包容性增长：中国经济从量变向质变切换

“包容性增长”概念的提出,正当其时。包容性增长最基本的含义是公平合理地分享经济增长。中国经济、社会需要科学发展,需要“包容性增长”,就当下及未来一段时间而言,关键是如何将这一概念融入经济、社会发展的政策与实践中。倡导包容性增长须去经济增长的GDP化;践行包容性增长必须优先开发人力资本;强化包容性增长需要加快实现基本公共服务均等化;实现包容性增长需要着力推进城乡发展一体化;推进包容性增长需要深化收入分配制度改革;加快包容性增长需要始终追求社会公平正义。     

The Effects of Minimum Wage Increases on Retail Employment and Hours: New Evidence from Monthly CPS Data

Proponents of state and federal minimum wage increases argue that past minimum wage hikes have not adversely affected retail employment. However, the existing empirical evidence is mixed. This study uses monthly data from the 1979–2004 Current Population Survey to provide new estimates of the effect of minimum wage increases on retail employment and hours worked. The findings suggest evidence of modest adverse effects. A 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 1% decline in retail trade employment and usual weekly hours worked. Larger negative employment and hours effects are observed for the least experienced workers in the retail sector. These results are robust across a number of specifications, but are sensitive to controls for state time trends.

Unions and productivity: Evidence from academe

In order to test competing hypotheses about the effect of unions on labor productivity, we examine research performance in a sample of 889 Ph.D.-granting departments (175 unionized) in public universities. We find no support for the hypothesis that unions enhance productivity in academe. If we compare union and nonunion departments endowed with (sample) mean amounts of labor and capital, we find that unionization is associated with a 17 percent reduction in output of published articles and a 9 percent reduction in peers’ survey evaluations of a department’s level of scholarly achievement.     

谈经济增长方式转型

转变经济增长方式,首要的是深化改革。收入分配、腐败、消费比重过低、外贸不平衡等问题,需要通过深化改革加以解决。如果将双轨制改革遗留的弊病革除掉,形成一个有效的市场,经济增长会很快,产业也会继续升级;在产业升级的过程中,政府发挥作用,经济增长是可以持续的。我国经济持续高速增长的潜力很大,而且在经济增长的过程中,收入分配会持续改善,消费比重也会提高,投资比重则会下降,并且生态环境也会随着我国进入高收入国家行列、经济结构向服务业逐渐转型以及实施环境治理而不断改善。     

当前经济形势分析及相关政策建议

2014年中国经济增速将低于2013年,季度经济增速可能低于7%:经济依然处于下行周期中;全社会固定资产投资将结束年增长20%以上的历史;中国依然不会出现通货膨胀问题;地方政府债务泡沫、某些产能泡沫有可能破灭并引发短暂的阵痛,但这些小泡沫的破灭有利于经济长期发展、有利于大局。我国经济增速放慢是规律使然,是消化产能过剩的过程中必须经历的,是调整结构、转型升级的过程中必须经历的,是消化刺激政策后遗症的过程中必须经历的,也是深化改革的过程中必须经历的。     

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

The relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty, investment and economic growth is an empirical issue in developing countries. This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment and economic growth in Pakistan for the period 1975–2008 by using the accelerator model of investment and endogenous growth model. The conditional variances, directly estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for erecting the uncertainty variables related to fiscal policy, openness and foreign capital inflows. The results clearly indicate that the macroeconomic uncertainty have significant negative effects on investment and per capita income of Pakistan. We conclude that a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty through appropriate fiscal and monetary policy, stability in capital inflows and improved trade performance could result in high investment and sustainable economic growth in the country.     

Economic abuse,physical violence,and union formation

Intimate partner violence often includes economic abuse; unfortunately, economic abuse has not been examined sufficiently in the literature. Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, this paper examined the occurrence of and changes in economic abuse and physical violence over time and how these factors influenced union formation. The results indicated that the prevalence of economic and physical abuse increased over time, particularly for economic abuse. The changes in union formation for cohabiting and visiting mothers were quite substantial over time. Regression analyses indicated that, over time, the occurrence and the increase of economic abuse and the increase of physical violence were significantly and negatively associated with the likelihood of stable union formations such as marriage and cohabitation. Policy and research implications are discussed.     

Growth and Inflation Disparities in Corridor V

The paper offers a brief discussion about the role of transport infrastructure in the current growth strategy followed by the European Union. As a corridor is the locus where transport infrastructure and growth should interact more effectively, the central part of the Corridor V is considered as an interesting case study. A growth scenario for eight countries is provided to show that wide growth disparities are to be expected during the next decade. The final part of the paper speculates about inflation differentials that are likely to emerge when growth differentials tend to persist inside a monetary union. As the Euro zone will be enlarged to host fast-growers in Corridor V such as Slovenia (maybe as soon as 2007), Hungary, and the Slovak Republic, growth differentials and the single monetary policy could make it difficult to deliver a common monetary environment.     

Search online: Evidence from acquisition of information on online job boards and resume banks

While online job boards and resume banks have improved access to information about available jobs and job searchers, little is known about how much of this information gets actually disseminated among participants in the labor market. On the basis of novel data, we find that employers and job searchers prefer to visit resume banks and job boards with more postings. However, once on the site, the number of postings that a typical visitor reviews is not affected by the number of available postings and represents a small fraction of all postings on the site. These findings suggest that employers and job searchers acquire limited amount of information about available job searchers and jobs online even though additional information is easily accessible and available free of charge.     

从PPI变化看当前稳增长与化解过剩产能

我国经济稳增长必须把化解过剩产能作为一项重要任务,这既是减少经济波动的需要,也是转变经济发展方式,为新兴产业发展腾笼换鸟的必然要求。建议多管齐下,实行五大战略:坚持实施扩大内需战略,大力促进消费需求增长和稳步推进城市化;坚持实施走出去战略,积极拓展国际新兴市场和转移国内过剩生产能力;坚持实施产业创新升级战略,大力优化行业技术和产品结构;坚持实施淘汰落后产能战略,严格控制过剩行业产能扩张;坚持建立健全产业引导调控战略,促进产业有序竞争发展。     

Racial Submarkets in Government Employment: African American Managers in New York State

This paper reports on a study of the employment situation of African American managers within New York State government. We argue that affirmative action, while having created employment opportunities for minority professionals, has also created racial submarkets in government. We identify three categories of jobs, a mainstream category and two sorts of minority categories, based on the racial composition of incumbents and constituencies that they serve. African Americans in minority submarket positions appear to have equal pay relative to comparable African Americans in mainstream jobs. They are less likely to have civil service job protection. There is limited mobility between submarkets; more professionals move from the mainstream to minority positions than vice versa. In the current period of budget reductions in state government, black professionals experience considerable job insecurity and express dissatisfaction with the policies that created the minority submarket.     

Employment of Unwed Mothers: The Role of Government and Social Support

This paper assesses which types of government and social support predict employment among unwed mothers the year after childbirth. We performed logistic regression analysis on a nationally-representative, mother-only subset of the Fragile Families public-use baseline and 1-year follow-up data. Unwed mothers were more likely to be employed if they received WIC, employment agency assistance, or instrumental social support. They were less likely to be employed if they received TANF, food stamps, housing subsidies, SSI, public housing, or cohabited with a partner. Targeted nutrition programs, employment agencies, and instrumental social support seemed to facilitate employment. Other social programs and cohabiting either served as disincentives to work or gave unwed mothers the option to remain home, depending on the perspective taken.This paper used data from The Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study funded by a grant from NICHD (#R01HD36916) and a consortium of private foundations. We thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in South East Europe

Economic freedom, understood as absence of barriers for business entry, business operations and business exit, is a source of economic development. Its impact is indirect: through institutions framework creation and environment that encourages economic development. Primarily, economic freedoms are a reflection of institutional arrangement, which makes business operations and the realization of business ideas easier for entrepreneurs and managers, who are two extremely important groups for economic development. The aim of the paper is to present empirical analysis of interrelation between economic freedom and economic development, expressed through several indicators, such as gross domestic product, income per capita, foreign direct investment per capita.     

广州经济发展与水环境的关系

本文利用1981—2008年广州水污染数据,从时序维度实证考察广州水污染与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系和双向动态作用特征,并利用EVIEWS分别构造了两个水污染变量与人均GDP的误差修正模型。结果表明：水污染与经济增长之间存在稳定的协整关系,但短期相互作用不明显;经济增长是水污染的格兰杰原因;经济增长对水污染的方差贡献大于水污染对经济增长的方差贡献,但贡献度很低。     

Welfare State and Social Enterprise in Transition: Evidence from Serbia

This paper analyses welfare regime changes in Serbia and their impact on social enterprise development in the last two decades. We cover the period of significant transition-related reforms within the welfare state, with important implications on the position of these enterprises. Using data gathered from the qualitative field research, our study shows that there are two broad groups of factors that are important for development of the new generation of social enterprises, those that emerged in the last decade with an idea to foster entrepreneurial spirit and expanded into new domains other than those providing assistance to the marginalized groups. First, their decision to enter the social economy sector still depends on the environment created by the state. Secondly, their sustainability is affected by the factors typically found in any other enterprise of comparable scale like business skills, capacity to form networks and partner with relevant stakeholders.     

城市人口空间分散与经济增长——基于特大城市的实证分析

人口集聚产生规模效益,从而带来经济增长,这是大多数实证研究得到的结果,但随着城市规模的不断扩大,一系列城市问题逐渐凸显出来,对城市发展产生了一定影响。因此,越集聚是否越好逐渐成为研究的关注点。本研究从人口集聚的对立面——人口分散角度来探讨是否特大城市已出现集聚不经济。通过对34个特大城市的实证研究,结果发现人口分散对经济增长具有显著促进作用,也就意味着集聚可能对经济增长产生了副作用。研究还发现分散对经济增长不是一种持续的促进作用,而是呈现出倒U型趋势,即过度分散并不利于经济增长。     

“Me,the street,and a backpack”: employment,income, and physical capital in rural recovery

ABSTRACT

Recovery capital is a framework for understanding individuals’ resources for recovery from substance misuse. In a qualitative analysis of rural individuals in recovery (N = 49), the role of physical capital emerged prominently across ten focus groups. Participants highlighted the effects of employment status, income, and other forms of physical capital directly, as well as indirect effects through changes in human capital. Negative cultural capital components, in the form of stigma and employment discrimination, were described as barriers to physical capital acquisition and successful recovery. Based on these findings, we discuss rural recovery challenges and propose a model of recovery capital interactions.     

Employment effects of skills around the world: Evidence from the PIAAC

Using an international survey that directly assesses the cognitive skills of participants, the author studies the effect of skills on employment in 32 countries. On average, a 1 standard deviation increase in numeracy is associated with an 8.4 percentage point increase in the probability of being employed, reducing the probability of being out of the labour force and unemployed by 6.4 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. After controlling for numeracy, the estimated employment effect of years in education falls by one third, from 2.7 to 1.8 percentage points. Notably, the employment effect of skills is more pronounced in countries with higher unemployment.     

Living Arrangements, Employment Status, and the Economic Well-Being of Mothers: Evidence from Brazil, Chile, and the U.S

Using data from Brazil, Chile, and the U.S., we estimate country specific models of household income that characterize mothers according to their marital status, living arrangement, and employment status. We assess the predicted economic well-being of each type of mother relative to a benchmark of married mothers in the same country, and at various points in the income distribution. We find dramatic cross-country differences in the distribution of mothers across categories, but few differences in each type's relative economic status. In all three countries and at all points in the income distribution, mothers who are the only adults in their households have the lowest levels of predicted income, while married mothers—followed closely by cohabitors—have the highest levels.     

Foreign Investments as the Main Determinant Growth Factor in Asian Countries and Regions

The paper considers the main drivers of Asian growth and connects them with three groups of analyses tracks. Foreign direct investments, as the elective factor incorporating the main trends and perspectives, both at economic and financial level and in the social and political framework. Second, the regional approach, resulting more and more as the key, crucial factor in developing openness and international competitiveness, at the appropriate scale of convergence and integration in the worldwide system, has been presented in its EU connections and in the Asian peculiarities. Finally, as a third area of analysis, the new theories of growth and the capabilities already achieved to measure phenomena that were still not affordable only twenty years ago. The final results of the foresight model for evaluating long-term growth and the associated applied elaborations by the Deutsche Bank Research have almost figured out the proximity to an alternative theoretical scientific and modelling ``corpus' for the existing growth studies, specifically considering the Asian and emerging countries' recent jump into a high rates trend development, with the focus on China and India. For all these three analyses, the paper underlines the relevance for Asia to consider the experiences and successful steps of the European ``efficient laboratory', in a process of real integration towards the union of economies, societies, currencies, and security policies that has been investigated from different points of view, with the aim to focus the possible partnership and the future cooperation.