Confidence intervals for the between group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model of anaylsis of variance

A confidence interval for the between group variance is proposed which is deduced from Wald'sexact confidence interval for the rtio of the two variance components in the one-way random effects model and the exact confidence interval for the error variance resp.an unbiased estimator of the error variance. In a simulation study the confidence coeffecients for these two intervals are compared with the confidence coefficients of two other commonly used confidence intervals. There the confidence interval derived here yields confidence coefficiends which are always greater than the prescriped level.     

Empirical likelihood inference for the bivariate survival function under univariate censoring

In this article, we apply the empirical likelihood method to make inference on the bivariate survival function of paired failure times by estimating the survival function of censored time with the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Adjusted empirical likelihood (AEL) confidence intervals for the bivariate survival function are developed. We conduct a simulation study to compare the proposed AEL method with other methods. The simulation study shows the proposed AEL method has better performance than other existing methods. We illustrate the proposed method by analyzing the skin graft data.     

Efficient mean estimation in log-normal linear models

Log-normal linear models are widely used in applications, and many times it is of interest to predict the response variable or to estimate the mean of the response variable at the original scale for a new set of covariate values. In this paper we consider the problem of efficient estimation of the conditional mean of the response variable at the original scale for log-normal linear models. Several existing estimators are reviewed first, including the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, the restricted ML (REML) estimator, the uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimator, and a bias-corrected REML estimator. We then propose two estimators that minimize the asymptotic mean squared error and the asymptotic bias, respectively. A parametric bootstrap procedure is also described to obtain confidence intervals for the proposed estimators. Both the new estimators and the bootstrap procedure are very easy to implement. Comparisons of the estimators using simulation studies suggest that our estimators perform better than the existing ones, and the bootstrap procedure yields confidence intervals with good coverage properties. A real application of estimating the mean sediment discharge is used to illustrate the methodology.     

Confidence intervals for the difference between two median survival times for clustered survival data

Clustered survival data arise often in clinical trial design, where the correlated subunits from the same cluster are randomized to different treatment groups. Under such design, we consider the problem of constructing confidence interval for the difference of two median survival time given the covariates. We use Cox gamma frailty model to account for the within-cluster correlation. Based on the conditional confidence intervals, we can identify the possible range of covariates over which the two groups would provide different median survival times. The associated coverage probability and the expected length of the proposed interval are investigated via a simulation study. The implementation of the confidence intervals is illustrated using a real data set.     

Asymptotic properties of mean survival estimate based on the Kaplan-Meier curve with an extrapolated tail

Asymptotic distribution of the mean survival time based on the Kaplan-Meier curve with an extrapolated 'tail' is derived. A closed formula of the variance estimate is provided. Asymptotic properties of the estimator were studied in a simulation study, which showed that this estimator was unbiased with proper coverage probability and followed a normal distribution. An example is used to demonstrate the application of this estimator.     

Confidence intervals for variance components in unbalanced one-way random effects model using non-normal distributions

In scenarios where the variance of a response variable can be attributed to two sources of variation, a confidence interval for a ratio of variance components gives information about the relative importance of the two sources. For example, if measurements taken from different laboratories are nine times more variable than the measurements taken from within the laboratories, then 90% of the variance in the responses is due to the variability amongst the laboratories and 10% of the variance in the responses is due to the variability within the laboratories. Assuming normally distributed sources of variation, confidence intervals for variance components are readily available. In this paper, however, simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of confidence intervals under non-normal distribution assumptions. Confidence intervals based on the pivotal quantity method, fiducial inference, and the large-sample properties of the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimator are considered. Simulation results and an empirical example suggest that the REML-based confidence interval is favored over the other two procedures in unbalanced one-way random effects model.     

Estimating the survival function based on the semi-Markov model for dependent censoring

In this paper, we study a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of the survival function based on a semi-Markov model under dependent censoring. We show that the NPMLE is asymptotically normal and achieves asymptotic nonparametric efficiency. We also provide a uniformly consistent estimator of the corresponding asymptotic covariance function based on an information operator. The finite-sample performance of the proposed NPMLE is examined with simulation studies, which show that the NPMLE has smaller mean squared error than the existing estimators and its corresponding pointwise confidence intervals have reasonable coverages. A real example is also presented.     

Bootstrapping survival times in stochastic systems by using saddlepoint approximations

The single bootstrap is implemented by using a saddlepoint approximation to determine estimates for the survival and hazard functions of first-passage times in complicated semi-Markov processes. The double bootstrap is also implemented by resampling saddlepoint inversions and provides BC_a confidence bands for these functions. Confidence intervals for the mean and variance of first-passage times are easily computed. A new characterization of the asymptotic hazard rate for survival times is presented and leads to an indirect method for constructing its bootstrap confidence interval.     

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.     

Confidence intervals for survival quantiles in the Cox regression model

Median survival times and their associated confidence intervals are often used to summarize the survival outcome of a group of patients in clinical trials with failure-time endpoints. Although there is an extensive literature on this topic for the case in which the patients come from a homogeneous population, few papers have dealt with the case in which covariates are present as in the proportional hazards model. In this paper we propose a new approach to this problem and demonstrate its advantages over existing methods, not only for the proportional hazards model but also for the widely studied cases where covariates are absent and where there is no censoring. As an illustration, we apply it to the Stanford Heart Transplant data. Asymptotic theory and simulation studies show that the proposed method indeed yields confidence intervals and bands with accurate coverage errors.     

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator.     

Can efficiency be gained by correcting for misclassification?

This paper considers 2×2 tables arising from case–control studies in which the binary exposure may be misclassified. We found circumstances under which the inverse matrix method provides a more efficient odds ratio estimator than the naive estimator. We provide some intuition for the findings, and also provide a formula for obtaining the minimum size of a validation study such that the variance of the odds ratio estimator from the inverse matrix method is smaller than that of the naive estimator, thereby ensuring an advantage for the misclassification corrected result. As a corollary of this result, we show that correcting for misclassification does not necessarily lead to a widening of the confidence intervals, but, rather, in addition to producing a consistent estimate, can also produce one that is more efficient.     

Estimating the correlation coefficient in the presence of correlated observations from a bivariate normal population

Estimation of the correlation coefficient between two variates (p) in the presence of correlated observations from a bivar iate normal population is considered The estimated maximum likelihood estimator (EMLE), an estimate based on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), is proposed and studied for the estimation of p For the large sample case , approximate expressions foi the variance and the bias of the Pearson estimate of the correlation coefficient are derived. These expressions suggests that the Pearson’s estimator possesses high mean square error (MSE) in estimating ρ in comparison to the MLE The MSE is particularly high when the observations within clusters aie highly correlated. The Pearson’s estimate, the MLE, and the EMLE aie evaluated in a simulation study This study shows that the proposed EMLE pefoims bettei than the Pearson’s correlation coefficient except when the number of clusters is small.     

Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development. We are grateful to the Medical Research Council for supporting this work.     

Small area estimation: the EBLUP estimator based on spatially correlated random area effects

This paper deals with small area indirect estimators under area level random effect models when only area level data are available and the random effects are correlated. The performance of the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP) is explored with a Monte Carlo simulation study on lattice data and it is applied to the results of the sample survey on Life Conditions in Tuscany (Italy). The mean squared error (MSE) problem is discussed illustrating the MSE estimator in comparison with the MSE of the empirical sampling distribution of SEBLUP estimator. A clear tendency in our empirical findings is that the introduction of spatially correlated random area effects reduce both the variance and the bias of the EBLUP estimator. Despite some residual bias, the coverage rate of our confidence intervals comes close to a nominal 95%.     

Bootstrapping Regression Parameters in Multivariate Survival Analysis

Bootstrap methods are proposed for estimating sampling distributions and associated statistics for regression parameters in multivariate survival data. We use an Independence Working Model (IWM) approach, fitting margins independently, to obtain consistent estimates of the parameters in the marginal models. Resampling procedures, however, are applied to an appropriate joint distribution to estimate covariance matrices, make bias corrections, and construct confidence intervals. The proposed methods allow for fixed or random explanatory variables, the latter case using extensions of existing resampling schemes (Loughin,1995), and they permit the possibility of random censoring. An application is shown for the viral positivity time data previously analyzed by Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld (1989). A simulation study of small-sample properties shows that the proposed bootstrap procedures provide substantial improvements in variance estimation over the robust variance estimator commonly used with the IWM. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Improved point and confidence interval estimators of mean response in simulation when control variates are used

In discrete event simulation, the method of control variates is often used to reduce the variance of estimation for the mean of the output response. In the present paper, it is shown that when three or more control variates are used, the usual linear regression estimator of the mean response is one of a large class of unbiased estimators, many of which have smaller variance than the usual estimator. In simulation studies using control variates, a confidence interval for the mean response is typically reported as well. Intervals with shorter width have been proposed using control variates in the literature. The present paper however develops confidence intervals which not only have shorter width but also have higher coverage probability than the usual confidence interval     

Asymptotic Inference for Waiting Times and Patiences in Queues with Abandonment

Motivated by applications in call center management, we propose a framework based on empirical process techniques for inference about waiting time and patience distributions in multiserver queues with abandonment. The framework rigorises heuristics based on survival analysis of independent and identically distributed observations by allowing correlated waiting times. Assuming a regenerative structure of offered waiting times, we establish asymptotic properties of estimators of limiting distribution functions and derived functionals. We discuss construction of bootstrap confidence intervals and statistical tests, including a simple bootstrap two-sample test for comparing patience distributions. A small simulation study and a real data example are presented.     

On the bootstrap in cube root asymptotics

The authors study the application of the bootstrap to a class of estimators which converge at a nonstandard rate to a nonstandard distribution. They provide a theoretical framework to study its asymptotic behaviour. A simulation study shows that in the case of an estimator such as Chernoff's estimator of the mode, usually the basic bootstrap confidence intervals drastically undercover while the percentile bootstrap intervals overcover. This is a rare instance where basic and percentile confidence intervals, which have exactly the same length, behave in a very different way. In the case of Chernoff's estimator, if the distribution is symmetric, it is possible to bootstrap from a smooth symmetric estimator of the distribution for which the basic bootstrap confidence intervals will have the claimed coverage probability while the percentile bootstrap interval will have an asymptotic coverage of 1!     

Variance Estimation and Asymptotic Confidence Bands for the Mean Estimator of Sampled Functional Data with High Entropy Unequal Probability Sampling Designs

For fixed size sampling designs with high entropy, it is well known that the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator can be approximated by the Hájek formula. The interest of this asymptotic variance approximation is that it only involves the first order inclusion probabilities of the statistical units. We extend this variance formula when the variable under study is functional, and we prove, under general conditions on the regularity of the individual trajectories and the sampling design, that we can get a uniformly convergent estimator of the variance function of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator of the mean function. Rates of convergence to the true variance function are given for the rejective sampling. We deduce, under conditions on the entropy of the sampling design, that it is possible to build confidence bands whose coverage is asymptotically the desired one via simulation of Gaussian processes with variance function given by the Hájek formula. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed variance estimator is evaluated on samples of electricity consumption data measured every half an hour over a period of 1 week.