On multiple change-point estimation for Poisson process

This work is devoted to the problem of change-point parameter estimation in the case of the presence of multiple changes in the intensity function of the Poisson process. It is supposed that the observations are independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes with the same intensity function and this intensity function has two jumps separated by a known quantity. The asymptotic behavior of the maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimators are described. It is shown that these estimators are consistent, have different limit distributions, the moments converge and that the Bayesian estimators are asymptotically efficient. The numerical simulations illustrate the obtained results.     

On hypothesis tests for disk-type intensities of spatial poisson processes

We consider the problem of testing whether realizations of a spatial Poisson process come from a circular intensity model or from an elliptical intensity model. We describe the behavior of the Generalized Likelihood Ratio and Wald tests, in the asymptotics of large samples. The power functions are studied under local alternatives and results of numerical simulations comparing them to the Neyman–Pearson envelope are presented.     

Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy-making in Cali,Colombia

A Poisson regression model with an offset assumes a constant baseline rate after accounting for measured covariates, which may lead to biased estimates of coefficients in an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To correctly estimate the effect of time-dependent covariates, we propose a Poisson change-point regression model with an offset that allows a time-varying baseline rate. When the non-constant pattern of a log baseline rate is modeled with a non-parametric step function, the resulting semi-parametric model involves a model component of varying dimensions and thus requires a sophisticated varying-dimensional inference to obtain the correct estimates of model parameters of a fixed dimension. To fit the proposed varying-dimensional model, we devise a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo-type algorithm based on partial collapse. The proposed model and methods are used to investigate the association between the daily homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, and the policies that restrict the hours during which the legal sale of alcoholic beverages is permitted. While simultaneously identifying the latent changes in the baseline homicide rate which correspond to the incidence of sociopolitical events, we explore the effect of policies governing the sale of alcohol on homicide rates and seek a policy that balances the economic and cultural dependencies on alcohol sales to the health of the public.     

On hypothesis testing for Poisson processes: Regular case

ABSTRACT

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in the situation when the firsthypothesis is simple and the second one is local one-sided composite. We describe the choice of the thresholds and the power functions of the Score Function test, of the General Likelihood Ratio test, of the Wald test, and of two Bayes tests in the situation when the intensity function of the observed inhomogeneous Poisson process is smooth with respect to the parameter. It is shown that almost all these tests are asymptotically uniformly most powerful. The results of numerical simulations are presented.     

A power study of k-linear-r-ahead recursive residuals test for change-point in finite sequences

A change-point problem in finite sequences is considered along with, so-called, k-linear-r-ahead recursive residuals and a test procedure proposed by ?o?a¸d? et al. [?o?a¸d?, J.A., Szkutnik, Z., Majerczak, J. and Duda, K. 1998, Detection of change point in oxygen uptake during an incremental exercise test using recursive residuals: relationship to the plasma lactate accumulation and blood acid base balance. European Journal of Applied Physiology, 78, 369–377.]. Theoretical significance levels of that (conservative) test are compared with its simulated sizes. Numerical approximations to the powers against various alternatives are given. Properties of the k-linear-r-ahead recursive residuals are described and the consistency of the test is proved, when the noise level goes to zero.     

Hypotheses testing for a multidimensional parameter of inhomogeneous Poisson processes

We observe a realization of an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose intensity function depends on an unknown multidimensional parameter. We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the Rao score test for a simple null hypothesis against the multilateral alternative. By using the Edgeworth type expansion (under the null hypothesis) for a vector of stochastic integrals with respect to the Poisson process, we refine the (classic) threshold of the test (obtained by the central limit theorem), which improves the first type probability of error. The expansion allows us to describe the power of the test under the local alternative, i.e. a sequence of alternatives, which converge to the null hypothesis with a certain rate. The rates can be different for components of the parameter.     

On a superiority problem in misspecified restricted linear models

Razzaghi (1987) conjectures that a wrong choice of covariance matrix in a restricted linear model results in loss of efficiency, This conjecture is proved to be correct.     

Convergence rates of change-point estimators and tail probabilities of the first-passage-time process

In the classical setting of the change-point problem, the maximum-likelihood estimator and the traditional confidence region for the change-point parameter are considered. It is shown that the probability of the correct decision, the coverage probability and the expected size of the confidence set converge exponentially fast as the sample size increases to infinity. For this purpose, the tail probabilities of the first passage times are studied. General inequalities are established, and exact asymptotics are obtained for the case of Bernoulli distributions. A closed asymptotic form for the expected size of the confidence set is derived for this case via the conditional distribution of the first passage times.     

Semi-parametric extended Poisson process models for count data

A general framework for the analysis of count data (with covariates) is proposed using formulations for the transition rates of a state-dependent birth process. The form for the transition rates incorporates covariates proportionally, with the residual distribution determined from a smooth non-parametric state-dependent form. Computation of the resulting probabilities is discussed, leading to model estimation using a penalized likelihood function. Two data sets are used as illustrative examples, one representing underdispersed Poisson-like data and the other overdispersed binomial-like data.     

Tests for Monotonic Intensity in a Poisson Process

Likelihood ratio tests about the intensity function are obtained by confining the estimated intensity function of a Poisson process to a sample-dependent, left-continuous step function class. These tests have relatively simple test statistics and their distributions are stochastically maximized when the process is homogeneous.     

On tests for spatial trend in a non-homogeneous Poisson process

Certain spatial point patterns may be associated with a single fixed point. Some simple tests for spatial trend in radial and angular distribution are recommended when no interaction between the radial and angular distribution is found. Interaction tests for more complex rate finctions are discussed and a practical example of the analysis applied to the mortality experience around a steel plant is provided.     

A Poisson geometric process approach for predicting drop-out and committed first-time blood donors

A Poisson geometric process (PGP) model is proposed to study individual blood donation patterns for a blood donor retention program. Extended from the geometric process (GP) model of Lam [16 Y. Lam, Geometric process and replacement problem, Acta Math. Appl. Sin. 4 (1988), pp. 366–377. doi: 10.1007/BF02007241[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]], the PGP model captures the rather pronounced trend patterns across clusters of donors via the ratio parameters in a mixture setting. Within the state-space modeling framework, it allows for overdispersion by equating the mean of the Poisson data distribution to a latent GP. Alternatively, by simply setting, the mean of the Poisson distribution to be the mean of a GP, it has equidispersion. With the group-specific mean and ratio functions, the mixture PGP model facilitates classification of donors into committed, drop-out and one-time groups. Based on only two years of observations, the PGP model nicely predicts donors’ future donations to foster timely recruitment decision. The model is implemented using a Bayesian approach via the user-friendly software WinBUGS.     

Testing for overdispersion in a censored Poisson regression model

In this article, we investigate the efficiency of score tests for testing a censored Poisson regression model against censored negative binomial regression alternatives. Based on the results of a simulation study, score tests using the normal approximation, underestimate the nominal significance level. To remedy this problem, bootstrap methods are proposed. We find that bootstrap methods keep the significance level close to the nominal one and have greater power uniformly than does the normal approximation for testing the hypothesis.     

Some asymptotic results for the integrated empirical process with applications to statistical tests

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the strong approximation of the integrated empirical process. More precisely, we obtain the exact rate of the approximations by a sequence of weighted Brownian bridges and a weighted Kiefer process. Our arguments are based in part on the Komlós et al. (1975 Komlós, J., Major, P., Tusnády, G. (1975). An approximation of partial sums of independent RV's and the sample DF. I. Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verw. Gebiete 32:111–131.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])'s results. Applications include the two-sample testing procedures together with the change-point problems. We also consider the strong approximation of the integrated empirical process when the parameters are estimated. Finally, we study the behavior of the self-intersection local time of the partial-sum process representation of the integrated empirical process.     

Bayes sequential estimation for a Poisson process under a LINEX loss function

In this paper, within the framework of a Bayesian model, we consider the problem of sequentially estimating the intensity parameter of a homogeneous Poisson process with a linear exponential (LINEX) loss function and a fixed cost per unit time. An asymptotically pointwise optimal (APO) rule is proposed. It is shown to be asymptotically optimal for the arbitrary priors and asymptotically non-deficient for the conjugate priors in a similar sense of Bickel and Yahav [Asymptotically pointwise optimal procedures in sequential analysis, in Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. 1, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, 1967, pp. 401–413; Asymptotically optimal Bayes and minimax procedures in sequential estimation, Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968), pp. 442–456] and Woodroofe [A.P.O. rules are asymptotically non-deficient for estimation with squared error loss, Z. Wahrsch. verw. Gebiete 58 (1981), pp. 331–341], respectively. The proposed APO rule is illustrated using a real data set.     

Score test for homogeneity of dispersion in generalized Poisson mixed models with excess zeros

In many applications, the clustered count data often contain excess zeros and the zero-inflated generalized Poisson mixed (ZIGPM) regression model may be suitable. However, dispersion in ZIGPM is often treated as fixed unknown parameter, and this assumption may be not appropriate in some situations. In this article, a score test for homogeneity of dispersion parameter in ZIGPM regression model is developed and corresponding test statistic is obtained. Sampling distribution and power of the score test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, results from a biological example illustrate the usefulness of the diagnostic statistic.     

A score test for overdispersion in Poisson regression based on the generalized Poisson-2 model

Overdispersion is a common phenomenon in Poisson modeling. The generalized Poisson (GP) regression model accommodates both overdispersion and underdispersion in count data modeling, and is an increasingly popular platform for modeling overdispersed count data. The Poisson model is one of the special cases in the collection of models which may be specified by GP regression. Thus, we may derive a test of overdispersion which compares the equi-dispersion Poisson model within the context of the more general GP regression model. The score test has an advantage over the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and over the Wald test in that the score test only requires that the parameter of interest be estimated under the null hypothesis (the Poisson model). Herein, we propose a score test for overdispersion based on the GP model (specifically the GP-2 model) and compare the power of the test with the LRT and Wald tests. A simulation study indicates the proposed score test based on asymptotic standard normal distribution is more appropriate in practical applications.     

Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.