Abortion flash

A 3-judge federal court in Miami on August 14 struck down the only remaining portion of Florida's abortion law still at issue - the requirement for a husband's or parent's consent for a legal abortion. The lawsuit was brought by Miami Zero Population Growth and the Population Law Center of San Francisco. The vote was 3-0. This decision is particularly important in that it is a "case of 1st impression" on an issue not previously decided. The unanimous decision by a federal court adds to its significance.     

A special section for correspondence and controversy

Summary The programs described above cost the state about $1 billion. Other state costs (which are not my responsibility) are incarceration costs for illegals, $400 million. Education cost for children of illegals has been estimated to be $1.7 billion this year. These two alone equal $2.1 billion.Please accept my assurances, and those of Governor Wilson, that we in the administration are not xenophobic or nativistic.I do not know if 8.6 million persons is a reasonable number for our nation of 250 million plus to accept and assimilate. I am convinced that 4.3 million is too many for a single state of 30 million to assimilate effectively. Certainly the costs of doing so are beyond our capacity to absorb without help.I am convinced that our existing assimilation ability is hamstrung by federal practice that ignores our immigration laws by permitting an unchecked flow of illegal immigrants into our country. Over half of this population enters and resides in California.The problem is exacerbated by the almost total failure of the federal government to support itslegal immigration decisions with federal funds to offset the costs of the resultant influx of immigrants.Presented at the Pacific Research Institute Conference on immigration, San Francisco, CA, April 25, 1994.     

Welfare reform and immigrant fertility

Immigration policy is at the forefront of US policy discussions, and the use of welfare benefits by immigrants has been hotly debated. In 1996, Congress enacted welfare reform legislation, which imposed strict restrictions on welfare eligibility for noncitizens. However, a number of states restored access to welfare benefits to immigrants that had been cut out in the federal welfare reform law. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we examine whether immigrant women adjusted their childbearing in response to changes in the generosity of welfare benefits at the state-level. We find that noncitizen women reduced their fertility in response to cutbacks imposed by the legislation. Our findings, which prove robust to a number of identification and robustness checks, underscore how immigrants respond to state-level policies and provide insight into the potential impacts of comprehensive immigration reform, particularly the components related to the path to citizenship and access to public benefits.     

Dudley Kirk on Population Changes and Prospective Power Relations after World War II: A View from 1943

The theory of demographic transition in its best‐known modern formulation was developed in the early 1940s by a small group of researchers associated with Princeton University's Office of Population Research, under the leadership of Frank W. Notestein. A notable early adumbration of the theory in print—in fact preceding the most often cited contemporaneous articles by Notestein and by Kingsley Davis—was by Dudley Kirk, one of the Princeton demographers, in an article titled “Population changes and the postwar world,” originally presented by its author on 4 December 1943 at the 38th Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Society, held in New York. It is reproduced below in full from the February 1944 issue of American Sociological Review (Vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 28–35). In the article Kirk, then 30 years old, briefly discusses essential elements of the concept of the demographic transition. He characterizes trends in birth and death rates as closely linked to developmental changes: to the transition “from a peasant, self‐sufficient society to an urban, industrial society.” He sees the countries of the world as arranged on a “single continuum of development” and, correspondingly, on a continuum of demographic configurations. These countries, he suggests, may be divided into three broad groups: the first, with high mortality and high fertility, possessing great potential population growth; the second, “caught up in the tide of industrialization and urbanization,” hence exhibiting birth and death rates that are both declining but in a pattern that generates rapid population growth; and a third, with low fertility and low mortality, pointing toward the prospect of eventual depopulation. He describes the temporal and geographic process of material progress and demographic change as one of cultural and technological diffusion emanating from the West. But Kirk's main interest in this article is the effects of the patterns generated by economic change and the ensuing demographic transition on shifts in relative power—military and economic—within the system of nations, both historically and in the then dawning postcolonial era. On the latter score, even if occasionally colored by judgments reflecting perspectives unsurprising in 1943, such as in his assessment of the economic potential of the Soviet Union, Kirk's probing of the likely consequences of evolving trends in power relationships as shaped by shifting economic and demographic weights—issues now largely neglected in population studies—is often penetrating and remarkably prescient. His views on the implication of these trends for the desirable American stance toward the economic and demographic modernization of less developed countries—friendly assistance resulting in rapid expansion of markets, and trade speeding a social evolution that also brings about slower population growth—represent what became an influential strand in postwar US foreign policy. Dudley Kirk was born 6 October 1913 in Rochester, New York, but grew up in California. After graduating from Pomona College, he received an M.A. in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University in 1935 and a Ph.D. in sociology from Harvard in 1946. He was associated with Princeton's OPR between 1939 and 1947, where he published his influential monograph Europe's Population in the Interwar Years (1946) and, with Frank Notestein and others, coauthored the book The Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union (1944). From 1947 to 1954 he was demographer in the Office of Intelligence Research of the US State Department, the first person having that title in the federal government. From 1954 to 1967 he was director of the Demographic Division of the Population Council in New York, and from 1967 until his retirement in 1979 he was professor of population studies at Stanford University. In 1959–60 he was president of the Population Association of America. Dudley Kirk died 14 March 2000 in San Jose, California.     

The measurement of structural ageing – an axiomatic approach

Contraceptive access is influenced by policy decisions, which can expand and constrict the contraceptive options available. This study explored the impact of recent US federal policies on contraceptive access by identifying and reviewing empirical literature, which is then presented and discussed using Levesque et al.’s (2013) healthcare access framework. A scoping review was conducted to identify empirical studies (N = 96) examining the impact of recent federal policy (passed from 2009 to 2019) on contraceptive access. Most identified studies examined the role of the Affordable Care Act (n = 53) and Title X of the Public Health Service Act (n = 25), showing many benefits of both policies for contraceptive access, particularly through improved affordability, availability, and appropriateness of contraceptive care. Other identified studies examined the impact of policies funding abstinence-only sex education (n = 2) and the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program (n = 3), military policies related to the availability of contraception (n = 1), guidelines for quality contraceptive care (n = 3), Title IX of the Education Amendments (n = 4), the Violence Against Women Act (n = 1), and the Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act (n = 4). Through increased outreach efforts, normalising of care, availability of services, cost subsidies, and provider competencies, recent federal policy has, overall, enhanced contraceptive access across the dimensions of healthcare access. Numerous policy and practice gaps and needs are identified, and future directions for research, policy, and practice are suggested.

     

Welfare Use Among Older Hispanic Immigrants: The Effect of State and Federal Policy

This study examines the effect of state and federal welfare policy changes on the use of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) among older Hispanic immigrants in the US. The results contribute to the ongoing debate about whether the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 had a “chilling effect” on welfare use. Using data from the 1990 and 2000 US Censuses of Population, we use multi-level binomial logistic regression to evaluate whether state levels of welfare generosity contribute to the probability of SSI use among eligible older Hispanics. Our results show that the decline in SSI receipt between 1990 and 2000 is greater among older Hispanic non-citizens from Mexico, Central and South America as compared to their naturalized and US-born Hispanic counterparts. We also demonstrate that state differences in welfare generosity did not moderate the effect of federal policies during this time period as was expected.     

The price of children and socio-economic theories of fertility

Abstract Demographers have for some time suggested that the cost of children has an important bearing on couples' fertility decisions. Dublin and Lotka, for example, voiced the opinion that 'it is undoubtedly the anticipation of greatly increased expenditures, the sudden demands made on the family exchequer when a child is born and for some time after, that causes people of limited income to restrict the size of their families'. Banks, Myrdal, and Day and Day have echoed this same theme.     

The population of Libya

Very little information is available about the size and composition of the population of Libya. The author has collected together the available information, both official and unofficial. He describes the resources available for feeding the population, and tries to evaluate a natural rate of increase. He reaches the conclusion that the rate of increase is large in relation to the resources that are available and that there is a danger of over-population. An attempt is also made to assess the significance of Italian colonization on the demographic situation of Libya.     

Videoüberwachung von Demonstrationen und die Definitionsmacht der Polizei. Zwischen Objektivitätsfiktion und selektiver Sanktionierung

The paper examines the use of video surveillance in the context of protest policing, drawing on group discussions and expert interviews with the riot police as well as ethnographic fieldwork. The use of video surveillance is legitimised by the police through a promise of objectivity and stringent compliance to the law. The author analyses the use of video surveillance as a contingent process of actively constructing evidence. It consists of a series of decisions in three phases: starting with the determination of the potential to use surveillance to the police oriented application, and finally, the follow up phase, focusing on the developments of results and prosecution. The variety of courses of action to make use of surveillance right up to manipulation of results is considered to be an expression of sociological discretion, in which the police definitional power rests. Especially, the involved technology allows for existing contingencies apparent in every substep to become invisible through material objectifications and abstractions. In this process, the law proves to be only one motive for agency among others. The idea of the police being determined by law becomes visible as a necessary fiction.     

Climate Change Facts,Strategies, Choices and Innovations

Canada's Action Plan is the federal response to its international obligation under the UN Framework Convention of 1992 whereby Canada must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 level by the year 2000. The Plan is failing completely, because of its essentially voluntary nature. Overall, greenhouse gas emissions will have increased 13 per cent in Canada between 1990 and 2000, four per cent more than the population increase for that period. Five other plans studied by government agencies are projected to fail to achieve the called-for reductions in emission. An analogous plan, the Rational Energy Plan, developed by a network of nongovernment organizations, is projected to enable the federal government to achieve its obligations under the Framework Convention and also its further obligations under the 1995 Berlin Mandate. This Plan has been analyzed using the government's own analytical tools which project that it will offer Canada substantial annual increases in employment for at least ten years, more prosperous households for more than ten years, and a smaller federal deficit for at least eight years. The federal government has no viable alternative to adopting this plan as soon as practicable. This paper explains some of the needed preliminaries to introducing the Plan, together with examples of tax-shifting and of easily implemented stick-and-carrot inducements to making the Plan work in a sea of partly hostile provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland). The Plan will not be easy to implement because of necessary changes in human habits of thinking and attitudes. A new and simple strategy for reducing fuel wastage on highways is introduced in this paper; and also the concept of extended cogeneration, the Rational Energy Plan itself being a particularly fine example.     

Where does social change come from?

Many discussions, academic and otherwise, implicitly assume that public opinion changes because opinions change. This ignores the possibility that public opinion changes because publics change. In this paper I show how, by modifying existing component-difference methods, the proximate sources of societal change - actual individual change versus change in publics (turnover) - can be separated using repeated survey data. The method is applied to change in gender role attitudes in the United States, using 1972–1988 data from the General Social Surveys. Both components have contributed substantially to the trend away from traditional attitudes. Yet there is an important difference: Population turnover has contributed steadily to the trend, whereas the contribution of individual change has been erratic from survey to survey.     

Public attitudes toward gays and lesbians: trends and predictors

Public opinion about gay men and lesbians is a popular topic in both the popular press and academic journals. However, analyses of attitudinal trends are rare. Tracing changes in opinion polls on homosexuals in the United States between 1977 and 2003, the first part of the present study showed that public opinion of this minority group has become more positive over time. Part two of this research utilized a recent national survey to identify factors predicting anti-gay attitudes. The best predictors included respondents' sex, stance of anti-abortion and anti-women's equality, and religiosity. Implications for gay rights advocates were discussed.     

Legal images of the family in the United States: An exercise in using law as data

The primary concern of the sociology of law properly has been the analysis of legal processes, professions, and institutions. Most sociologists who are not sociologists of law do not realize the usefulness of the substantive law as a source of data concerning their areas of interest. The utility of law as a source of data is illustrated with examples from recent law affecting the family. These examples are used to suggest a model of the relationship between the family as a unit, its members as individuals, and the larger society. In this model, the primary focus is on individuals but emphasis is given to the family as an important source of individual rights and expectations.     

Several recent Supreme Court decisions and their implications for political redistricting in Voting Rights Act context

This paper focuses on four recent United States Supreme Court decisions which have profound implications for political redistricting. These cases are Holder v. Hall, Johnson v. De Grandy, Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson. Each of these cases place limits on the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act when conducting a political redistricting or fashioning a remedy for a Section 2 violation. These cases have resolved a number of important issues in redistricting while creating yet new issues to be resolved. Although demographers are not in the business of practicing law, they must clearly understand the legal requirements and often subtle nuances imposed by the case law. The paper concludes that the combined force of these cases does not yet spell the end of race conscious redistricting and therefore, effectively repeal the Voting Rights Act but does require that more weight be given to traditional redistricting criteria when designing districts that will withstand legal challenges.     

Longitudinal Factor Analysis of Public Expenditure Composition and Human Development in Brazil After the 1988 Constitution

The way public policies are managed in Brazil has changed since the 1988 Federal Constitution. This study aimed to identify how changes in the structure of public expenditure composition at Brazilian federal states influenced local human development in these states. The states’ public expenditures were categorized according to their nature as spending indices whereas human development was measured through a human development index (HD). To verify the relationships between these variables, an accounting-social theoretical model was created and estimated through latent growth modeling (LGM). The LGM measurement period comprised five administration cycles of the Brazilian states (1988–2011). Variables were measured on data of the second year of state government term; their mean initial values and growth rates were recorded. Results show that, influenced by policies of centralized regulation promoted by the federal government, only the social spending growth rates had statistically significant effect on the human development growth rate, although not considered of great magnitude. Among mean initial values, the most significant was that of minimum spending (SIm), which denotes the direct impact of the Fiscal Accountability Law [Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, in Portuguese] on human development improvements. The mean initial value of economic spending also showed a positive and significant effect on HD growth rate.     

Urban dominance,ecology and community well-being in a Philippine region

There is a strong difference of opinion concerning whether the effects of urban centers are generally beneficial or deleterious to outlying communities. Based on a sample of seventy-three barrios in Cavite Province, this paper examines several basic features of community organization to determine what effects Manila's dominance exerts. The Manila-Cavite metropolitan region is further complicated by a pronounced highland—lowland division. Land tenure, occupational structure, political activity, indebtedness, and measures of community well-being give evidence of both positive and negative effects. However, Manila's dominance does not correspond to uniform gradient patterns. Due to sharp ecological differences, the impact of the city varies between highland and lowland barrios. The fairest conclusion able to be drawn from the evidence is that contact with the city is indispensible and in many ways beneficial, but these benefits are often counterbalanced by economic and social costs for certain communities.     

Attitudes Towards Saving in Polish Society During Transformation

Since 1999 the complex reform of the old-age pension system was introduced in Poland and the process of changes is still ongoing. The multi-pillar system replaced the pay-as-you-go system. Voluntary third pillar will guarantee higher pensions for those that decide to save more. However, the systemic changes were placed in the new market economy just being implemented in Poland. New economic reality involves serial of processes influencing management of the current budget. On one hand the principles of market economy impose rigorous environment for management of the disposal income while on the other the dynamically developing market of goods, services and modern banking systems create pressure to spend. The evolution of pension system naturally poses questions concerning how the savings and saving behaviour are perceived in the Polish society during economic transformation. The results of survey conducted in the end of 2004 show that the precaution and life cycle motives of saving are observable in the Polish society but restrain seems to be marginal. In addition, attitudes towards saving are varied by some demographic and socio-economic features. These findings confirm statements referring to relation between the growth in material and social standards and acceptance of consumption style of life [i.e. Katona: 1975, Psychological Economics (Elsevier, New York); Lunt and Livingston: 1992, Mass Consumption and Personal Identity (Open University Press, Buckingham)]. Poles with higher social-economic position are rejecting self-restraint shifting towards consumerism. Nevertheless, common opinion of the respondents advocated savings is in contrary with declared avoiding restraint what is in line with other authors describing attitudes towards saving in conflict [Webley and Nyhus: 2001, Everyday representation of the Economy (WUV Universitätsverlag, Wien)].     

The potential of child care tax credits to reduce poverty and welfare recipiency

As more and more mothers of young children enter the work force, interest in government financing of child care grows. The chief government subsidy for child care is the child care credit in the federal Internal Revenue Code. This is a nonrefundable credit and therefore provides benefits only to those with incomes high enough to require them to pay income tax. Yet of the $ 5.5 billion spent by the federal government on child care in 1986, this program accounted for $ 3.5 billion.This paper simulates the effects of expanding the child care tax credit by (1) doubling the reimbursement rates of the current credit; (2) making the credit refundable; and (3) both making the credit refundable and increasing its value for all families with income below $ 32,000.Results suggest that these changes will have modest effects on the income and earnings of mothers, and on the poverty gap and welfare recipiency. Costs, however, differ substantially. Doubling the value of the credit is far more expensive than either making the credit refundable or making it both refundable and more generous at the bottom of the income distribution. Making the credit refundable may cost taxpayers very little by leading to increases in hours worked and concomitant reductions in welfare payments.     

The 1990 U.S. census: how good is good enough?

The 1990 US census is likely to be the most accurate in the nation's history, but it may miss 2 or 3 million people, most of them poor and many of them black or Hispanic. Because the population census is the basis for political apportionment and determines the allocation of a growing share of federal funds to localities and public programs, undercoverage is of great concern to cities, states, and the groups most affected. The statistical methods developed to measure the extent of undercounting in the census have become increasingly reliable, but the official census count has never before been adjusted on the basis of these methods. This article describes plans for the 1990 census and examines a growing controversy over adjustment for an undercount.