关于新时期人口和计划生育工作的思考

新时期全面推进计划生育,稳定低生育水平,必须更新思想观念、转变工作思路,积极探索计划生育利益导向机制和政策推动的有机结合,用利益关系引导和调节群众的婚育观念,用政策推动规范和约束群众的生育行为,在落实上下功夫,在兑现上求实效,在发展中求创新。     

安徽省育龄妇女生育水平及变动研究

以我国第五次、第六次人口普查数据为基础,结合历年统计数据,从横向和纵向两个角度剖析安徽省妇女生育水平现状和发展趋势,探析生育模式的变动情况.研究发现安徽省虽早已进入低生育水平阶段,但生育水平起伏较大,存在着反弹势能,且皖北、江淮和皖南三大区域之间生育水平发展不平衡.当前全省应当平稳推进现行生育政策,稳定低生育水平,提高计划生育管理和服务能力,不断优化人口结构.     

浅谈稳定低生育水平时期的计划生育协会工作

中共中央、国务院《关于加强人口与计划生育工作 ,稳定低生育水平的决定》(以下简称《决定》) ,全面总结了我国计划生育工作的实践经验 ,指出稳定低生育水平是今后一个时期重大而艰巨的任务。最近 ,中共中央办公厅就计划生育协会发展战略下发了 8号文件 ,可以说 ,这是贯彻党中央、国务院《决定》的配套文件。《决定》从 6个方面阐明了今后 10年人口与计划生育工作的目标和方针 ,条条都指明了人口与计划生育群众工作的方向 ,突出强调 :群众参与的工作机制、实行行政管理与群众工作相结合、继续把工作重点放在农村、把群众作为计划生育的主人…     

湖北省稳定低生育水平面临的挑战与对策

根据湖北省稳定低生育水平的工作目标 ,分析了实现该目标面临的诸如目前的低生育水平具有超前性、不稳定性 ,传统婚育观念的影响长期存在等等挑战 ,并据此提出了树立科学的人口发展战略观念 ,建立基本工作框架 ,确定相应的工作思路和方法以及关注流动人口等特殊群体的生育空间等对策     

湖北民族地区低生育水平不稳定因素与对策——以长阳土家族自治县为例

湖北长阳土家族自治县的低生育水平和不稳定因素,在湖北及中国南方少数民族地区具有很强的代表性。分析其低生育不稳定因素,探索其对策思考,既有助于稳定现行低生育水平,又能促进民族地区人口、经济、社会协调发展和可持续发展。     

谈谈计划生育工作的改革创新

徐州市计划生育委员会对中央《关于加强人口与计划生育工作稳定低生育水平的决定》进行了认真的学习和思考后认为 ,要稳定低生育水平 ,必须对计划生育工作进行改革创新 ,主要应从树立创新意识 ,深化改革计划生育干部人事制度 ,创新工作机制和服务机制入手。     

媒体关注·新政新知

计生委：我国将完善政策,切实稳定低生育水平 在7月11日举行的“世界人口日纪念大会”上,国家人口和计划生育委员会主任李斌说,我国将坚持和完善现行生育政策,切实稳定低生育水平。     

低生育水平下的人口与可持续发展

走可持续发展之路,需要稳定低生育水平,稳定低生育水平是实现可持续发展人口目标的手段.我国目前低生育水平不稳定要从"以数为本"向"以人为本"过渡,重构稳定低生育水平的社会机制,实现人口的健康发展和社会的可持续发展.     

关于我国生育政策与生育水平的几点思考

通过回顾梳理现存文献和进行国际比较认为,中国的总和生育率已经大大低于更替水平,且现行生育政策仅能有效控制大约6%的育龄妇女。在低生育水平已持续了近20年、理想子女数大约仅为2个孩子、现行生育政策对个体生育行为的控制作用大大减弱的情势下,未来维持低生育水平主要取决于经济社会的发展。只要能够有效控制各类人群的第三胎生育,推行现行生育政策与＂放宽二孩、杜绝三孩＂的生育政策之间差别就不会大;而如果超生是某些人的特权,就既会大大降低生育政策的公信力,也不利于稳定适度的低生育水平。     

全面建设小康社会必须有良好的人口环境

控制人口过快增长 ,提高出生人口素质 ,对于全面实现小康社会关系重大。在人口与计划生育工作中 ,努力贯彻“三个代表”重要思想 ,就是要通过控制人口过快增长 ,使人口与经济协调发展 ,体现先进生产力发展的要求 ;就是要通过转变人们的婚育观念 ,建立新型的生育文化 ;就是要通过稳定低生育水平 ,提高出生人口素质 ,来体现、保证广大人民群众的根本利益。     

上海市生育意愿30年的演变历程

通过对1980年初以来上海开展的数次生育意愿调查结果的回顾与梳理,展现了过去30年上海人口生育意愿(主要是意愿子女数和意愿子女性别)的演变历程:意愿子女数呈不断减少趋势;不同群体间生育意愿数虽存在差异,但都低于2个孩子。同时,总和生育率、孩次率等多项指标显示,上海人口的实际生育已长期处于很低水平。文中历次调查的意愿生育子女数与相应年份总和生育率的纵向比较可表明,在低生育水平社会,人们的实际生育水平一般低于所报告的意愿生育水平。     

The Popular Debate about Low Fertility: An Analysis of the German Press, 1993–2001

Despite increasing research on the causes, consequences, and measurement of low fertility, questions about the nature and the extent of popular concerns over low fertility have yielded more speculation than examination. We address this gap in the literature through an analysis of 328 German newspaper and news magazine articles mentioning low fertility from 1993 to 2001. Our analysis reveals a paradox: while fertility rates have remained well below replacement levels and governmental discussions of low fertility have increased, discussion of low fertility as a concern in and of itself has been small and unchanging over time. We find this to be true because the problem of low fertility is rarely invoked as a concern in its own right, but is most often used as a tool in the popular debate to discuss other problems – political, economic, and cultural.     

稳定低生育水平战略决策的回顾与前瞻

我国提出计划生育政策和稳定低生育水平的战略决策有深刻的历史背景,是对我国国情的理性判断.而当前我国的人口问题已不同于实行计划生育以前的人口问题,除了人口数量依然需要给予足够的重视外,人口质量、结构、流动迁移等问题比以前更为复杂多样,也需要得到充分关注.如果不能把低生育水平稳定住,各种人口问题会变得更加严峻,因此,稳定低生育水平是我国在人口问题上重大战略决策的继续和完善,是理性的选择.通过节约人口投资、推动城乡改革、提高我国整体实力和国际竞争力、缓解人口对资源环境的压力,为提升两代人的人力资本创造条件.稳定低生育率能促进生产力发展,提高人民生活质量,实现社会的和谐进步.此外,稳定低生育率还为我国庞大的人口转化为丰富的人力资源创造条件.虽然继续稳定低生育率也必将伴随一些负面影响,但总的来说对我国今后经济社会发展利大于弊.生育水平并不是越低越好,根据人口发展的特点,结合我国的实际情况,总和生育率(TFR)稳定在1.8左右在一个时期内是较优的选择.     

影响生育的国外家庭政策分析

利用联合国公开发表的资料以及英国、加拿大和日本相关部门的官网信息．就低生育水平对不同国家家庭政策的影响以及有关国家对生育水平具有隐性或显性作用的家庭政策进行了分析。研究结果表明,低生育水平是有关国家态度转变的依据,态度的转变也带来了政策上的相应变化。三个国家的家庭政策具有明显的增强家庭养育子女经济实力、提升家庭照料子女能力以及促进家庭自身良性发展的作用。     

河南省稳定低生育水平研究

准确的生育水平数据是制定人口政策和发展战略的重要依据。在制定河南省人口发展战略的过程中,运用科学的方法,综合评估河南近期的妇女生育水平,分析河南省生育水平特点和面临的压力,提出稳定低生育水平的对策建议,具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。     

The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s

During the last two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followed by a period of lower employment and decreasing fertility since the beginning of the 1990s. In this paper, we use register data for Swedish women in order to examine how various types of attachment to the labour market affect women's propensity to give birth at different parities. Specifically, we show what impact changes in women's employment status have had on recorded fertility trends in Sweden. We find that women who have relatively low levels of income and women who are enrolled as students generally have lower fertility than other women. We also find that a rise in the number of women with such characteristics can explain part of the decrease in fertility during the 1990s. It is evident, however, that other factors, working at the macro level, also have to be considered when one wants to explain the fluctuating fertility of Sweden. Social policy is one such factor. In sum, we find a pattern of pro-cyclical fertility, where levels of female earnings are positively related to levels of childbearing.     

建设现代生育文化与稳定低生育水平

从历史发展看 ,现代生育文化替代传统生育文化有其必然性 ,在社会转型期建设现代生育文化是完善社会主义市场经济、在计划生育领域实践“三个代表”思想的需要。因现代生育文化对人们生育观的形成和转变有着指导、改造、调控的功能 ,故建设现代生育文化是稳定低生育水平的治本之策     

Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe

We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.