The impact of a social systems scientist on a country

The process of evaluation of the impact of a social systems scientist (S³) on a country can be framed as a play (the impact of a person) within a play (the inquiry). Impact can be focused in terms of the social structure (stage), roles involved, change and the diffusion processes that characterize the development of the ‘plays’. Different meanings of the terms social systems science and country are given depending on the intentions, knowledge and context of the inquiry. A person is usually evaluated by first selecting a role through which he is viewed. Selection of the role is not a neutral decision. The main roles associated with S³ and Russell Ackoff were scientist, educator, consultant-adviser, planner-designer, social reformer, social philosopher, entertainer and preacher. A strong criterion for evaluation could be the degree of participation of a person in the development of a paradigm, ideal or myth and its nurturing institution.     

Ackoff's Fables revisited: stories to inform operational research practice

This paper considers Ackoff's Fables, a set of short stories published by Ackoff in 1978 as guides to creative problem solving. The paper argues that storytelling of this kind contributes usefully to management and MS/OR education, before addressing how such Fables might be interpreted. It is demonstrated, using one of Ackoff's Fables, The Smart Jackass, for illustrative purposes, that interpretation of even apparently straightforward stories such as these is not unambiguous. The Fables can be interpreted in a multitude of different and sometimes contradictory ways, and the truths they might contain are not self-evident. Yet, as the basis for discussion, they still have much to offer as educational tools. The paper concludes with a discussion of literal truth in stories, and presents a classification of story types according to their relationship to literal truth.     

DESIGN OF AN M.B.A. SEMINAR ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH/MANAGEMENT SCIENCE *

This paper reports on an innovative seminar in which implementation of operations research and management science was the primary theme. Traditional educational strategies have sought to improve OR/MS acceptance by further exposing managers and management scientists to OR/MS techniques and management problems respectively. The present approach assumes that an understanding of the barriers to successful implementation and a knowledge of possible strategies for overcoming them are potentially more productive than the study of more OR/MS techniques. The seminar was designed to combine straightforward reading and discussion with empirical research on actual implementation situations. It is suggested that educators consider the value of this type of educational exercise in OR/MS curricula and M.B.A. programs.     

Complex problems with multiple stakeholders: how to bridge the gap between reality and OR/MS?

The world becomes increasingly complex and problems tend to be broader and multidisciplinary. At the same time, OR/MS research seems to be narrowing down, building even more on analytical models. The flip side is the risk that OR/MS is increasingly diverging from reality and that its dominant paradigm becomes insufficient to guide us in understanding and solving complicated real-world problems. A methodology that allows a broader insight into exploring a complex system’s behaviour is urgently needed to guide OR/MS analytical models. We propose system dynamics as a methodology to link reality with the dominant OR/MS paradigm of narrowly focused and highly analytical models.     

Formulating the mess: The role of decision aids in problem formulation

Analytic decision aids have been criticized by some practitioners for their inability to address questions of problem formulation. These aids typically begin with the assumption that a problem has been recognized and stated, and that the task of the sequential step-wise analysis process is to indicate the optimal strategy in terms of a specified choice criterion. Writers such as Ackoff, Mason & Mitroff and Raiffa have argued that this approach may lead to solving the wrong problem, particularly when applied to ill-structured, complex organizational decision problems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more thorough understanding of the nature of problem formulation and the use of techniques for assisting decision-makers in this process. The paper attempts first to develop an understanding of the process of organizational problem formulation through the examination of current literature and research. This is seen to be a necessary prerequisite for discussing the value of decision aids for problem formulation. Second, attention is focused on aids to problem formulation. Included is discussion about the matching of problem to problem type, creativity stimulants, dialectical inquiry and devil's advocate approaches, as well as the role of formal analysis as a stimulant for a policy dialogue process. Finally, the relationships between the various approaches are examined and a synthetic model for their use in problem formulation is suggested.     

Soft OR comes of age—but not everywhere!

Over the last forty years, new methods and methodologies have been developed to deal with wicked problems or “messes”. They are structured and rigorous but non-mathematical. Prime examples are: soft systems methodology (SSM), cognitive mapping/SODA and the strategic choice approach (SCA). Collectively they are known as Soft OR, Soft Systems, or Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs). Soft OR has now come of age in terms of both dealing with complex practical situations and having a presence in the academic literature. However, Soft OR is not recognized, or even seen as a legitimate part of an OR, everywhere and this is especially so in the US, where top journals such as Operations Research and Management Science do not publish Soft OR papers. The purpose of this paper is to generate an informed discussion and debate, which may lead to a greater recognition of the contribution of Soft OR, and to it being seen to be a proper part of the OR discipline worldwide. In order to achieve this, the first section outlines the nature of Soft OR and describes briefly some of the main methods. The second section demonstrates that Soft OR has been successful both in practice and within the academic literature. The third section documents the invisibility of Soft OR within important sections of the OR literature, and the final section then suggests some explanations for this, and also proposes practical actions to try and alleviate the problem. It is not suggested that Soft OR is an alternative to traditional, mathematical OR but, rather, a complement.     

OR/MS methodology—A conceptual framework

Many authors deal, explicitly or implicitly, with OR/MS methodology and the term ‘methodology’ has gained such an inclusive connotation that it comes to denote nothing in particular. This has diluted the analytical precision of OR/MS ‘methodology’ as well as its practicability. Therefore an attempt to form a conceptual framework for OR/MS methodology will be presented. This framework consists of seven components addressing specific methodological aspects: each component has specific properties which distinguish it from the others; all of them together form a consistent hierarchy suitable to aid the successful development and implementation of OR/MS methods.     

Universal-deterministic and probabilistic hypotheses in operations management research: a discussion paper

Abstract

Based on Karl Popper’s approach to science, this conceptual article aims at promoting a discussion on important issues debated in the OM literature. Our focus is on the different types of hypotheses used in OM investigations and the implications of this for the formulation and testing of theory with an emphasis on case study research. Given that Popper’s methodology calls for an adequate testing of scientific propositions (universal-deterministic or probabilistic), we illustrate how case study research can be used to conduct a severe test of a scientific theory. It is also explained how case studies can be utilized to propose universal-deterministic hypotheses that should then be tested. Our investigation further discusses why it is important to clearly acknowledge the differences between the two types of hypotheses. Otherwise, inadequate research designs, deficient policy advice, and other similar problems, can arise. Topics for future research and discussion are also offered.     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

On operations research and value conflicts

The paper addresses the question of how operations research (OR) ought to handle decision problems that involve value conflicts. First, we note that early OR was considered essentially value free within the OR community, with a mechanistic systems perspective, although some voiced concern that an analyst should not detach herself from the consequences of her work. Then we propose a value conflict scale, which we use to assess the conflict levels in a small sample of OR applications. We then turn to value identification. In practise, organizational value statements include many kinds of values, and we discuss how values can be sorted out according to ethical categories, which helps in identifying consequentialistic decision criteria. The next question is how values can be enacted in a decision process. We review findings in neuroscience, which indicate that intra-personal decision-making takes place in a field of tension between deliberation and affect. The implication is that low level conflicts may leave decision-makers too cold for values to be enacted and therefore want infusion of emotion. On the other hand, emotions in high-level conflicts may run too high to give reason a chance. Emotions, therefore, need to be tempered and this can be achieved through at least two strategies: a focus on consequences rather than virtues and rules and discourse ethics. These are the subjects of the two last parts of the paper. We conclude by proposing five ethical rules for OR analysis of value conflicts. An analyst should not regard herself as being detached from the decision that are made, should be conscious that good decision-making requires temperate emotions that balance affect and deliberation, should promote focus on consequences, should promote the view that stakeholders have intrinsic value; they should not be treated instrumentally and should encourage fair processes to identify stakeholder values.     

Doing something about the weather

Recent developments in weather forecasting have created the potential for the operations research and management science (OR/MS) community to have a tremendous impact in distilling weather information into valuable decision tools. Weather-sensitive applications include transport, electric utilities, agriculture, and public emergency management. This article surveys existing research and practice using OR/MS tools to integrate weather forecasts in decision-making. Because the conditions that created the potential for OR/MS contributions—in particular an explosion in the amount of relevant forecast data—are quite recent, the amount of existing OR/MS work is modest. This article also describes promising but unexplored research opportunities for the OR/MS community.     

Quadratic programming applications

Although quadratic programming (QP) is often studied as a methodology by decision scientists, little emphasis seems to be given to the type of decision science problems that can be so modeled. This paper reviews and extends some of the applied and methodological areas where QP is applicable, discussing and illustrating the characteristics and aspects of the accompanying solutions. Some of the methodological areas amenable include regression analysis, decision analysis, and quadratic approximations to generally complex functions. In the functional management areas, QP is applicable to problems in economics, such as demand-supply response and enterprise selection. In finance, it is used in portfolio analysis; in agriculture, in crop selection. Both the methodological and functional applications of QP are reviewed. Potential new applications of QP are suggested.     

Operational research, social well-being and the zero growth concept

Operational Research (OR) can be regarded as the use of science and scientific methods to influence decisionsto the benefit of society. In military, industrial and government contexts, overall social objectives have so far been taken for granted: victory, profitability, expansion of production and services, and so on; but now such simple objectives are in question. Management, technology and growth are seen to conflict with humanity, quality of life and prosperity. OR at present puts much more effort into pursuing the former group than the latter. Even the scientific method is under attack as a way of deciding social issues. OR must be able to justify its methods and its application. The old simple minded objectives are still pursued, but less whole-heartedly. There will be less demand for major OR studies of that kind. If OR is to survive, it must re-examine its social role in the new world climate.     

Present positions and future prospects in management science

This paper offers some thoughts on the present state of management science as a discipline and a profession, and considers possible developmental strategies. The growth of management science, and the optimism this engendered, was largely premised on the successful use of scientific methodology and quantitative techniques to solve a relatively narrow range of management problems. In the 1970s, however, this positivist/quantitative ‘traditional management science’ became subject to increasing critical assault from those who wanted to broaden the impact of the discipline. Alternative management science approaches were born—soft systems thinking, organisational cybernetics, critical management science—and succeeded in establishing themselves. The existence of these alternative strands of work, alongside traditional management science, raises important questions about the future development of the discipline and profession. In this paper four developmental possibilities are set down and examined to see what future prospects they hold out for management science. It is argued that three of these—the isolationist, imperialist and pragmatist strategies—would lead the discipline into a dead end. A pluralist option, however, offers excellent opportunities for successful, future development.     

Cybernetics and the management science process

This paper addresses methodological issues currently confronting the management science community. The urgency of these issues is evidenced by [1] the growing debate over the implementability of MS/OR (Management Science/Operational Research) models, [2] the absence of professional agreement on a ‘generalized’ theory of organizational structure and control and [3] the dearth of substantive contributions in the area of ‘policy’ analysis and modeling. It is argued that any resolution of these issues must address the management science process and that developments in cybernetics provide an integrating framework for this purpose. Aspects of this framework are presented by pointing out distinctions between the more traditional MS/OR approaches and the proposed cybernetic approach. Some of the concepts involved are not always associated with cybernetics, but the implications for the practice of management science are significant.     

Eight puzzles of leadership science

In the early 1900s, David Hilbert introduced a set of 23 mathematical problems. These problems caught the imagination of mathematicians around the world for the coming century and beyond. The advantage of such defined scientific puzzles is to galvanize coordinated efforts to pursue key scientific questions, whose answers can also address the grand challenges faced by society. Consequently, science can advance more quickly in a theory-driven, rigorous, open and collaborative manner, with meaningful implications for stakeholders. In the current editorial, I propose eight puzzles that could similarly motivate and guide leadership science. Whereas this list is not exhaustive--rather it is just eight starting points--beginning to solve such puzzles will accelerate our science and deliver on shared promises to our stakeholders. I then present actionable guidelines necessary to solve these puzzles and conclude by discussing the role The Leadership Quarterly will play in facilitating the pursuit of solutions to these puzzles.     

Improving the efficiency of IT help-desk service by Six Sigma management methodology (DMAIC) – a case study of C company

Six Sigma concept depicts a ‘Triangle Relationship’ that integrates three attributes such as customer quality, science manners and team work. By employing this concept with the required survey and data collection to carry out the continuous improvement, a company can truly take advantage of the minimum set of operational variables and the lowest cost procedures, and hence, result in an increasing competitive value for/to the company. This research is conducted based on the Six Sigma methodology, DMAIC (definition, measurement, analysis, improvement and control) principle, and it deals with project-related issues to improve the efficiency of information technology (IT) help-desk service through an eHelp-desk system. It is the authors’ belief that the use of eHelp-desk system can help case company to improve its service quality and efficiency. In addition, managerial implications and research limitations are discussed at the end of this article.     

Stock Evaluation Using a Preference Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a real application of a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach to portfolio selection based on preference disaggregation, using ordinal regression and linear programming (UTADIS method; UTilités Additives DIScriminantes). The additive utility functions that are derived through this approach have the extrapolation ability that any new alternative (share) can be easily evaluated and classified into one of several user-predefined groups. The procedure is illustrated with a case study of 98 stocks from the Athens stock exchange, using 15 criteria. The results are encouraging, indicating that the proposed methodology could be used as a tool for the analysis of the portfolio managers' preferences and choices. Furthermore, the comparison with multiple discriminant analysis (either using a stepwise procedure or not) illustrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over a well-known multivariate statistical technique that has been extensively used to study financial decision-making problems.     

Advanced concepts for bulk power system studies

Over the years the gap between the science available for system planning and the application of this science to real world problems has steadily widened. At the same time the demand for timely studies of regional and national scope of the bulk power system has increased dramatically. This paper presents a unified approach which will reduce the gap between the science and application and will provide a facility for timely studies. Also, it will serve as a focal point and foundation for research and developments in system planning methodology. It will achieve this by utilizing the most advanced concepts in computation and pictorial presentation to create a bulk power system study capability unmatched in the United States, and perhaps the world.     

Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.