Ecologically unequal exchange,recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study

This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the “vertical flow” of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade.     

Decoupling reconsidered: Does world society integration influence the relationship between the environment and economic development?

This study advances scholarship on environment and development by examining whether nations more embedded in the pro-environmental world society are more or less likely to experience a relative decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions over time. The authors calculate a network centrality measure using national-level membership data on environmental international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs), and then employ the measure to create four subsamples of nations that are relatively more or less integrated in the environmental world society. The authors use interactions between measures of economic development and time in two-way fixed effects models to estimate the potentially changing effects of development on carbon emissions for the four subsamples of nations from 1970 to 2009. Results indicate that nations that are the most embedded in the environmental world society experienced a moderate decrease through time in the effect of development on carbon emissions, while the effect of development on emissions increased through time in the most peripheral nations.     

Too much of a good thing? Economic growth and human rights, 1960 to 2010

Despite widespread belief in the benefits of economic growth, some scholars emphasize the potentially negative consequences of growth—and especially rapid growth—for social and political outcomes. Using data for 149 countries between 1960 and 2010, I analyze the effect of economic growth on fundamental human rights conditions. Dynamic random-effects and two-way fixed-effects estimators, both with and without instrumental variables, yield several conclusions. First, economic growth is causally prior to rights conditions. Second, economic growth has a modest positive effect on human rights, albeit with diminishing returns at high growth rates. Third, low-income countries account for much of this relationship: growth improves rights conditions for most low-income countries, but extremely rapid growth is inimical. Growth has little effect among middle-income countries, while for high-income countries the relationship is positive but not robust. I bring these findings to bear on long-standing debates between proponents and critics of modernization theory.     

中俄经贸合作前景分析

从长远来看,俄罗斯与中国及亚洲各国关系的发展进程最终取决于经贸关系的发展水平和由此产生的相互经济利益的依存度。根据近几年来出现的新情况与发展态势可以看到,中俄经贸合作将迎来一个重要的机遇期,这突出表现在有利于中俄经贸合作的因素不断增加：经过十多年的努力,中俄两国政治关系取得了明显进展;在重大问题上相互协调与支持,两国存在长期的共同战略依托;两国关系更加务实,特别重视经贸合作的发展;两国经济快速发展,对经贸合作将产生积极影响;能源合作有新的进展;边境与地区间经贸合作尚有很大潜力。     

中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁——基于动态化分类方法的考察

本文使用1985-2006年53个国家人均GDP数据和制成品出口数据,运用动态化分类方法,考察了中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁。本文发现:(1)在过去二十多年中,同其他经济体一样,中国制成品出口的技术结构仍然主要遵循比较优势原则发生变迁;(2)尽管中国制成品出口的技术结构已得到大幅度提升,但是中国目前依然没有摆脱以低技术制成品出口为主导的局面。基于世界制成品出口技术结构的演进规律,本文预计,在未来一段时期内,中国低技术制成品的出口份额将继续下降,中偏下技术制成品的出口份额不会大幅上升,甚至有可能开始小幅回落,中等、中偏上技术制成品的出口份额会表现不俗,高技术制成品的出口份额也会有所提升,但大幅提升的可能性很小。当然,出口技术结构升级的道路并不平坦,依然充满着挑战。     

中国现代性的特征(下)

本文尝试探讨中国现代性的特征,认为中国现代性应当有属于自身的独特标志即特征,这构成中国现代学的焦点性问题之一。陈独秀对“近代文明之特征”的思考及英国社会学家吉登斯有关“现代性”的“动力品质”的分析值得借鉴。中国现代性具有五个显著特征:(1)地球模式的引进表明中国人的宇宙模式发生巨变:从“天地之中”转到地球之一国;(2)民族协同观的生成显示了中华民族与地球上其他民族之间的关系发生改变:从上等民族到世界多民族之一员;(3)制度转型论的实施显示中国从古典文化帝国转变为现代民族国家,并建立起相应的社会制度;(4)道器互动说体现了生活价值层级的改变:从以道制器到道与器之间的相互依赖和作用;(5)人权说的形成标志着中国人的个体人生体验发生改变:从帝国臣民到国家公民,以及随之而来的多重选择的困窘。     

中国现代性的特征(上)

本文尝试探讨中国现代性的特征,认为中国现代性应当有属于自身的独特标志即特征,这构成中国现代学的焦点性问题之一。陈独秀对“近代文明之特征”的思考及英国社会学家吉登斯有关“现代性”的“动力品质”的分析值得借鉴。中国现代性具有五个显著特征:(1)地球模式的引进表明中国人的宇宙模式发生巨变:从“天地之中”转到地球之一国;(2)民族协同观的生成显示了中华民族与地球上其他民族之间的关系发生改变:从上等民族到世界多民族之一员; (3)制度转型论的实施显示中国从古典文化帝国转变为现代民族国家,并建立起相应的社会制度;(4)道器互动说体现了生活价值层级的改变:从以道制器到道与器之间的相互依赖和作用;(5)人权说的形成标志着中国人的个体人生体验发生改变:从帝国臣民到国家公民,以及随之而来的多重选择的困窘。     

试论中国对周边国家的公共外交

周边国家是中国重要的战略依托,中国一直秉持“与邻为善,以邻为伴”的周边外交方针,维护了周边地区的稳定,发展了周边国家间的互利合作关系,深化了地区国家间的共同利益。但中国与周边国家间的关系也并不是一帆风顺的,特别是随着全球形势复杂而深刻的变化,中国的周边地区也在经历着复杂而深刻的演变。开展对周边国家的公共外交,有助于化解中国与周边国家民众间的敌对情绪,消除“中国威胁论”在周边国家的影响,增强中国与周边国家的友好互信。     

Social welfare support and homicide: Longitudinal analyses of European countries from 1994 to 2010

The purpose of this research is to explore the extent to which retrenchment in welfare support is related to homicide trends across European countries between 1994 and 2010. Using a longitudinal decomposition design that allows for stronger causal inferences compared to typical cross-sectional designs, we examine these potential linkages between social support spending and homicide with data collected from a heterogeneous sample of European nations, including twenty Western nations and nine less frequently analyzed East-Central nations, during recent years in which European nations generally witnessed substantial changes in homicide rates as well as both economic prosperity and fiscal crisis. Results suggest that even incremental, short-term changes in welfare support spending are associated with short-term reductions in homicide—specifically, impacting homicide rates within two to three years for this sample of European nations.     

试论东盟国家文化与中华文化的共生包容性发展

东盟国家的文化在其产生和发展过程中和中华文化有着持久的共生与包容性关系。东盟成立前东南亚国家的文化与中华文化共生并包容发展以完善自己多元、开放的文化结构。东盟成立后,外交与经济合作、以孔子学院为主的教育合作、通信技术和信息网络建立起的文化传媒等渠道,进一步加强并推动了东盟国家文化与中华文化的共生-包容性发展进程。在全球化的趋势下,东盟国家在与中华文化共生互容过程中将不断加强各国之间的内在联系,以完善东盟多元而不失特色的文化体征,加强国家的文化内力。     

Women’s status and carbon dioxide emissions: A quantitative cross-national analysis

Global climate change is one of the most severe problems facing societies around the world. Very few assessments of the social forces that influence greenhouse gas emissions have examined gender inequality. Empirical research suggests that women are more likely than men to support environmental protection. Various strands of feminist theory suggest that this is due to women’s traditional roles as caregivers, subsistence food producers, water and fuelwood collectors, and reproducers of human life. Other theorists argue that women’s status and environmental protection are linked because the exploitation of women and the exploitation of nature are interconnected processes. For these theoretical and empirical reasons, we hypothesize that in societies with greater gender equality there will be relatively lower impacts on the environment, controlling for other factors. We test this hypothesis using quantitative analysis of cross-national data, focusing on the connection between women’s political status and CO₂ emissions per capita. We find that CO₂ emissions per capita are lower in nations where women have higher political status, controlling for GDP per capita, urbanization, industrialization, militarization, world-system position, foreign direct investment, the age dependency ratio, and level of democracy. This finding suggests that efforts to improve gender equality around the world may work synergistically with efforts to curtail global climate change and environmental degradation more generally.     

伊斯兰世界:国际恐怖主义的宗教民族因素分析

冷战后国际恐怖主义多在伊斯兰世界出现,除了有西方霸权主义这个根本的现实原因外,还有一定的宗教民族根源:恐怖主义者曲解伊斯兰教中的圣战意识,为其暴力倾向提供理论依据;伊斯兰教现实中教派林立、政教合一,容易给恐怖主义提供生存的空间;伊斯兰世界民族主义运动合法斗争途径被堵塞的现状,容易为恐怖主义者利用。但"国际恐怖主义"绝对不等同于"伊斯兰主义",只有当西方放弃对伊斯兰世界的霸权主义政策,伊斯兰教得到全面理解的时候,才能从根本上根除国际恐怖主义的宗教民族根源。     

Perception vs. reality: The relationship between low-income homeownership, perceived financial stress, and financial hardship

This research examines how homeowners and renters were impacted by the financial crisis in 2009. We build from the hypothesis that homeownership provides people a sense of stability which decreases the extent to which they feel stressed as a result of financial hardship. Our study tests whether owning a home affected either the degree to which lower-income households experienced financial hardship or the extent to which they perceived they were financially stressed. Using a sample of lower-income borrowers who obtained affordable mortgages through the Community Advantage Program (CAP) and a comparison panel of renters, we collected data on the effects of the financial crisis. From a portfolio performance standpoint, CAP loans have performed relatively well. Our analysis of the survey data finds that, although both renters and owners experienced similar levels of financial hardship, the homeowners were less psychologically stressed overall and reported feeling more satisfied with their financial situation.     

经济全球化对社会主义文化的影响

经济全球化条件下的不同社会制度国家间的文化交流必然是发达资本主义国家占优势 ,他们通过经济活动、信息技术和国家互联网等手段输出西方文化 ,企图从意识形态上动摇社会主义国家 ,对此应有正确的认识和对策     

增长、分配与社会分化--对拉丁美洲国家社会贫富分化问题的考察

最近50多年来,拉丁美洲地区各国经历了经济增长、贫富分化、分配不公、贫困加剧、经济低迷、社会冲突、政治动荡的发展变迁历程。拉美地区工业化、现代化进程中的这些矛盾、问题和困境,被称为“拉美现象”。在过去的50年间,拉美地区经济上经历了前30年的经济增长和后20年的经济衰退时期,政治上经历了由军事独裁走向民主政治的变迁过程。但不论经济、政治情况如何变化,分配不公、贫富分化、贫困加剧、社会动荡的局面一直未得到改变或好转。拉美地区长期贫富分化、社会冲突的原因很多,但社会财富长期过于集中,城市就业矛盾突出,社会保障政策不公和国家社会控制能力弱化是其深层原因。     

论开放与开放观念

由于自然条件、社会条件的不同以及各种具体的历史原因，不同的国家和民族在发展与进步中出现了差异，这种差异在当代显得更加明显与突出。一个国家或民族，要想在今天获得迅速发展与长足进步，就必须树立开放观念，实行开放政策，把国门、省门、地区的门打开，引入所缺的资金、科学技术与现代化管理，以弥补自己的不足，只有如此，方可加快发展的步伐，否则，夜郎自大，闭门建设，就会延缓历史发展的进程。     

经济增长、FDI来源与中国环境污染——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

以经济增长和环境污染的关系为基础,考察对外开放对环境污染以及二者关系的影响,分解不同FDI(Foreign Direct Investment)来源对环境污染的边际影响。利用1998—2003年中国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,以四种工业污染物排放量两类环境质量衡量指标为因变量,对影响环境污染的各因素进行实证检验,结果发现:所考察的各工业污染物的排放均符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,环境库兹涅茨曲线的形状以及污染拐点的位置与污染物的选择和环境质量衡量指标的选择有关,根据污染排放量指标计算的污染拐点远大于根据污染排放强度指标计算的污染拐点;对大部分污染排放物不同的环境质量衡量指标而言,对外开放对环境污染虽然很小,但统计上还是有显著的影响,这在一定程度上支持了污染避难所假说在中国的成立;不同的FDI来源对中国环境污染具有不同的影响,对大多数污染物而言,来自港澳台的FDI对环境质量具有显著的负面影响,而来自其他国家的FDI则对中国的环境污染没有明显的影响。     

Towards climate justice: How do the most vulnerable weigh environment–economy trade-offs?

The world’s poor are especially vulnerable to environmental disasters, including the adverse consequences of climate change. This creates a challenge for climate justice advocates who seek to ensure that those least responsible for causing climate change do not bear unwanted burdens of mitigation. One way to promote climate justice could be to pay particular attention to the environmental policy preferences of citizens from poorer, lower-emitting countries. This paper examines opinions on environment–economy trade-offs and willingness to make personal financial contributions to protect the environment among residents of 42 developed and developing countries using data from the 2005–2008 World Values Survey, the 2010 Climate Risk Index, and World Bank development indicators. Results reveal that individuals in developing countries are less likely to support policies to prioritize environmental protection over economic growth but are more willing to donate personal income for pro-environmental efforts compared to citizens of more developed nations.     

政府研发投入规模的国际比较

文章以部分发达国家和新兴工业化国家为代表,对政府研发投入规模进行了国际比较。政府研发投入是带动整个国家研发投入,增强科技实力与经济增长的重要手段。国际经验表明,政府研发投入的规模决定了一国的科研投入水平,新兴工业化国家在科技追赶阶段,更需要政府投入的研发经费的超速增长。而我国目前政府研发投入的强度很低,与我国的经济实力乃至我国目前的经济社会发展战略很不相称。要实现产业结构的转型,提高政府研发投入强度已是迫在眉睫的任务。     

Getting support in polarized societies: Income,social networks,and socioeconomic context

This paper explores how unequal resources and social and economic polarization affects the size of social networks and their use to access resources. We argue that individual resource position generates divergent expectations with regard to the impact of polarization on the size of networks on one hand, and their usefulness for accessing resources on the other. Social and economic polarization encourages reliance on informal networks, but those at the bottom of the social structure are forced to rely on more extensive networks than the wealthy to compensate for their isolated and underprivileged position. At the same time, social and economic polarization limits the resources the poor can access through their networks. We provide evidence consistent with these propositions, based on data derived from the International Social Survey Programme 2001 “Social Networks” dataset combined with contextual information on the levels of economic inequality in particular countries along with whether they experienced postcommunism.