健康预期寿命、工作寿命及健康工作寿命表,然后从劳动力健康工作的视角提出我国延迟退休的合理目标年龄。研究发现,2005和2010年,我国男女健康工作寿命都分别接近62岁和58岁。该发现的重要政策启示在于:我国当前可适当延迟退休年龄,女性比男性延迟退休的空间大,男女65岁同龄退休的时机还未成熟,建议我国延迟退休的目标年龄应以男性62岁,女性58岁为上限;从生命周期角度对我国退休年龄进行国际比较,若按男性62岁,女性58岁为退休年龄上限执行,那么我国劳动力的退休生涯与工作寿命之比将接近发达国家的平均水平;从政策的操作层面来看,我国延迟退休应女先男后或女快男慢,并采取弹性退休制度逐步推迟退休年龄。     

缓解老龄化压力,推迟退休有效吗?

虽然经合组织(OECD)国家在长期低生育水平下,已经出现严重老龄化和劳动力短缺等问题,但多数国家的实际退休年龄都低于法定退休年龄,老龄人口劳动参与率普遍较低,单纯依靠推迟退休年龄并不必然缓解老龄化和养老金支出危机。通过理论模型对导致老年人选择提前退休的经济社会因素的分析,认为要有效发挥法定退休年龄的作用,提高老龄劳动参与率,还需更多改革,如规定较低的提前退休年金,鼓励人力资本投资,设计弹性退休年龄等。中国目前应设法提高老龄劳动参与率,而非推迟退休年龄。     

Measuring Stability and Change: Methodological Issues in Quality of Life studies

The aim of the paper is to show how the variety of approaches to study social change may result in a challenging complexity for the social scientist, starting from the difficulty of defining the concept of “change” itself and managing it through observed data. This is particularly true in presence of complex phenomena, such as those defining and composing the quality of life. What should be pointed out is that quality of life studies not only are focused on the present time but have also long term perspectives. This represents the link between studies on quality of life and forecasting. When applied to the field of quality of life, the typical logical approach to forecasts, based upon inferential statistics, could reveal its limits. Those limits are related to different aspects: e.g., the forms of relationships between different aspects of the phenomenon, which can be linear and non-linear; the dimensionality of phenomenon, which can turn out to be very complex; the causality, which could be direct or indirect; the entity of change, which implies the idea that also small change can have great impact; the perspective of observation, which can be internal or external and local or global. Consequently, the study of change related to quality of life needs, in addition to the traditional statistical tools as well as the tradition of social indicators, a different approach. Although the Futures Studies are not a proper science, nevertheless their approach to social research may ensure the requested accuracy of a scientific forecasting process.     

退休年龄对劳动参与率的影响

自1951年以来。中国的退休政策并未随着平均寿命、经济发展等情况的变化做出大的改变。每年有成千上万的老年劳动者,在其仍有劳动意愿和劳动能力的情况下,因为政策的规定离开工作岗位。过低的退休年龄使得我国的劳动参与率被潜在的低估,如果调整现行退休政策,将修正劳动参与率、减少“人口负债”期问题、缓解未来养老金收支失衡压力和挤压劳动力市场。     

Measuring Subjective Issues of Well-Being and Quality of Life in the European Statistical System

Over the last decades, the European Statistical System has developed many European statistics and indicators to measure social progress and sustainable development. Initially only in a few cases the measuring instruments contained questions on subjective issues. With the adoption of its Communication on “gross domestic product and beyond” the Commission has given an impetus to the development of subjective social indicators. This has led to the establishment of a first set of indicators on quality of life and well-being and to a new instrument (the 2013 EU-SILC ad-hoc module for measuring subjective well-being). This new step in European statistics creates an important potential for researchers to engage in in-depth analysis and for national and European Union policy makers to use the resulting indicators—and in casu subjective well-being indicators—for developing and monitoring policy strategies and programmes.     

Deriving Multidimensional Poverty Indicators: Methodological Issues and an Empirical Analysis for Italy

Theoretical and empirical studies have recently adopted a multidimensional concept of poverty. There is considerable debate about the most appropriate degree of multidimensionality to retain in the analysis. In this work we add to the received literature in two ways. First, we derive indicators of multiple deprivation by applying a particular multivariate statistical technique, the non-linear principal component analysis (NLPCA), which overcomes traditional limits of many of the mostly used methodologies for poverty measurement. Second, on the basis of the aforementioned indicators, we provide an accurate identification of the poor in Italy by analyzing deprivation both as a distinct phenomenon in different life domains and as a single multidimensional concept. The main determinants of poverty in Italy are then investigated by estimating logit regressions and an ordered probit model. Our empirical analysis is based on data from the Italian component of European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC-2004).     

Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite declines of one to two years following the recession, in 2008–2011, American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. Although educational differences in working life expectancy have been stable since the mid-1990s, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that although Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, considerable subpopulation heterogeneity exists. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends.     

上海地区延长退休年龄意愿研究——基于Logistic回归分析

与以往仅从宏观社会养老制度可持续性的角度出发,来论证延长退休年龄的必要性不同,本文基于在职职工的个人意愿,通过问卷调查与分析,发现劳动者工作单位的属性是决定其延长退休年龄意愿最为重要的影响因素,机关事业单位的劳动者更容易倾向延长退休年龄。对此猜测分析了形成该现象的三种原因,并提出了建立体现公平性和效率性的多层次社会养老保障制度的改革意见。     

Maternal Age and Offspring Adult Health: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study

Advanced maternal age is associated with negative offspring health outcomes. This interpretation often relies on physiological processes related to aging, such as decreasing oocyte quality. We use a large, population-based sample of American adults to analyze how selection and lifespan overlap between generations influence the maternal age?Coffspring adult health association. We find that offspring born to mothers younger than age 25 or older than 35 have worse outcomes with respect to mortality, self-rated health, height, obesity, and the number of diagnosed conditions than those born to mothers aged 25?C34. Controls for maternal education and age at which the child lost the mother eliminate the effect for advanced maternal age up to age 45. The association between young maternal age and negative offspring outcomes is robust to these controls. Our findings suggest that the advanced maternal age?Coffspring adult health association reflects selection and factors related to lifespan overlap. These may include shared frailty or parental investment but are not directly related to the physiological health of the mother during conception, fetal development, or birth. The results for young maternal age add to the evidence suggesting that children born to young mothers might be better off if the parents waited a few years.     

The Retirement Life Course in America at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century

As the baby boom cohorts expand the number of U.S. retirees, population estimates of the employment, withdrawal and reentry behaviors of older Americans’ remain scarce. How long do people work? How frequently is retirement reversed? How many years are people retired? What is the modal age of retirement? And, how do the patterns for women compare to those for men? Using the 1992–2004 Health and Retirement Study, we estimate multistate working life tables to update information on the age-graded regularities of the retirement life course of men and women in the United States. We find that at age 50 men can expect to spend half of their remaining lives working for pay, while women can expect to spend just one-third. Half of all men and women have left the labor force by ages 63 and 61, respectively. Although the majority of retirement exits are final, variation in the nature and duration of the retirement process is substantial, as about a third of men’s and women’s exits are reversed. By quantifying these patterns for men and women, we provide a sound empirical basis for evaluating policy designed to address the financial pressures population aging places on public and private pension systems.     

Working Beyond 65: Predictors of Late Retirement for Women and Men MBAs

Comparisons of those who planned to continue working after the age of 65 with those who did not were made for 145 women and 414 men working in managerial fields. All received MBA degrees between the years of 1973 and 1982. About 20% definitely wanted to work after age 65. More positive views of work were predictive of wanting to continue working as was having nontraditional gender-role attitudes. Men who planned to continue working were particularly likely to have a spouse wanting to work past the age of 65. Several other factors appeared to operate differently for women and men.     

人口迁移对城镇职工退休年龄调整的影响

长期以来我国城镇职工基本养老保险实行地方社会统筹,养老保险基金收支平衡会受到当地人口结构变化的冲击.这种人口迁移的加速影响到当地养老保险基金的收支平衡,为了保持基金收支平衡,有必要对退休年龄政策进行调整.而对于人口迁入地和迁出地来说,退休年龄的调整方向会截然相反,但调整力度基本相同.本文仅仅考察人口迁移对迁入地退休年龄调整的影响效应.研究发现,当人口以10%的速度迁移时,迁入地的最佳退休年龄为65岁;当人口以20%的速度迁移时,迁入地的最佳退休年龄为63岁.这充分反映了人口迁移对退休年龄政策调整具有重大的影响效应.     

基于灰色关联分析的我国退休年龄影响因素研究

我国现行退休年龄政策已不能适应社会的发展,亟待进行合理规划.本文用2000~2013年的统计数据,采用灰色关联分析方法,对影响退休年龄的9大因素进行灰色关联分析,包括经济变量因素分析与非经济变量因素分析.研究结果发现,居民消费价格指数的影响最为重要,人均受教育年限、我国城市人口就业率、在岗职工人均工资及人口自然增长率排在其后.国家在推行延迟退休政策时应当关注这些问题,并制定和执行配套措施,以确保延迟退休政策顺利推行.     

广东妇女文化素质与生育水平分析

对于不同文化程度的育龄妇女,其生育观念,优生节育知识及在社会和家庭中的角色地位等都存在较大差异,进而影响其生育水平。本文从妇女的婚育年龄,总和生育率,活产子女,生育孩次构成等方面,来分析广东妇女文化素质与生育水平的关系。     

论男女平等享有就业权与实施同年龄退休政策

我国男干部 60岁退 (离 )休 ,女干部 5 5岁退 (离 )休 ,女工人 5 0岁退 (离 )休的政策 ,最早是 1 95 0年代和 1 970年代规定的 ①。此规定的初衷原是有利于人口的再生产 ,并保护承担人口再生产重担的母亲的身体健康。此项政策在制定和实行的初期并未遭到很大的质疑 ,主要有以下原因 :( 1 )当时我国女性的预期寿命只有 36 7岁 ,低于男性 ;② ( 2 )在 2 0世纪 5 0～ 70年代初期女性生育不受和少受控制 ,呈多子女态势 ;( 3)当时的家庭多属大家庭结构 ,许多妇女在 5 0岁左右就需要承担帮助照看第三代的家庭责任 ;( 4 )新中国职业女性还没有广泛…     

人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。     

The Role of Leisure in Determining Quality of Life: Issues of Content and Measurement

Traditional approaches to themeasurement of leisure's relationship toquality of life have emphasised place-centredindicators (e.g., the frequency of leisurefacility usage) and tended to ignoreperson-centred criteria (e.g., satisfactionwith leisure experiences). Moreover, theunderlying assumption in subsequent policyoutcomes has been that increasing the number offacilities and services will automaticallyenhance people's QOL. This paper focuses onboth the content and measurement of leisure andits relationship to quality of life. Itreports the results of a study that examinedthe relative importance of selected place andperson-centred leisure attributes in predictingquality of life. The study tested a set ofobjective and subjective indicators that peopleare most concerned with in their leisure lives. Overall, it was found that the person-centredleisure attribute, leisure satisfaction, wasthe best predictor of quality of life. Place-centred attributes failed to influencequality of life. Further analysis revealedthat people who engage in social activitiesmore frequently and who are more satisfied withthe psychological benefits they derive fromleisure, experience higher levels of perceivedquality of life. The results suggest thatthere is a need to reconcile objectiveknowledge with subjective perceptions ofleisure in order to achieve greaterunderstanding and comprehensive measurement ofthis complex domain and its relationship toquality of life.     

Patterns of Time Use Across the Life Span in Korea: A Latent Class Analysis and Age and Gender Differences

The purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of time use and the patterns of time use across the life span using a socioemotional selectivity theory. The data used for this study were from the “Korean Time Use Survey,” which is collected every 5 years by Statistics Korea (KOSTAT). The data collected in 1999, 2004, and 2009 were used to analyze the patterns of time use using latent class analyses and to observe the differences of time use by age and gender. The results were summarized as follows: Based on the analyses of nine behavior classifications, after sleep and personal care, Korean allocated more time in daily activities to relationship and leisure time, followed by education, paid work, and household management, with the order differing between each age group and gender. Three different classes of time use were classified at each age group. Education-centered time use was revealed to be mainly in the young, paid work-centered in the middle-aged, and relationship and leisure-centered in older adults. We find significant gender differences. Men’s patterns of time did not change markedly across the 3 years, while women’s patterns have shifted. Meanwhile, in the age 65 and older group, paid work appeared alongside as well as leisure among most prominent activities, were appeared as dominant forms of time use. This phenomenon is closely related to reflecting high rates of elderly poverty in Korea. Further discussions concerning the time use by age and gender were provided and countermeasures for changing time use in later life were discussed.     

Life Expectancy Index: Age Structure of Population and Environment Evolution

Social Indicators Research - Tolerance, Technology and Talent indexes that are found in the literature and used to compare cities tend to focus more on economic and technologic progress. However,...