存款保险制度、股东风险偏好与市场约束缺位——基于银行内部风险分配与转移的视角

存款保险制度的设立无形中削弱了存款人的约束激励，造成银行市场约束的缺位。在此情况下，谁来对银行的市场约束补位?本文通过2011—2019年185家商业银行数据构建存款人、非存款债权人与股东三者风险之间的联立方程组，实证检验存款保险制度实施后银行内部风险的变化。研究发现：(1)存款保险制度实施后股东风险偏好增大；存款人市场约束缺位，其风险增大；非存款债权人对此进行市场约束的补位，其风险降低。股东风险由存款人与非存款债权人分担转变为主要由存款人分担，这种趋势在中小银行尤为显著，且在银行整体风险的反馈机制下同样如此。(2)银行微观利益主体从资产份额、收益回报、整体风险三个方面调整其风险承担，存款人具有收益回报动机，股东具有资产份额动机，而非存款债权人具备上述全部动机。(3)强化外部监管会影响银行的市场约束，表现为缓解存款人约束缺位，挤出非存款债权人市场约束。据此，存款保险制度的设计需注意配合监管政策目标，引导银行微观利益主体维持银行审慎经营。     

政府隐性保险政策与银行业风险承担行为——对“国家信用悖论”的理论解释

本文在一个两期经济的框架内,研究了国家隐性保险对银行业风险承担行为的影响,给出了隐性保险对不同银行风险选择的激励条件和边界,并对基于政府隐性保险的"国家信用悖论"给予了理论解释.政府隐性保险并不必然鼓励所有银行的风险承担行为,它只是可能地鼓励了问题银行的风险承担激励.政府隐性保险对问题银行的风险承担激励取决于银行自身的资本充足状况和实体经济的微观基础.当实体经济缺乏竞争性的微观基础时,政府隐性保险越有可能鼓励了问题银行的整体性风险承担行为.     

存款保险制度、影子银行与银行系统性风险

为了防范系统性银行危机的发生,我国于2015年推出了存款保险制度,该制度能否有效降低我国银行系统性风险是关乎金融稳定的重要现实问题.以我国存款保险制度的实施为契机,本文基于16家上市银行2010年第四季度~2017年第二季度的面板数据,首先,将金融机构间的关联网络和金融机构市值纳入到系统性金融风险的测度中,进而探讨我国存款保险制度对银行系统性风险的影响及其作用渠道.结果表明存款保险制度的实施显著提高了其他商业银行(中、农、工、建以外的商业银行)的系统性风险;存款保险制度主要通过影子银行渠道增加其他商业银行的系统性风险.本文的研究对于我国强化影子银行的宏观审慎管理、引入基于银行系统性风险的差别存款保险费率设计和完善系统重要性金融机构的评定,具有一定的借鉴意义.     

存款保险制度、影子银行与银行系统性风险北大核心CSCDCSSCI

为了防范系统性银行危机的发生,我国于2015年推出了存款保险制度,该制度能否有效降低我国银行系统性风险是关乎金融稳定的重要现实问题.以我国存款保险制度的实施为契机,本文基于16家上市银行2010年第四季度~2017年第二季度的面板数据,首先,将金融机构间的关联网络和金融机构市值纳入到系统性金融风险的测度中,进而探讨我国存款保险制度对银行系统性风险的影响及其作用渠道.结果表明存款保险制度的实施显著提高了其他商业银行(中、农、工、建以外的商业银行)的系统性风险;存款保险制度主要通过影子银行渠道增加其他商业银行的系统性风险.本文的研究对于我国强化影子银行的宏观审慎管理、引入基于银行系统性风险的差别存款保险费率设计和完善系统重要性金融机构的评定,具有一定的借鉴意义.     

中国存款保险制度相关问题研究

随着全球经济一体化,金融已经成为现代经济的核心。现代经济的显著特征之一是金融业核心地位的确立。金融业的核心是银行,它是特点是高负债性,这使得金融行业具有一定的风险性。由于金融市场和金融机构内部以及银行自身存在着风险性,当发生经营危机时银行或金融机构便会出现挤兑现象,这种现象会影响到其它经营正常的金融机构或银行。由于以往实行隐性存款保险制度,即依靠政府承诺全额赔偿的金融风险防范措施潜在的降低了投资者及银行的风险意识,减少了市场本身的自我约束性,会给货币运行带来压力,因此构建显性存款保险制度是必要的。     

商业银行经营管理——以存款保险的视角

文章通过对存款保险制度进行界定,从隐形存款制度的制度缺陷和银行退出市场的法制缺陷揭示了建立存款保险制度的必要性,并以美国为例阐述了国外的存款保险制度的借鉴意义。     

存款保险制度对商业银行道德风险影响的实证研究

利用中国内地与香港在应对外部冲击时所表现出的较强的同步性,在一个自然实验的框架下,选取2002年至2013年中国内地和香港主要商业银行的数据作为样本,将2006年香港存款保险制度的实施作为外生变量,根据委托-代理理论,运用双重差分模型分别从信贷行为、资产结构和自有资本3个方面实证检验建立存款保险制度对商业银行道德风险的影响。研究结果表明,存款保险制度并不会引发商业银行的过度信贷,甚至能够在一定程度上抑制商业银行的过度信贷行为,且这种抑制作用对小银行更加明显;没有显著的证据表明存款保险制度会激励商业银行持有高风险资产组合;存款保险制度会促使商业银行减持资本缓冲。在当前的银行监管体制下,存款保险制度对商业银行道德风险的影响已由过去的资产业务转向负债业务,并进一步提出采取风险最小化型的职能定位以及加快向风险为本适度灵活的监管体系转变等政策建议,研究结果对于中国明确存款保险制度对商业银行道德风险影响的具体形式、制定更具针对性的风险控制策略具有十分重要的现实意义。     

美德两国存款保险制度模式比较

世界各国的存款保险制度尽管千差万别,但从政府管理和行业自律、市场约束这两个层面来看,当前存款保险制度运作中较成功的主要有两种模式:一种是以美国联邦存款保险制度为代表的政府存款保险模式(以下简称美国模式);另一种是以德国非官方自愿存款保险为代表的非官方存款保险模式(以下简称德国模式)。从运作实效来看,无论是美国模式还是德国模式,基本上都是成功的,但是这两种制度在加入方式和激励约束等方面存在很大差异。美国模式与德国模式主要特点比较1.美国模式的主要特点(1)对存款机构的加入方式实行强制加入。所有联邦特许的商业银行和…     

监管惩罚、监管宽容和存款保险价格

存款保险制度在维持金融稳定和保护存款人利益方面具有重要作用,其最为核心的问题是存款保险费率的确定.文章在Merton模型框架下将监管惩罚和监管宽容同时引入存款保险定价模型,并探究了存款保险价格和银行风险偏好之间的关系.研究发现,银行的存款保险费率和银行资产储蓄比呈现负相关关系.当监管惩罚力度加大时,银行的风险偏好降低,存款保险费率会也降低,这说明惩罚措施有利于维护金融稳定.研究还发现,监管宽容程度越高,银行的风险偏好也越高,进而存款保险价格越高.存款保险费率测算结果表明:相比较而言,"次贷危机"和"股灾"对城市银行的存款保险费率影响最大,对股份制银行的存款保险费率影响有限,而对国有银行存款保险费率基本没有影响.     

关于我国银行业金融机构市场退出机制的浅析

我国经济不断深化发展的同时银行业风险在不断增加,有的还出现了违法行为,从而导致银行业金融风险堆积,更有些银行已经退出了市场。2015年出台及正式实施的存款保险制度使银行业风险监管、预警、定价和处置机制逐步完善。本文通过对国内外问题银行市场退出机制的比较,对存款保险制度下银行业金融机构市场退出机制的分析,提出我国银行业金融机构市场退出机制监管的一些政策措施。     

外资银行与中资银行的战略合作决策研究

允许外资银行以少数股权形式与中资银行战略合作是中国银行业开放和中资银行改革的一个重要举措.在此背景下,考虑外资银行与本地引资银行之一战略合作以及未来控股本地引资银行的可能性,基于委托代理理论,构建控股决策的实物期权模型和少数股权合作决策模型,研究了外资银行与引资银行合作决策的交互行为.结果表明:1)未来控股引资银行的可能性是外资银行积极参与本地银行合作的更重要原因;2)现有少数股权合作机制和未来控股的可能性都难以激励外资银行有效贡献努力水平;3)为促进外资银行提高努力水平,引资银行应在少数股权合作机制中加入约束条款,相对于约束条款中的高约束指标,低约束指标更能促进外资银行贡献高努力水平.     

Operations research and bank planning

Starting with its use by the military in World War II, the Systems approach to problems solving and planning found its way into the business field. In the U.S.A. this was partly due to the filter-down effect into many firms entering into long term contracts with the Department of Defense. In examining the use of Systems Analysis in corporate planning, there appeared to be a prominent gap in its general use in the financial services industry of which commercial banks are the most important segment. Theoretically, banks are ideal economic units to use mathematically oriented Operations Research. Therefore, an in-depth study of such an existing planning system as used in a major U.S. commercial bank was undertaken. Such a case study, it was hoped, would yield important information as to how to introduce such a planning system into a bank, the types of programs in which it appeared to have strengths and weaknesses, and its applicability to planning processes in commercial banking generally. Consequently, a series of interviews with the director of this planning activity, his staff, and other officers of the bank were conducted. In order to obtain the data used in this study, a pledge to maintain anonimity of the bank was required. So, in the balance of this presentation, it shall be known as ‘The Bank’.     

Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques

The recent crisis highlighted, once again, the importance of early warning models to assess the soundness of individual banks. In the present study, we use six quantitative techniques originating from various disciplines to classify banks in three groups. The first group includes very strong and strong banks; the second one includes adequate banks, while the third group includes banks with weaknesses or serious problems. We compare models developed with financial variables only, with models that incorporate additional information in relation to the regulatory environment, institutional development, and macroeconomic conditions. The accuracy of classification of the models that include only financial variables is rather poor. We observe a substantial improvement in accuracy when we consider the country-level variables, with five out of the six models achieving out-of-sample classification accuracy above 70% on average. The models developed with multi-criteria decision aid and artificial neural networks achieve the highest accuracies. We also explore the development of stacked models that combine the predictions of the individual models at a higher level. While the stacked models outperform the corresponding individual models in most cases, we found no evidence that the best stacked model can outperform the best individual model.     

Liquidity planning in a small bank

Given a forecast of supply and demand for cash in each period of an infinite planning horizon, and with a known current portfolio, a policy is chosen to invest these cash supplies in securities of different maturities so that the demand in every future period can be satisfied by securities maturing in that period. The objective is to maximize the minimum of the excess over the planning horizon so that any illiquidity in one period is spread out over the entire planning horizon. Analytical solutions are obtained for single maturity and barbell investment policies. Feasibility and optimality conditions are determined for these policies.     

Blood bank information and control system

The design and implementation of a minicomputer blood bank information system is presented. It supports inventory control and provides statistics also allowing for optimal management decisions. Test runs in the Nuremberg General Hospital showed its time-saving effects. Outdating and shortage figures were reduced. The users' attitudes towards the system were explored; results were used to facilitate implementation difficulties.     

Sales performance measurement in bank branches

Studies of bank branch performance have, to date, concentrated on obtaining a single perspective of efficiency. As the financial services industry has intensified, banks have increasingly engated in a proactive, differentiated and customer-based strategy in retail banking in which the sales component of the bank branch activity is emphasized. With the emerging sales culture within banks, as discussed earlier, there is a need to evaluate both sales and service performance. Cook et al. [12] have proposed a model to evaluate simultaneously the sales, service, and aggregate efficiencies of a bank branch. This model accounted for the fact that inputs, in particular resources, are often shared among these functions. In this paper, we extend the data envelopment analysis additive model using goal programming concepts. We thereby derive optimal efficiency scores while taking into account non-volume related activities, that is those involving resources that cannot be assigned to a specific input or output. Again, the proposed model derives an optimal split of the shared resources that maximizes the aggregate efficiency.     

Forecasting daily outflows from a bank account

This paper is concerned with forecasting the total dollar amounts of checks presented for payment against a company bank account. Checks are issued each day against the account and mailed to parties located in different parts of the country. The mail lag for each check is taken into account explicitly given that data on this variable are readily available from external sources. Based on the distribution of time until clearance of each check after its receipt, the probability distribution of the total amount presented for payment on each day between consecutive bank statements can be readily computed one day ahead. A procedure for implementation of this forecasting scheme is suggested.     

Assessing the performance of a development bank

The performance of a development bank can be assessed on the basis of ‘financial function’ and ‘development function’ criteria. While the financial function measures its operational efficiency in terms of the profitability of its investment operations, the developmental function evaluates its allocational efficiency as reflected by its investment activities for the economic development of the country and the stimulation of the capital market. The objective of this paper is to appraise the performance of the Industrial Finance Corporation of India, in terms of its profitability. The profitability has been analysed with reference to its (i) operating earnings, (ii) cost of operations, (iii) gross and net profit margins on the loan portfolio and (iv) rate of return and capital appreciation on the securities portfolio. The paper concludes with suggested measures to improve its profitability in future.     

Data bank on the future business environment

This paper describes research undertaken using futures research methods to construct a data bank on the future business environment. It is called The Business Trends Library. It is often said that it is not possible to forecast business futures, so planning should be adapted so that we can drive blind into the future. The author disagrees with this school of thought. Most studies of business futures appear to be too narrowly based and not systematic enough. When interactions from all relevant areas can be taken into account, it is possible to narrow the uncertainty considerably about future events, and be much more specific about what will happen. Examples are shown to illustrate this.     

Re-designing bank service systems for effective marketing

Financial institutions are undergoing fundamental changes due to increased competitiveness and greater consumer awareness. These changes call for a re-examination of their design strategies. This article discusses three strategies— namely, marketing, operations and organizational design. The discussion is based on empirical data collected by means of a survey of bank consumers.