女性受教育程度与婚配模式对二孩生育意愿的影响

在人口转变过程中,女性受教育程度的提升往往被认为是促进生育率下降的因素之一,但是在后人口转变时期,许多针对发达国家的研究发现女性的受教育程度与生育水平呈现正相关的关系。本文使用2010年、2012年和2013年中国综合社会调查数据,分析和比较中国女性的二孩生育意愿在不同受教育程度和不同教育婚配模式下的差异。结果显示在不考虑政策限制的情况下,受教育程度较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高,即便考虑了女性的收入水平后这一关系依然显著。研究发现在考虑夫妇的相对特征后,相比受教育程度均为初中的夫妇,夫妇受教育程度均较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高。文章使用生育的性别公平理论对生育意愿在女性受教育程度及婚配模式上的这一U型变化模式进行解释。生育行为不仅与经济水平或夫妻间的相对经济实力相关,还会受到性别观念的影响,更加平等的性别观念与性别关系有利于促进生育意愿的提升。政府应推广具有普惠性质的托育支持体系,促进女性就业和性别平等,使生育率维持在稳定水平。     

20世纪90年代我国丧偶人口状况分析

本文利用“四普”和“五普”资料,对我国20世纪90年代丧偶人口这一特殊群体进行分析。发现我国丧偶人口在年龄上出现一定程度的“老化”,在性别上呈现男性化的倾向。城乡丧偶率在不断扩大,农村丧偶老人较城市丧偶老人而言有更大的增长。女性丧偶人口的整体文化程度仍然低于男性,随着受教育水平的升高,女性和男性丧偶人口的差别越来越大,越来越多的女性丧偶人口处于文盲半文盲状态。不同职业的丧偶率差异较大,就业层次越低,丧偶率越高。随着社会的发展,不同职业人口的丧偶率差距渐渐缩小。不同年龄的丧偶人口在家庭规模分布上差异较大,丧偶人口居住的家庭在不断小型化。     

青年女性生育意愿与行为偏离的区域差异——基于文化和社会经济视角的发现

文章利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,基于经济学和人口学的理论,从数量和性别两个维度分析青年女性生育意愿与行为偏离的地域差异及其影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）数量维度的偏离以青年女性的生育意愿高于生育行为为主要表现形式,理想子女数比实际子女数平均高0.4～0.5个,性别维度的偏离主要表现为近六成的青年女性现有子女性别结构未满足理想子女性别结构,生育意愿与行为偏离呈现出明显的地域差异;（2）区域的“经济—文化”类型对生育意愿与行为偏离有显著影响,高人均GDP—强生育文化区域的青年女性生育数量与性别偏离的可能性相对更高;（3）生育意愿与行为偏离的影响因素存在区域异质性,城乡类型、流动状态、年龄、婚姻状况、婚姻持续时长、民族、受教育程度、工作类型和收入水平等因素对生育意愿与行为偏离的影响在不同的“经济—文化”区域存在差异。文章认为,完善生育支持政策应综合考虑地域文化和社会经济发展水平的异质性,力求实现“经济—文化”同向驱动和不同类型地区协同联动,推进人口的长期均衡高质量发展。     

1990-2010年广州青年人口增长及其社会构成变动

本文采用人口普查数据分析了1990-2010年广州青年人口数量增长与受教育程度、婚姻状况和职业构成变动特征.广州青年人口绝对规模扩大、增速下降和相对规模收缩.人口迁移流动是青年人口增长变化的最主要因素.青年人口的受教育程度构成由中低层次向中高层次转变,未婚为主、已婚有配偶居次的婚姻构成更趋向未婚状况,职业以体力劳动者为主、正逐步向高级化转变.这些社会构成存在性别和年龄差异.     

中国城镇地区职业性别隔离水平的趋势分析

在劳动力市场中职业性别隔离水平是衡量男女平等的重要指标之一。本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查数据,分别从总体隔离、水平隔离与垂直隔离、性别类型职业等几个方面对中国劳动力市场上的职业性别隔离水平的发展趋势和现状进行估计和分析,并进一步比较不同行业和地区职业性别隔离水平的差异。研究发现2000年以来中国城镇地区的职业性别隔离总体水平下降趋势明显。职业间的性别分布变化显著,表现为一方面女性不断向管理层、技术层的职业领域扩张。虽然男性仍在"单位负责人"和"专业技术人员"等具有高权威和高声望的职业中具有明显优势,但是女性在这些职业中的从业比例大幅上升。后者表明提高女性受教育程度仍是降低职业性别隔离水平的重要途径;另一方面从农副业人员中解放出的女性主要向商业服务业人员转移,而男性则主要向产业工人转移。这一变化可能是由性别的自然禀赋差异所导致的社会分工不同,而并非受劳动力市场歧视的影响。职业内的性别隔离程度普遍下降,虽然"男性职业"近1/3,"女性职业"几乎不存在,但是女性在各个职业种类中的分布比例基本上均有不同程度的提高。我国各个省份的职业性别隔离水平差异较大,中部地区最低,东部地区整体偏高,而西部地区的职业隔离水平则呈现出两极分化。     

民族间农民生育行为的比较研究--来自湖北省418户农户家庭的调查

文章通过对湖北省400多个农户点面调查分析发现,随着时代变迁,受教育程度的提高,农民的婚育行为发生着显著变化。主要表现为初婚年龄明显反弹,婚育间隔明显缩小,而生育间隔则受计划生育国策影响一度出现“人为”缩短痕迹。但在经过一段时间适应后,生育间隔再度回归“自然”。尽管在许多方面,民族间的婚育行为比较一致,但也存在不少差异。主要表现在苗族、土家族等少数民族女性初婚年龄要显著早于汉族,而平均婚育间隔与生育间隔则长于汉族。教育对农民的婚育行为有明显影响,主要表现为初婚年龄随受教育年限的增加而明显推后,生育数量的期望明显减少。     

1964～2005年我国人口受教育状况的变动——基于人口普查/抽查资料的分析

人口受教育状况通常被当作衡量某一国家或地区社会经济发展状况的重要指标。利用全国人口普查或抽查资料,运用趋势分析和队列分析方法,分析1964~2005年间我国人口受教育状况的变动情况;1982~2005年间分性别、分城乡人口受教育状况的变动情况;不同年代出生人口的受教育状况的变动情况。结果发现,我国人口平均受教育年限逐步提高,教育基尼系数逐渐降低,男女之间的教育差距逐步缩小,但城乡之间的差距继续扩大。每个队列人口平均受教育年限均有所提高,且各队列人口取得了不同方式和不同程度的"进步",其中既有年龄效应作用的结果,也有队列和时期效应作用的结果。     

利用人口普查资料测量小区域范围人群生育水平的方法

<正> 妇女生育水平是决定人口再生产过程的主要因素,是人口学和计划生育工作研究的重要内容。影响妇女生育状况的因素比较复杂,归纳起来大致可以分为两类:一类是人口构成因素,如总人口规模、育龄妇女占总人口的比例、育龄妇女的年龄构成,等等;另一类是社会因素,如生育政策、文化水平、经济条件、居住地点、职业分布、民族和宗教信仰,等等。人口构成因素是决定妇女生育状况的基础,社会因素则是影响生育状况的     

努力开发与利用第四次人口普查资料为计划生育工作服务

<正> 我国第四次人口普查工作获得了巨大的成功,这次人口普查获得的资料就如一座宝库,努力开发与利用这些资料,对于认识我国人口现状,研究我国人口发展规律、了解计划生育状况和促进社会主义现代化建设具有十分重要的意义。从普查项目来看,其普查内容可分为四大类: 一类是人口的自然状况,包括人口的性别、年龄,与户主关系、生育与死亡状况。二类是人口的社会状况,包括民族、户口状况、文化程度和婚姻状况。三类是人口的经济状况,包括在业人口的行业和职业构成、不在业人口状况。四类是人口迁移状况,包括1989年常住地状况和迁移原因。     

2005年1%人口抽样调查对综合治理出生性别比工作的启示

文章根据2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,分析了当前我国出生人口性别比的走势和特征;从分户口类型、分户籍所在地、分妇女生育孩次、分妇女生育年龄、分妇女受教育程度等方面进行比较研究,找出出生性别比升高的重点人群;通过分因素贡献率来确定各省(区、市)、分城镇乡、分孩次对全国出生性别比升高的作用程度;指出关爱女孩行动是综合治理工作的有效载体;并为有效解决出生性别比偏高问题提出新的工作建议.     

Fertility of the Yi women in Liangshan]

An attempt is made to determine the causes for the high fertility rate of the Yi women in Liangshan, China. The Yi are one of China's 54 ethnic groups, the largest group of which are the Hans (making up 95% of China's population). The area surveyed was Liangshan Yi County, having a population of 1.4 million. The survey included Yi women between the ages of 13-29 and compared them on the basis of previously gathered fertility statistics dealing with 1st and 2nd marriages and changes in household arrangements. According to a 1980 report, 16.37% of 36,302 infants of Yi women were the 1st child, 20.33% were the 2nd, 19.05% were the 3rd, 16.55% were the 4th, and 27.36% were the 5th child. These figures show that the Yi women's fertility is still extremely high (and has been for the last 15 years). Their fertility rate is 3.03 times higher than that of the Han women and 1.5 times higher than the national average for women. Possible causes for this rate may be early marriage (the average age for marriage being 19), divorce, and remarriage, and changes in household arrangements (where married women cohabit with men other than their husbands). These findings indicate a great need for family planning in order to prevent further adverse effects on economic growth, living standards, and public health (e.g., malnutrition has been found among some babies).     

A population survey of the Yi nationality in Meigu County, Sichuan Province]

In 1980, 95.35% of the 129,819 inhabitants of Meigu County in Faxin District of the Jinshan Yi autonomous district, Sichuan Province, were of Yi nationality. Agriculture is the primary mode of production and animal husbandry is an important secondary industry. Prior to Liberation, slavery was an integral part of Yi society. The standard of living was low, mortality high, and population growth slow. After Liberation from 1956-1980, the population grew 47.1%, 90% of which was a natural increase. The primary reason for the growth was a post-1960s annual average birth rate of 46/1000 and a mortality rate that fell from 35/1000 before Liberation to 13.3/1000 in 1976. The age structure also became younger. The average age in 1964 was 24 years, with a median age of 21.8 years, as compared to a 1980 average age of 23.8 years and a median age of 17 years. 47.2% of the population were aged from birth to 14 years; 2.9% were over 65 years. At the same time, 28% of the female population were of childbearing age. By 2000 Meigu County's population will reach 259,000. Although the primary reasons for the relatively rapid population increase are due to the destruction of the slave system and a higher standard of living, factors peculiar to Yi society are also significant: 1) the destruction of the slave system permitted the population to grow without the restraints of strict codes of class stratification; 2) the high value placed on having many offsprings, and of favoring male children still prevails; 3) the attitude of early marriage and the custom of widows marrying a relative of her deceased husband still prevail; 4) and infant mortality and the mortality rate of fertile women have declined. Elements which influence the population development of Meigu County include economic factors such as the need to support the old and the young, or the inability to produce enough food to keep up with the needs of an expanding population.     

On problems of population in minority nationalities (author's transl)]

China's large population is made up mostly of Han people, but there are more than 50 other ethnic groups. Population policies must be made taking into consideration the different historical and economic characteristics of each group. An example of the ill effects of high population growth is the Lin Xia autonomous state, inhabitated by the Hui ethnic group. In 1956 living conditions and food supply were still good for a population of 839,000. By 1978 the population had increased to 1,370,000, per capita income had dropped from 80 yuans to 40 yuans, and gross agricultural product could not meet the needed food supply. Although the number of schools had increased, by 1978 32% of elementary school children, 10% of elementary school graduates, and 60% of junior high school graduates were unable to enter school for lack of facilities. The standard of education decreased, and unemployment increased. In 1973 the birth control program was initiated in the province. Natural increase went from 28.7% in 1973 to 14.7%, and the total birth rate was 58,232 births less than expected; result was an increased school budget and better food and clothing for all. The opposite problem is presented by the Akesa autonomous state of Hasake ethnicity. In 1949 the population of this ethnicity was 1700 people and the standard of living was high; however, natural population increase was only 1.5/1000, not enough to provide needed labor to cope with economical development. In this area population increase should be encouraged through various means of health care. As for other minorities living in areas mainly inhabited by other ethnic groups, they should keep their customs and beliefs but follow the population policies of the majority of the people. Birth control is a communist idea; it serves to improve the health and welfare of the whole nation, and it will not interfere with the stable unity of the various ethnicities.     

中国劳动人口就业形势的差异分析

近年来,中国进入劳动年龄的人口增量巨大,就业人员迅速增长,占总人口的比重达到了迄今为止的最高点。在劳动就业领域不少长期存在的问题远未得到根本性的改善,如就业压力沉重,劳动者科学文化素质不高,全国统一的劳动市场尚有待完善,地区差异悬殊等,均构成了中国将长期面临的严峻挑战。此外,不同人群和不同地区之间,劳动人口的在业率和行业构成也存在着明显的差异。     

Population development and changes of China's minority nationalities]

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a nation composed of many ethnic groups. After the Communist victory of 1947, the government announced that there were 55 minority nationalities. The 1982 census provides demographic statistics concerning the position of those minorities within the population of the PRC. Since 1964, minority population has increased more rapidly than the population of the Han majority. Between 1953 and 1982, China's population increased 73.2%. The Han population increased 71.2%, the minorities, 90.4%. According to the 1982 census, the total fertility rate of the village-dwelling minorities in 1981 was 5.1%, while the fertility rate of the majority was 2.7%. The mortality rate of the various minorities decreased to the level of that of the Han. Consequently, the percentage of minorities in the total population also increased, from 5.8% of the total population in 1964 to 6.7% in 1982. The reasons for this increase include the following: the change in population reproduction brought about by democratic and socialist reform; the identification of minorities; improvement in health and medical facilities; the reinstatement of and change in racial minority policy promulgated in 1978; and intermarriage between minorities and Han Chinese. Although the minorities account for only 6.7% of China's total population, their distribution constitutes 62.5% of the nation's total area. In the past, the minorities have scattered to the various parts of the country and mingled with other ethnic groups. The high density of minorities is concentrated in the plains where the climate is mild and agricultural produce, such as wheat, rice, and corn, are cultivated. The lowest density areas with respect to the minorities are the inland highlands, deserts, and cold pastoral areas. The age structure of the minorities is young; the marriageable population is numerous; and the fertility rate is high. The educational standard of the minorities has been greatly enhanced, but is still lower than that of the Han Chinese.     

1990年以来中国各民族人口教育发展研究——来自人口普查和人口抽样调查数据的分析

运用人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,研究1990年以来各民族人口教育发展状况,考察7～16岁儿童在校率的影响因素。在实证分析的基础上,针对如何促进少数民族人口的教育发展提出政策建议。研究发现,在过去几十年中,少数民族与汉族人口的教育都取得了长足发展。少数民族人口中,未受过初中教育的人口比例高于汉族。不论对少数民族还是汉族,与城镇地区相比,乡村地区初中教育的缺失更加严重。在城镇地区,少数民族与汉族7～16岁儿童在校率相差很少,但在乡村地区仍然存在一些差距。在考虑了地区影响因素后,少数民族与汉族儿童的在校概率差异或者缩小,或者消失,只有满族除外。     

甘肃省大学生就业与人口问题探析

大学生就业与人口问题是举国上下关注的大事要事,甘肃省是西部欠发达省份,随着就业形势的日趋严峻还将成为今后我们所要面临的重要问题。人口素质的提升与就业反映出人口增长与提高人口素质必须和谐统一。这需要政府强力的政策引导、企业配合、机制完善。从调研来看,甘肃省人口素质在不同年龄段存在明显差异。大学生就业中存在性别歧视及用工不平等现象;性别比失衡的突出问题;大学教育所设专业课程与经济发展、社会进步严重不协调。大学教育还不能适应指导大学生就业的形势。     

西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局及其成因探讨

在数字化西汉地图的基础上,结合西汉人口数据,运用GIS软件完成西汉时期人口密度分布和分级图。得出西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局是人口多集中于黄河中下游地区,南方人口较稀少的结论。并在此基础上对其成因进行探讨,西汉时期人口分布的空间格局是在自然因素、政治因素和历史因素的共同作用下形成的。     

少数民族人口流动原因差异的民族因素影响分析

少数民族与汉族人口流动原因存在差异,利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,检验民族因素对这一差异是否产生影响。依据是否为少数民族和是否来自民族自治地方两个维度的民族因素将流动人口划分为四类,选取来自民族自治地方的少数民族和汉族流动人口、来自非民族自治地方的汉族流动人口作比较,作为自变量,人口流动原因为因变量。Logistic回归结果显著,民族因素对少数民族和汉族人口流动原因差异的影响是存在的。     

就业、就业形势与就业对策——人口学视角的思考

本文从人口学角度入手分析我国就业问题,认为就业的内涵需要拓展;从人口发展形势分析,就业形势极其严峻,就业问题难以得到根本解决;人口学角度出发的缓解就业的对策包括普及高中阶段教育和实行城市妇女（部分人口）阶段性就业,并认为阶段性就业与社会性别平等并无冲突,而是对其有益的补充。