Family size and optimal income taxation

This paper studies the role of family size in the design of optimal income taxation. We consider a second best setting where the government observes the number of children and the income of the parents but not their productivity. With a linear tax schedule the marginal tax rate is shown to decrease with the number of children, while the relationship between the demogrant and family size appears to be ambiguous. With two ability levels, optimal non-linear income tax implies zero marginal tax rates for the higher ability parents; low ability parents have positive marginal tax rates that decrease with family size. Received: 4 September 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001     

Demographic Determinants of Infant and Early Child Mortality: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper we examine the relative importance of a number of demographic determinants of infant and early child mortality using information from 39 World Fertility Survey countries. We include sex of the child, age of the mother at the time of the birth, birth order, mother's educational level and a number of indicators of spacing of adjacent births among the correlates of chances of survival for children below the age of five years. Mortality of firstborn children and of those born to teenage mothers is shown to be higher than average; that of later children and those of older mothers was not much higher than average, once other factors are controlled. Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that sib had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality. Rapid subsequent births also raise mortality for their earlier sibs. The findings are generally remarkably consistent in a wide range of countries and associated mortality conditions, although attention is drawn to a few interesting geographically clustered exceptions which deserve further investigation. The study leaves little room for doubt that poor child-spacing is clearly linked to decreased survival chances.     

Male sterilization as a contraceptive method in Canada an empirical study

Abstract In 1851-61, the crude birth rate in Canada was 45. In 1972, it was approximately 16. Not only have birth rates decreased but the average family size has declined from five or six children per family at the turn of the century to two or three children in the 1970'S. In addition, women are completing their childbearing at an earlier age. 50 years ago, it was not uncommon for a woman to have a child in her late thirties or early forties. To-day, this is a relatively rare event. In fact, it is estimated that approximately 80% of all families have the number of children desired before the woman is 30 years of age. This new demographic pattern creates an important and crucial situation for Canadian couples. At age 30, with all the desired children and 15 more years of potential childbearing ahead of them, what can they do to prevent the occurrence of additional pregnancies?     

Growing Diversity among America's Children and Youth: Spatial and Temporal Dimensions

This study documents the changing racial and ethnic mix of America's children. Specifically, we focus on the unusually rapid shifts in the composition and changing spatial distribution of America's young people between 2000 and 2008. Minorities grew to 43 percent of all children and youth, up from 38.5 percent only eight years earlier. In 1990, this figure stood at 33 percent. Among 0–4‐year‐olds, 47 percent of all children were minority in 2008. Changes in racial and ethnic composition are driven by two powerful demographic forces. The first is the rapid increase since 2000 in the number of minority children—with Hispanics accounting for 80 percent of the growth. The second is the absolute decline in the number of non‐Hispanic white children and youth. The growth of minority children and racial diversity is distributed unevenly over geographical space. Over 500 (or roughly 1 in 6) counties now have majority‐minority youth populations. Broad geographic areas of America nevertheless remain mono‐racial, where only small shares of minorities live.     

The constancy of local populations and migration in England before 1800

The possibility of obtaining numerical measures of the constancy of local populations and of migrations by comparing lists of names of inhabitants at successive dates is considered and illustrated by brief summaries of results obtained by earlier writers and by the present writer. These results are promising, and suggest important contrasts between different periods and between different parts of the country, but are too few in number and too limited in scope to lead to conclusive generalizations. A systematic study of the material based on a scientific sampling scheme is suggested as a method of extending our knowledge of these aspects of demographic history.     

Residential proximity of parents and their adult offspring in the United Kingdom, 2009–10

Using data from a large household survey representative of the UK population, we studied how closely parents and adult children live to each other. We show that residential mobility over the life course tends to increase with the physical distance between the homes of parent and child. There are large differences in intergenerational proximity between the foreign-born and UK-born, and between ethnic groups. The determinants of intergenerational proximity from the parent's viewpoint are not identical to those from the child's viewpoint. Contrary to the findings of some earlier studies, intergenerational proximity, from the child's viewpoint, does not vary with the number of siblings. But from the parent's viewpoint, having more children is unambiguously associated with a higher probability of living close to at least one child. We end with a brief discussion of some possible implications of several long-term demographic trends in the UK for intergenerational proximity.     

Household extension of the elderly in China

Using data from a 1987 elderly survey, this study examines demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as expressed preferences for the patrilineal extended family as factors affecting coresidence among Chinese elderly. Consistent with expectations, three quarters of the elderly live with their children and the overwhelming majority of extended households are with a married son and grandchildren. This study contributes to the literature on Asian developing nations by illustrating the role of a government supported pension system in explaining prior perplexing results for urbanization, by documenting the role of preferences for the patrilineal extended family and by exploring earlier suggestions that factors vary by marital status. The greater vulnerability of widowed elderly is shown not only by higher rates of coresidence, but also by interactive effects with economic resources, age and number of sons.     

Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.     

How have American baby boomers fared? Earnings and economic well-being of young adults, 1964–1987

For American baby boomers, altered demographic behavior has been the key to transforming adverse labor market conditions into favorable living levels. The economic well-being of baby boomers is, on average, higher than that of their predecessors, because they are disproportionately remaining single, having fewer children, doubling up with others, forming unmarried couple unions, and coupling mother's work with childbearing. In the 1980s, baby boomers share in common with all cohorts an increase in income inequality. In contrast to the findings on average income, demographic changes had little effect on the trend in inequality of economic well-being compared with that in earnings.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto, Canada, May 3, 1990. The authors are grateful to Donna Hokoda for excellent assistance and to the University of Southern California for financial support. Support for Easterlin was also provided by a Guggenheim Fellowship, 1988–1989. The uniform file prepared by Mare and Winship (1985) was used for the 1965 Current Population Survey data reported here.     

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

Effects of demographic and retirement-age policies on future pension deficits, with an application to China

A simple method is proposed for projecting future deficits in a defined benefit or defined contribution pension scheme. The annual pension deficit rate is expressed in terms of the elderly dependency ratio (determined by demographic factors), the average retirement age, and a few parameters describing the scheme. An illustrative application to China demonstrates that if the average age at retirement gradually increases from the current low level to age 65 for both men and women in 2050, the annual pension deficit rate would be greatly reduced or even eliminated under various plausible demographic regimes over this period. With all else equal, a transition to a two-child policy (assuming this would raise fertility) would also lower the deficit rate in comparison to keeping the current fertility policy unchanged, although the effect would be seen only after 2030. The effect of potentially faster mortality decline in raising future deficits is appreciable and starts earlier than the effects of fertility change. The proposed method may also be used to gauge the magnitudes and timing of impacts on future pension deficits of alternative assumptions regarding levels and age/sex composition of international migration.     

Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons

Sonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old-age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.     

A modification for use in destabilized populations of brass's technique for estimating completeness of death registration

The analysis of censuses for pre-industrial Europe has caused doubts about the supposed dominance of stem and joint family organization in earlier times. Using a hypothetical example of a nuclear family organization where extended composition is only found when widowed persons find shelter in the household of one of their children, we show that both the expected value and the variance of the estimated frequency of extended composition are high under demographic circumstances typical of pre-industrial Europe. This makes inferences about family organization based on data concerning family composition hazardous     

The Paradox of Children and Life Satisfaction

Empirical analyses of the determinants of life satisfaction routinely include the number of children as one of the socio demographic controls, without explicitly considering that, for a given household income, more children imply a lower level of income per family member. The variable “number of children” then often attracts a negative or insignificant coefficient. Using data from the German Socio Economic Panel 1984–2007 we confirm that the sign of the coefficient for the variable “number of children in the household” is negative when introducing household income without correction for the number of members in a life satisfaction regression. On the contrary, when we equivalise income with the most commonly adopted equivalence scales, so eliminating the monetary cost of raising children, the impact of the variable is positive and significant when a high level of economies of scale is assumed. Our results however lead us to reject slope homogeneity as we find strong differences by gender and region. In particular, the positive effect of children on life satisfaction is stronger for males and East Germans. We interpret these subsample split results as driven by heterogeneous opportunity costs and cultural traits.     

Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women

The model developed in this paper extends Bongaarts's nuclear family model into a general one that accounts for both nuclear and three-generation families, and which is expected to be more widely applicable. In the paper a simulation and comparison of two cohorts of women who are assumed to live out their lives under demographic conditions of China in 1950–70 and 1981 is presented. The status distribution and expected years spent in different parities, marital statuses, being the child of surviving parent(s), being a parent of living children, and having responsibility for both elderly parent(s) and young children etc. are given. The consequences of the dramatic demographic changes are clearly demonstrated.     

Expectations of additional children by race,parity, and selected socio-economic characteristics,United States: 1967

This is a study of fertility expectations of wives in relation to selected demographic and social and economic characteristics. The data for this study were obtained from a special survey conducted in 1967 from a probability sample of 30,000 households. The analyzed data show that the number of children expected in the next five years is inversely related to parity. Because of the inverse relationship, the expectations of additional children tend to be inversely related to age at marriage of wife, number of years married, and similar temporal variables. The data show also that there exists an inverse relationship between expectations of additional children and selected socio-economic characteristics, such as education of wife, occupation, and income of husband.     

Sex ratios and the red dragon: using the Chinese Communist Revolution to explore the effect of the sex ratio on women and children in Taiwan

In 1949, Mao Zedong and the People’s Liberation Army defeated the Chinese Nationalist Army. Hundreds of thousands of mainland Chinese fled to the island of Taiwan. In this paper, I use the demographic consequences of the Chinese Communist Revolution and subsequent Taiwanese military policy to identify the effect of the marriage market sex ratio on women and children in Taiwan. I find that as the sex ratio rises, the bride price relative to the dowry increases, the fraction of female children in a family increases, the total number of children in a family decreases, and human capital investments in children increase.     

An examination of demographic variables, nurturance, and empathy among homosexual and heterosexual big brother/big sister volunteers

Potential volunteers are often screened for sexual orientation and, in most circumstances, excluded if they are gay men or lesbians. This is especially true if the volunteer's work involves children. Big Brothers/Big Sisters of San Francisco deviates from this practice and screens volunteers based on other attributes. This study investigates differences in demographic variables, nurturance, and empathy among homosexual and heterosexual Big Brothers/Big Sisters of San Francisco. Two hundred nineteen questionnaires were returned and results indicated that there were no significant differences in demographic factors, nurturance, or empathy based on sexual orientation. Gender differences for the study variables were found and these are consistent with the results of earlier studies. Three significant factors were identified: stability, social support and personality attributes. Sexual orientation was not a significant factor.     

When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan

The objective of this paper is to investigate the direct financial cost and benefit of raising children during a demographic transition in Taiwan, and to examine whether fertility decline is consistent with Caldwell’s wealth flow theory, which states that fertility decline is caused by reduced benefits of children. The paper describes a method of estimating the average economic returns of children over the entire parental lifecycle, using a 42-year span of Taiwanese household and individual economic pseudo-panel data. Results show that returns to children may turn positive and are not highly negative all the time, as found in the previous literature.     

When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan

The objective of this paper is to investigate the direct financial cost and benefit of raising children during a demographic transition in Taiwan, and to examine whether fertility decline is consistent with Caldwell??s wealth flow theory, which states that fertility decline is caused by reduced benefits of children. The paper describes a method of estimating the average economic returns of children over the entire parental lifecycle, using a 42-year span of Taiwanese household and individual economic pseudo-panel data. Results show that returns to children may turn positive and are not highly negative all the time, as found in the previous literature.