Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.     

American fertility in transition: New estimates of birth rates in the United States, 1900–1910

This article presents new estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the entire United States for the period 1900-1910. The estimation techniques are the two-census parity increment method and the own-children method. The data sources are the 1900 census public use sample and tabulations of 1910 census fertility data published with the 1940 census. Estimates are made for the total population, whites, native-born whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Low age-specific marital fertility at younger ages is consistent with a view of a distinctive American fertility pattern at this time.     

The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century

This paper seeks to extend our knowledge about mortality in the late nineteenth century United States by using census mortality data for older children and teenagers to fit model tables. The same method can also be used with partially underregistered death data. The most commonly used model tables, the Coale and Demeny West Model, apparently do not adequately depict the changing shape of mortality over the period 1850--1910. An alternative model life table system is presented, based on the Brass two parameter logit system and available reliable life tables from the period 1850--1910. The two parameter system must be reduced to a one parameter system by means of estimated relationships between the parameters so that the fitting procedure can be used. The resulting model system is, however, heavily dependent on the experience of northern, industrial states, especially Massachusetts.     

United States population estimates and components of change: 1970 to 1987

This report analyzes year-to-year change in the US population from 1970 to 1987, including natural increase and net civilian immigration. Data are drawn from Current Population Reports. 1) The January 1, 1988 total population including Armed Forces overseas was over 245 million. This reflects a .9% increase over January 1, 1987, and an increase of 18 million since the April 1, 1980 census. 2) In the beginning of 1988, Whites numbered 206,979 million, Blacks 30,083, and Blacks and other races 38,130. 3) The crude birth rate dipped from 15.9 in 1980 to 15.6 in 1987; there is no evidence of a consistent trend since 1980. 4) The 3.8 million births in 1987 reflect a continuation of the gradual increase births that has been occurring since the mid-1970s, an increase attributed to Baby Boomers. 5) There was an 8.7/1000 death rate in 1987. This rate has fluctuated in the 8.5-8.7/1000 range since 1977 after declining from 9.4/1000 in 1972. The 2.1 million deaths in 1987 continue the gradual increase that has occurred since the end of the 1940s. This increase is attributed to the growth in population and to the population's continued aging. 6) Net immigrants/1000 population dropped slightly to 2.5 in 1987, down from 2.7 in 1986 and 3.7 in 1980. 7) Rates of growth for both Blacks and Whites have declined substantially since 1960; Blacks declined by about 1/3 (from 2.2%) and Whites by more than 1/2 (from 1.5%). The population of other races increased by 4.5% in 1987. The Black population grew by 1.5% in 1987, compared with a growth of .7% for the White population.     

Variation in life expectancy during the twentieth century in The United States

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports life expectancy at birth (LE) for each year in the United States. Censal year estimates of LE use complete life tables. From 1900 through 1947, LEs for intercensal years were interpolated from decennial life tables and annual crude death rates. Since 1948, estimates have been computed from annual life tables. A substantial drop in variation in LE occurred in the 1940s. To evaluate these methods and examine variation without artifacts of different methods, we estimated a consistent series of both annual abridged life tables and LEs from official NCHS age-specific death rates and also LEs using the interpolation method for 1900-1998. Interpolated LEs are several times as variable as life table estimates, about 2 times as variable before 1940 and about 6.5 times as variable after 1950. Estimates of LE from annual life tables are better measures than those based on the mixed methods detailed in NCHS reports. Estimates from life tables show that the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on LE was much smaller than indicated by official statistics. We conclude that NCHS should report official estimates of intercensal LE for 1900-1948 computed from life tables in place of the existing LEs that were computed by interpolation.     

Forecasts of population in the United States

In this paper the author discusses the work of the Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which is concerned with forecasting populations. He traces the development of these activities and considers some of the actual forecasts that have been made.     

Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates- a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net census undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.     

Regional-sub-cultural explanations of black fertility in the United States

Summary This paper re-examines the relevance of the hypothesis concerning the Southern sub-culture and black fertility in the United States. According to zero-order correlation analysis, Southern-born blacks show higher fertility than those born in other regions. But a dummy-variable regression technique applied to the data from the 1970 public-use sample indicates that the Southern origin - independent of other factors-is not different from other regions. Southern birth has the effect of increasing black fertility, but much less so than birth in the North Central region. Southern blacks show higher fertility because of their lower socio-economic background. It is concluded that geographical regions in the United States have little or no cultural meaning in explaining reproductive behaviour.     

Ageing in the United States at the end of the century

"The belief that America is a ?young' nation is widely held by many individuals in the United States. Historically, individualism, self-reliance, and an orientation towards youth have been cherished values reflecting...our national heritage and tradition dating from the 18th through the mid-20th century. However, America is no longer a ?young' nation. Rather, we are an ?aging' population, as we show in our analysis of demographic transitions reviewed in this paper. The phenomenon of ?cultural (or structural) lag' is discussed in two different contexts: first--the context of the aging family; and second--the context of ethnic/racial minority groups. Finally, some of the relevant public policy responses to aging are described. We look at government programs in four major categories, namely, (1) income; (2) health care; (3) social services; and (4) housing."     

Optimal estimate of population age structure with varying vital rates

The author presents a method for estimating the age distribution of a population under varying vital statistics. "Some mathematical aspects of the method, as well as its applicability, will be discussed and numerical simulation will be run to illustrate the results and to compare the method with the traditional estimate of stable population theory...."     

Zero growth of the population of the United States

It is sometimes said that there is no population problem in the United States because the U.S. fertility rate is approximately at the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However the population of the United States increased in 1992 by approximately three million people. There are two major causes of continued population growth even when fertility is approximately at the replacement level. One is population momentum; the other is immigration. This paper examines what must be done if we want to achieve zero growth of the population of the United States immediately, without the long delays caused by population momentum.     

Mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century: from the state to the cities

The aim of this paper is to explore mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century from a demographic perspective. During the nineteenth century, there was excess urban mortality in various countries; in order to identify such mortality differentials, we compared mortality indicators for the province of Quebec and then for the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City. Using data from various studies, we produced life tables and compared life expectancies. We show that at different times during the nineteenth century, spatial variations in mortality levels across the province of Quebec and its urban areas were significant. According to the data we analyzed, mortality is undoubtedly higher in urban areas even though a convergence in trends took place towards the end of the century, resulting in an overall reduction in mortality. Also, exploring life expectancies within a cohort approach at times of fast-changing mortality patterns has proved to be instructive. Life expectancy estimates based on a cross-sectional approach were systematically lower than those resulting from a cohort-specific one. Trends diverged to a greater extent beginning with the 1870 cohort, reflecting the improvements made from that point on to World War II. Since current mortality levels are substantially determined by the cumulative effects of past behaviour specific to each generation, it is quite obvious that mortality analysis will reveal its true meaning only with the help of cohort life tables.     

Vital statistics in the United States: preparing for the next century

"This paper outlines the development of U.S. national vital statistics based on the local registration of vital events in the United States during the twentieth century, including the organization of the National Vital Statistics System. Current data developments and selected publications of the National Center for Health Statistics are presented as they relate to vital statistics. The paper concludes with an overview of ongoing efforts at the local, state, and federal levels to improve the timeliness and quality of vital statistics through the redesign and automation of data collection, processing, and dissemination systems."     

Birth spacing and fertility limitation: a behavioral analysis of a nineteenth century frontier population

Our analysis of changing birth interval distributions over the course of a fertility transition from natural to controlled fertility has examined three closely related propositions. First, within both natural fertility populations (identified at the aggregate level) and cohorts following the onset of fertility limitation, we hypothesized that substantial groups of women with long birth intervals across the individually specified childbearing careers could be identified. That is, even during periods when fertility behavior at the aggregate level is consistent with a natural fertility regime, birth intervals at all parities are inversely related to completed family size. Our tabular analysis enables us to conclude that birth spacing patterns are parity dependent; there is stability in CEB-parity specific mean and birth interval variance over the entire transition. Our evidence does not suggest that the early group of women limiting and spacing births was marked by infecundity. Secondly, the transition appears to be associated with an increasingly larger proportion of women shifting to the same spacing schedules associated with smaller families in earlier cohorts. Thirdly, variations in birth spacing by age of marriage indicate that changes in birth intervals over time are at least indirectly associated with age of marriage, indicating an additional compositional effect. The evidence we have presented on spacing behavior does not negate the argument that parity-dependent stopping behavior was a powerful factor in the fertility transition. Our data also provide evidence of attempts to truncate childbearing. Specifically, the smaller the completed family size, the longer the ultimate birth interval; and ultimate birth intervals increase across cohorts controlling CEB and parity. But spacing appears to represent an additional strategy of fertility limitation. Thus, it may be necessary to distinguish spacing and stopping behavior if one wishes to clarify behavioral patterns within a population (Edlefsen, 1981; Friedlander et al., 1980; Rodriguez and Hobcraft, 1980). Because fertility transition theories imply increased attempts to limit family sizes, it is important to examine differential behavior within subgroups achieving different family sizes. It is this level of analysis which we have attempted to achieve in utilizing parity-specific birth intervals controlled by children ever born.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Demographic implications of the New United States certificates

To assist in developing uniform reporting of vital events among the fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, the United States government prepares standard certificates of birth, fetal death, death, marriage, and divorce. These model forms are revised, with the assistance of the states, approximately every ten years. Revisions are now being prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics which will become effective beginning January 1, 1968. Important new source material for demography will be introduced.Most changes will appear in the Standard Certificate of Live Birth and in the Standard Certificate of Fetal Death. An item on education of father and mother will provide detailed national data on education and fertility. The date of the last live birth to the mother and the date of the last fetal death will provide information on previous pregnancy outcome and on child-spacing. The recording of state file numbers for mates born alive and dead in the same delivery will make it easier to match live birth and fetal death certificates for the preparation of detailed tabulations on multiple births. Several new items related to maternal and child health have also been added. No significent changes were planned for the Standard Certificate of Death.The Standard Certificate of Marriage will include as new items the education of the bride and groom, the date on which the last marriage, if any, ended, and specification of the officiant as a religious or civil official. The Standard Certificate of Divorce or Annulment will obtain information on the education of husband and wife, the approximate date on which the couple separated, the mode of dissolution of the previous marriage, and the total number of living children. It is anticipated that most of the new items will be included in the certificates of all the states. The National Center for Health Statistics will provide detailed tabulations related to these items, beginning with data year 1968.Demographers are making an increased use of vital records and at the same time are extending their contacts with state health departments; in some states collaborative projects have been undertaken. Because of the importance of the source documents, which in some cases have not been exploited fully, demographers should increase their contact with the state vital statistics offices which develop, collect, and process the records. By indicating an interest in vital registration and by making their research needs known, demographers can encourage the acceptance of new concepts and collaborate in the improvement of vital records for demographic research purposes.     

Language usage and fertility in the Mexican-origin population of the United States

This article examines the effects of English proficiency and female education on cumulative and recent fertility within the Mexican-origin population in the U.S. To ascertain whether the cultural or the human capital aspects of linguistic variables have the greater salience for fertility behavior, fertility patterns of bilingual women are compared with those of monolingual women speaking English or Spanish. Using the 1980 U.S. Census 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample for ever-married Mexican-origin women aged 15-44, we find that for almost all age cohorts, the effects of English proficiency are negative and increase with rising education. The strength of the interaction is greater in younger age groups. Greater English proficiency is also associated with a more negative impact of education for native- than foreign-born women. Overall, the influence of "opportunity cost," as opposed to cultural factors, is more important in shaping the fertility behavior of these women.     

Major studies on population authorized by United States Congress

The Office of Technology Assessment, acting on a request from the U.S. Congress, will undertake 2 major population studies in the near future. The goal of the studies will be to facilitate U.S. policy formulation over the next couple of decades. The 1st study will attempt 1) to assess the impact of efforts make by national government to alter birth rates between 1960-1980; 2) to predict the effects of population growth utilizing different assumptions concerning family planning; 3) to identify the types of population issues which will emerge in the period 1980-2000; and 4) identify research priorities aimed at clarifying these issues. The 2nd study will 1) investigate current contraceptive technology; 2) attempt to define a perfect contraceptive; and 3) examine the prospects of contraceptive technology between 1980-2000.