Psychological and cultural factors in the process of occupational achievement

An eight-equation model embodies the hypothesis that cultural differences among ethnic-religious groups give rise to differences in psychological dispositions, which, though not directly observable, influence occupational achievement, directly or via educational attainment, while being subject to feedback from one or the other of these endogenous variables. Dispositions are reflected in three fallible indicators, constructed from items in a survey interview of native white men in the Detroit area; the survey also secured socioeconomic measures and an estimate of intelligence. The model is block recursive and over-identified. Parameter estimates are secured by a sequence of ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares procedures, after solving out the structural equations to eliminate the unobservable variables. Numerical results do not strongly support the “Protestant Ethic” theory of achievement, but do suggest that the influence of education on occupation is mediated by motivational as well as cognitive and institutional factors.     

Residualization is not the answer: Rethinking how to address multicollinearity

Here I show that a commonly used procedure to address problems stemming from collinearity and multicollinearity among independent variables in regression analysis, “residualization”, leads to biased coefficient and standard error estimates and does not address the fundamental problem of collinearity, which is a lack of information. I demonstrate this using visual representations of collinearity, hypothetical experimental designs, and analyses of both artificial and real world data. I conclude by noting the importance of examining methodological practices to ensure that their validity can be established based on rational criteria.     

Does the unemployment rate affect the divorce rate? An analysis of state data 1960-2005

We analyzed data from 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1960 to 2005 to study how the unemployment rate and the divorce rate are related. Unemployment is positively related to divorce in a bivariate analysis, but the association is not significant when state and year fixed effects are included in the statistical model. When the sample is divided into time periods, unemployment is negatively and significantly associated with divorce after 1980. These findings provide the strongest support for a “cost of divorce” perspective and suggest that a high rate of unemployment decreases the rate of divorce, net of unobserved time-invariant state characteristics and period (year) trends.     

Extended household transitions, race/ethnicity, and early childhood cognitive outcomes

Beyond mothers’ union status transitions, other adults’ transitions into and out of the household contribute to family instability, particularly in early childhood. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort (N ≅ 8550), this study examines associations between extended household transitions and age 2 cognitive development. A substantial minority of toddlers experiences these transitions, and their consequences vary by household member type, entry versus exit, and race/ethnicity. Extended household transitions predict lower cognitive scores for white children, but the selection of low-socioeconomic status families into extended households explains these disparities. Grandparent transitions predict significantly higher cognitive scores for African American and Latino children than whites, and some “other adult” transitions predict higher scores for Latinos than African Americans and whites. Extended household transitions’ consequences are independent of co-occurring residential moves and partner transitions. Findings suggest that studying extended household transitions is useful for understanding children’s early development, and their consequences vary by race/ethnicity.     

Modeling repeated measures of dichotomous data: Testing whether the within-person trajectory of change varies across levels of between-person factors

In this paper, we consider the following question for the analysis of data obtained in longitudinal panel designs: How should repeated-measures data be modeled and interpreted when the outcome or dependent variable is dichotomous and the objective is to determine whether the within-person rate of change over time varies across levels of one or more between-person factors? Standard approaches address this issue by means of generalized estimating equations or generalized linear mixed models with logistic links. Using an empirical example and simulated data, we show (1) that cross-level product terms from these models can produce misleading results with respect to whether the within-person rate of change varies across levels of a dichotomous between-person factor; and (2) that subgroup differences in the rate of change should be assessed on an additive scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the probability of disease) rather than on a multiplicative scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the odds of disease). Because usual approaches do not provide a significance test for whether the rate of additive change varies across levels of a between-person factor, sample differences in the rate of additive change may be due to sampling error. We illustrate how standard software can be used to estimate and test whether additive changes vary across levels of a between-person factor.     

Are Interactional Behaviors Exhibited When the Self-Reported Health Question is Asked Associated with Health Status?

The self-reported health question summarizes information about health status across several domains of health and is widely used to measure health because it predicts mortality well. We examine whether interactional behaviors produced by respondents and interviewers during the self-reported health question-answer sequence reflect complexities in the respondent’s health history. We observed more problematic interactional behaviors during question-answer sequences in which respondents reported worse health. Furthermore, these behaviors were more likely to occur when there were inconsistencies in the respondent’s health history, even after controlling for the respondent’s answer to the self-reported health question, cognitive ability, and sociodemographic characteristics. We also found that among respondents who reported “excellent” health, and to a lesser extent among those who reported their health was “very good,” problematic interactional behaviors were associated with health inconsistencies. Overall, we find evidence that the interactional behaviors exhibited during the question-answer sequence are associated with the respondent’s health status.     

Can Weighting Compensate for Nonresponse Bias in a Dependent Variable? An Evaluation of Weighting Methods to Correct for Substantive Bias in a Mail Survey among Dutch Municipalities

Due to a lack of pertinent data, little is known about nonresponse in substantive, generally “dependent” variables and its consequences. However, in a study on policy performance of Dutch municipalities, we were fortunately able to gather performance data for respondents and nonrespondents from independent sources. Our study shows that very successful and very unsuccessful municipalities respond least, while intermediately successful municipalities respond most. In our opinion, this “curvilinear” relationship between performance and nonresponse can be interpreted as an interaction effect between interest in the topic of research and evaluation apprehension. As a consequence, the relationships between variables are also biased. To correct for this bias we made several weighting attempts. Weighting adjustment is based on the assumption of equal response probabilities. Our study, however, shows that this assumption is not met. Furthermore, our results indicate that weighting by one or two independent variables does not lead to better results, no more than weighting by policy performance alone. Interestingly, only weighting by a dependent and independent variable in combination leads to acceptable results, but only if weighting factors are not trimmed down too strongly and combination of weighting classes is limited.     

Similarity in peer college preferences: New evidence from texas

In this paper, I use survey data from high school students in Texas to examine the magnitude of peer correlation in college preferences and choices. In this survey, respondents (and their classmates) recorded their preferences for attending specific colleges, and a follow up survey recorded their college enrollment decisions. This paper uses this information to present the first empirical examination of whether individuals who report preferences for “popular” colleges are more likely to attend their preferred college. The rich data set allows the use of often unavailable information such as distance to college, and the construction of the “popularity” variable allows the use of school-level fixed effects. Results indicate that individuals with 10 percentage points more classmates with matching college preferences are 3 percentage points more likely to enroll in their preferred college.     

Situational determinants of reward allocation: The equity-equality equilibrium model

We conducted a vignette survey to investigate the effects of situational factors—such as a group’s size, the amount of status differentiation among its members, and the type of task on which they work—on respondents’ reports of the “fair allocation” of resources to members of status-heterogeneous task groups. We argue that to the degree that situational factors make productivity, status and competence more relevant, allocators will increase the weight of equity compared to equality, and to the degree that they make the maintenance of positive relations among members relevant, allocators will decrease the weight of equity compared to equality. Each vignette described members of a status-unequal work group with three, four, or five members. We use status characteristics theory to calculate status inequality for each group. Groups’ tasks were described as either regular or temporary, requiring either interdependent or independent relations between coworkers, and involving routine or nonroutine working conditions. Participants from the United States and from Turkey read a series of vignettes and for each wrote what they thought was the fairest salary for each group member. Using reward expectations theory, our balance model and reported allocations, we estimate empirically the weight of equity for respondents and vignettes. All of the situational factors we identify do affect the equity-equality balance, though some only in interactions. We demonstrate that our balance model of distributive justice provides a useful instrument to capture these effects.     

Choosing race: Multiracial ancestry and identification

Social scientists have become increasingly interested in the racial identification choices of multiracial individuals, partly as a result of the federal government’s new “check all that apply” method of racial identification. However, the majority of work to date has narrowly defined the population of multiracial individuals as the “biracial” children of single-race parents. In this article, we use the open-ended ancestry questions on the 1990 and 2000 5% samples of the US Census to identify a multiracial population that is potentially broader in its understanding of multiraciality. Relative to other studies, we find stronger historical continuity in the patterns of hypodescent and hyperdescent for part-black and part-American Indian ancestry individuals respectively, while we find that multiple-race identification is the modal category for those of part-Asian ancestry. We interpret this as evidence of a new, more flexible classification regime for groups rooted in more recent immigration. Our results suggest that future work on multiracial identification must pay closer attention to the varied histories of specific multiracial ancestry groups.     

Explaining discrepant findings in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses: An application to U.S. homicide rates

Cross-sectional studies often reach different conclusions regarding the association between key explanatory variables and outcomes than those of longitudinal approaches. This study considers possible explanations for discrepant findings using a decomposition approach with panel data on 404 U.S. counties for the period 1970–1999. The analysis establishes that there are important differences in the effects of independent variables on homicide rates across counties as opposed to within counties over time. Explanations offered for these discrepancies are that variables may have differing temporary (flow) and permanent (stock) influences on outcomes and possible omitted variable bias. The findings highlight the importance of distinguishing among possible stock and flow effects and are significant not only for the study of crime but also for other social phenomena.     

The “new” military and income inequality: A cross national analysis

Military expenditures have escalated over the last three decades in both developed and less developed countries, without a corresponding expansion of military personnel. Spending has instead been directed towards hi-tech weaponry, what we refer to as the “new” military. We hypothesize that this new, increasingly capital-intensive military is no longer a pathway of upward mobility or employer of last resort for many uneducated, unskilled, or unemployed people, with significant consequences for those individuals and society as a whole. One such consequence, we argue, is an increase in income inequality. We test this hypothesis with cross-national panel models, estimated for 82 developed and less developed countries from 1970 to 2000. Findings indicate that military capital-intensiveness, as measured by military expenditures per soldier, exacerbates income inequality net of control variables. Neither total military expenditures/GDP nor military participation has a significant effect. It appears from these findings that today’s “new” military establishment is abrogating its historical role as an equalizing force in society, with important policy implications.     

Institutionalizing shame: The effect of Human Rights Committee rulings on abuse, 1981-2007

What motivates compliance with “toothless” international human rights norms? This article analyzes the effectiveness of procedures that allow individuals to petition an international human rights body, the Human Rights Committee, alleging state abuse of their treaty-protected rights under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Using methodological tools that account for selection biases arising from a country’s decision to authorize petitions and its subsequent propensity to be targeted by abuse claims, I find that basic civil rights and religious freedoms improved after states were found to have violated their human rights treaty obligations, whereas physical integrity abuses such as disappearances and extrajudicial killing were somewhat more impervious to change. These findings are interpreted with reference to the concept of “coupling” as borrowed from organizational sociology, and their implications for treaty design and enforcement are considered.     

Financial satisfaction and perceived income through a demographic lens: Do different race/gender pairs reap different returns to income?

The subjective assessment of personal income, insofar as it reflects or sheds light upon the (potentially different) economic incentive structures facing workers of different demographic groups, has far-reaching implications for public policy and private decision-making alike. This paper explores the impact of personal income on financial satisfaction and on perceived income, focusing on demographic differences across the following groups: white males, black males, white females and black females. The results indicate that different race/gender pairs do respond to income differently. For both financial satisfaction and perceived relative income, white females, black females and black males all have lower returns to personal income than do white males. White males, in other words, appear to reap more “bang for the buck” in terms of both of the outcome variables, even after a host of control variables are introduced. The possibility that social comparison among (racial and gender) ingroups is driving the observed demographic differences is discussed.     

The sociology of ecologically unequal exchange and carbon dioxide emissions, 1960-2005

The author engages the sociological theory of ecologically unequal exchange to assess the extent to which levels of per capita anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are a function of the “vertical flow” of exports to high-income nations. Results of cross-national fixed effects panel model estimates indicate that levels of such emissions are positively associated with the vertical flow of exports, and the relationship is much more pronounced for lower-income countries than for high-income countries. Additional findings suggest that the observed relationship for lower-income nations has grown in magnitude through time, indicating that structural associations between high-income and lower-income countries have become increasingly ecologically unequal, at least in the context of greenhouse gas emissions. These results hold, net of various important controls.     

Psychological ‘self–other overlap’ and support for slavery reparations

Neurobiological and social psychological studies suggest the existence of non-conscious ‘self–other overlap’ that can lead individuals to identify with other individuals or groups. This paper investigates whether this effect may help to explain support by some Whites for an otherwise unpopular policy on behalf of African Americans-slavery reparations. A representative telephone survey (n = 1200) serves as baseline of comparison for an online reaction time study with a non-representative sample (n = 1341) that measures ‘self–other overlap’ (interchangeably referred to as “implicit closeness” to Blacks). Partial proportional odds ordered logit analyses reveal implicit closeness to Blacks as the single most powerful predictor of support for reparations among White respondents. The magnitude of the absolute effect of implicit closeness exceeds that of traditional predictors such as racial resentment, ideology, and party identification. Methodological and political implications are discussed.     

Bribery or just desserts? Evidence on the influence of Congressional reproductive policy voting patterns on PAC contributions from exogenous variation in the sex mix of legislator offspring

Evidence on the relationship between political contributions and legislators’ voting behavior is marred by concerns about endogeneity in the estimation process. Using a legislator’s offspring sex mix as a truly exogenous variable, we employ an instrumental variable estimation procedure to predict the effect of voting behavior on political contributions. Following previous research, we find that a legislator’s proportion daughters has a significant effect on voting behavior for women’s issues, as measured by score in the “Congressional Record on Choice” issued by NARAL Pro-Choice America. In the second stage, we make a unique contribution by demonstrating a significant impact of exogenous voting behavior on PAC contributions, lending further credibility to the hypothesis that Political Action Committees respond to legislators’ voting patterns by “rewarding” political candidates that vote in line with the positions of the PAC, rather than affecting those same votes - at least in this high-profile policy domain.     

The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis

Retrospective questions on educational attainment in national surveys and censuses tend to over-estimate high school graduation rates by 15-20% points relative to administrative records. Administrative data on educational enrollment are, however, only available at the aggregate level (state, school district, and school levels) and the recording of inter-school transfers are generally incomplete. With access to linked individual-level administrative records from a very large “West Coast metropolitan school district” we track patterns of high school attrition and on-time high school graduation of individual students. Even with adjustments for the omission of out-of-district transfers (estimates of omission are presented), the results of this study show that failure in high school, as indexed by retention and attrition, are almost as common as on-time high school graduation. In addition to the usual risk factors of disadvantaged background, we find that the “9th grade shock”—an unpredicted decline in academic performance upon entering high school—is a key mechanism behind the continuing crisis of high school attrition.     

On population comparisons using factor indexes or latent variables

Population comparisons of multivariate models using factor indexes or latent factors are demonstrated to be unsound with current methods of comparative analysis unless one is willing to assume a priori that all of the variances of the latent factors in a model are identical across all populations analyzed. This is an assumption that is probably only rarely found in comparative research. Without this assumption, comparisons are unsound regardless of whether model estimations are made from regression analysis or maximum likelihood techniques. A general method is suggested which proposes to make comparative analyses of factors possible without the assumption of equal variances across populations.     

To thine own self be true? Clarifying the effects of identity discrepancies on psychological distress and emotions

After many years of research across disciplines, it remains unclear whether people are more motivated to seek appraisals that accurately match self-views (self-verification) or are as favorable as possible (self-enhancement). Within sociology, mixed findings in identity theory have fueled the debate. A problem here is that a commonly employed statistical approach does not take into account the direction of a discrepancy between how we see ourselves and how we think others see us in terms of a given identity, yet doing so is critical for determining which self-motive is at play. We offer a test of three competing models of identity processes, including a new “mixed motivations” model where self-verification and self-enhancement operate simultaneously. We compare the models using the conventional statistical approach versus response surface analysis. The latter method allows us to determine whether identity discrepancies involving over-evaluation are as distressing as those involving under-evaluation. We use nationally representative data and compare results across four different identities and multiple outcomes. The two statistical approaches lead to the same conclusions more often than not and mostly support identity theory and its assumption that people seek self-verification. However, response surface tests reveal patterns that are mistaken as evidence of self-verification by conventional procedures, especially for the spouse identity. We also find that identity discrepancies have different effects on distress and self-conscious emotions (guilt and shame). Our findings have implications not only for research on self and identity across disciplines, but also for many other areas of research that incorporate these concepts and/or use difference scores as explanatory variables.