欧洲四国家庭友好政策及效应分析

为帮助女性职工平衡工作和家庭间的冲突、促进劳动力市场和家庭生活领域中的性别平等．以北欧国家为代表的欧盟国家率先制定并实施了家庭友好政策。从政策安排看．丹麦侧重于提供儿童早期教育和公共照料服务,英国更加注重家庭津贴和税收减免政策对家庭的支持。德国侧重于为家庭提供生育假期政策安排,意大利则着重为3—6岁的儿童提供免费的学前教育。从政策效应看,儿童早期教育和公共照料服务比生育假期和家庭津贴更能促进女性就业．提高女性地位。虽然四国家庭友好政策的侧重点和政策效应均存在一定差异,但向女性的政策倾斜仍然是各国家庭友好政策最重要的共性。也是践行“社会性别主流化”理念的一次有益尝试。     

The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.     

Childcare Cash Benefits and Fertility Timing in Norway

In 1998 a new cash benefit for parents with young children was introduced in Norway. Its purpose was to provide a cash payment to parents who either preferred to care for their children at home or to compensate those who were not offered external childcare provision. It has been argued that the new policy encouraged women to stay at home with their children, possibly reducing labour supply. The policy was consequently considered gender-biased, creating reduced incentives for women to participate in the labour market and therefore encouraging a more traditional division of labour of husbands and wives. Given this background of the policy, we undertake an analysis in two parts. We ask first the question “who takes the cash benefit?” Second, by applying simple matching techniques, we ask the question “Do couples taking the benefit behave differently in terms of their fertility timing?” Using information from Norwegian registers we find that more traditional households (in a broad sense) are more likely to take the cash benefit. Those taking the benefit accelerate childbearing significantly, though the reasons why they do so varies by socio-economic groups.     

鼓励生育的政策及其效果：国际经验、回顾和展望

在已有的鼓励生育的政策中,现金补贴政策具有操作简单、作用直接、指向明确的特点,对鼓励生育有积极作用,其实施效果受补贴力度、父母受教育水平以及家庭收入等因素影响;税收优惠政策实施时间较晚,具有操作复杂、调节精细化等特点,但其作用尚未取得一致性的结论,其实施效果受育龄妇女年龄、教育水平以及家庭收入水平等因素影响;产假政策具有覆盖面广、历史悠久、制度完备等特点,对鼓励生育有积极作用,但效果较小,其实施效果受家庭收入、女性劳动供给等因素影响。国际上可供借鉴的经验包括：提高政策支持力度,及早进行干预,更容易产生效果;在干预政策的选择上,现金补贴政策可先于税收政策,产假制度可作为辅助,使政策之间形成配合;对政策进行精细化设计,如鼓励多孩和大家庭、男性产假等。     

0-3 岁托育需求影响因素研究：基于对市场与政府的期望

2016年的全面二孩政策实施效果不及预期,我国的低生育水平难以改善。生育率的高低与生育意愿息息相关,随着三孩政策的出台,幼儿的托育困境作为制约广大群众生育意愿的重要因素亟需得到关注。运用武汉市3岁以下婴幼儿父母问卷调查数据,构建二元Logit模型研究群众因素、市场因素和政府因素与家庭托育需求之间的关系。研究发现:家庭结构、家庭收入、孩子年龄、影响工作程度,母亲受教育程度,托育市场的经济性、便利性和质量以及政府的政策支持会显著影响家庭的托育需求。基于实证结果,提出政策建议:推动托育服务供给主体多元化,促进托育服务规范化发展,发展普惠性公共托育服务,提升托育服务便利性,增强家庭抚育能力。     

The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context

In this paper, we aim to assess the extent to which individual-level completed fertility varies across contexts characterized by policies supporting different gender division of labor models. We examine key labor market and care policies that shape gender relations in households and in the public domain. We also consider the role of gender norms, which can act as both a moderator and a confounding factor for policy effects. We hypothesize that, by facilitating role compatibility and reducing the gendered costs of childrearing, policies that support gender equality lead to an increase in fertility levels and to a reduction in fertility differentials by the level of education. Using individual-level data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions for 16 countries, combined with country-level data, we analyze completed fertility through multilevel Poisson’s models. We find that the national level of childcare coverage is positively associated with fertility. Family allowances, prevalence of women’s part-time employment and length of paid leaves were also found to be positively associated with completed fertility, though the associations were not statistically significant. These variables show a significant positive pattern according to education. A high number of average working hours for men are negatively associated with completed fertility and show a strong negative pattern by educational level. The prevalence of gender-egalitarian norms is highly predictive of fertility levels, yet we found no consistent evidence of a weaker association of gender-equality policies in countries where egalitarian values are less prevalent.     

Use It or Save It? Migration Background and Parental Leave Uptake in Sweden

Sweden is a welfare state with a family policy that strongly emphasizes equality without distinction by place of birth or gender. In this study, we investigate the differences in uptake of parental leave between native and immigrant mothers, and the connection to labour-market attachment. Sweden represents a unique case study, not only because of the strong effort to combine work and family for all women and men, the high level of fertility and the large presence of immigrants in the country; it also enables a detailed and sophisticated analysis based on the high-quality data derived from its population registers. We find that immigrant mothers use more parental leave benefit the first year after their child’s birth, but then fewer in the second year compared with native mothers. The differences diminish when labour-market activity is controlled for. Additionally, after a time in Sweden, immigrant mothers use leave more similarly to how native mothers do.     

Country-Specific Conditions for Work and Family Reconciliation: An Attempt at Quantification

The country-specific conditions for work and family reconciliation (family policies, labour market structures and gender norms) are believed to influence tensions between paid employment and childbearing. So far there have been very few attempts to quantify these conditions into a single measure which would allow for comparisons across countries of the magnitude of the barriers that working parents encounter. Such a quantitative index could also facilitate a quantitative investigation of the association between the macro-level conditions for work and family reconciliation and fertility at the individual level. In this paper, we seek to fill this gap by proposing a quantitative index of country-specific conditions for work and family reconciliation, which may be used, for example, in a two-level regression framework. The index takes into account all three components of the conditions for work and family reconciliation. We also perform a series of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses which verify the robustness of our assumptions and which illustrate the range of the index volatility.     

加拿大妇女劳工生育与育儿两性共同责任政策

“两性共同责任”的内涵远大于劳资关系下两性共同责任议题的范围.加拿大劳资关系下两性共同责任政策主要包括:各省产假与育婴假制度、就业保险法下全国性育婴津贴、联邦与各省育儿家庭财务支持制度、托育场所创造方案等.该政策使女性不会因为国家社会生产新生劳动力而受惩罚,有益于妇女劳工的生育与育儿.在此政策下建立法律制度使妇女在怀孕、分娩与育婴期间的工作维持与两性平等权获得保护.     

Wanting a Child Without a Firm Commitment to the Partner: Interpretations and Implications of a Common Behaviour Pattern among Norwegian Cohabitants

Further knowledge of combined birth and marriage intentions among cohabiting couples will improve our understanding of the nature of consensual unions and be important from a policy perspective. According to Norwegian surveys from 1988 and 1996, about 1/3 of the births to cohabiting couples are mistimed. Among the remainder, between 1/2 and 3/4 are to couples who at least have no intention to marry within the next couple of years. The most radical estimate, based on the most recent survey, is that there are three equally large categories of births to cohabiting couples: mistimed births, intended births to couples planning marriage, and intended births to couples with no marriage plans whatever. The 1996 survey also revealed that a clear majority of these couples who appear to want a child without planning marriage, explain this attitude partly by the less easy dissolution of a marriage. In other words, their consensual union is indeed considered different from marriage in terms of commitment and stability and they may have concerns about the quality of the relationship. There were weak indications that cohabitants with an intended birth in the absence of marriage plans were less likely than others to consider a parental break-up to be very deleterious for the child.     

Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective

The discussion on the causes of the most recent fertility decline in Europe, and in particular on the emergence of lowest-low fertility, emphasizes the relevance of cultural factors in addition to economic ones. As part of such a cultural framework, the heterogeneity of preferences concerning the “career vs. family” dichotomy has been systematized in the “Preference Theory” approach developed by Catherine Hakim. This heterogeneity in preferences, however, has so far been underinvestigated in a comparative framework. This paper makes use of comparative data from the 2004/2005 Round of the European Social Survey to test the links between individual-level preferences and both fertility outcomes and fertility intentions, in a variety of societal settings. Results confirm an association between work–family lifestyle preferences and realized fertility in a variety of European countries, while they do not show a relationship between lifestyle preferences and fertility intentions. Results further support the existence of heterogeneous patterns of association between lifestyle preferences and fertility choices among welfare regimes.     

Diverse Effects of Women’s Employment on Fertility: Insights From Italy and Poland

In this paper, we look into how country-specific factors shape the interrelationship between childbearing and women’s labor supply. To this end, we compare Italy and Poland, two low-fertility countries where the country-specific obstacles to work and family reconciliation are similarly strong but which differ in the history of women’s labor supply and the extent to which couples’ material aspirations are satisfied by men’s earnings. Our findings show that women’s employment clearly conflicts with childbearing in Italy, while in Poland women tend to combine the two activities, despite the similar difficulties they face. These results challenged the standard microeconomic explanations and point to the importance of other country-specific factors, apart from conditions for work and family reconciliation, in shaping women’s employment and fertility decisions, such as economic incentives or culturally rooted behavioral patterns. Overall, our study provides thus foundations for explaining the variation in the relationship between women’s employment and fertility in an enlarged Europe.     

生育政策调整目标实现的困境及破解--基于女性个体发展视角的分析

女性的生育行为是我国生育政策调整的落脚点,然而单纯的生育政策调整并不能对当前女性生育行为产生实质性影响。独生子女时代形塑的生育价值观念、工业经济催生的工具主义生育理性,有效地抵消了生育政策调整的预期效果。社会主义市场经济条件下,深度参与劳动力市场的女性更重视个体发展和个人价值的实现,个人与社会的关系得到强化,而与家庭的关系趋于弱化,然而生育行为易导致其个人发展陷入困境。由此,生育政策调整若要实现预期目标,需要补偿女性因生育行为所产生的损失,从社会政策体系方面构建有利于女性生育的环境,否则只是单纯地放宽生育子女数量和适度延长产假,无法激励女性生育,更无法改变女性生育于自身个体发展方面的不利现状。     

Birth Spacing in the Netherlands. The Effects of Family Composition, Occupation and Religion on Birth Intervals, 1820–1885

In this article, Dutch family reconstructions from the period 1820–1885 are analyst. Cox regression on birth intervals discloses that couples deliberately increased birth intervals already before the onset of the fertility transition. Spacing was not related to a targeted family size or to the sex composition of the family. Rather, the (temporary) burden of young, dependent children induced the parents to delay the next conception. Catholics and orthodox Protestants had shorter birth intervals than liberal Protestants, either because they rejected breastfeeding or because they were reluctant to experiment with birth spacing. Relatively long birth intervals were prevalent in the lowest social groups, whereas farmers and the self-employed middle class tended towards short intervals.     

影响生育的国外家庭政策分析

利用联合国公开发表的资料以及英国、加拿大和日本相关部门的官网信息．就低生育水平对不同国家家庭政策的影响以及有关国家对生育水平具有隐性或显性作用的家庭政策进行了分析。研究结果表明,低生育水平是有关国家态度转变的依据,态度的转变也带来了政策上的相应变化。三个国家的家庭政策具有明显的增强家庭养育子女经济实力、提升家庭照料子女能力以及促进家庭自身良性发展的作用。     

Family Policy and After-Birth Employment Among New Mothers – A Comparison of Finland, Norway and Sweden

This article compares the employmentpatterns of women after first and second birthin Finland, Norway and Sweden during 1972–1992,focusing on the impact of parental leave andchildcare programs on the transitions tofull-time and part-time work. The resultsunanimously point to the great importance ofthe programs. Women who are entitled to a paidleave have a much higher overall employmententry rate during the first three yearsfollowing birth than non-eligible women.But since mothers tend to use their fullentitlement, the higher entry rates are largelyconcentrated to the period after leave expiry,except in Sweden where entitled mothers havehigher entry rates also during the leaveperiod. This is probably a result of thegreater flexibility of the Swedish program. Inall countries, leave extensions delay thereturn to work among entitled mothers andreduce their excess entry rate. Moreover, theFinnish home-care allowance system is found toreduce employment entry. On the whole, thissuggests that very long leave entitlements andchild-minding benefit programs could havenegative consequences for women's career andearnings potentials and may preserve an unequaldivision of labour in the family.     

Contending Strategies,Collaboration among Local Specialists and Officials,and Hydrological Reform in the Late-Fifteenth-Century Lower Yangzi Delta

In response to the failing mechanisms of hydrological management in the Lower Yangzi Delta in the fifteenth century, some officials and local specialists collaborated to form a new strategy, which was in opposition to that used in the conventional practice, to solve the problems. Regular maintenance approach was adopted to replace crisis–response approach, and building polder dikes was prioritized higher than dredging major waterways. In doing so, they not only brought precedents under scrutiny to work out feasible policies but also focused on the issues of institutional coordination, fundraising, and mobilization of labor. The reform, which they carried out by redefining responsibilities of the state and the people and by redistributing duty to the influential and wealthy, enabled the state to play a more active role in hydrological management to better benefit local society.     

Like Mother(-in-Law) Like Daughter? Influence of the Older Generation’s Fertility Behaviours on Women’s Desired Family Size in Bihar,India

This paper investigates the associations between preferred family size of women in rural Bihar, India and the fertility behaviours of their mother and mother-in-law. Scheduled interviews of 440 pairs of married women aged 16–34 years and their mothers-in-law were conducted in 2011. Preferred family size is first measured by Coombs scale, allowing us to capture latent desired number of children and then categorized into three categories (low, medium and high). Women’s preferred family size is estimated using ordered logistic regression. We find that the family size preferences are not associated with mother’s fertility but with mother’s education. Mother-in-law’s desired number of grandchildren is positively associated with women’s preferred family size. However, when the woman has higher education than her mother-in-law, her preferred family size gets smaller, suggesting that education provides women with greater autonomy in their decision-making on childbearing.     

Time with Children: Do Fathers and Mothers Replace Each Other When One Parent is Unemployed?

This article aims to study the substitution of parental time between the mother and the father. Taking the “experience” of unemployment as a release from the time constraint, we analyse time transfers between partners in such a situation. A bivariate Tobit model is applied on the French time-use data. It shows that parents quite rarely substitute the time devoted to children between each other, except for child transportation and childcare. Parents do not want to relinquish their parental activities, a fact which reflects their desire to contribute to the children’s education, and the contribution of parental time to the balance of power between spouses. Exchanges remain asymmetric: non-employed fathers release less their partner from parental tasks than unemployed mothers do, which reflects the weight of gender social norms.