A study of urban population migration and urbanization in China]

Under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and UN funding, a study was undertaken to assess Chinese urban migration and urbanization. A 2% random sample was taken of 74 cities of varying densities (divided into 5 categories ranging from "especially large city" to "town") from 16 provinces. This encompassed 23,895 households, 1,643 collectives and 100,167 people. Major data include: 38% of the subjects had migrated at least once; 7.58% lived away from home for at least 1 year; 23.98% were temporarily away from home at the time of the study; 3.6% were at home. With the exception of the "especially large city," which absorbed 46.5% of urban migrants, more migrants entered "towns" than they did "large city." Migration to the "especially large city" fell from 56.6% in the 1950s to 32.5% between 1981-86, whereas migration into the other categories increased. For example, population movement into towns jumped from 12.3% in the 1950s to 28.6% in 1981-86. In all 5 categories, intra-province migration was larger than inter-province migration. Over half of the urban migrants moved from villages to towns. More men migrated to cities than women, but slightly more women than men migrated from villages to cities (due to marriage customs). 56.6% of migrants were between 15-30 years; 23.34% were workers; 21.54% were farmers. Reasons given for moving were many, but the most often cited was work related. Work related moves often meant that such migration was dictated, rather than voluntary. Also, social, economic and political upheavals directly affected the pattern of urban migration from 1949-86. Current government policy is to develop smaller cities and to limit the growth of already densely populated areas. Until cities can provide adequate housing, food and jobs for its inhabitants, governmental intervention in some areas will continue to be necessary.     

A historical survey of international migration of China population]

Chinese migration trends in various periods of China's history are discussed. From the earliest times to the present, migration patterns seem unique to each period: 1) Early period of emigration (Qin-Tang Dynasties): The earliest recorded instance of emigration occurred during the Qin dynasty when a traveler went to what is now the Philippines. In the following dynasties, even though migration was limited to religious men and merchants who went abroad and returned to China, the process of migrating was established. 2) Tang to Ming Dynasties (Self-initiated migration): Tang Dynasty records show the beginnings of Chinese residence abroad in Arabia. Land and sea travel developed further, and majority of emigres left China for political, religious or economic reasons. 3) Post-Ming Dynasty (Forced migration): This is a period beginning with the Opium War, where 2 groups, indentured servants and those who were able to purchase their own fare, emigrated as laborers because of necessity. The population on the coast, which had risen dramatically by the 1900's, was subject to war, official corruption, poverty and disease. Migration reached a peak between 1851-1875 when 1,280,000 Chinese left the country, settling mostly in Southeast Asia. Between 1847-1873, it is estimated that between 22%-64% perished along the way. 4) WWI-1949 (Motivated migration): The consequences of 2 world wars and the Great Depression were cause for another mass migration from China for political and economic reasons. This time, however, emigres were not limited to the very poor; also, a large number of overseas Chinese eventually returned to the mainland. Between 1930-34, 350,000 more Chinese returned than left. 5) Post-1949 (A new era): In the 1950s large numbers of overseas Chinese returned to the mainland. In 1978-82, over 4000 Chinese returned to Guangdong alone. A new phenomenon has appeared: migration tends to be limited to visits to relatives or to travel for pleasure or education.     

The data of 1995 1 percent sample population survey in Shanghai

A 1% sample survey was conducted in Shanghai during October 1995. Findings indicate that de jure population was 14.135 million people vs. 13.34 million people in 1990 (an increase of 0.795 million). Part of the increase in population (0.455 million people) during 1990-95 is due to changes in definition of the de jure population. In 1995, de jure means residents of the city for 6 months or more compared with the 1990 requirement of at least 12 months' residency. Natural population growth and net migrants accounted for 0.34 million of the increase in population during 1990-95. The birth rate was 5.75/1000 population in 1995 in Shanghai, or 81,200 births. The death rate was 7.05/1000 population, or 99,600 deaths. The natural rate of growth was a negative 0.13% or a decline of 18,400 population. Households numbered 4.394 million. Average household size was 3.13 members. 12.454 million people out of the total of 14.135 million people held household registration in Shanghai. Han ethnic groups comprised 99.48% of Shanghai's population, or 14.061 million people. The Han population declined by 0.06% during 1990-95. Other minority populations comprised 74,000 people. 11.838 million were township population. The proportion of township population increased from 66.73% in 1990 to 83.75% in 1995. The number of people who received a higher education reached 9045 people, which was an increase of 1508 people during 1990-95. Population with at least 12 years of education numbered 21,007 people, an increase of 1489 people during 1990-95. 34,395 had 9 years of education, and 21,905 had 6 years of education. The illiterate or semiliterate population over 15 years of age numbered 989,000 people, which was 7.0% of the total city population or a decline of 4 percentage points during 1990-95.     

Estimation of sample size of population survey]

Depending on the different purposes of population surveys, different sample sizes are required for accurate results. Using statistical methods, sample sizes for different types of population surveys for the Chinese population are estimated. Thus, to insure at least 90% accuracy, a sample size of 830,000 is required for marriage and birth rates and a sample size of 7.8 million for population age distribution. For population surveys on age specific death rates, a sample size of 56.32 million is required for a 1-year retrospective study and a sample size of 11.26 million required for a 5-year retrospective study. In the past, certain population studies were undertaken with no consideration for sampling errors. Sample sizes for surveys on age specific death rates and population age distribution were too small, leading to results that did not represent the total population. On the other hand, sample sizes for marriage and birth conditions were too large, resulting in waste in manpower, materials, and time. Statistical calculations are given.     

Tracking rural-to-urban migration in China: Lessons from the 2005 inter-census population survey

We examined migration in China using the 2005 inter-census population survey, in which migrants were registered at both their place of original (hukou) residence and at their destination. We find evidence that the estimated number of internal migrants in China is extremely sensitive to the enumeration method. We estimate that the traditional destination-based survey method fails to account for more than a third of migrants found using comparable origin-based methods. The ‘missing’ migrants are disproportionately young, male, and holders of rural hukou. We find that origin-based methods are more effective at capturing migrants who travel short distances for short periods, whereas destination-based methods are more effective when entire households have migrated and no remaining family members are located at the hukou location. We conclude with a set of policy recommendations for the design of population surveys in countries with large migrant populations.     

The age composition of the urban population of China: its changes and trends]

The authors examine projected future trends in Chinese urban population characteristics using data from a 1975 survey of 400,000 individuals from over 60 cities. Changes in the relative sizes of the age groups 0-16 years, 17-55 years, and over 56 years in 1976, 1985, and 1995 are considered by sex, and the implications of these changes for urban planning are examined.     

Male attitudes toward abortion: An analysis of urban survey data

Utilizing data from Edmonton Area Surveys of 1977, 1984, and 1987, this paper examines the attitudes of Canadian men toward the contentious issue of abortion. Respondents were presented with various different circumstances for abortion and asked to indicate the conditions in which they feel women ought to or ought not to be allowed to obtain a legal abortion. Findings reveal that attitudes toward abortion vary greatly depending upon the criteria for abortion. Endangering the mother's health elicited the most favourable attitude toward abortion between 1977 and 1987. The findings also depict a slight trend toward greater opposition to legalized abortion on the grounds of possible birth defect, while the approval of legal abortion on the grounds of rape increased marginally during the ten-year period. The paper goes further to examine socio-demographic variations in attitudes toward abortion. Some of the neglected issues that will likely make future Canadian abortion legislation impotent are also discussed.     

Cohort disaggregation analysis of fertility data from a sample survey

Social differentials in cumulative fertility revealed by field surveys in a number of countries typically have been interpreted with the implicit assumption that the timing of childbearing within the reproductive period remains constant. However, the reproductive histories that have been collected in such surveys provide a largely unexploited source of data for the analysis of trends in timing. An analysis by birth cohort of the fertility experience of 592 ever-married women surveyed in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in 1966 shows that significant changes in timing have occurred. Women in the more recent birth cohorts are distinguished by earlier childbearing and sustained higher fertility in consecutive age periods. The inter-cohort differences remain when adjustments are made for duration of time in legal and consensual unions.     

杭州市老年人口休闲状况调查与分析——基于一个小样本的分析

改善老年人口的休闲状况是提高他们生活水平的重要方面,完善老年人口群体的休闲设施也是丰富“住在杭州”内涵的内在要求。本文通过抽样调查,了解到杭州老年人口注重提高休闲生活质量,且休闲种类多样化,并已经向现代转变,但休闲形态仍属于传统型。本文提出了要立足未来老年人的需求,有效服务于老年人口群体和积极开发“银色资源”,必须加快社区建设。     

中国城市流动人口影响因素的定量研究

利用公安部 1996年流动人口统计数据和国家统计局 1996年国民经济和社会发展统计数据 ,对中国城市流动人口的影响因素进行研究发现 :(1)城市流动人口规模与市区从业人口、市区个体劳动者人数、市区国内生产总值、市区工业总产值、市区利税总额、市区固定资产投资总额、市区社会消费品零售总额、市区实际利用外资金额和市区职工年平均工资相关显著 ;与市区人口、市区非农业人口、市区第二产业从业人员比重、市区第三产业从业人员比重、市区百元资金实现利税和市区客运总量相关不显著 ;与地区人口呈负相关。 (2 )流动人口超过 5 0万以上的城市 ,其流动人口规模与市区的社会经济因素回归效果较好 ,回归方程可以用于预测     

[A preliminary analysis of the migration of urban populations in China].]

The author presents an analysis of migration of urban populations from 1951 to 1986 in China. Size and direction of urban migrant populations and the reasons for migration are included. The rural-urban migration is described as relatively stable in size and controlled by national political factors, economic conditions, and an urban population growth policy.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.     

The problem of the aged population in China]

The situation regarding the population of China over age 60 is reviewed. From 1953 to 1980 the aged population doubled in size, with the population in urban areas growing at a faster rate than in rural areas. The author notes that declining birth and mortality rates and longer life expectancy will cause the absolute number of the aged to increase. For China, each percentage point increase in the aged means an increase of 10 million aged people. As the ratio of the aged to the rest of the society becomes increasingly larger, China will become an aged society. Tables on age distribution and life expectancy are included.     

Marital migration of the rural population in Beijing suburbs]

The recent increase in marital migration in China among the rural population of the Beijing suburbs is examined, with a focus on the impact of uneven economic developments in villages and of different rates of population growth and distribution, fertility, and sex ratios. Findings are based on a survey of 1981 marriage patterns in a number of Beijing suburban communes. It is found that slightly over 50 percent of the women married within their communes, less than 20 percent married men from other suburban communes, and the remainder married outside the communes. The author observes that more women than men have migrated into the Beijing area and that marriage has been a major determinant of this movement.     

[Discussion on improvement of population statistics in cities and towns in China].]

Inconsistencies in available population statistics for China's cities and towns are described. The author suggests improving these statistics by clarifying the definition of urban population and applying modern statistical methods to data collection and analysis.     

A brief analysis on the survey of the present population situation of the Miao nationality in Sichuan Province]

The Miao nationality is a minority in China which has a total population of 5.03 million. In Sichuan Province, the Miao population is about 130,000, representing approximately 4% of the entire Miao population. In 1981 and 1982, surveys were conducted to investigate the Miao population. Results from these surves are summarized as follows: (1) The age structure of the Miao nationality is young, and the percentage of young people is high. A large number of children who were born in the 1960s and 1970s have now reached the age for marriage, a new high point of births will be created soon, and family planning will become a very urgent problem; (2) Fertility is very high, about 5.05 children for each married woman; (3) Marriage between close relatives is rather popular and this custom is harmful to the next generation, and the rate for abnormal babies and deaths is rising; (4) A popular belief which exits among the Miao people is that more children represent good fortune for the parents. It is quite obvious that urgent work is needed in order to develop family planning in the areas inhabited by the Miao people. Both the quantity and quality of the Miao nationality should be adjusted in order to cope with a changing world.     

Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.     

The use of the 1982 China Census data]

Compared with the 1953 and 1964 census, the census in 1982 included more items, and computer technology was used extensively in the analysis of the census data. Census results were used to provide guidance for population control and socio-economic development programs. 3 large scale conference were held on the census, and papers presented at the first conference were published in both English and Chinese. Numerous books and papers were published based on the analysis of the census data. These include "China: Population and Geography," "Population and Employment in China in the Year 2000," and a series of 32 volumes entitled "China's Population." In addition, 3 major projects were undertaken: 1) the compilation of "the Population Atlas of China," 2) development of "Regional Model Life Tables in China", and 3) the development of computer software entitled "Demographic Analysis System." The results of the projects are satisfactory, and the outcome of the first 2 projects will be published both in China and overseas. Even though there has been great improvement in the utilization of data in the 1982 census from the 2 previous censuses, something are still, left to be desired. For the fourth census in 1990, it is important to consider the analysis and utilization of data in the planning stage. More detailed data should be published. Training workshops should be undertaken, enabling more people to use computers for data analysis. International collaborations should be further developed, as needed.     

The application of electronic computers in processing population census data]

This is an explanatory essay concerning the use of computers in processing census data. The article focuses on the steps involved in transforming raw data into machine-readable form. The geographical focus of the study is on China.