Measuring State TANF Policy Variations and Change After Reform*

Objectives. Our objectives are to describe the policies adopted after PRWORA, which vary across states, to test for common underlying policy concepts, demonstrating how these policies are interrelated, and to examine whether policy stringency diffused to neighboring states results in greater policy stringency across all states over time. We convert textual TANF welfare guidelines into empirically derived policy dimensions and use the derived quantitative scores to describe variation and change in welfare policy dimensions across status during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare‐reform period. Methods. Utilizing the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, we apply a factor analytic methodology to 78 unique state policy guidelines that were coded on a lenient‐to‐stringent continuum. Regression analyses, employing spatial contiguity weighting, are used to describe policy diffusion. Results. The results identified 15 underlying first‐order post‐welfare‐reform policy dimensions, which for scientific parsimony were further reduced to three second‐order underlying dimensions representing rules governing eligibility: eligibility requirements for groups, behavioral responsibilities for maintaining eligibility, and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Analysis of the quantitative scores showed that by 2003 states had become more lenient regarding eligibility criteria for groups but decidedly more stringent regarding behavioral guidelines for maintaining eligibility and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Spatial clustering is not found globally but is significant for some states at the local level. Spatial diffusion is apparent only for behavioral rules. Conclusions. Our results suggest that TANF policy variations across states go beyond payment levels to include salient eligibility rules. The patterns of variability in change scores across states do not support a pervasive “race to the bottom” conclusion.     

The Impact of Welfare Reform Policies on Child Protective Services: A National Study

The 1996 welfare reform bill set forth major changes in social welfare policies. In addition to federal work requirements and time limits, new state policies impose behavioral mandates that may be accompanied by financial sanctions for noncompliance. Analysis of a survey of state Child Protection Services (CPS) directors focuses on four major areas: effect of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) on CPS; interaction between the two agencies; role of TANF sanctions in referrals to CPS; and select special areas of concern. This research provides empirical insight into the interaction between these two agencies, specific TANF sanctions, and the potential conflicts between TANF policies and CPS concerns for the welfare of children and families under its charge.     

State Policy Choices and Responsiveness of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program During the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

The Great Recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 was the most severe recession since the Depression of the 1930s. To accurately explain the number of families and children receiving cash assistance from Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) during the 2007 recession, it is important to capture state-level variations in recessionary periods, economies, and TANF policies. This study breaks ground by using multiple regression to explain the number of families enrolled in the TANF program when the TANF caseload peaked in each of the 51 jurisdictions’ recessions as a function of their severe TANF policies while controlling for benefit levels, unemployment rates, and size of populations. Key findings strongly suggest that all else constant, TANF did not grow as much as it would have in the 2007 recession partially due to shorter lifetime limits (less than 60 months) or temporary time limits, multiple severe policies, or benefit cuts witnessed in some states. This study is important to policy makers and academics concerned with the effect of severe policies on the enrollment of needy families with children in the TANF program. The federal government should encourage states to relax some of their requirements during recessions. Future research should examine the consequences of severe TANF policies on the well-being of families with children during recessions.     

Resources and strategies of interest groups and industry representatives involved in federal forest policy

This study analyzes the resources and strategies of public interest groups and industry representatives involved in federal forest policy in the state of Oregon during the early 1990s. While many studies have examined the role of interest groups in the policy process, few have compared empirically the resources available and strategies pursued by industry representatives and public interest groups in a particular policy domain. Utilizing survey data from 133 business representatives and 326 public interest groups involved in federal forest policy, the study argues that public interest group influence derives primarily from the ability to mobilize human resources; the financial resources of these groups tend to be modest. Industry and industry-supported groups, in contrast, possess considerable financial power while enjoying less support from the public. Consequently, industry interests tend to focus their efforts on more traditional forms of influence such as the persistent lobbying of natural resource agencies and elected officials. Public interest groups, in contrast, tend to devote considerable efforts to building public support in urban core areas to build the capacity to pressure governmental decision-makers.     

How is ‘welfare‐to‐work’ shaped by contingencies of economy,welfare policy and human capital?

This research weighed the impact made by the economy, welfare policy and human capital on unemployed welfare mothers in the USA. Specifically, it asked how welfare mothers' employment status, poverty status, and enrolment for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) are affected by these three factors. Longitudinal data from the Survey of Income Program Participation (SIPP) provided a sample of TANF mothers. The SIPP data shed light on modes of economic adaptation exhibited by these mothers. Event history analysis was applied to the data (for years 1996–2000), and results were obtained showing that restrictive welfare policies combined with high unemployment can boost the number of working poor Americans by severing them from TANF. Human capital contingencies – which here comprised development of the sample's occupational skills, work experience and education – helped TANF mothers gain employment and even leave welfare. Some were able to do so and live above the poverty level. Social support, especially family support, was another factor included in this study that was found to be of some use to unemployed mothers in terms of finding work. Results bear several implications for TANF policy.     

Explaining Restrictive TANF Policies: Group Threat Hypothesis and State Economy Conditions

ABSTRACT

This study examined whether TANF policies' restrictiveness is related to states' racial composition and economic conditions. The data were extracted from various reports dated 2000–2014. Results from generalized least squares random-effects modeling showed the number of restrictive TANF policies to be associated positively with larger populations of Hispanic individuals and associated negatively with larger populations of African American individuals. No association was found between policies' restrictiveness and “other” minority population, nor between restrictiveness and either poverty or unemployment. One conclusion suggested by the analysis is that restrictive TANF policies result from dramatic increases in the Hispanic population that trigger the dominant group's resentment of ethnic minorities. Several policy implications are stated.     

Racial Disparities in Welfare Dependence and Financial Independence: Links to Human Capital,Local Economy,and State Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Policies

This secondary data analysis examined racial disparities in associations betwen welfare dependence/financial independence and human capital, local economy, and state TANF policies. A sample of 6,737 parents was extracted from the public-use data set titled “National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.” Results showed that restrictive TANF policies reduced African Americans’ likelihood of welfare use and increased likelihood of their financial independence. Multinomial logistic results also showed that, among Hispanics, employment growth in neighboring counties promoted welfare use; whereas among Caucasians such growth promoted financial independence. County poverty increased (a) Caucasians’ likelihood of welfare use and (b) Hispanics’ likelihood of being working poor; it decreased Caucasians’ and African Americans’ likelihood of financial independence. Across ethnic groups, education reduced likelihood of welfare use and working poor status; across minority groups, education increased likelihood of financial independence, but among Caucasians it decreased such likelihood. Across ethnic groups, occupational skills hindered dependence and improved odds of employment (regardless of welfare or poverty status). This study concluded the studied TANF policies and job markets were not color-blind. Interventions this study implies include less-restrictive TANF policies, generous support services, TANF staff cultural-competence training, and antidiscrimination rules. Research investigating particular TANF policies’ and services’ effects by ethnicity might prove useful.     

Output gap and non-linear economic convergence

We apply unit root tests in a multivariate TAR model with bootstrapping simulations to assess the influence of short-run economic conditions on long-run economic convergence and to extract economic policy implications. We use two different groups of countries whose members share important business cycle characteristics over the period 1953–2010. We show that per capita income convergence is not uniform along the business cycle and our analysis reveals that, apart from growth-led actions and structural reforms to avoid the evolution towards different national stationary states – especially within the euro zone – short-run stabilisation policies are vividly advised to guarantee long-run economic convergence.     

宗教与美国公共政策

美国宪法实行＂政教＂分离原则,禁止教会干预国家政务,但事实上,宗教组织在美国政治体制中如同利益集团一样运作,以各种方式参与和影响公共政策的制定,以确保自己的宗教利益。鉴于美国宗教组织在教义信仰和组织结构上呈多元化,它们对公共政策的影响方式和程度也各自相异,主要取决于历史传统、教义信条、内部团结力量、外部反对力量、战略地位和时代精神等因素。     

An Analysis of Welfare Participation: Rational-Choice Perspective and Group-Threat Hypothesis

ABSTRACT

This secondary data analysis examined the impacts of human capital, child care, fringe benefits, child support, ethnicity, county economy, and county minority-population size on participation in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) by parents living at or below the federal poverty threshold. Longitudinal records of 1,789 such parents were extracted from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1996–2008). Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression showed that having personal/family problems, being African American, and residing in a county with widespread unemployment were associated positively with TANF receipt. TANF receipt was associated negatively with employment offering a retirement plan, full-time employment, part-time employment, and residence in a county with a large Hispanic population. Future research might explore the relationship between subpopulations’ sizes and states’ TANF policies.     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

Citizenship Status and TANF Exits: A Proportional Hazard Model

ABSTRACT

This study compared exits between citizen and noncitizen heads of household from the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program. With longitudinal monthly administrative data and a Cox proportional hazard model, the study examined how the economy and recipients’ personal characteristics affected their exits. The sample consisted of 28,308 families headed by citizens and 2,547 families headed by a noncitizen on TANF. Key findings reveal that families on TANF exit the rolls primarily during the first 8 months after entrance. Results showed that families headed by a noncitizen remain on TANF longer than families headed by a citizen. The roles of minimum wage and unemployment in shaping the risk of exit for noncitizen compared to citizen families were explored. Suggestions for further research and how to serve recipients best in times of economic downturns are provided. Similar research needs to be conducted in states where temporary TANF time limits do not exist.     

Expanding the Scope of Conflict: Interest Groups and Interstate Compacts*

This study looks at how the characteristics of states' interest group environments affect state participation in interstate compacts. Drawing on prominent theories of interest system characteristics, we hypothesize that interest group density and concentration will influence a state's propensity to join compacts. Method. Using pooled cross‐sectional time‐series event‐count models, we test our hypotheses for 48 states over a 30‐year period. Results. We find that states with denser interest group systems are more likely to join interstate compacts, but that greater concentration of organized interests in a few economic sectors impedes compact formation. Additional analyses show that the effects of state interest group systems vary across types of interest groups and compacts. In particular, the effects of interest group density appear to be driven primarily by not‐for‐profit groups generating increased state participation in noneconomic compacts. Conclusion. Interstate cooperation is influenced in important ways by characteristics of interest group environments.     

Exiting TANF: Individual and Local Factors and Their Differential Influence Across Racial Groups*

Objective. We ask whether individual and local factors known to influence reliance on welfare continue to be important under the TANF program, and if such factors differentially affect exit from TANF for African Americans and whites. Methods. We use monthly administrative data on TANF recipients from October 1996 to July 2004 from the Mississippi Department of Human Services. These data are linked to local economic, social, and spatial characteristics to estimate discrete time hazard models of TANF exit. Results. Personal barriers to work (e.g., low education and children) and limited economic and social opportunities in communities reduce the likelihood of leaving TANF. The results show that African‐American exits from TANF are more influenced by human capital and local economic, social, and spatial conditions than are whites' TANF exits. Conclusion. The work‐first initiative under TANF is most viable where individual barriers to work are limited and economic opportunities and community support to become self‐sufficient exist for all people.     

Political economy and the adoption of everyday environmental policies in the American states, 1997: an exploratory analysis

The political economy model has been widely and effectively used to explain and predict adoption rates of highly salient and/or controversial policies in the American states. However, use of this model to predict policy adoption in noncontroversial domains has been limited. This article tests the extent to which the model is successful in explaining the adoption of less-salient, everyday policies intended to improve environmental quality among the American states. The addition of conditional terms related to the model's political and bureaucratic components resulted in explaining 57% of the variance in commitment to everyday environmentalism among the American states. In sum, the number of everyday environmental policies adopted by state governments is a function of economic considerations, legislative accountability and professionalism, bureaucratic commitment, political culture and previous levels of policy adoption. Alternately—and unlike more controversial environmental policy domains—partisanship, ideology, party control of government and interest group forces do not have an impact on adoption of everyday environmental policies.     

Policy Stable States in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A new approach to policy analysis is formulated within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. A policy is defined as a plan of action for a decision maker (DM) that specifies the DM’s intended action starting at every possible state in a graph model of a conflict. Given a profile of policies, a Policy Stable State (PSS) is a state that no DM moves away from (according to its policy), and such that no DM would prefer to change its policy given the policies of the other DMs. The profile of policies associated to a PSS is called a Policy Equilibrium. Properties of PSSs are developed, and a refinement is suggested that restricts DMs to policies that are credible in that they are in the DM’s immediate interest. Relationships with existing stability definitions in the graph model for conflict resolution are then explored.     

State Policies as a Source of Civil Law*

State policies exert a great influence over Chinese civil justice. Article 6 of the General Principles of Civil Law stipulates that state policies are a source of civil law, but the path by which they enter civil justice is not a rational one and may lead to adjudication difficulties with state policies. State policies are integrated with state law, and the laws and legal interpretations formulated by the National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee, judicial interpretations, administrative regulations, autonomous regulations and special regulations, administrative rules and other regulatory documents are forms of expression of state policies. Different rules for adjudication apply depending on the different vehicles of state policy. The Supreme People’s Court can play a role in making public policy and guiding state policy into civil adjudication through “open” and “unseen” channels.     

The evolution of family policy in South Korea: From Confucian familism to Neo‐familism

The aim of this article is to trace the trajectory of family policy development in South Korea from the 1940s to the present. Changes to family intervention are analyzed in terms of the settings of policy instruments, the policy instruments themselves, and policy goals (or policy regimes). Consequently, two critical turning points are identified: the late 1980s and the early 2000s. The first period (1945–1988) was an era of embryonic Korean family policy when family intervention was limited and indirect based on Confucian familism. During the second period (1998–2003), explicit family policies emerged, but the Korean government kept family intervention to a minimum; maintained a division of roles between the state, the market, and families (the state as the regulator and the market/families as the providers); and maintained patriarchal family relations and gendered family roles based on Confucian familism. However, the third period (2003–2016) shows the explosive expansion of family policies and changes in policy goals and regimes based on Neo‐familism, which emphasizes democratic and equal gender relations within families and a family‐friendly/supportive society.     

Indigenous family life in Australia: A history of difference and deficit

Indigenous family life has been a key target of family and child policies in Australia since colonisation. In this paper, we identify four main policy eras that have shaped the national and state policy frameworks that have impacted Indigenous families: the protectionism, assimilation, self-determination and neoliberalism eras. Our analysis of these national and state policy frameworks reveals an enduring and negative conceptualisation of Indigenous family life. This conceptualisation continues to position Indigenous families as deficient and dysfunctional compared with a white, Anglo-Australian family ideal. This contributes to the reproduction of paternalistic policy settings and the racialised hierarchies within them that entrench Indigenous disempowerment and reproduce Indigenous disadvantage. Further, it maintains a deficit paradigm that continues to obfuscate the positive aspects of Indigenous family life that are protective of Indigenous well-being.     

Targeting Democracies: Regime Type and America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

Objectives . The American trade policy instrument Section 301 authorizes the president to demand changes in foreign states' trade policies and to fortify these demands with threats of sanctions. I examine the economic and political factors that influence the selection of states as targets for Section 301 proceedings. Methods . I develop an argument connecting a state's regime type to the likelihood that it will be targeted under Section 301. Controlling for other relevant factors, democratic states are predicted to have a higher probability of being targeted. I test the hypothesis in a set of regression models on cross–sectional time series data with both targeting incidence and targeting frequency as dependent variables. Results . States with more open and competitive political systems are more likely to be targeted under Section 301. Of the included variables, only a state's regime type and the size of its trade relationship with the United States have consistently significant effects across alternative model specifications. Conclusions . Section 301 plays on the rivalry between protectionist and export–oriented interests by demanding reductions in trade barriers and backing them up with threats directed against export industries. Industries currently favored by protectionist policies have a higher chance of losing such a political contest in a political system more open to interest–group competition. The institutional form of political competition within a state affects the state's response to international pressure on trade policy.