Changes in the distribution and composition of the population recorded as temporary residents in the years 1978-1980

The author describes two surveys carried out in 1978 and 1980 in Poland that were concerned with temporary residence, defined as residence for more than two months. The results of the surveys are presented, including data on age, sex, and urban or rural residence.     

Adjusting the 1980 census of population and housing

"In 1980, several cities and states sued the U.S. Census Bureau to correct census results. This correction would adjust for the differential undercounting of Blacks and Hispanics, especially in cities. In this article, the authors, each of whom testified for New York City and State in their joint lawsuit against the Census Bureau, describe the likely pattern of the undercount and present a method to adjust for it." The authors describe available methods for data adjustment and introduce a regression-based composite method of adjustment, which is used to estimate the undercounts for 66 areas. "As expected, we find that the highest undercount rates are in large cities, and the lowest are in states and state remainders with small percentages of Blacks and Hispanics. Next, we analyze how sensitive our estimates are to changes in data and modeling assumptions. We find that these changes do not affect the estimates very much. Our conclusion is that regardless of whether we use one of the simple methods or the composite method and regardless of how we vary the assumptions of the composite method, an adjustment reliably reduces population shares in states with few minorities and increases the shares of large cities."     

The first complete enumeration of Papua New Guinea--the 1980 population census

"The 1980 Population Census of Papua New Guinea was the first complete enumeration of the population of the country. It was also the first census to be designed and processed within the country. This paper gives the background to the census and outlines the development and implementation of the project, concentrating on the problems encountered and the procedures developed to overcome them in this (in many ways) unique environment. The census project was a thorough exercise and recommendations are also given for the future."     

The evolution of life expectancy in the capital city of Warsaw in 1931-1980

The author presents estimates of life expectancy in Warsaw, Poland, by age and sex for the period 1931-1980. The estimates involve modifications of previously calculated life tables for 1931 to ensure greater compatibility with more recent estimates.     

The influence of migration on population growth

Methods of analyzing the relationship between migration and population growth are reviewed and evaluated, and a new method developed by the authors is presented.     

Divorces in Europe during the years 1950-1980

Data on legal divorces in more than 20 European countries are analyzed. A general trend toward higher rates of divorce is noted for the 1970s, although some countries showed declines in divorce during the 1950s, partly in contrast to the high rates observed immediately following World War II. Some explanations of recent divorce trends are attempted.     

Federal Statistics in a Complex Environment: The Case of the 1980 Census

The taking and the interpretation of something as big and as complicated as the national census is more than an exercise in statistical thinking. It involves other diverse fields such as ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. This article shows that a national census is more akin to so-called ill-structured problems. Unlike well-structured problems, the formulation of an ill-structured problem varies from field to field and from person to person, and the various aspects of an ill-structured problem (i.e., ethics, epistemology, etc.) cannot be clearly separated from one another. The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component.     

城镇化进程中-农村向城镇转移人口数量分析

农村人口向城镇转移 ,农村富裕劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移 ,是工业化和现代化的必然趋势 ,也是人口城镇化的必然趋势。改革开放以来 ,在城镇化进程中 ,我国从农村向城镇转移人口的数量一直为政府和社会各界所关注。本文基于人口普查数据 ,估计了 2 0世纪末 ,1990～2 0 0 0年我国从农村向城镇转移人口的数量 ;户口“农转非”人口数量 ,并对 2 1世纪头 2 0年 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 2 0年我国城镇人口的发展趋势 ,农村向城镇转移人口的数量 ,城乡劳动力资源分布进行了预测。　　一、农村向城镇转移人口的定义当前我国从农村向城镇转移人口的情况复杂 …     

The practice of mining gegstatistics in 1980

The scope of the term “Mining Geostatistics” is defined in the context of a brief historical review of the topic. Assumptions andtools adapted from probability theory are applied first to linear estimation problems leading to the iging” estimator and then shown capable of extension to non- ationary and non-linear situa­tions, in which conditional simulation, conditional distributions and “disjunctive Kriging” become applicable. Directions for further research work are indicated regarding variogram identification and modelling of random functions where stationarity or linearity may not hold. The brief review suggests that the mutual benefits of practice and theory will continue to develop.     

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

The rate of population growth ( u ) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate u for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of u from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates u using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of u differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that u of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.     

Comparative analysis of population age-sex distribution from sample and complete enumeration: 1970 and 1980 census data

"This paper will attempt to analyze the degree of distortion introduced by sampling, if any, on the age and sex distribution of the population based on the information taken [in the 1970 census] from the sample households. Specifically, the 1970 age and sex distribution of the Philippine population based on the 5-percent sample households will be compared with that obtained from the information supplied by all households, i.e., the actual age and sex distribution of the Philippines....Findings...suggest a failure of the estimation procedures used in past censuses to correct errors attributable to sampling. In particular, the type of sampling error highlighted in this paper is the distortion introduced by sampling in age-sex distribution."     

Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977-1990

"Projecting populations that have sparse or unreliable data, such as those of many developing countries, presents a challenge to demographers. The assumptions that they make to project data-poor populations frequently fall into the realm of ?educated guesses', and the resulting projections, often regarded as forecasts, are valid only to the extent that the assumptions on which they are based reasonably represent the past or future, as the case may be. These traditional projection techniques do not incorporate a demographer's assessment of uncertainty in the assumptions. Addressing the challenges of forecasting a data-poor population, we project the Iraqi Kurdish population using a Bayesian approach. This approach incorporates a demographer's uncertainty about past and future characteristics of the population in the form of elicited prior distributions."     

Estimates of the British Jewish population 1984-88

"During the 20th century, estimates of the British Jewish population have been obtained by applying appropriate death-rates to communal mortality data. This death-rate method has become increasingly sophisticated with respect to the death-rates used. The exercise reported here covers more than 22,000 deaths recorded in the community over the 5-year period [1984-88].... An estimate of 308,000 is suggested for the community, in which deaths-related data are augmented by information about births within the community."     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

The population policy of the USSR

Developments in population policy in the USSR are outlined in this editorial. Mention is made of achievements in lowering mortality, particularly in the 1950s and 1970s. Recently adopted pro-natalist measures are described, and the results are stated to ba a rise in the birth rate in 1983 that was sustained in 1984 and 1985. Attention is also given to policies designed to encourage labor migration in response to labor shortages in some regions.