Restructuring of the US Meat Processing Industry and New Hispanic Migrant Destinations

Findings from the 2000 US Census indicate high rates of Hispanic population increase beyond urban areas and traditional immigrant‐receiving states. The diversity of new destinations raises questions about forces attracting migrants to rural areas and links between economic structural change and Hispanic population growth. Our conceptual framework applies dual labor market theory to the meat processing industry, a sector whose growing Hispanic labor force offers an illustrative case study for analyzing how labor demand influences demographic change. We document the industry's consolidation, concentration, increased demand for low‐skilled labor, and changing labor force composition over three decades. We then position meat processing within a broader analysis that models nonmetropolitan county Hispanic population growth between 1980 and 2000 as a function of changes in industrial sector employment share and nonmetro county economic and demographic indicators. We find that growth in meat processing employment exhibits the largest positive coefficient increase in nonmetro Hispanic population growth over two decades and the largest impact of all sectors by 2000.     

Social Backwardness in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This paper presents a methodology for estimating the index of social backwardness by urban blocks at Mexico City Metropolitan Area. The index, originally developed by the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy is a measure that seeks to establish differences between geographical areas located in the same region. The area of interest is inhabited by more than 20 million people assuming to be heterogeneous in their levels of quality of life. By closely following the official guidelines and by using the Population and Housing Census 2010, the obtained results are surprising. The urban block estimation suggests a 10.1 % of total population suffering from a high degree of social backwardness, contrary to the official measurements which sets it out around 0.3 %.     

产业疏解背景下北京市人口保有规模测算

根据《北京城市总体规划(2016—2035年)》,2020年北京常住人口规模应控制在2300万以内,以后长期稳定在这一水平。然而从目前的人口变化趋势来看,北京市人口规模很有可能会出现持续减少,保持稳定面临挑战。如何在保证疏解非首都功能的情况下维持城市应有活力和可持续发展,将成为亟待关注的问题。利用城市经济学理论与方法,通过对北京市城市基础部门和非基础部门的辨识及确定各部门间就业人口的合理比例关系,测算出北京市疏解非首都功能后所必须保留的最低人口规模即人口保有规模为1800万;北京市疏解非首都功能后的总就业人口规模约940万。由此得出的结论,希冀为北京市制定未来的人口政策提供理论支持和参考建议。     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

Nativity concentration and internal migration among the foreign-born

Are immigrants who live in states where large numbers of their compatriots reside more or less likely to migrate than those who live in other states? Using 1980 U.S. Census data to address that question, the analysis shows that nativity concentration deters interstate migration but not migration within the same state. Residing in a state where fellow nationals live is a more important determinant of internal migration than human capital, immigration status, or a state’s unemployment rate. New York State residence in 1975 also promotes interstate migration. This research suggests that social dimensions should be taken into account in modeling internal migration of the foreign-born.     

A consideration of the effect of immigration reform on the number of undocumented residents in the United States

The volume of immigration to the United States exceeds the amount of immigration to any other nation, but quantification must rely on measurement of population stocks. Comparison of foreign-born population figures for two or more survey dates reveal net immigration but fail to partition the foreign-born population by legal status. This analysis presents national survey data on the foreign-born population in November 1989 for comparison with an independently derived estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population at the same date. The demonstration of a measurable undocumented population residing in the United States is very helpful in evaluating the success of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Despite the legalization of 1.7 million aliens who provided evidence of undocumented residence since before 1982, and economic sanctions against employers found to hire undocumented workers, an undocumented population persists in the United States that appears to be largely composed of aliens from Latin American countries. Precise measurement of the size of this population is complicated by the uncertainties surrounding the population of approximately one million Special Agricultural Workers admitted under IRCA. The work and residence history of these aliens as well as their future labor sector experiences and residence patterns are not known. Despite efforts to stop undocumented immigration to the United States, undocumented migration, especially across the southern border, appears to have occurred at consistent levels throughout the past fifteen years.This paper reports the general results of research undertaken by Census Bureau staff. The views expressed are attributable to the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Census Bureau.     

The effects of density and urban residence on voter turnout

The rate of voting in cities of the U.S. tends to be lower than one would expect when compared to nationwide voter participation rates. The hypothesis in question here is whether high population density and urbanness have a dampening effect on the likelihood of voting by persons living under such conditions. This question is examined by relating county voting rates in recent U.S. Presidential elections to various types of county population density, while controlling for fifteen potentially contaminating variables. The hypothesis that population density reduces voter turnout cannot be rejected on the basis of the test. There is a small but significant negative relationship between the press of population — represented by the population per square mile and urbanness — and voter turnout, even when the various control variables are present. More immediate types of density, such as housing unit and room density, appear to be insignificant. Possible reasons for the results are discussed.     

Alternative Projections of the U.S. population

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.     

The rôle of density as a factor in metropolitan growth in the United States of America

U.S. Census data are used to show that, as the density of a metropolis increases there is a concomitant increase in the movement of population to the suburbs. This relationship is closest for small metropolitan areas. As size of the area increases, the closeness of the relationship decreases until it reverses—the largest areas actually show a slight decline in metropolitanization when density goes up. It is concluded that metropolitan expansion has definite bounds set by technological factors which place a limit on the distance that the commuter can reasonably travel daily.

For cities with populations of less than 500,000 there is a correlation of near zero between size of population and density. Such cities therefore maintain a constant density. But for cities with larger populations, size of population and density rise together.

It is concluded that small cities undergo metropolitan expansion with ease. Distances are within technological limits and any increase in population is reflected in an increase in area. But when a certain area is reached, further expansion is curtailed with a resultant increase in internal density. The net result is a stopping or slowing down of the metropolitan process.     

数字人口健康的探索与思考

一、北京市昌平区关于数字人口健康的探索 昌平区是北京市的城市发展新区,总人口约190万：昌平区人口计生委积极探索推进人口健康数字化建设,大致经历了两个阶段：     

Population growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States 1

Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the UnitedStates, up 13.2 percentfrom the 1990 Census population of 248.7 million and thehighest percent increasefor the nation since the 1960s. Population growth in the1990s was not only higherthan in recent decades, it was also more geographicallywidespread, with more states,counties, and cities experiencing population gains.This paper examines populationgrowth during the 1990s for a variety of geographiclevels, including regions, divisions,states, metropolitan areas, counties and large cities.It then compares growth rates forthe 1990s with earlier decades to provide a historicalcontext to present-day trends inpopulation growth and decline. Finally, it discusses howdifferential population growthin recent decades has resulted in a new form of populationdistribution in the US.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

我国流动人口生育问题研究概述

在我国经济社会的高速发展影响下,流动人口数量与日俱增。流动人口中的育龄人群也在我国整体育龄人群中占较大比例．因此其生育问题受到了广泛关注。当前学界对流动人口的生育问题主要围绕其生育意愿、生育水平、生育服务管理而展开,通过研究发现流动人口的生育状况由于其居住、工作等的特殊性而呈现出一些不同于城市常住人口和农村未流动人口等的特点。而要将研究进一步引向深入,扩展地域之维、丰富实地调研资料、探析数理关系是可尝试的分析路径。     

A comparison of internal migration by ethnic group in Great Britain using a district classification

This paper considers the ethnic dimension of changing usual residence using 1-year data from the 2001 Census, the only available comprehensive source of origin-destination flow data on Whites and non-white minority groups. The analysis identifies the variation in migration propensities at national level by ethnic group and by age and investigates spatial patterns of ethnic migration at local authority district scale using an area classification based on migration variables extracted from the 2001 Census.     

Residential Segregation in the Mid-Sixties

Special censuses conducted by the Bureau of the Census at the request and expense of local governments provide current statistics for many large cities which are compared with corresponding data from the1960 Census. An analysis was made of the changes in the racial composition of the cities, and of the areas within the cities (defined by census tracts) which had a high concentration of Negro population in 1960 for ten cities of 100,000 or more population at mid-decade.As in the 1950-60 period, Negroes continue to move into the central cities of metropolitan areas while white persons continue to move out to the suburbs at a faster rate, and this results in net declines in the populations of the cities. The proportion of nonwhite persons living in areas of high Negro concentration has remained about the same or increased slightly in a majority of the cities, while in a few (such as Cleveland, Rochester, and Raleigh) this proportion has declined; that is, relatively more Negroes in these cities now live outside the ghetto neighborhoods. When the racial composition of the ghettos is examined, however, a higher proportion of the residents are now Negro when compared to 1960 in each of the ten cities.Thus, the concentration of Negroes in ghetto areas has shown little change, but the trend of white persons moving away from the Negro neighborhoods, either to other parts of the cities or to the suburbs, has increased sharply, and this has tended to polarize the Negro and white populations within large cities.     

Updating Rurality Index for Small Areas in Spain

Nowadays, there is a wide debate about what rural means. An operational definition of rural concept is essential in order to measure health problems, optimize resource allocation and facilitate decision making aimed at closing the gap on inequity between areas. In 2005, the rurality index for Small Areas in Spain (IRAP) was developed using the 1991 Census of Population data. Nevertheless, the concept and definition of rurality may evolve through time. In order to capture these changes, the variables used to make up the rurality index should be reviewed and updated periodically. Along these lines, and within the context of the rural–urban continuum, the aim of this paper is to replicate and update the IRAP using the data provided by the 2001 Census of Population, as well as to describe the changes in rurality observed in each municipality between 1991 and 2001. The index was updated on a Principal Components Factor Analysis, giving rise to a single factor that is correlated to the aging of the population, economic dependency, farming, livestock or fishing-related employment, self-employment, second dwelling ratio, population density, immigration and perception of noises and atmospheric pollution in the surroundings of the residential area. Most variables that made up the 1991 IRAP remain as important components of the 2001 index, indicating the robust nature of the measure. Only 10% of the Spanish municipalities have changed their rurality status between the two Censuses. The 2001 rurality index can be considered a good updated approach to the concept of rurality in Spain as well as an important criterion to social policies.     

The uses and analysis of census data in the Philippines. Demographic note

The collection of census data on a given population is largely expensive for nations. Census do, however, help program planners and administrators understand prevailing economic and social conditions, as well as cultural characteristics within the country. Explaining the political, legislative, administrative, and research and academic uses of such data, specific application in the Philippines is presented. Where 1 representative is allowed per 250,000 population in the Philippine House of Representatives, data are necessarily employed politically to determine the total number of representatives to be elected from respective legislative districts. Politicians also use this data in the formulation of political strategy, while election registrars need it to validate the number of registered voters per precinct. Legislatively, census data are used at the national level to define and create administrative areas according to the number of inhabitants. National services and national revenues, as well as permits, are also allotted on the basis of area population size. Furthermore, a host of administrative demands in both the public and private sectors are met by these data, including planning, policy making, and managerial tasks. Academicians and researchers depend upon these data in demonstrating the impact of population growth on the environment, linking population studies to other disciplines, and examining social characteristics and population behavior. Steps taken in the planning of and preparation for the 1990 population and housing censuses are discussed.     

The demographic impact of Partition in the Punjab in 1947

We use data from the 1931, 1941, and 1951 censuses of India and the 1951 census of Pakistan to examine the demographic consequences of Partition in the Punjab in 1947. Had growth rates for the period 1931–41 for the Punjab as a whole continued to 1951, the population of the Punjab would have been 2.9 million larger than that recorded in 1951. Population losses from migration and mortality above age 20 were approximately 2.7 million greater between 1941 and 1951 than would have been predicted by loss rates between 1931 and 1941. We estimate a net Partition-related population movement out of the combined Punjab of about 400,000. We conclude from several lines of analysis that Partition-related population losses in the Punjab, either from deaths or unrecorded migration, were in the range 2.3–3.2 million. Partition was also marked by a dramatic religious homogenization at the district level.     

中国人口空间分布形态模拟与预测--基于“五普”和“六普”的分县尺度人口密度研究

人口空间分布不平衡是一个普遍现象,但其“是否有分布和统计规律”的研究议题非常鲜见。通过中国第五次和第六次人口普查的分县尺度数据模拟出中国分县尺度人口密度的概率分布函数,并进行概率分布预测,分析了未来中国人口分布统计特征。主要结论有：模拟显示,中国分县尺度人口密度符合对数正态分布形态;以2000年分县尺度数据的前向（未来）预测检验和2010年数据的后向（过去）预测检验发现,“人均产出”和“地均产出”两个条件能很好地模拟未来人口密度的分布规律;以2010年分县尺度为基础预测了2020－2100年的中国人口密度概率分布特征和趋势,结果显示中国人口分布极化特征将持续加大,例如2050年,无人区（小于1人／平方公里）的县域比例将从当前的1.02％（29个）增加到4.49％（128个）,超高密集区（大于30000人／平方公里）的区县比例将从0.11％（3个）增加到3.93％（112个）。     

The demographic impact of Partition in the Punjab in 1947

We use data from the 1931, 1941, and 1951 censuses of India and the 1951 census of Pakistan to examine the demographic consequences of Partition in the Punjab in 1947. Had growth rates for the period 1931-41 for the Punjab as a whole continued to 1951, the population of the Punjab would have been 2.9 million larger than that recorded in 1951. Population losses from migration and mortality above age 20 were approximately 2.7 million greater between 1941 and 1951 than would have been predicted by loss rates between 1931 and 1941. We estimate a net Partition-related population movement out of the combined Punjab of about 400,000. We conclude from several lines of analysis that Partition-related population losses in the Punjab, either from deaths or unrecorded migration, were in the range 2.3-3.2 million. Partition was also marked by a dramatic religious homogenization at the district level.