Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach

The attack that occurred on September 11, 2001 was, in the end, the result of a failure to detect and prevent the terrorist operations that hit the United States. The U.S. government thus faces at this time the daunting tasks of first, drastically increasing its ability to obtain and interpret different types of signals of impending terrorist attacks with sufficient lead time and accuracy, and second, improving its ability to react effectively. One of the main challenges is the fusion of information, from different sources (U.S. or foreign), and of different types (electronic signals, human intelligence. etc.). Fusion thus involves two very distinct and separate issues: communications, i.e., ensuring that the different U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies communicate all relevant and accurate information in a timely fashion and, perhaps more difficult, merging the content of signals, some "sharp" and some "fuzzy," some dependent and some independent into useful information. The focus of this article is on the latter issue, and on the use of the results. In this article, I present a classic probabilistic Bayesian model sometimes used in engineering risk analysis, which can be helpful in the fusion of information because it allows computation of the posterior probability of an event given its prior probability (before the signal is observed) and the quality of the signal characterized by the probabilities of false positive and false negative. Experience suggests that the nature of these errors has been sometimes misunderstood; therefore, I discuss the validity of several possible definitions.     

Informing the Public About Uncertain Risks

Many problems arise in connection with the communication of risk information. In this article the content of the information communicated is taken as a starting-point for analyzing the risk communication process. We studied the way in which authorities communicated health risks to local residents in Dutch soil pollution situations and found that communication problems were characterized more by misunderstanding and conflict between parties with different views and interests than by a lack of understanding. Therefore, it is important to look more closely at the way the communicators of information (in our cases, officials) select risk information from risk assessments, and to study the effects that the information selected has on the receivers (in our cases, residents). Both the process of selection by the officials and the process of interpretation by the residents will be shown to be influenced by the different institutional backgrounds. The article presents a new approach to risk communication. Both the risk information presented by the authorities and the public reactions to this risk information are considered to reflect the institutional background of authorities and residents, and can be analyzed in these terms. Such an approach has consequences for the study of risk communication and the manner in which it is practiced.     

Information security governance: pending legal responsibilities of non-executive boards

The study shows that a structural conflict of interest in non-executive boards exists due to missing corporate governance structures and a lack of awareness for legal issues with regard to information security risks. Non-executive boards receive information on strategic security threats as a part of their oversight function to fulfill investor interest in transparency. At the same time, they act as representatives of company stakeholders and have an interest to counteract to information security risks based on the stakeholder’s risk disposition. If not properly structured by corporate governance rules, these different interests may lead to regulatory aberrations on non-executive board level. The study analyses a Deutsche Telekom AG case where non-executive board members, employees, and journalists fell victim to a spying scandal subject to the German telecommunications secrecy law in 2005–2006. The analysis demonstrates how the handling of information security on non-executive board level bears governance risks as well as legal risks that are insufficiently addressed in corporate governance research. The paper contributes to avoid a reproduction of events in the future, by suggesting the principle of a segregation of duties on non-executive boards as well as providing an overview of relevant legislative requirements that clarify tasks of non-executive board members with regard to information security. The study therefore helps protecting corporations and their stakeholders from similar consequences of missing corporate security governance.     

The Emergence of Hypertext and Problem Solving: An Experimental Investigation of Accessing and Using Information from Linear versus Nonlinear Systems*

Past research suggests that problem solving and/or decision behavior can be altered and improved by the changes in the way information is accessed and displayed. Also, researchers have found that the usefulness of different information display formats are contingent on the characteristics of the problem task. This research investigated the impact on problem solving when accessing and using information from linear and nonlinear systems. Also, the research investigated problem-solving performance of linear and nonlinear systems when applied to different combinations of problem tasks. In a laboratory setting, linear and nonlinear systems were developed to conduct this experiment. This experiment used 64 graduate business students in a two-factor repeated-measures design employing a multivariate analysis of variance to analyze the data. Repeated measures were conducted to analyze the experimental group under both linear and nonlinear treatments. The findings from the study support the notion that the nonlinear system resulted in superior problem solving and higher levels of user satisfaction than the linear system. Specifically, the nonlinear system enabled users to make faster and more accurate decisions on perceptual problem tasks than did the linear system. For analytical problem tasks, users performed faster with the nonlinear system; however, there was no significant difference in accuracy. User satisfaction was higher with the nonlinear system under both perceptual and analytical tasks.     

Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead‐Painted Toys

In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead‐painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product‐caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents’ cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event.     

Cognitive Fit: A Theory-Based Analysis of the Graphs Versus Tables Literature*

A considerable amount of research has been conducted over a long period of time into the effects of graphical and tabular representations on decision-making performance. To date, however, the literature appears to have arrived at few conclusions with regard to the performance of the two representations. This paper addresses these issues by presenting a theory, based on information processing theory, to explain under what circumstances one representation outperforms the other. The fundamental aspects of the theory are: (1) although graphical and tabular representations may contain the same information, they present that information in fundamentally different ways; graphical representations emphasize spatial information, while tables emphasize symbolic information; (2) tasks can be divided into two types, spatial and symbolic, based on the type of information that facilitates their solution; (3) performance on a task will be enhanced when there is a cognitive fit (match) between the information emphasized in the representation type and that required by the task type; that is, when graphs support spatial tasks and when tables support symbolic tasks; (4) the processes or strategies problem solvers use are the crucial elements of cognitive fit since they provide the link between representation and task; the processes identified here are perceptual and analytical; (5) so long as there is a complete fit of representation, processes, and task type, each representation will lead to both quicker and more accurate problem solving. The theory is validated by its success in explaining the results of published studies that examine the performance of graphical and tabular representations in decision making.     

The Effects of Interruptions,Task Complexity,and Information Presentation on Computer‐Supported Decision‐Making Performance

Interruptions are a frequent occurrence in the work life of most decision makers. This paper investigated the influence of interruptions on different types of decision‐making tasks and the ability of information presentation formats, an aspect of information systems design, to alleviate them. Results from the experimental study indicate that interruptions facilitate performance on simple tasks, while inhibiting performance on more complex tasks. Interruptions also influenced the relationship between information presentation format and the type of task performed: spatial presentation formats were able to mitigate the effects of interruptions while symbolic formats were not. The paper presents a broad conceptualization of interruptions and interprets the ramifications of the experimental findings within this conceptualization to develop a program for future research.     

Effect of Risk Ladder Format on Risk Perception in High- and Low-Numerate Individuals

Utilizing a random sample from the general population ( N = 257), we examined the effect of the radon risk ladder on risk perception, as qualified by respondents' numeracy. The radon risk ladder provides comparative risk information about the radon equivalent of smoking risk. We compared a risk ladder providing smoking risk information with a risk ladder not providing this information. A 2 (numeracy; high, low) × 3 (risk level; high, medium, low) × 2 (smoking risk comparison: with/without) between subjects experimental design was used. A significant ( p < 0.045) three-way interaction between format, risk level, and numeracy was identified. Participants with low numeracy skills, as well as participants with high numeracy skills, generally distinguished between low, medium, and high risk levels when the risk ladder with comparative smoking risk information was presented. When the risk ladder without the comparative information about the smoking risk was presented, low-numerate individuals differentiated between risk levels to a much lesser extent than high-numerate individuals did. These results provide empirical evidence that the risk ladder can be a useful tool in enabling people to interpret various risk levels. Additionally, these results allow us to conclude that providing comparative information within a risk ladder is particularly helpful to the understanding of different risk levels by people with low numeracy skills.     

The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.     

Process Tracing Analysis of Hurricane Information Displays

To study people's processing of hurricane forecast advisories, we conducted a computer‐based experiment that examined 11 research questions about the information seeking patterns of students assuming the role of a county emergency manager in a sequence of six hurricane forecast advisories for each of four different hurricanes. The results show that participants considered a variety of different sources of information—textual, graphic, and numeric—when tracking hurricanes. Click counts and click durations generally gave the same results but there were some significant differences. Moreover, participants’ information search strategies became more efficient over forecast advisories and with increased experience tracking the four hurricanes. These changes in the search patterns from the first to the fourth hurricane suggest that the presentation of abstract principles in a training manual was not sufficient for them to learn how to track hurricanes efficiently but they were able to significantly improve their search efficiency with a modest amount (roughly an hour) of practice. Overall, these data indicate that information search patterns are complex and deserve greater attention in studies of dynamic decision tasks.     

An Empirical Study of the Toxic Capsule Crisis in China: Risk Perceptions and Behavioral Responses

The outbreak of the toxic capsule crisis during April 2012 aroused widespread public concern about the risk of chromium‐contaminated capsules and drug safety in China. In this article, we develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perceptions of the pharmaceutical drug capsules and behavioral responses to the toxic capsule crisis and the relationship between associated factors and these two variables. An online survey was conducted to test the model, including questions on the measures of perceived efficacy of the countermeasures, trust in the State FDA (Food and Drug Administration), trust in the pharmaceutical companies, trust in the pharmaceutical capsule producers, risk perception, concern, need for information, information seeking, and risk avoidance. In general, participants reported higher levels of risk perception, concern, and risk avoidance, and lower levels of trust in the three different stakeholders. The results from the structural equation modeling procedure suggest that perceived efficacy of the countermeasures is a predictor of each of the three trust variables; however, only trust in the State FDA has a dampening impact on risk perception. Both risk perception and information seeking are significant determinants of risk avoidance. Risk perception is also positively related to concern. Information seeking is positively related to both concern and need for information. The theoretical and policy implications are also discussed.     

Presenting Geographic Information: Effects of Data Aggregation,Dispersion, and Users' Spatial Orientation

Geographic information systems (GIS) have taken on an increasingly important role supporting decision making in many organizations. GIS have been used to support a breadth of tasks including oil and mineral exploration, facility location, logistics support, and facilities management decisions. The effectiveness of GIS as a decision support tool comes primarily from the visual display of data in the form of maps. When presenting information as a geographic map, the level of data aggregation potentially affects aspects of task complexity such as information load and the potential for pattern recognition by the user. Other task attributes expected to be related to data aggregation effects include problem size, the degree of data dispersion, and users' spatial orientation skills. We conducted an experiment to study these effects and their interactions. Subjects used a GIS including map-based information characterized by different levels of problem size, data dispersion, and data aggregation. Spatial orientation skill was examined as a covariate in the experimental treatments. The results indicate that all of these geographic information characteristics have significant impacts on decision performance. Moreover, many interactions are present among the factors. We evaluate these interactions in order to derive implications for practice and for future research.     

Small Group Studies of Regulatory Decision-Making for Power-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields

Three groups of lay opinion leaders were used in a group role-playing decision exercise designed to explore problems in public risk management decision-making. The application domain was possible risks from the 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields associated with high-voltage power transmission lines. While there were differences in the make-up and dynamics of the three groups, the structure and substantive content of the tasks undertaken dominated intergroup variation in terms of the factors that were most important to group members' decisions. The groups displayed sophistication in their identification of decision attributes and in many of the arguments they advanced, but experienced difficulties in structuring and making trade-offs and decisions. The groups were not good at normalizing or otherwise manipulating quantitative information, and used it largely in the form it was received. Upper-bound risk estimates were treated operationally in most group discussions as expected values. Several kinds of strong framing effects were observed in the use of cost and risk information. Specific quantitative results obtained must be treated with care but may provide a starting place for further work on the acceptable level of transmission line risk.     

Researchers' Perspectives on Supply Chain Risk Management

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a nascent area emerging from a growing appreciation for supply chain risk by practitioners and by researchers. However, there is diverse perception of research in supply chain risk because these researchers have approached this area from different domains. This paper presents our study of this diversity from the perspectives of operations and supply chain management scholars: First, we reviewed the researchers' output, i.e., the recent research literature. Next, we surveyed two focus groups (members of Supply Chain Thought Leaders and International SCRM groups) with open‐ended questions. Finally, we surveyed operations and supply chain management researchers during the 2009 INFORMS meeting in San Diego. Our findings characterize the diversity in terms of three “gaps”: a definition gap in how researchers define SCRM, a process gap in terms of inadequate coverage of response to risk incidents, and a methodology gap in terms of inadequate use of empirical methods. We also list ways to close these gaps as suggested by the researchers.     

Measuring Perceptions of Synergistic Circulatory Disease Risk Due to Smoking and the Oral Contraceptive Pill

There is evidence that the oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and smoking contribute independently to risk of circulatory disease. There is mixed evidence that the combined risk may be greater than the sum of these factors operating in isolation. Little is known about how the general population views the risks from OCP use, singly and in combination with smoking. Previous attempts at assessing whether the public views risks as operating synergistically have generally found evidence for subadditive models, where the combined risk is less than the sum of factors operating in isolation. However, concerns have been expressed over the validity of the measures of risk perception used. Therefore, this study used three distinct methods of measurement to assess the extent to which 241 undergraduate students perceive the risks of smoking and the OCP separately and combined, for circulatory disease. For all three methods, respondents read each of four vignettes describing information about a woman's risk factors (with high and low levels of both OCP and smoking), and then estimated risk of circulatory disease using one of the three risk measures. The three measures produced similar ratings. Consistent with the epidemiological evidence, information about smoking had more impact on estimates of overall risk than did information about the OCP For all three measures, responses were consistent with an additive model of risk from smoking and the OCP. This convergence of results from different methods suggests that all three methods of measurement employed, which all had a large number of response options, may be valid.     

Risk Characterization and the Weight of Evidence: Adapting Gatekeeping Concepts from the Courts

Risk characterization objectives include evaluating the weight of evidence underlying risk determinations, communicating that evaluation to nonexperts, guiding risk assessors to achieve consistency, and preserving deference for those reasonable expert judgments inherent in any risk determination. Similar objectives are shared by American courts that face the gatekeeping task of screening scientific evidence before it is presented to nonexpert factfinders, such as juries. This article surveys the judicial gatekeeping concepts of relevance, evidentiary reliability, legal sufficiency, presumptions, and standards of proof (particularly, preponderance of the evidence). It examines recent court decisions that have applied these concepts to the kinds of scientific information common in risk assessments, and suggests how to adapt these gatekeeping concepts for use in weight-of-evidence characterization. If we can develop and adopt a neutral framework for characterizing the weight of evidence underlying risk assessments, it might help clarify not only the current debate over risk characterization and risk management, but also the drafting of treaty provisions, such as those invoking the Precautionary Principle of international environmental law.     

Leadership and emotion management for complex tasks: Different emotions,different strategies

Emotions in the workplace influence a number of critical cognitive tasks including information processing and decision-making. Moreover, the effect of emotion on these operations is often emotion-specific. Given these unique effects, leaders may need to learn how to manage subordinates' discrete emotions, and not just general affect. This laboratory experiment examined the effects of leaders suggesting different regulation strategies after subordinates experienced anger or pessimism. Effects of these emotions under different leader-facilitated regulation strategies were evaluated with respect to planning, a critical organizational task, and perceptions of leader effectiveness. Results demonstrated that the type of leader-facilitated regulation strategy moderates the relationships of anger and pessimism to planning. The findings imply that leaders should understand the differential effects of discrete emotions, and be prepared to help subordinates manage emotions accordingly.