新冠感染疫情下人口超额死亡及其影响因素——基于主要国家2020年和2021年的fsQCA分析

相比新冠感染疫情所引发的直接死亡人口,包含新冠感染疫情引发的间接死亡人口的超额死亡人口更能反映新冠感染疫情对人口死亡的影响,因而研究新冠感染疫情下各国超额死亡人口的差异及其原因,更有利于弄清新冠感染疫情大流行对人口死亡产生的影响。使用99个国家2020年1月到2021年12月的死亡人口及其他社会经济数据,借鉴机会平等理论,从“努力”和“环境”两个维度建立新冠感染疫情影响因素的分析框架,选择相关指标,使用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法研究了新冠感染疫情下各国人口超额死亡的差异及影响因素。研究发现如下。第一,各国人口超额死亡规模和人口超额死亡率差异明显,这种差异不仅存在于不同发展水平的国家之间,还存在于发展水平相同的国家之间,这意味着引起各国人口超额死亡的原因并不相同。第二,引起各国人口超额死亡的主要因素不同,这些因素不仅与各国的经济发展水平、医疗卫生水平等环境因素有关,还与疫苗接种等应对疫情的努力程度有关。一些欠发达国家因为经济发展水平较低,医疗卫生资源不足等原因面临较高的人口超额死亡;而一些经济发展较好,医疗卫生资源较丰富的国家,由于其防疫措施不力,也面临较高的人口超额死亡。第三...     

关于世界人口平均寿命的分析与我国人口平均寿命的增长趋势

在人口再生产过程中,同出生一样,死亡起着极其重要的作用。人口平均预期寿命(下面简称人口平均寿命或人口寿命)是人口分年龄死亡率的一个综合指标。它在人口预测中是一个重要参数。探查世界各国人口平均寿命的增长过程,了解影响人口平均寿命的各种因素,正确估计未来人口平均寿命的增长趋势,对于人口总数及人口年龄构成的预测具有十分重要的意义。 在人口再生产过程中,同出生一样,死亡起着极其重要的作用。人口平均预期寿命(下面简称人口平均寿命或人口寿命)是人口分年龄死亡率的一个综合指标。它在人口预测中是一个重要参数。探查世界各国人口平均寿命的增长过程,了解影响人口平均寿命的各种因素,正确估计未来人口平均寿命的增长趋势,对于人口总数及人口年龄构成的预测具有十分重要的意义。     

中国主要城市人口疾病死亡模式的动态研究

疾病死亡模式及其变化,反映一个国家或地区的社会卫生状况的改善和人群健康素质的提高。世界各国,尤其是发达国家十分重视人口死亡及其原因的登记和死亡模式的分析研究。在当今世界中,许多国家已经经历了由生物性传染性疾病到慢性非生物性疾病死亡模式     

我国劳动力资源发展趋势、特点和利用

劳动力资源,一般地说是总人口中处在劳动年龄的那一部分,由于各国经济发展水平不同,人们实际上进入劳动年龄和退出劳动年龄的时间也不一样,本文中以20—54岁为考察区间,55—56岁的人口,作为过渡性劳动人口来对待。 劳动人口既是总人口中的一部分,所以,一国人口再生产的趋势就决定了劳动人口的变化趋势。现在有的劳动人口数,取决于已往20—54年间的出生水平和历年的死亡水平,而20年后的劳动人口数,又由今天的人口增长状况和往后20年的死亡水平决定。     

人口年龄结构指数构造及在我国的应用

一、问题的提出 世界各国人口年龄结构差异悬殊,影响人口年龄结构变化的出生、死亡与迁移因素也千差万别。在一些书籍与文章里,时常能看到这样的论述:某一国家或地区的人口年龄结构合理、比较合理或不合理,我们还可看到因为某地区采取某项措施而改     

各国领导人关于稳定人口的声明

人类面临着很多艰巨的任务:实现各国间的持久和平;保持环境的质量;节约自然资源使其保持在可维持的水平;促进欠发达国家的经济和社会进步;稳定人口的增长.目前,我们地球上每年出生的人数要比死亡的人数多七千六百万.如果目前的出生率持续下去,那么,到二○○○年时,出生人数就会比死亡人数多出一亿.在过去十三年里增加了十亿人口,在今后十二年内还将增加十亿人口.     

全年龄人口死亡模型构建及应用——以江苏省为例

人口死亡特征不仅具有时间和区域属性,同时也具有年龄属性,多重属性决定了人口死亡规律的复杂性。在研究儿童少年期、青壮年期以及中老年期人口死亡模型的基础上,以江苏省为例构建了基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型,并对江苏省人口死亡过程进行了研究。研究表明：基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型能够细致刻画人口死亡过程依年龄变化的特点;江苏省儿童少年期、青壮年期和中老年期人口死亡模式可以分别采用威布尔对数线性模型、三次多项式模型和罗吉斯蒂模型来描述;近年来江苏省人口死亡水平不断下降,但各年龄层死亡水平下降特点不尽相同。     

中国老年人的社会参与对死亡风险的影响

运用全国老年人口健康状况调查(CLHLS)2002-2011年纵向数据,采用主成份分析,把社会参与分为文化组织活动和家事个人活动,分全国、城镇、乡村建立Cox等比例风险模型进行对比分析,研究发现总体上中国老年人的社会参与显著影响死亡风险;在全国和城镇范围内社会参与程度高的老年人死亡风险显著低于参与程度低的老年人,分别低7%和15%;在乡村文化组织活动参与程度较高显著降低死亡风险,相比参与程度较低的降低8%。无论全国、城镇、乡村,健康状况较好、女性、年龄较轻、去年家庭人均收入较高、单独居住或居在养老机构、生病时的照料者是家人的老年人死亡风险显著较低,患有慢病显著增加老年人的死亡风险。     

亚洲发展中国家和地区妇女实际生育水平与更替生育水平的评估

随着社会经济的发展,人口趋势发生转变,自然增长率与总和生育率降低。在这种大趋势背景下,对世界人口形势的判断有过于乐观之嫌以及针对人们对妇女更替生育水平的误解,利用亚洲一些国家(或地区)1990～2000年期间妇女年龄别生育率和死亡模式等数据资料,计算得到各国妇女更替生育水平,表明各国之间妇女更替水平存在较大差异。通过与其实际总和生育率比较,可以发现在发展国家中绝大部分国家实际生育水平依然高于妇女更替生育水平,发展中国家人口潜在的增长能量依然很大,世界人口增长的趋势依然强劲。因此,在注意生育率下降所带来问题的同时,也不能够忽视发展中国家人口增长所带来的全球影响。     

中日两国人口死亡比较分析

研究发达国家的人口死亡,有助于正确认识我国人口的死亡现状和为今后我国人口死亡变化的估测提供线索。本文对中日两国人口的死亡作了较为详细的比较,同时还分析了两国人口死亡形态上的差别。     

The effects of income level,income distribution,education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China

Conflicting empirical evidence on the role of income distribution on fertility rates is the impetus for this 1982 study of providence-specific Chinese Census data, excluding Tibet. The findings support the prior thesis of Repetto but utilize the micromethods and per household income measures of the competing findings of Boulier. It is cautioned that in the Chinese analysis equal income distribution depresses fertility, but China may not reflect world wide patterns. China did not have until recently a market incentive system, and there are income measurement problems. The data are per capita economic output not per capita income, and those high output areas which did not produce low fertility may actually have had households with low incomes. The importance of this research is in establishing that cross-province data are a useful tool in understanding the influence of income distribution on fertility. As with most developing countries, women's education, for instance, at least junior high education explained the largest variation of fertility differences among the 28 provinces. The urbanization variable when controlling for income was positive, unlike the other developing countries. The 1949 Chinese government's spatial industrial policy encouraged urbanization and industrialization in rural areas and family planning programs such that highly urbanized provinces have low population density. A variety of variables on income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization are discussed. OLSQ regressions were generated utilizing such independent variables as output per capita in yuan (YOUTHPC80), the square of YOUTHPC80 (YOUTHPC802), YOUTHPC80 multiplied by the average family size in each province (YOUTHPH80), and the squared value of YOUTHPH80.     

Does National Income Inequality Affect Individuals’ Quality of Life in Europe? Inequality,Happiness, Finances,and Health

This paper analyses the effect of income inequality on Europeans’ quality of life, specifically on their overall well-being (happiness, life satisfaction), on their financial quality of life (satisfaction with standard of living, affordability of goods and services, subjective poverty), and on their health (self-rated health, satisfaction with health). The simple bivariate correlations of inequality with overall well-being, financial quality of life, and health are negative. But this is misleading because of the confounding effect of a key omitted variable, national economic development (GDP per capita): Unequal societies are on average much poorer (r = 0.46) and so disadvantaged because of that. We analyse the multi-level European Quality of Life survey conducted in 2003 including national-level data on inequality (Gini coefficient) and economic development (GDP) and individual-level data on overall well-being, financial quality of life, and health. The individual cases are from representative samples of 28 European countries. Our variance-components multi-level models controlling for known individual-level predictors show that national per capita GDP increases subjective well-being, financial quality of life, and health. Net of that, the national level of inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, has no statistically significant effect, suggesting that income inequality does not reduce well-being, financial quality of life, or health in advanced societies. These result all imply that directing policies and resources towards inequality reduction is unlikely to benefit the general public in advanced societies.     

Racial differences in per capita income, 1960–76: The importance of household size,headship, and labor force participation

Racial differences in average per capita income are decomposed, as are changes over time for both races. The 1960–76 decline in household size accounted for 13 percent of the per capita income inprovement of both races. Whereas real increases in earnings of husbands contributed most to improvements in well-being in husband-wife households, increases in income from sources other than earnings were most important to female headed households. During a period in which a growing proportion of both races resided in female headed households and racial differences in living arrangements widened, the per capita income of female headed households relative to husband-wife households declined.     

Improvements in Life Expectancy: 1960–1995 an Exploratory Analysis

Human history observed significant changes in life expectancy over the last three and half decades (1960–1995). This study attempts to explore the determinant factors behind improvements in life expectancy in most of the countries in the Post World War II period. In this context the study estimates a double logarithmic convergence type model where the dependent variable is relative change of life over the period and the explanatory variables are initial per capita real gross domestic product, initial per capita calorie intake as percentage of requirement, adult literacy rate at the initial point of time, and initial physician per thousand of population. The study estimates different variants of the basic model. Female population has been treated separately. All estimates have been offered for three broad income groups low, middle and high. An attempt is also made to take into account the effects of some public health measures such as access to safe drinking water and access to sanitation.     

Human Capabilities Versus Human Capital: Guaging the Value of Education in Developing Countries

The purpose of this study is to defend the view that education should be evaluated in terms of the capability to achieve valued functionings, rather than mental satisfaction or resources. In keeping with Amartya Sen’s capabilities approach we argue that mental satisfaction provides an inaccurate metric of well-being because of the phenomenon of adaptive preferences. Equally, resources cannot be used as a metric of well-being because of inequalities in the ability to convert income and commodities into valued functionings. Hence, interpreting education as a means to create human capital is also impoverished because it evaluates education solely in terms of the accumulation of resources. In order to provide evidence in support of the human capabilities approach we statistically examine the channels through which educational attainment affects the health functionings implied by life expectancy. Using panel data analysis for 35 developing countries for the years 1990, 1995 and 2000 we compare the health functionings (as indicated by life expectancy) that are achieved by the income growth generated by educational attainment, with the total health functionings that are achieved by educational attainment. We find that educational attainment (as indicated by average years of schooling) has a significant effect on life expectancy independently of its effect by way of income growth. A 1% increase in per capita income increases life expectancy by 0.073954% while a 1% increase in average years of schooling directly increases life expectancy by 0.055324%. Because it shows that income underestimates the health functionings achieved by educational attainment, our empirical findings lend support to the claim that the value of education should be measured in terms of the capability for functioning, rather than resources.     

吉林省农村人口的收入分析

吉林省农村地区属于扩张过程中的欠发达地区,其特征为:农民的人均纯收入低于全国平均水平,但发展速度高于全国平均水平,正处于从欠发达地区向发达地区过渡的上升期。通过分析吉林省农民人均纯收入在时间上、结构上的变化,及其与全国平均水平、发达省份统计数据上的对比,进而提出增加农民收入的对策。     

A value based index for measuring national quality of life

A new index of the quality of life (QOL) of nations was created. The measured variables are selected based on a universal set of human values derived from the work of Schwartz (1994). The Basic QOL Index, designed primarily to discriminate between developing countries, includes seven variables: purchasing power, homicide rate, fulfillment of basic physical needs, suicide rate, literacy rate, gross human rights violations, and deforestation. The Advanced QOL Index, designed primarily to assess QOL in highly industrialized nations, includes seven variables: physicians per capita, savings rate, per capita income, subjective well-being, percent attending college, income equality, and environmental treaties signed. Combining the two indices produced a reliable measure of QOL that systematically covers diverse human values. The nations scoring highest on the Combined QOL Index were Canada, Switzerland, Netherlands, U.S.A., and Norway, and those scoring lowest were Ethiopia and Rwanda.     

The Geography of Economics and Happiness: Spatial Patterns in the Effects of Economic Conditions on Well-Being

This paper investigates the cross-country distribution of the relationship between economic conditions and well-being. Using a large sample of individuals from 94 countries worldwide, we find that the effect of income on well-being is larger in countries with lower GDP per capita, while the negative effect of being unemployed is stronger in countries with higher unemployment rate or higher GDP per capita. Interestingly, the effect of being unemployed displays positive spatial dependence across countries that is not accounted for by aggregate socio-economic conditions. Overall, the results indicate that geography, culture and institutions must be explicitly taken into account in order to understand the relationship between economic conditions and well-being.     

International Comparisons of Trends in Economic Well-being

This paper develops a new measure of economic well-being for selectedOECD countries for the period 1980 to 1996 and compares trends in thisnew Index to GDP per capita. We argue that the economic well-being ofa society depends on the level of average consumption flows, aggregateaccumulation of productive stocks, inequality in the distribution ofindividual incomes and insecurity in the anticipation of future income.However, the weights attached to each component will vary, dependingon the values of different observers. We argue that public debatewould be improved if there is explicit consideration of theaspects of economic well-being obscured by average income trends andif the weights attached to these aspects were made visible and wereopen for discussion.     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.