Data bank on the future business environment

This paper describes research undertaken using futures research methods to construct a data bank on the future business environment. It is called The Business Trends Library. It is often said that it is not possible to forecast business futures, so planning should be adapted so that we can drive blind into the future. The author disagrees with this school of thought. Most studies of business futures appear to be too narrowly based and not systematic enough. When interactions from all relevant areas can be taken into account, it is possible to narrow the uncertainty considerably about future events, and be much more specific about what will happen. Examples are shown to illustrate this.     

Probabilistic Analysis of the Inadvertent Reentry of the Cassini Spacecraft''s Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators

As part of the launch approval process, the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel provides an independent safety assessment of space missions--such as the Cassini mission--that carry a significant amount of nuclear materials. This survey article describes potential accident scenarios that might lead to release of fuel from an accidental reentry during an Earth swingby maneuver, the probabilities of such scenarios, and their consequences. To illustrate the nature of calculations used in this area, examples are presented of probabilistic models to obtain both the probability of scenario events and the resultant source terms of such scenarios. Because of large extrapolations from the current knowledge base, the analysis emphasizes treatment of uncertainties.     

Tioxide: Computerization—The key to the future in financial planning

As the capability of new computer systems becomes increasingly sophisticated, so does the application of computer techniques to financial and strategic planning become more relevant to management. Planning and practically all forms of decision-making are concerned with the future, which necessarily is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Forecasting methods, however, can suggest trends and it is possible to reduce the number of possible futures to a manageable number, in effect, creating scenarios. But the viewing of multiple scenarios in a manual accounting system is impractical, given the sheer volume of work, and this is where the facilities offered by computerization can assist decision-making greatly. The case study illustrated here concerns a multinational company with production facilities in seven different countries, using a sophisticated financial software packege for strategic and financial planning applications. The article traces the development of Tioxide's association with a financial modelling package, Planmaster, from initial use on a time-sharing basis to the changes in hardware manufacture which made it possible to run what is essentially a mainframe program on the desk-top microcomputer of the planning department.     

Foresight Study on the Risk Governance of New Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology

Technology‐led innovation represents an important driver of European economic and industrial competitiveness and offers solutions to societal challenges. In order to facilitate responsible innovation and public acceptance, a need exists to identify and implement oversight approaches focused on the effective risk governance of emerging technologies. This article describes a foresight study on the governance of new technologies, using nanotechnology as a case example. Following a mapping of the governance landscape, four plausible foresight scenarios were developed, capturing critical uncertainties for nanotechnology governance. Key governance elements were then stress tested within these scenarios to see how well they might perform in a range of possible futures and to inform identification of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for nanotechnology governance in Europe. Based on the study outcomes, recommendations are proposed regarding the development of governance associated with the responsible development of new technologies.     

Reducing Risk Through Real Options in Systems Design: The Case of Architecting a Maritime Domain Protection System

Complex engineering systems are usually designed to last for many years. Such systems will face many uncertainties in the future. Hence the design and deployment of these systems should not be based on a single scenario, but should incorporate flexibility. Flexibility can be incorporated in system architectures in the form of options that can be exercised in the future when new information is available. Incorporating flexibility comes, however, at a cost. To evaluate if this cost is worth the investment a real options analysis can be carried out. This approach is demonstrated through analysis of a case study of a previously developed static system-of-systems for maritime domain protection in the Straits of Malacca. This article presents a framework for dynamic strategic planning of engineering systems using real options analysis and demonstrates that flexibility adds considerable value over a static design. In addition to this it is shown that Monte Carlo analysis and genetic algorithms can be successfully combined to find solutions in a case with a very large number of possible futures and system designs.     

Strategic learning with scenarios

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios ‘simply’ consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.     

高频数据条件下基于ETF基金的股指期货套利研究

利用无套利区间分析方法,构建了高频数据条件下基于ETF基金组合的股指期货套利模型,并对自有资金投资者及融资融券投资者的期现套利过程进行了分析。实证研究发现中国股指期货市场的正向套利机会多于反向套利机会,期现套利过程中的错误定价率较高,表现出非均衡性;融资融券的费率较高使得该类型投资者的无套利区间较大,而该做空机制的引入在一定程度上抑制了市场的过度套利行为。由于季月期货合约的交易时间相对较长,因此该类型合约的套利机会要多于当月交易的其它类型合约。即使交割日有20%的涨跌幅限制,但交割日当天的平均错误定价率、瞬时套利平均收益率与交割日的前三交易日相比基本相同,但连续套利机会有所增加。     

Scenarios, past, present and future.

A key point in considering strategic planning is that it is not forecasting. The future is unpredictable and is not a product of the past. This low opinion of forecasting has gained in influence recently. But such an approach creates a dilemma for the strategic planner. He needs to take into account potential future forces--but he can only do this with inadequate means. Forecasting methods, however, can suggest trends and it is possible to reduce the number of possible futures to a manageable number. This is, in effect, creating scenarios. The concept of using alternative scenarios in planning was popularized some 20 years back. The proviso was made that they should not be interpreted as forecasts. The methods have proved highly flexible and include the consensus technique, the iteration-through-synopsis technique, and the cross-impact method. Various studies using one or more of these have been implemented, perhaps the best known being by Meadows and by Mesarovic. These have been based on the so-called 'hard' method, using computers. 'Soft' methods are based more on the mind and use psychology and sociology, the most familiar being the Delphi method. A somewhat more sophisticated version is Cross-Impact Analysis.     

Spinning the future

You may not be able to predict the future, but you can create scenarios to help you think about the future proactively. Instead of attempting to tell the future, tell stories about it. Here are eight steps to help you zero in on the future--they are designed to take you through the process of spinning scenarios in order to make decision-making, long-term planning, and thinking about the future more fruitful. Spinning scenarios is a highly sophisticated, singularly useful, and imminently practical way to think about the future. Yet, it is simple enough that you can do it yourself.     

Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review

A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties.     

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high‐intensity events, is known as “surface water flooding.” Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively.     

Wisdom principles as a meta-theoretical basis for evaluating leadership

This article responds to calls in the management and leadership literature to articulate a role for wisdom. While many talk about the role of wisdom, few people have attempted to articulate what it consists of. We suggest five principles that define wise leadership. We then position wisdom in a complex world, both within the transformational, authentic and spiritual leadership literature and the knowledge based view of organizations, and suggest how leaders should be evaluated. Finally, we suggest the need for future research directions and practical application.     

Strategic flexibility analysis of HRD research and practice post COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

While governments, intergovernmental organizations, non-profits, corporations are all aware that disruptions through pandemics and other natural bio-disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic can happen, barely are we proactive about them. Instead, we are always reactive. In a virtual Town Hall meeting of the Academy of Human Resource Development (AHRD) held on 9 April 2020, on the theme ‘How is the pandemic a game-changer for HRD?,’ the President of AHRD, Laura Bierema, challenged HRD scholars to determine the possible futures of HRD scholarship post-COVID-19 Pandemic. This article proposes the use of the Strategic Flexibility Framework (SFF) to determine the possible futures of HRD post-COVID-19 pandemic. I first discuss the SFF as a scenario planning and analysis tool. I then developed four scenarios of possible futures for HRD Research and Practice post-COVID-19 pandemic. These scenarios include the ‘Meaning of work,’ ‘Leadership,’ ‘Contactless Commerce & Education,’ and ‘Volunteerism.’ I conclude by discussing the important opportunities that can serve as intervention points for post-COVID-19 HRD theory, research, and practice.     

中国原油期货动态风险溢出研究

本文首次量化分析了我国原油期货与国际基准原油、上证指数以及人民币汇率之间的风险溢出关系。通过构建收益率和波动率的静态和动态网络,本文对我国原油期货与国内外市场之间的信息流向的强度、方向和动态性进行了初步的探索。研究发现,我国上市的原油期货与国际基准原油之间的信息关联密切,与股票市场以及汇率市场之间的关系相对较弱。同时,在构建的原油-股票-汇率系统中,我国原油期货处于信息的接收方,国际油价波动信息对我国原油期货市场存在明显的正向冲击作用。     

不确定环境下研发投资决策的期权博弈模型

假定产出价格(随机需求)服从带跳的几何布朗运动来模拟研发项目中突发事件和市场的不确定性特点,拓展了用几何布朗运动模拟市场不确定性的双寡头期权博弈模型,同时也是在带跳的几何布朗运动的实物期权方法中融入了竞争策略互动的影响.敏感性分析结果表明随着这两类不确定性的增大,参与双方进入门槛值都变大.突发事件带来的不确定提高会使得参与双方的期权价值降低,但是市场的不确定性变大对于追随者来说等待是有价值的,对领先者的期权价值的影响却是不定的.     

Industrial applications of cross-impact analysis

The implicit or explicit ceteris paribus assumption usually made in the planning of economic systems (e.g. industries) is acceptable and accepted during periods of regular economic development; in this context, sensitivity analysis around the central projection is often used in order to measure effective elasticities to unexpected small perturbations of the system.In periods of structural change, unpredictable major events greatly reduce the value of any trend projection, and the ceteris paribus assumption has to be replaced by ‘scenarios’ of the future environment.The causal structure which generates these events is unknown; in such a situation, it seems reasonable to rely upon ‘opinions’ in order to assess the a priori probabilities of these events. Cross-impact analysis is one of the methods developed in order to improve human probability judgments of single and pairs of events and in order to deal explicitly with higher order interactions; in particular, cross-impact allows for the computation of the most probable combination of the events considered, or ‘most probable scenario’. In the industrial planning process, this ‘most probable scenario’ can be used as the set of exogeneous conditions for the central projection.     

Quantitative Assessment of Building Fire Risk to Life Safety

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.     

Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects

Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost‐effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief‐networks‐based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk‐related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures.     

Negotiate the salary you want

How can physician executives negotiate the salary and terms that they want for a new position? The idea of negotiation raises the anxiety level of all but a few people, those who thrive on the thrill of competitive bargaining. Most physicians do not relish the process and view it as a type of conflict. But without knowing what you want to accomplish and preparing to ask for it, you may well leave the meeting frustrated and unhappy with the offer. Determine what you want before you get into an important negotiation. You will get clear on what you want much quicker and you will remember the points better when you talk to the other person.     

中国商品期货回报与现货价格变化测度研究——基于便利收益模型的视角

本文基于便利收益模型(CYM)的视角推导出商品期限结构、期货回报并对期货回报进行分解。选取我国三个商品期货交易所相关数据作为样本,对我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化进行测度研究。研究发现,在样本期内,商品期货回报和现货价格变化之间不存在密切关系;以展期收益或预期现货价格变化为条件的商品风险溢价具有时变性;平均展期收益反映了现货价格变化对风险溢价的预期偏离;期货期限结构、便利收益和展期收益准确地预测了现货价格变化。上述研究结果为我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化的测度和管理以及商品期货投资决策设计提供了一些有帮助的理论借鉴和操作性较强的方法选择。