基于ODR-ADASYN-SVM的极端金融风险预警研究

针对合成少数类过采样(synthetic minority over-sampling technique,SMOTE)方法在提升支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)的非均衡样本学习能力中出现的过拟合(over fitting),引入自适应合成抽样方法(adaptive synthetic sampling approach,ADASYN)和逐级优化递减欠采样方法(optimization of decreasing reduction,ODR)分别克服SMOTE在生成新样本中的盲目性和在处理对象上的局限性,进而与SVM相结合,构造出改进SVM,即ODR-ADASYN-SVM模型来预测中国极端金融风险;最后运用T检验对各模型预测精度的差异性进行显著性检验以及对各模型的预测稳定性进行评价.实证结果表明,ODR-ADASYN-SVM模型不仅能够显著地提升SVM的非均衡样本学习能力,同时也能够有效地克服SMOTE的过拟合,从而展示出优越的极端金融风险预测性能.     

Assessing financial risks using a multicriteria sorting procedure: the case of country risk assessment

The assessment of financial risks is a problem of major interest for corporate entities (organizations, financial institutions, firms, etc.). The vulnerable economic and financial environments necessitate the development of operational approaches to measure and control financial risks. Most of the methodologies that have been proposed in the past employ a probabilistic notion of risk. This paper proposes an alternative approach to measure financial risks, considering their multidimensional nature. The proposed approach is based on the multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) method Multi-Group Hierarchical DIScrimination (M.H.DIS). The aim of the M.H.DIS method within the financial risk assessment context is to develop a set of additive utility functions that classify the considered alternatives (firms, investment projects, portfolios, countries, etc.) into predefined risk classes. The efficiency of the method is illustrated through a case study regarding the country risk assessment problem. Using the M.H.DIS method a discrimination model is developed that classifies the countries into four groups, and measures the corresponding creditworthiness and risk of the countries. Several validation tests are performed in order to compare the classification results obtained through M.H.DIS to the results obtained through multiple discriminant analysis.     

Appraising financial performance for financial institutions

The author is an investment analyst whose area of specialization is financial shares, especially in banking. The prime responsibility of the investment analyst is to the investment institutions. However, the information available to the analyst is no more than that available to shareholders in the institution being monitored. The expertise of the analyst is in seeking out the information and interpreting it for the client. There has been a considerable improvement in investor relations in the U.K. in the past few years. The author suggests that more information could be provided by the U.K. Clearing Banks—information which is readily available within the banks—which would enable the investment analyst to make important comparisons from data which is not at present available to him.     

销售费用处理管见

销售费用应按作业设置成本库进行明细核算,期末将销售费用作为商品销售成本转入主营业务成本账户,和已销产品生产成本一起结转本年利润。销售费用作为商品销售成本更能体现收入与费用配比原则,有利于企业利用增值作业和不增值作业信息做出科学决策,有利于企业利用准确的销售费用信息确定产品价格,有利于企业确定目标市场等经营战略和业绩考核。     

Understanding financial statements

In his premier column for The Physician Executive, David Tarantino takes a look at those critical "financials" that can make or break a business. If you're considering a career move, you need to know the financial condition of future employers. Learn how to read the statements and glean valuable information from the numbers.     

处理人际关系的两个法则

一、黄金法则 黄金法则出自基督教《圣经·新约》中的一段话:"你想人家怎样待你,你也要怎样待人."这是一条做人的法则,又称为"为人法则",几乎成了人类普遍遵循的生活原则.事实上,全世界许多大的宗教都有类似的为人法则.     

Computers and financial planning

This article discusses the principal application areas of models in the financial planning field together with the main reasons for adopting this approach. The various techniques available are compared with special emphasis on the now widespread ‘financial modelling systems’. Finally, an indication is given as to future developments.     

干部考察要处理好八个关系

干部考察是用人的关键环节.如何积极探索干部考察的新办法、新途径,使干部考察像X光机一样又快又准,从而为选好用好干部奠定了基础,笔者认为,需要处理好以下八个关系.     

Evaluating the risks in acquisition

This paper aims to illustrate the role of strategic risk analysis in the process of policy dialogue. An example of a new product diversification demonstrates the role of risk analysis in clarifying problem assumptions and in understanding the impact of uncertainty on decision-making. Risk analysis is seen as an adjunct and aid to problem formulation and resolution and not an end in itself.     

Handling uncertain decisions in whole process design

In recent years, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries have observed a noticeable decline in economic activity. This has resulted in many companies focusing on innovative research and development as they consider this key to business success. In particular, a number of leading industrial organisations have adopted the principles of Whole Process Design (WPD). WPD considers the optimisation of the entire product development process, from raw materials to end product, rather than focusing on each individual unit operation. The complexity involved with the implementation of WPD requires rationalised decision-making, often with limited or uncertain information. This paper presents the outcomes of two questionnaires that examined the requirements of professionals working within the chemistry-using industries with respect to developing a decision-making support tool. From the findings a methodology is proposed, the outcome of which allows a decision-maker to visually interpret their decision results with associated levels of uncertainty. A chemical route selection case study demonstrates and validates the application of the proposed methodology.     

发展县域经济要处理好六个关系

在当前各地竞相加快发展、全面建设小康社会的新的历史时期,欠发达地区要想实现超常规、跨越式发展,必须以“三个代表”重要思想为指针,全面贯彻落实十六届三中全会精神,提出新思路,出台新举措,实施新规划,开拓新境界。作为身处县域领导核心地位的县委书记,更应从战略的高度、全局的视角,不断创新执政理念,改进领导方式,调动一切积极因素,推动县域经济的快速协调全面发展。当前,要着重处理好六个关系。一、“管”与“放”的关系。党的十六届三中全会提出了完善社会主义市场经济体制的目标。实现这一目标,就必须扫除原有的体制性障碍,按市场…     

金融危机对金融机构的冲击及政府救助分析

使用基于非对称双指数分布的跳-扩散模型,以资产治理结构理论为框架对金融危机爆发前后以及危机中政府救助前后的债务平均到期时间、冲击到来频率以及违约资产损失率进行设定,从而对金融机构债务/资产比率在不同情况下的变化趋势进行数值模拟,以此分析金融危机对金融机构的冲击以及政府救助金融机构的效果.模拟分析结果发现,金融危机中金融机构的脆弱性主要来自债务/资产比率过高、中短期债务过多以及资产质量过低;政府对危机中金融机构的救助措施以低频大幅注资辅以购买短期债务和劣质资产最为有效.     

New competition in financial services

This article examines the effects of competition facing financial services institutions, from the strategic management and from organizational management viewpoint. Through analysis of a survey, the nature of the problems facing managers are highlighted. The article is intended as a case study of an industry under change, and the conclusions identify lessons to be learned from the experience.     

Productivity-based financial net income analysis

This paper develops the analytical framework for a productivity based financial analysis, which has been successfully introduced by the authors as standard reporting in a major corporation. This analysis is designed to broaden and supplement conventional income statement analysis. It partitions expense and revenue items into their respective price and quantity components and establishes the precise relationship between total factor productivity performance and key aspects of financial performance. The underlying theory is reviewed. Subsequently, an actual case study example is analyzed. Some of the major additional insights into factors affecting the economic health of a productive enterprise and their implications for corrective actions are illustrated and discussed.     

Industrial investment and financial requirements

The present period of slack investment is likely to give way to a fresh investment cycle in the next 5–10 years. Internationally the savings necessary for the provision of capital will be more abundant than ever. However, the structure of savings is changing in favour of risk-averting forms. This is true of savings of private house-holds which benefitting from rising incomes, are increasing in significance. The same applies to the provision of savings, if any, through official insurance schemes, which at least in Europe are found to invest virtually exclusively in fixed-interest securities. The agglomeration of capital in the oil-rich nations, which is also invested with a view to risk aversion, operate in the same direction. By contrast, the capability of firms to generate savings and hence risk-bearing funds is declining. This lack of risk capital threatens to create serious financial obstacles to growth. For risk-bearing corporate capital funds form the yardstick by which the banks, as intermediaries between savers and investors, assess their possibilities to assist enterprises through loans or bond issues. This situation gives rise to political and social problems which must be considered seriously in all long-term policy planning and forecasts.