What is to be done about unemployment?

The rate of unemployment in Britain has been rising, and will doubtless continue to rise for the foreseeable future. On present trends any significant fall in the rate of unemployment appears improbable. We face the prospect of unemployment in the 1980s as severe as that experienced in the 1930s when only at its worst did the rate rise to the equivalent of nearly four million in today's terms. Against this background it is natural to despair of solutions. Certainly we cannot provide a policy which will produce an immediate return to ‘full employment’. but there are opportunities available for appreciably improving employment prospects. Particular policies are discussed and recommended in this paper, and the initiative has to be taken now.     

Public Perception of the Risks of Floods: Implications for Communication

Floods in the U.S. kill an average of 162 people each year and cause $3.4 billion in property damage. Flood control programs have been successful in lowering, but not eliminating, the risks to lives and property. Since the late 1960s, the federal government has emphasized flood insurance as a primary tool for improving location and flood-proofing decisions, as well as for reimbursing flood losses. Since only 12.7% of houses in flood plain areas are covered by flood insurance, the program has been ineffective. We interviewed people living in three communities that had recently been flooded. Most people had little knowledge of the cause of floods or what could be done to prevent damage. People who work and who are better educated know more and are more likely to have flood insurance. Current government publications about flood risks are not likely to be understood by those at risk. There is little effective communication about the nature and magnitude of the risks and what individuals can do to protect their lives and property and lower their financial risks. The risk management program should both emphasize communication and enforcement of the current law requiring people at risk who hold federally funded loans to be insured.     

Five stages of growth in small business

As a small business develops it moves through five growth stages, each with its own distinctive characteristics. Because the transition from one stage to the next requires change, it will be accompanied by some crisis or another. Crises tend to be disruptive and the problems of change can be minimized if managers are proactive rather than reactive. Prior knowledge of what generates crises and what to expect in each stage will smooth the process of change. This article proposes a model of small business growth to enable managers of small businesses to plan for future growth. The model has been successfully tested and used by the authors in analysing and solving the problem of growing small businesses. The model isolates the five growth stages, the sort of things that will precipitate crises and the major strategies that should be considered at each stage. Its main purpose is as a diagnostic tool in analysing the firm's present position and in planning what will be required as it progresses to the next stage of its development.     

Present-but-online: How mobile devices may harm purposeful co-presence in organizations (and what can be done about it)

The introduction of mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablets), to the workplace has had many positive effects. While research also indicates that mobile devices may lead to the misallocation and depletion of attention, the negative effects, particularly on interactions in organizations, remain less well understood. We draw on micro-sociology to analyze the use of mobile devices in situations of purposeful co-presence, such as meetings and settings that require a joint effort to solve one or more problems. In these situations, the use of mobile devices is likely to de-energize actors and lead to behaviors that are contrary to the aims of establishing situations of purposeful co-presence. We identify ways in which organizations can avoid the negative consequences of mobile devices (while keeping the positive consequences), ranging from building norms regarding the use of such devices to restructuring work processes (e.g., making activities less interdependent and making less use of purposeful co-presence).     

Touching what is, touching what might be

How do you master change? You have to master the paradox of changing while staying grounded. To make use of the power living inside any new thing that comes your way, you first have to touch it--not tentatively but profoundly--at the same time that you maintain a firm connection with that which is deepest and most fundamental within you. Here, some ideas on how to create "touch points," the ability to look at a problem or impending change from many different angles, thus broadening your understanding and possible response. A key tactic in creating a variety of touch points is quite simple: Ask a lot of questions. Ask especially the questions that have difficult answers, or for which you suspect there is no answer.     

Moral character: What it is and what it does

Moral character can be conceptualized as an individual's disposition to think, feel, and behave in an ethical versus unethical manner, or as the subset of individual differences relevant to morality. This essay provides an organizing framework for understanding moral character and its relationship to ethical and unethical work behaviors. We present a tripartite model for understanding moral character, with the idea that there are motivational, ability, and identity elements. The motivational element is consideration of others – referring to a disposition toward considering the needs and interests of others, and how one's own actions affect other people. The ability element is self-regulation – referring to a disposition toward regulating one's behavior effectively, specifically with reference to behaviors that have positive short-term consequences but negative long-term consequences for oneself or others. The identity element is moral identity—referring to a disposition toward valuing morality and wanting to view oneself as a moral person. After unpacking what moral character is, we turn our attention to what moral character does, with a focus on how it influences unethical behavior, situation selection, and situation creation. Our research indicates that the impact of moral character on work outcomes is significant and consequential, with important implications for research and practice in organizational behavior.     

Towards more productive industrial relations

The author suggests that a critical factor in bringing about an overall improvement in the UK's economic performance is an improvement in Industrial Relations—with the aim of achieving levels of productivity which match the best in the world. The article asks how this is to be done; what has gone wrong; and, more importantly, what can be done to improve the situation in the future.     

Technology adoption and training practices as a constrained shortest path problem

Technology adoption is not a new venue for research. Much work of decision modeling, diffusion of new technology and statistical analysis of survey data has been done. Some studies focus on finding the optimal forms of technology to adopt within a complementarity framework, but there is no mention of finding an optimal path from a firm's current state to its optimal state. This represents a significant gap in the literature. The paper applies a constrained shortest path problem to training and technology adoption decisions by firms. Given the current set of training and technology adoption the method solves for what technology/practice should be adopted or removed from the complete set of combinations and in what order so as to maximize performance subject to budget constraints. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first application of the constrained shortest path problem to technology adoption decisions.     

Designing computer models that work

The techniques of financial modelling are becoming more popular and accepted as a useful information processing tool. However, what is ‘financial modelling’ and does the term adequately describe current applications? Why has financial modelling been such a growth area and what are the benefits? Given a desire to build models, where does the manager begin? What type of system and language should be used and by whom? What type of computing facility is most suitable? Which modelling system should be selected and what features are important? As well as an increase in the number of financial modelling applications they are now more complex. What guidelines can one use when designing large and complex models? This article seeks to answer these questions, concentrating on the large and more complex models, particularly for long term planning and budgeting applications. Finally an example is given illustrating how a large modelling system can be constructed and maintained with little technical computer expertise.     

去留街道办

【策划人语】原本低调的铜陵市社区综合体制改革,因为直指街道办事处的撤销,近期骤然升温,并引发诸多讨论:街道办是撤还是留?社区能否去行政化?如何平衡改革中各方利益关系?铜陵模式可否复制……诸如此类问题,促使我们对社区综合体制改革的观察,具有了多维视角。由此,本刊把关注点聚焦在改革源头——铜官山区。作为全国第一个、也是目前唯一的社区管理和服务创新实验区,发端于铜官山区的社区综合体制改革值得关注。     

Management Control Systems: One View of Components and Their Interdependence1

Professor Robert Anthony's statement that ‘control is the process of assuring that the organization does what management wants done’ implies that systems for management control must be broadly conceived. This paper takes the view that a comprehensive view of control systems should include at least five components: performance measurement, strategy, organization structure, direction and motivation. Each of these components reflects management choices, but those choices have implications for the other components. A strategy of dynamic new product development for example, requires a flexible structure, and should have performance measures that relate to the structure and the desired achievements for that strategy. As what is measured signals what is important, the measures provide direction and the basis for incentives and rewards. The interdependence of the components is seen as a key factor in control system design. When the components support each other, the interdependence is a source of strength; conflict or even absence of support among the components can be a source of weakness. This paper describes the components and illustrates ways in which the design of control systems needs to recognize their interdependence. The process of system implementation is also reviewed, as process choices can be independent of design choices. The framework is related to prior research and writing, showing that the components are themselves complex and have been the focus of extensive study. Finally, several teaching cases are decribed in order to show how the design issues may appear in practice and how the framework can be used to help teach management control systems.     

Strategic renewal: Can it be done profitably?

Industry transformation requires strategic renewal at the level of individual firms. Executives then face the dilemma of choosing renewal paths in the face of uncertainty over the competitive environment of the future, and hence the profitability of potential strategies. This dilemma motivates us to study industry transformation from the perspective of strategic renewal among 208 large firms in the global pulp and paper industry. The findings of our qualitative comparative analysis show that only a minority of firms in our sample succeeded in profitable proactive renewal. Content-wise, there were similarities in the pursued strategies over the wider population, but only a few maintained superior profitability while proactively renewing. Our results, overall, highlight the importance of understanding the processual nature and execution of strategic renewal.     

Does shift work lead to poorer health habits? A comparison between women who had always done shift work with those who had never done shift work

Shift work has been reported to predict health problems, and a possible explanation is that shift work may lead to poorer health habits, thereby increasing a person's vulnerability to illness. This study examined the association between shift work and health habits, as indicated by smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity and by being overweight. A questionnaire was sent to all 2795 female nurses working in the 10 hospitals of two Finnish health care districts. From the 2299 respondents, we selected those 506 shift workers who reported having always done shift work and those 183 day workers who had never done shift work. Shift workers were found to smoke more and to be overweight more often than day workers. These differences gradually increased in each successive age group, being 1.94 pack-years in smoking and 0.9 kg m^-2 in body mass index among nurses over 45 years of age. Shift work was not associated with alcohol intake or sedentary lifestyle. This evidence is compatible with the possibility that shift work in nurses increases smoking and being overweight to a degree that contributes to health problems, including coronary heart disease.     

Premium will continue to be on performance. Interview by Wesley Curry.

With a new name for its professional organization (the American College of Physician Executives) and a new certifying organization (the American Board of Medical Management), the profession of medical management is in the throes of significant and far-reaching change. At the College's National Conference in Washington, D.C. in May, we talked to two leaders of the profession, Michael B. Guthrie, MD, MBA, FACPE, and Robert H. Hodge, Jr., MD, FACPE about what the future holds for physician executives and what physician executives can do to position themselves for success. Dr. Guthrie, the Immediate Past President of the College is Vice President for Business Development, Penrose/St. Francis Healthcare System, Colorado Springs, Colo. Dr. Hodge, the new President of the College, is a Program Director, W.K. Kellogg Foundation, Battle Creek, Mich.     

What Should Planners Do to Address Unethical Political Pressure?

This paper presents the case study of three planners who risked their jobs to oppose unethical political pressures in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It attempts to understand what was done by these planners to address those pressures and what lessons could we learn from their experiences. This research found that in a hostile political environment where unethical political pressure is strong, and voicing is of little help, unique actions of procedural planning (exit, deny-exit-and-expose, and defend), deontological in nature, may have to be adopted. If that is not adequate one should also consider de-communicating or manipulative actions, teleological in approach.     

Reassessing the human health benefits from cleaner air

Recent proposals to further reduce permitted levels of air pollution emissions are supported by high projected values of resulting public health benefits. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency recently estimated that the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) will produce human health benefits in 2020, from reduced mortality rates, valued at nearly $2 trillion per year, compared to compliance costs of $65 billion ($0.065 trillion). However, while compliance costs can be measured, health benefits are unproved: they depend on a series of uncertain assumptions. Among these are that additional life expectancy gained by a beneficiary (with median age of about 80 years) should be valued at about $80,000 per month; that there is a 100% probability that a positive, linear, no-threshold, causal relation exists between PM(2.5) concentration and mortality risk; and that progress in medicine and disease prevention will not greatly diminish this relationship. We present an alternative uncertainty analysis that assigns a positive probability of error to each assumption. This discrete uncertainty analysis suggests (with probability >90% under plausible alternative assumptions) that the costs of CAAA exceed its benefits. Thus, instead of suggesting to policymakers that CAAA benefits are almost certainly far larger than its costs, we believe that accuracy requires acknowledging that the costs purchase a relatively uncertain, possibly much smaller, benefit. The difference between these contrasting conclusions is driven by different approaches to uncertainty analysis, that is, excluding or including discrete uncertainties about the main assumptions required for nonzero health benefits to exist at all.     

Strategic planning in a turbulent international environment

What we have argued in this paper is that fundamental changes in the multinational corporate environment are taking place raising proaches to multinational environmental surveillance and multinational strategic management. We arenot offering this as a forecast of what the future will bring. Instead, we are proposing this framework to point to the need for greater environmental orientation and adaptation. MNCs are now in a double squeeze and managers must unlearn past models and criteria to understand problem. But the challenge is more than conventional corporate planning. The problematique can be decribed as one of multinational strategic management. In the area of environment we need research and learning to address three basic questions:What is the MCE? What concepts of the environment should be considered for strategic management? What parameters should be monitored? What are some consequences of the concept of interdependence and turbulence?What multinational environmental surveillance should be done? What methodologies are needed? How can these be made operational? How can the corporation be educated to behave in the new mode required in view of these changes?What new strategic issues and challenges lenges emerges from the MCE? What new demands must be factored into the multinational corporate planning processes? What new content does the changing environment procedure? How can the broadening field of opportunities and threats be systematically mapped and understood?     

Some issues in the current debate about energy and natural resources

“Zero-growth policies to restore the planet to long-term physical equilibrium or reliance upon market forces to achieve equilibrium between demand and supply?” This sums up the opposing views in the current debate about resources and the environment. Unfortunately, both viewpoints show a disregard for the social and political implications and the uncertainties surrounding their basic assumptions. This article argues that little reliance can be placed upon the published estimates of world fuel and mineral resources, that the assumption of long-term exponential growth in demand for resources is highly contentious, and that it would be unwise to forego the fruits of economic growth owing to a rather remote possibility that global resource depletion may occur in the distant future. Long-term projections are necessary to illustrate what the future may hold, but Malthusian or any other computer models should not be substituted for policy choices. As far as possible, policies should take account of uncertainty and risk and the problems likely to arise from rising prices of fuels and minerals resources and from the location of the bulk of the known reserves of some resources in a few countries. Not least, the aim should be to pursue paths of economic growth which place lighter demands upon the earth's resources and to open desirable technical options for the future through research and development.     

A Bayesian Benefit-Risk Model Applied to the South Florida Building Code

A Bayesian compound Poisson benefit-risk model is described in this paper, and used to evaluate recent revisions to the South Florida Building Code (SFBC). The model accounts for natural variability in hurricane frequency and severity, and uncertainty in the effectiveness of the revised code. Ranges of residential growth rate, code effectiveness, construction cost increase, and planning period length are assumed, to show the ranges of cost-to-performance ratio within which the code will make sense economically. The expected cost of residential hurricane damage over 50 years for ten South Florida counties assuming continuation of previous building practices was $93 billion, equivalent to the residential damage of 5.2 Andrews. Assuming a reduction in the growth of damageable housing in South Florida from 5.5% to 2% as a result of code revision, estimated damages under the new code were $45 billion. At a per-house construction cost increase of 5%, the probability of at least recovering the estimated $40 billion cost of the specified wind-resistant construction was estimated to be 47%. Expected return on investment was estimated at $7 billion over 50 years. The expected return lies between a $44 billion loss and a $47 billion gain, when growth in damageable housing is allowed to range from 1% to 4% and construction cost increases are assumed to lie between 3% and 8%. Actual monetary return for a 5% cost increase and 2% growth in damageable housing ranges from a $20 billion loss to a $100 billion gain with 95% probability, as a result of weather variability alone. Results support SFBC revisions on solely economic grounds, a conclusion strengthened considerably in light of potentially avoided deaths and hurricane traumas. The model represents one approach to evaluating economic aspects of the sustainability of new technological measures on the basis of available information.     

存在战略购买需求的定价、供给、机制选择和配给研究

本文研究存在战略购买需求的易逝资产销售策略问题。垄断厂商基于利润最大化目标确定易逝资产定价、供给、机制选择和配给策略,战略消费者通过锚定预期价格安排战略购买时机。不同于通常基于效用理论研究定价的思路,本文首先基于锚定效应和跨期价格均衡思想探寻不同战略等待购买规模的市场预期需求曲线和动静态定价区域;其次在众多预期需求曲线中寻找市场有效定价前沿（即有效预期需求曲线）;再次在利润曲面上找出与有效定价前沿对应的容量扩展线（即最大利润曲线）;最后沿容量扩展线和有效定价前沿搜寻最大期望利润及相应策略。研究表明,消费者保留价异质和需求不确定性是动态定价和战略购买存在的根本原因;市场在不同战略等待购买规模状态拥有不同预期需求曲线,最大战略等待购买规模状态预期需求曲线是市场有效定价前沿。动静态定价机制各有其所适用的容量和价格空间,消费者保留价水平和战略消费者规模决定动态定价空间大小,随机需求分布差异只影响动态定价空间形状（即影响需求弹性）。在跨期价格均衡区域内,提价和扩容都会加剧消费者战略购买程度,供给越大定价往往越低。战略购买不仅会降低厂商供给、定价和利润水平,改变不同类型消费者之间高低价购买机会,甚至还可能影响定价机制选择和配给策略。压缩过度供给和虚高价格空间可降低战略购买导致的利润损失。本文研究结果可为考虑消费者行为的需求价格理论研究和运营管理实践提供参考。