Regional types of mortality order in the light of statistical analysis of main components

This is an analysis of abbreviated life tables for Polish regions for 1973 to 1975. Life tables are given for 49 voivodships by age groups, and data on average life expectancies are provided.     

Life expectancy of the population in Silesia

The author analyzes changes in average life expectancy in Silesian voivodships in Poland from 1976 to 1995. Differences according to sex, age, and place of residence are considered. (ANNOTATION)     

Changes in the geographical mobility of the population of Poland

Spatial mobility in Poland is analyzed for the period 1976-1989. The focus is on the decline in internal migration over time and its causes. The analysis includes migration between rural and urban areas as well as migration among voivodships. Factors affecting migration include changes in the age distribution; however, the authors conclude that changes in migration patterns are primarily due to socioeconomic factors, particularly the economic crises the country has faced in recent years.     

Migration in the light of Poland's 1978 national population census

Internal migration trends in Poland are reviewed for the pre-1939 and post-World War II periods using 1978 census data for voivodships.     

The evolution of life expectancy in the capital city of Warsaw in 1931-1980

The author presents estimates of life expectancy in Warsaw, Poland, by age and sex for the period 1931-1980. The estimates involve modifications of previously calculated life tables for 1931 to ensure greater compatibility with more recent estimates.     

Distribution of the random future life expectancies in log-bilinear mortality projection models

Projected life tables are obtained from forecasting methods and account for future improvements in longevity. Since the future path of mortality is unknown, working with projected life tables makes the survival probabilities stochastic. The resulting demographic indicators in turn become random variables. This paper aims to study the distribution of period and cohort life expectancies derived from projected life tables. To fix the ideas, we adopt here the standard Lee–Carter framework, where the future forces of mortality are decomposed in a log-bilinear way. Exact formulas are derived for period life expectancies, and approximations are proposed for cohort life expectancies. In the latter case, numerical illustrations based on Belgian population data show that the relative accuracy is remarkable.     

Duration of marriages in Poland

Some estimates of future marriage duration in Poland are presented. The estimates are based on the assumption that marriages will end at the death of either spouse, and these deaths are projected using 1980-1981 official life tables by sex. The tables showing the probability of marriages ending in this way are provided for various five-year age groups and take into account differences in age between husband and wife.     

ESTIMATING PROCESSES OF COUNTS FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL AGGREGATE DATA, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MULTISTATE LIFE TABLES AND HEALTH EXPECTANCIES

This paper discusses the estimation of time‐dependent probabilities of a finite state‐space discrete‐time process using aggregate cross‐sectional data. A large‐sample version of multistate logistic regression is described and shown to be useful for analysing multistate life tables. The technique is applied to the estimation of disability‐free, severely disabled and other disabled survival curves and health expectancies in Australia, based on data from national health surveys in 1988, 1993 and 1998. A conclusion is that there has been a general upward trend in the future time expected to be spent in a state of disability, the picture being more pessimistic for males than females. For example, during 1988‐1998 the estimated increase in male life expectancy at birth of 2.7 years is decomposed as a decrease of 1.2 years in disability‐free health (life) expectancy and increases of 1.3 and 2.6 years, respectively, in states of severe disability and other disability.     

An attempt at the econometric specification of the socioeconomic determinants of migratory movements and migration balance

An analysis of internal migration in Poland is presented. Models of out-migration, in-migration, and migration balance are constructed for each of the 49 voivodships for 1979. Factors affecting migration are analyzed, including per capita investment, employment, output, fixed capital, per capita retail sales, housing, social services, manufacturing payroll, school enrollment, per capita hospital beds, movie theater seats, and book publications.     

Time truncated acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution

Acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution when the lifetime experiment is truncated at a pre-determined time are provided in this article. The tables are provided for the minimum sample size required to ensure a certain median life of the experimental unit when the shape parameter is two. The operating characteristic function values of the sampling plans and the associated producer's risks are also presented. It is shown that the tables presented here can be used if instead of median life, other percentile life is chosen as the criterion or if the shape parameter is not two. Examples are provided for illustrative purposes.     

Statistical materials

Data are presented on coefficients of population reproduction, 1958-1985; infant mortality by month, 1985; and life tables, 1984-1985.     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

A progressive rise in stomach cancer-related mortality rate during 1970–1995 in Japanese individuals over 85 years of age

A large number of studies have shown a gradual fall in stomach cancer-related mortality rate during the last decade. Here we analyzed the pattern of stomach cancer-related mortality rates in Japanese aged>85 years from 1970 to 1995. We used data for the entire population of Japan. The magnitude of change was measured by relative risk and cause-elimination life tables to distinguish time trends in mortality rates of stomach cancer for individuals over 85 years of age compared with other age groups (55–84 years). In the over-85 age group, stomach cancer mortality increased from 374 in 1970 to 662 in 1995 per 100,000 (77%) for males and from 232 to 296 per 100,000 (27%) for females. Using the 55–59 years group as the reference category, the relative risk increased from 2.3 to 9.9 and from 2.8 to 11.1 in men and women, respectively. The effects of mortality on life expectancy also increased 1.5 times and 1.1 times, respectively. Our results showed a rise of stomach cancer mortality in Japanese aged over 85 years, which paralleled the increase in relative risk and negative contribution to life expectancy. While the mortality of younger age groups is decreasing, the change over from increase to decrease in the over-85 age group is only just beginning.     

Estimation of actuarial quantities at fractional ages with Kriging

ABSTRACT

Life tables used in life insurance are often calibrated to show the survival function of the age of death distribution at exact integer ages. Actuaries usually make fractional age assumptions (FAAs) when having to value payments that are not restricted to integer ages. Traditional FAAs have the advantage of simplicity but cannot guarantee to capture precisely the real trends of the survival functions and sometimes even result in a non intuitive overall shape of the force of mortality. In fact, an FAA is an interpolation between integer age values which are accepted as given. In this article, we introduce Kriging model, which is widely used as a metamodel for expensive simulations, to fit the survival function at integer ages, and furthermore use the precisely constructed survival function to build the force of mortality and the life expectancy. The experimental results obtained from a simulated life table (Makehamized life table) and two “real” life tables (the Chinese and US life tables) show that these actuarial quantities (survival function, force of mortality, and life expectancy) presented by Kriging model are much more accurate than those presented by commonly-used FAAs: the uniform distribution of death (UDD) assumption, the constant force assumption, and the Balducci assumption.     

The effect of individual variability on the life table

A general formulation of the life table in the presence of individual jeterogeneity is presented. The possible effects of heterogeneity on the various life table functions are outlined. For the case of ordinary life tables, a method is presented for the evaluation of these effects. The proposed method id illustrated by a numerical example.     

Higher female than male mortality in some countries of South Asia: a digest

A statistical study was made of sex ratios and mortality in Ceylon, Pakistan, and India. Contrary to general expectations, female mortality was higher than male mortality. A greater divergence in the sex ratio was found with increased age. Female emigration and abnormal sex ratios at birth are discounted as explanations of the phenomenon. It is considered that underenumeration of females in the census and higher female mortality rates, especially during the reproductive years and childhood, are responsible for the inverted sex ratio. The projected sex ratios for these countries are not reflected in the model life tables derived from international experience.     

A comparison of models for dynamic life tables. Application to mortality data from the Valencia Region (Spain)

The graduation of mortality data aims to estimate the probabilities of death at age x, q ( x ), by means of an age-dependent function, whose parameters are adjusted from the crude probabilities that are directly obtainable from the data. However, current life tables have a problem, the need for periodic updates due to changes in mortality over short periods of time. The table containing mortality rates for different ages in different years, q ( xt ), is called a dynamic life table, which captures mortality variation over time. This paper proposes a review of the most commonly used dynamic models and compares the results obtained by each of them when applied to mortality data from the Valencia Region (Spain). The result of the comparison leads us to the conclusion that the Lee-Carter method offers the best results for both sexes, while that based on Heligman and Pollard functions provides the best fit for men alone. Our working method is of additional interest as it may be applied to mortality data for a wide range of ages in any geographical location, allowing the most appropriate dynamic life table to be selected for the case at hand.     

Acceptance sampling based on truncated life tests for generalized Rayleigh distribution

This paper considers the problem of an acceptance sampling plan for a truncated life test when the lifetime follows the generalized Rayleigh distribution. For different acceptance numbers, confidence levels, and values of the ratio of the fixed experiment time to the specified mean life, the minimum sample sizes necessary to ensure the specified mean life are found. The operating characteristic values of the sampling plans and producer's risk are discussed. Some tables are presented and the use of the tables is illustrated by a numerical example.     

Levels and changes in the length of the economically active life of the population

Life tables for the length of an individual's working life in the USSR are presented using 1970 data for the Latvian Republic.     

The limitations of using school league tables to inform school choice

Summary. In England, so-called 'league tables' based on examination results and test scores are published annually, ostensibly to inform parental choice of secondary schools. A crucial limitation of these tables is that the most recent published information is based on the current performance of a cohort of pupils who entered secondary schools several years earlier, whereas for choosing a school it is the future performance of the current cohort that is of interest. We show that there is substantial uncertainty in predicting such future performance and that incorporating this uncertainty leads to a situation where only a handful of schools' future performances can be separated from both the overall mean and from one another with an acceptable degree of precision. This suggests that school league tables, including value-added tables, have very little to offer as guides to school choice.