多代新技术的最优投资策略和扩散研究——一种实物期权方法

本文通过将新技术的出现描述为泊松过程,在未来多代新技术和投资成本随新技术出现不断下降的情形下,通过新技术采纳的累积概率分布函数,研究企业最优的技术投资策略以及新技术的扩散过程。在分析未来两代新技术的情形时,对比净现值(NPV)法则下得到的企业最优投资策略,由于NPV法忽视了企业推迟投资的期权价值,企业在NPV方法下只能得到次优的决策。数字释例显示出企业的技术采纳行为如何受到创新速度、折现率、投资成本及其下降幅度的影响。进一步在无穷代新技术的情形下,得到了企业最迟投资时间的计算方法。本文模型可以用来预测现实中企业的投资策略,并为实证分析新技术的采纳和扩散过程提供了理论支持。     

The interplay between psychometric and sociometric data and the willingness to adopt innovations

Due to high failure rates of new products, marketers are seeking ways to actively manage the diffusion of innovations. It is well accepted that individuals, who exert a remarkably strong influence on others and are usually called opinion leaders, play an important role in the diffusion process. In marketing, such opinion leaders are typically identified by self-designation, which can be biased. A second option to identify opinion leaders is the use of sociometric data which becomes increasingly available. In this paper we examine the effect of social position on the perceived opinion leadership and the resulting behavioral intention in terms of adoption behavior. In an empirical study, we examine the adoption of a new drug called “Byetta” and find that sociometric opinion leadership is an antecedent of the psychometric characteristic. Our results also confirm that such opinion leaders are more likely to adopt innovations. We also find that opinion seekers, individuals who often sought information or opinions from interpersonal sources, can be more easily identified with psychometric data. They are more restrictive in terms of adoption. Interestingly, both types are active as market mavens and thus may either advocate the adoption of the innovation or may be frankly conservative regarding the new product adoption. If opinion seekers can, however, be persuaded to adopt the innovation, they may also serve as an important multiplier. This has several implications for pharmaceutical firms that try to optimize their sales force—influencing opinion leaders may indeed start and fasten the adoption process of innovative products. But it is also necessary to allay opinion seekers’ doubts since they might slow down the adoption process. The identification of opinion leaders might not only be based on difficult to obtain psychometric data, but also on sociometric data from social networks, which is becoming more and more available.     

Examining the Impact of Pre‐Implementation Expectations on Post‐Implementation Use of Enterprise Systems: A Longitudinal Study

This article builds upon the technology acceptance model and theories of technology sensemaking to explore pre‐enterprise system adoption expectations and post‐enterprise system adoption outcomes in a longitudinal setting. Building on the exploitation and exploration paradigm, we propose that task productivity and task innovation expectations are the key drivers of users’ pre‐adoption enterprise system usage intention. Further, we argue that the enterprise system facilitates generation of a common knowledge base that may encourage a more integrated organizational culture and promote shared understanding among employees. Considering the distinction between mandatory and voluntary contexts, we propose that user acceptance of the enterprise system at the pre‐ and post‐adoption stages will mediate these relationships in a mandatory context. The results show that the influence of pre‐adoption expectations regarding task productivity and task innovation on intention to use an enterprise system is mediated by user acceptance of the enterprise system. Intention to use an enterprise system is positively related to actual use. At the post‐adoption stage, the influence of actual use on shared understanding is mediated by user acceptance of an enterprise system and enterprise system use has a direct negative impact on task efficiency in the initial period after implementation. Overall, the results highlight that user acceptance at both pre‐ and post‐adoption stages are critical factors when usage is mandatory. These findings suggest a number of important implications for research and for managerial action.     

Understanding the Role of Individual Innovativeness in the Acceptance of IT‐Based Innovations: Comparative Analyses of Models and Measures*

As new technological innovations are rapidly introduced and changed, identifying an individual characteristic that has a persistent effect on the acceptance decisions across multiple technologies is of substantial value for the successful implementation of information systems. Augmenting prior work on individual innovativeness within the context of information technology, we developed a new measure of adopter category innovativeness (ACI) and compared its effectiveness with the existing measure of personal innovativeness in IT (PIIT). Further, we examined two alternative models in which the role of individual innovativeness was theorized differently—either as a moderator of the effects the perceived innovation characteristics of usefulness, ease of use, and compatibility have on future use intention (moderator model) or as a direct determinant of the innovation characteristics (direct determinant model). To ensure the generalizability of the study findings, two field studies (N= 634) were conducted, each of which examined the two models (moderator and direct determinant) and measured individual innovativeness using the two measures (ACI and PIIT). Study 1 surveyed the online buying practices of 412 individuals, and Study 2 surveyed personal digital assistant adoption of 222 healthcare professionals. Across the markedly different adoption contexts, the study results consistently show that individual innovativeness is a direct determinant of the innovation characteristics, and the two measures share many commonalities. The new measure offers some additional utilities not found in the PIIT measure by allowing individuals to be directly classified and mapped into adopter categories. Implications are drawn for future research and practice.     

Modelling the factors that influence the acceptance of digital technologies in e-government services in the UAE: a PLS-SEM Approach

Abstract

The digital technologies such as Internet play a crucial role in the management of operations of organisations in both public and private sectors. Such technologies support the implementation of effective digital business strategies. By reviewing the extant literature, this paper aims to identify factors that influence the intention to use digital technologies in order to develop a theoretical model which is then tested empirically using the PLS-SEM approach. While many studies have focused solely on the importance of social influence, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, awareness, perceived trust in technology, perceived trust in government, perceived cost and perceived risk, this article brings them together to explain their linkage, and quantifies the relationship. This study is the first empirical attempt to explore the factors influence e-government services adoption in the UAE. Most specifically, this article emphasises the role of social influence, perceived ease to use and perceived trust in technology as the important determinants of the intention to digital technology adoption. The paper expands the traditional discussion by incorporating six variables in a model that acts as facilitator or barrier in the intention to use digital technologies. This article helps practitioners to understand of which factors should be given emphasis in enhancing the intention to use digital technologies. The model developed in this paper is not only a response to the need to understand what causes the variation in the intention to use digital technologies from the operation management perspective, it is also a response to practitioner needs to use an appropriate construct to ensure the effective operation and use of the digital technologies in e-government services. The paper will help to identify the key issues surrounding the digital technologies adoption that may lead the successful operations of e-government.     

基于随机网络的创新扩散研究

基于ER随机图模型建立创新扩散网络,通过虚拟潜在采纳个体的决策过程,研究了创新潜在采纳主体行为、扩散网络结构与性质对创新微观采纳和宏观扩散的影响。实验结果表明,内部影响和外部影响共同决定一个成功的创新扩散。潜在采纳个体越倾向于从同质邻居个体处获取创新的评价信息,创新的扩散深度越大。随着潜在采纳者数量的增大,创新扩散的深度呈现周期性波动的特点。潜在采纳者的平均邻居数、扩散网络的聚集系数和平均路径长度与创新扩散的深度存在非单调的变化关系。创新潜在采纳主体行为、扩散网络结构与创新扩散的速度无关。实验结果有助于创新推广者制定有效的创新营销策略。     

网络创新背景下隐私关注与保护意图跨情境研究——以购物、招聘、游戏和搜索行业为例

企业利用新技术、新手段收集、分析和处理消费者信息以供市场分析时使用,其间蕴涵的信息安全及用户隐私外泄等问题始终困扰着企业.为解决该问题,学术界以网络隐私为中心展开研究,考察了单一情境下隐私关注对保护意图的影响,但是在跨情境的环境下两者的变化情况及两者之间关系的变化趋势还有待研究.为此,基于任务类型理论提炼4个网站类型(购物、招聘、游戏和搜索),再根据期望价值理论提出假设.经实验室实验研究表明,在C2C购物情境中隐私关注对保护意图具有显著的正向影响,而在招聘、游戏和搜索情境中的影响不显著.在这4类网络情境间,隐私关注差异不显著但保护意图差异显著.最后,基于研究发现向学者及管理实践者提出了建议.     

The Taiwan system of innovation in the tool machine industry: a case study

Recent evidence suggests that the Taiwan’s machine tool industry as a whole is prominent in the world, ranking sixth in output and fifth in exports. This paper explores the current status and features of Taiwan’s national systems of innovation (NSI) for its machine tool industry. It is suggested that five major elements of the NSI explain the extensive diffusion of new technologies in the industry, namely: industry clusters, educational system, bridging institutions, government policy, and global business environment. Further, the structural and institutional problems of the innovation system are identified. Future directions of technology development are also discussed.     

Individual adoption of convergent mobile phone in Italy

The present study integrates the technology acceptance and convergence streams of research to develop and test a model of individual adoption of convergent mobile technologies. Adopting structural equation modelling, we hypothesize that relative advantage, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions affect directly individual attitude and, indirectly the intention to use convergent mobile technologies. The model explains a highly significant 53.2% of the variance for individual attitude, while individual attitude accounts for 33.9% of the variance in behavioral intention. Authors are listed alphabetically.     

企业产品创新的扩散与采纳者的行为决策模式研究

在SIR模型基础上,根据信息经济学理论从个体层面研究了产品创新扩散过程中采纳者行为决策的决定因子及其行为选择方式,同时得出了一些促进产品创新扩散的重要结论.     

A framework for evaluating the benefits of collaborative technologies in engineering innovation networks

In times of rapid economic change, the decrease in knowledge value becomes inversely proportional to its speed of obsolescence, with successful organisations seeking to connect more rapidly and more effectively with others in the creation of new knowledge. The past decade has seen a growing interest in communities of practice as a method for transferring and generating knowledge within product development, rooted as they are in the nature of knowledge creation as a socially embedded process. Given the widespread adoption of collaborative technologies as facilitative platforms for innovation in the interactions of contemporary communities of practice, the objective of this research is to develop an evaluation paradigm and employ it to examine how such interaction is facilitated through the medium of Web 2.0 technologies. The contribution of this research to theory and innovation technology practice will be to further the understanding of collaborative technologies by examining the impact of Web 2.0 technologies on engineering innovation networks. Furthermore, it brings together the three diverse research areas of technology innovation, internet collaborative tools and psychological barriers and enablers.     

财务策略对新技术采用决策的影响

假定未来随机出现的技术创新会造成现有新技术价值的下降,给出新技术价值估计和采用决策模型,进而分析杠杆融资时新技术的投资(采用)决策.研究结果表明,财务危机和融资约束会延缓新技术的采用;债务融资对新技术投资门槛值的影响依其融资水平的变化而发生变化;由于财务策略的作用,随着技术创新速度和创新程度的增加,企业可能加快对新技术的采用.     

The Effect of Perceived Novelty on the Adoption of Information Technology Innovations: A Risk/Reward Perspective

A fundamental characteristic of any innovation is its novelty, the newness or freshness of the innovation in the eyes of the adopter. Past research has often considered novelty to be inherent to an information technology (IT) innovation, yet it is also likely that perceptions of novelty differ widely across individuals. Nevertheless, the role that the novelty of an IT innovation plays in adoption is not well understood. The primary goal of this research effort is to frame the perceived novelty of an IT innovation as a salient affective belief in the nomological network related to adoption. Further, we examine how perceived novelty influences the way individuals reconcile their perceptions of risk versus reward when considering the adoption of an IT innovation. Two empirical studies with 424 and 138 participants, respectively, examine the effect of perceived novelty on IT innovations from a risk/reward perspective. Results indicate that perceived novelty is a salient affective belief that plays a significant role in the adoption of IT innovations. Implications for both theory and organizational decision making are examined.     

The Impact of Outsourced Manufacturing on Timing of Entry in Uncertain Markets

Several firms are interested in manufacturing and selling new products based on a new process technology. Before manufacturing can begin, either these Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), or a Contract Manufacturer (CM) needs to adopt the process technology, i. e., make a capacity investment in it. Due to market uncertainty, the timing of capacity investment is crucial. In such a setting, we investigate how the timing of process adoption, an important determinant of time‐to‐market, is impacted by the make/buy decision. We first characterize the optimal time for process adoption and show that this delay depends on competitive intensity, cost structure and the rate of forecast improvement. Due to differing cost structures, incentives and risks, an OEM and a CM may invest in a new process technology at different times. We show that while there are conditions where outsourced manufacturing can be advantageous for the OEM from a time‐to‐market perspective, there are also cases where the OEM would be disadvantaged. In these cases, the OEM can accelerate process adoption by risk sharing through joint investment. Finally, the right choice of CM is extremely important for an OEM that faces a short time window for product introduction: An efficient CM not only provides low costs but also rapid access to new process technologies, and therefore higher revenues.     

基于演化博弈的绿色技术创新环境政策选择研究：政府行为VS.公众参与

在中国“双碳”目标背景下,如何通过有效的环境政策驱动绿色技术创新以缓解节能减排压力是亟需解决的重要现实问题。本文基于多主体关系分析、演化博弈理论、情景模拟仿真方法,构建政府和企业、公众和企业的两方演化博弈模型以及政府、公众和企业的三方演化博弈模型,并在此基础上,进行不同情景模式和不同执行力度下的政策模拟仿真,综合探究政府、公众、企业在绿色技术创新中的行为策略选择和系统演化轨迹。研究发现：(1)两方演化博弈模型下,企业绿色技术创新行为与其成本收益密切相关,但有效的公众参与为企业在成本小于收益情况下进行绿色技术创新行为提供了可能,即公众参与是企业改变短视行为、进行前瞻性创新的关键因素;(2)三方演化博弈模型下,政府和公众的稳态条件与单独考虑政府和单独考虑公众的稳态条件相同;但企业的稳态条件则需考虑公众举报对企业声誉带来的影响,其是企业进行绿色技术创新行为决策的重要参考因素;(3)情景模拟仿真结果表明,随着环保宣传、技术创新激励、环境管制、公众关注、公众举报强度的增加,企业绿色技术创新行为的演化速度不断加快,即不同类型的政府行为与公众参与均会对绿色技术创新有显著促进作用。总结而言,在政府行为外生引导的基础上,应着重激发公众参与的重要调节效应,从而以企业利润为抓手引导绿色技术创新行为进入内生演化路径。     

Get real: what will draw physicians to the Web?

What are physicians waiting for? What will it take to stimulate widespread adoption of Internet medical systems? How can health care leaders and physicians help the technology innovators and the executives of technology firms understand the components necessary to assure physician acceptance and utilization of new tools? (1) Don't underestimate the personal nature of a physician's practice. It really isn't a "business." (2) Most physicians are not Luddites; they are just extremely pragmatic and practical. (3) For the majority of physicians to adopt a new technology in their private office practice, it must address three major issues: money, hassle, and patient care. There are many obstacles to adopting the new technologies that are the result of physician training and expectations and the current models of payment and revenue generation. Some technological innovations are presented to physicians without sufficient respect for their knowledge of how medical practices really work. The benefits promised often don't match with the needs structure of the physicians. As a consequence, the cycle of diffusion of these new systems is extended and delayed.     

“双随机、一公开”产品质量监管模型研究

在市场监管领域全面推行“双随机、一公开”监管，是党中央、国务院作出的重大决策部署，是市场监管理念和方式的重大创新。本文首次构建“双随机、一公开”产品质量监管的理论模型，理清“双随机”与“一公开”及各参与主体之间的作用关系，分析市场主体名录库和执法检查人员名录库中抽查企业与检查人员的群体行为演化机理，得出针对“双随机、一公开”监管的激励机制。研究发现：通过“双随机”抽取检查人员和抽查企业并“公开”产品质量信息，需配以恰当的激励机制才能有效制约抽检企业的假冒伪劣行为和检查人员的无效抽检行为；当公开声誉较高时，对检查人员实施质检激励或对抽查企业实施质量激励均可以使得系统良性演化，但如果公开声誉较低，需同时对检查人员和抽查企业实施质检与质量双重激励；质检激励机制设计时需对标准质量和假冒伪劣对应的检查人员分别给予质检激励，质量激励机制设计时需对有效抽检和无效抽检对应的抽查企业分别给予质量激励；质检激励和质量激励下系统稳定点的演化轨迹存在很大差异，质检激励先使得检查人员演化到有效抽检，然后通过公开声誉带动抽查企业演化到标准质量，而质量激励先使抽查企业演化到标准质量，然后通过公开声誉带动检查人员演化到有效抽检，如果公开声誉较低，这种传动机制会被阻断导致系统不会演化到理想状态。最后本文为完善和创新“双随机、一公开”监管提出了针对性的政策建议。     

Policies to Attract R&D-related FDI in Small Emerging Countries: Aligning Incentives With Local Linkages and Absorptive Capacities in Chile

Over the last decade we have witnessed an unprecedented growth in the number of cross-border R&D investments towards large emerging countries such as China and India. However, small middle-income countries have played a marginal role as recipients of R&D-related FDI despite increasing policy efforts. In particular, several Latin American countries have recently launched new policy programs with the aim of attracting this kind of investments, but it remains uncertain whether public incentives can be useful to compensate for other locational disadvantages. The case of Chile provides an interesting empirical setting to explore these issues because during the last decade its government has been actively promoting R&D-related FDI through a new policy mix. This article suggests that for national innovation systems to benefit from the attraction of internationally-mobile R&D it is critical for public policies to ensure that appropriate linkages are established with local actors that hold absorptive capacities. Equally important for a small emerging economy like Chile is to prioritize R&D-related FDI in strategic technology niches where the country can realistically attain critical mass.     

Additive manufacturing technology adoption: an empirical analysis of general and supply chain-related determinants

Despite experiencing immense growth in the past decade, additive manufacturing (AM) technologies—colloquially known as 3D-printing—are still rarely used in industrial fabrication. Being at the interface between technology, innovation, behavioral science and operations management research, this paper identifies multifaceted factors that determine the decision to adopt AM technologies for the production of industrial parts. A review of the relevant literature revealed eight potential factors. These can be classified into four interdisciplinary categories: technology-related factors, firm-related-factors, market structure-related factors, and supply chain-related factors. Special focus is placed on the impact of supply chain-related issues, because there are indicatives that these aspects have an influence on the decision to adopt AM technologies since AM may offer distinct opportunities for both, the supply- and demand-side of a firm’s operations. No work in the field of manufacturing technology adoption has examined the role of such inter-organizational factors before. The results of an empirical study among 195 firms indicate that demand-side benefits and compatibility are the main determinants of AM technology adoption. This suggests that not only intra- but also inter-organizational factors should be considered when investigating the adoption of technological innovations. Furthermore, it is carved out that the adoption of AM technologies has an interdisciplinary nature.     

Marketing Strategies and Market Prospects for Environmentally-Friendly Consumer Products1

Recent evidence suggests that the extent of consumer adoption of ‘green’ products is much less than would be indicated by the enthusiastic opinion poll evidence concerning public attitudes towards environmentally-friendly consumption. This paper reports on an empirical analysis of firms' marketing strategies and their influence on consumer demand for green products. In twenty 2–3 hour interviews with senior managers, four representative groups of markets were analysed household detergents, paper (recycled), petrol (unleaded) and automobile technology (focusing on catalytic converters). According to managers, firms' marketing strategies influenced consumer demand by making green technologies available in the fwst instance. However, barriers to supplying green products that show panty with, or better performance than, conventional technologies constrain pricing and communication efforts Managers stressed that, in the absence of clarity of green products' environmental benefits, product performance and other attributes, not green benefits, remain the main determinants of product preference and choice. Promotions focused much more on consumers than distribution channels, yet channel acceptance and support of green innovations are paramount in facilitating sales. Firms see the costs of generating and promoting desirable green technologies as barriers to diffusion in the immediate future. Legislation and/or economic incentives may help, but manufacturers are not optimistic that future green consumption rates will accelerate. The results also highlight several propositions concerning the discrepancy between consumer environmental concerns and purchasing actions which warrant further testing: there is mis-specification of green products in relation to consumers'needs; there are barriers to perceptions of green products' environmental impact and consumers' free ride due to individual self-interest.