THE MONTE CARLO CYCLE IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY

NBER business"cycle" reference dates and aggregate economic time series are examined for evidence of regular cyclic behavior. A simple contingency table test is used on the reference dates, and aggregate series are fit with a second-order autoregression. The results are negative. Apparently the business "cycle" is an optical illusion or, as Irving Fisher called it, a "Monte Carlo cycle." These are the cycles superstitious gamblers believe govern their luck.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE MONTE CARLO CYCLE IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY

This paper tests the null hypothesis that "cycles" in business activity are merely Monte Carlo cycles. It compares the actual distribution of expansionary and contractionary phase duration times with those which would be expected under the null hypothesis. If the probability of a phase turning point is constant during a small interval of time, rather than increasing, the duration times of upswings and downswings should be exponentially distributed. Goodness of fit statistics were calculated for each phase for the post World War II time series of: five coincident indicators, inverted unemployment rate, and production index. The evidence found here supports the Monte Carlo thesis.     

A COMMON PROPERTY EXPERIMENT WITH A RENEWABLE RESOURCE

This series of three classroom experiments demonstrates the tragedy of the commons and suggests two possible solutions: communication and individual property rights. In the first and second experiments, students jointly own a renewable resource in the form of a plate of M&Ms. Communication is not allowed in the first experiment, whereas in the second experiment students may try to influence each other's desired harvest. The third experiment divides the plate to establish individual property rights.     

A SIMPLE MACROECONOMIC MODEL WITH MONOPOLISTIC FIRMS

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model in which firms' outputs are imperfect substitutes, and explores the macroeconomic implications of monopolistic competition. The model is classical in some respects, but Keynesian in others. Multiple or unstable equilibria are not unlikely. Permanent price controls will, in principle, be desirable, since they allow a permanent and efficient increase in aggregate output. Small costs of price adjustment may induce large deviations of output from the natural rate. Fiscal policy will generally affect aggregate output, but the sign and magnitude of the government expenditure multiplier cannot be determined a priori.     

EVERY DROP COUNTS: A WATER CONSERVATION EXPERIMENT WITH HOTEL GUESTS

We implement a field experiment with hotel guests to measure the effects of nonprice interventions on water conservation and customer satisfaction. In hotels, guests have no direct pecuniary incentive to conserve water, as consumers do at home, where they pay their own water bills. Because hotels earn greater profits when they manage to convince guests to conserve, guests may be suspicious of a hotel's stated social goal of water conservation. By implementing behavioral interventions that address these challenges, we find that our nudges can induce guests to reduce their water consumption, even when no direct monetary incentive is provided. Using post‐stay customer surveys, we detected no adverse effects on customer satisfaction due to these nudges. (JEL D12, I31, Q41, Q50)     

ARE PART-TIME WOMEN PAID LESS? A MODEL WITH FIRM-SPECIFIC EFFECTS

This paper uses data from a survey of child-care establishments to compare part-and full-time wages within two narrow occupations, one high skill and one low skill. Unlike previous studies, it controls for firm-specific effects. We find that when firm-specific effects are accounted for, only the low-skill workers in our sample receive lower wages for working part-time. On the other hand, when compensation is defined to include prorated fringe benefits, establishments appear to compensate both high- and low-skill part-timers at a lower hourly rate.     

A PARTIAL INDEPENDENCE ITEM RESPONSE MODEL FOR SURVEYS WITH FILTER QUESTIONS

In many surveys, responses to earlier questions determine whether later questions are asked. The probability of an affirmative response to a given item is therefore nonzero only if the participant responded affirmatively to some set of logically prior items, known as "filter items." In such surveys, the usual conditional independence assumption of standard item response models fails. A weaker "partial independence" assumption may hold, however, if an individual's responses to different items are independent conditional on the item parameters, the individual's latent trait, and the participant's affirmative responses to each of a set of filter items. In this paper, we propose an item response model for such "partially independent" item response data. We model such item response patterns as a function of a person-specific latent trait and a set of item parameters. Our model can be seen as a generalized hybrid of a discrete-time hazard model and a Rasch model. The proposed procedure yields estimates of (1) person-specific, interval-scale measures of a latent trait (or traits), along with person-specific standard errors of measurement; (2) conditional and marginal item severities for each item in a protocol; (3) person-specific conditional and marginal probabilities of an affirmative response to each item in a protocol; and (4) item information and total survey information. In addition, we show here how to investigate and test alternative conceptions of the dimensionality of the latent trait(s) being measured. Finally, we compare our procedure with a simpler alternative approach to summarizing data of this type.     

A PSYCHOEDUCATIONAL MODEL FOR WORKING WITH FAMILIES OF AUTISTIC CHILDREN*

Because of the well-documented effectiveness of paradigms which emphasize parental or family pathology in understanding and intervening with dysfunctional children, the temptation exists for applying them to other dysfunctional populations. Autism is a pervasive developmental dysfunction with life-long adverse sequelae for the child and family. This paper reviews evidence on the biological etiology of autism and other pervasive developmental deviations, and stresses the necessity for providing an early and accurate diagnosis for the family. The adverse implications of downplaying individual pathology and concentrating on parental or family dysfunction are then discussed. The natural evolution and specific components of a psychoeducational model for diagnosing autistic children and working with them and their families are then presented. Finally, some of the advantages of this multimodal, multidiscipline model in long-term work with these pervasively dysfunctional individuals and their families are considered.     

FEAR OF NOVELTY: A MODEL OF SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY WITH STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY

This paper analyzes the production of fundamental research as a coordination game played by scholars. In the model, scholars decide to adopt a new idea only if they believe that a critical mass of peers is following a similar research strategy. If researchers observe only a noisy idiosyncratic signal of the true scientific potential of a new idea, we show that the game presents a single threshold equilibrium. In this environment, fundamental research proceeds with large structural breaks followed by long periods of time in which new ideas are unsuccessful. The likelihood of a new idea emerging depends on various parameters, including the rewards of working in the old paradigm, the critical mass of researchers required to create a new school of thought and scholars' ability to properly assess the scientific value of new ideas. (JEL O31, C72, A14)     

AN INTERNATIONAL ARBITRAGE PRICING MODEL WITH PPP DEVIATIONS

This paper derives an intertemporal, international arbitrage pricing model that relaxes more assumptions than previous asset pricing paradigms. The analysis shows how risk, risk premia, and the translation of these variables between all real and nominal numeraires depend upon a small number of stochastic state variables that define the economy's production and credit opportunities. When the model is applied to the forward exchange market, it highlights the potentially central role of real exchange rates in determining the evolution of forward exchange risk premia.     

DYNAMIC TREATMENT EFFECTS OF TEACHER'S AIDES IN AN EXPERIMENT WITH MULTIPLE RANDOMIZATIONS

Using data from a large‐scale two‐stage experiment wherein students and teachers were randomized at both kindergarten entry and first grade to be sorted into classes either with or without full‐time teacher's aides, I estimate an econometric model that is uniquely suited to take advantage of this design to determine their effect on academic achievement. The identification strategy produces fully nonparametric dynamic average treatment effects for every treatment path. I find that the use of full‐time teacher's aides increases student achievement, but the benefits appear to accrue mostly to those of higher socioeconomic status and to White students. A cost‐benefit analysis shows that full‐time teacher's aides may be a competitive alternative to class size reductions in terms of net social benefits. (JEL I21, I28)     

看企业大佬如何融入艺术文化的新商业模式

近年来中国企业家参与到艺术品市场成为一个很明显的趋势,并且已超出因喜爱而收藏的范围,甚至可以说是一种有目的性的“攻掠”行为。这是否意味市场将进入到一个以艺术文化为主导的新商业运营模式？     

A SIMPLE PRINCIPAL-AGENT EXPERIMENT FOR THE CLASSROOM

In this note we describe a simple, flexible and instructive moral hazard experiment. It can be used in a variety of classes, including principles classes, to illustrate the basic incentive conflicts in principal-agent interactions, the importance of information, and the power of reputational enforcement.     

ADAPTING THE MODEL: THERAPEUTIC WORK WITH CHILDREN FROM ARMY FAMILIES

This paper describes the development of a specialised therapeutic service for parents and their young children in an inner city social services family centre. The Under five's counselling service, based on the Tavistock Model, offers brief psychoanalytic interventions to parents who are worried about their young child's development e.g. crying, eating, persistent crying etc. The premise behind setting up such a service was to provide therapeutic intervention to the parent-child relationship at the earliest possible stage, preventing further ongoing difficulties. The paper draws upon observations and interventions with families I have seen in the first year the service was opened. Particular themes which emerged in the work with these families will be highlighted. In particular a link is made between early childhood difficulties and unresolved loss in the mother's lives. Furthermore, the impact of the service upon the rest of the social services family support services is commented upon.     

THE CULTURAL CONTEXT MODEL: THERAPY FOR COUPLES WITH DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

This article offers a brief analysis of heterosexual dominance within various cultures toward a larger understanding of domestic violence. It then describes the Cultural Context Model, developed over 15 years of experience treating domestic violence in its broader context, utilizing separate "culture circles" for men and women before and during couple therapy. It then identifies guidelines for assessment and intervention with a discussion of the special issues raised when substance abuse is involved.