我国实际低生育水平的影响因素分析——邦戈茨低生育率模型应用

本文使用2010年江苏省六县市"生育意愿与生育行为研究"跟踪调查数据,应用邦戈茨低生育率模型,对已基本完成生育周期且可生育二孩妇女的实际生育水平的影响因素进行了分析。在以意愿生育水平为参照的条件下,研究发现,初育年龄推迟、教育水平提高,工作压力等都对妇女的实际生育水平产生了显著的抑制作用。     

亚洲发展中国家和地区妇女实际生育水平与更替生育水平的评估

随着社会经济的发展,人口趋势发生转变,自然增长率与总和生育率降低。在这种大趋势背景下,对世界人口形势的判断有过于乐观之嫌以及针对人们对妇女更替生育水平的误解,利用亚洲一些国家(或地区)1990～2000年期间妇女年龄别生育率和死亡模式等数据资料,计算得到各国妇女更替生育水平,表明各国之间妇女更替水平存在较大差异。通过与其实际总和生育率比较,可以发现在发展国家中绝大部分国家实际生育水平依然高于妇女更替生育水平,发展中国家人口潜在的增长能量依然很大,世界人口增长的趋势依然强劲。因此,在注意生育率下降所带来问题的同时,也不能够忽视发展中国家人口增长所带来的全球影响。     

从时期孩次递进比的变化看翼城县试行晚婚晚育加间隔的生育办法的人口控制效果

翼城县自1985年开始试行晚婚晚育加间隔的生育办法,其人口控制效果如何?本文利用时期孩次递进比反映妇女的生育水平,再通过该县试点前后妇女生育水平的变化来从一个侧面说明翼城县试行这个生育办法的人口控制效果.     

广东妇女生育水平的变化及影响因素分析

根据第五次人口曾查资料,本文详细描述了广东妇女生育水平的现状。并从实际出发,对影响广东省生育水平和生育机制的农村生育模式,生育孩次构成,文化水平和职业构成等四个重要因素进行分析。最后,就稳定广东省低生育水平,提高人口科学管理等问题提出三点建议。     

禀赋、场域与中国妇女生育意愿研究

利用2006年中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据,构建模型,对中国18～52岁妇女的意愿生育决策、生育强度及其影响因素进行实证分析。在众多因素中,家庭已有孩子构成、能力禀赋、资本禀赋对妇女生育意愿有着显著影响,技术禀赋对妇女再生育的意愿和强度有重要影响。同时,将划分生育场域边界的地区变量纳入模型,显示不同区域间妇女的生育意愿存在较大差别,中西部地区妇女的生育意愿明显高于东北部地区;妇女禀赋条件越改善、禀赋水平越高、生育场域越优化,其生育意愿、生育强度越低,生育行为越趋理性。未来开展人口和计划生育工作,制定、调整人口和计划生育政策,应该对此予以充分考虑。     

北京市生育水平和出生性别比及外来人口影响

文章对北京市第五次人口普查样本进行了生育分析,按北京全市合计、本市妇女和外来妇女分别计算了生育水平和出生性别比,以求研究外来妇女对北京市生育水平和出生性别比失调方面的影响。     

家庭结构对妇女生育水平影响的研究

本文利用人口普查数据分析了家庭结构对妇女生育水平的影响。分析结果显示,妇女的生育水平和家庭结构类型有关。家庭规模大小和妇女的生育和存活子女数量存在着明显的正向关系,大家庭中育龄妇女总和生育率高于小家庭,不同结构类型家庭的育龄妇女生育模式存在明显差别。     

2000-2010年中国育龄妇女生育完成度变化分析

新中国成立以来,妇女不论在社会活动领域还是家庭领域的地位都有了质的变化。妇女可以参与各种政治、经济、文化娱乐等活动,有的妇女在家庭领域的地位甚至超过了丈夫。尽管妇女受教育程度提高了,但与男性相比还有一定的差距。有研究表明:受教育程度和生育水平呈负相关,尤其是母亲的受教育水平影响更显著。由于教育的影响,妇女的生育水平和生育时间都发生了很大的变化。文章利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来研究育龄妇女的生育年龄的完成度变化情况,并对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率会在一定程度上呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

影响磐石县人口出生率回升的主要原因及对策

<正> 人口、出生率是某地、某时期出生人口数与某地、某时期平均人口数的千分比。出生率的变动影响人口总量的变动,出生率的变动情况体现人口再生产的情况。因此,研究人口出生率的变动情况、分析其变动原因,对于了解人口再生产情况、评价计划生育工作及预测未来人口发展趋势都十分重要。人口出生率的变动,受育龄妇女生育水平的影响,而妇女生育水平的变动,则受社会经济、人口政策、文化程度、行业、职业及年龄构成,身体素质等诸多因素的影响。一个地区经济越发达、文化程度越高,妇女生育水平越低,出生人口越少,人口出生率越低,反之,经济越落后,文化程度越低,妇女生育水平就越高,出生的人口就越多,人口生出率当然也就越高。行业、职业不同,生育水平也不一样:脑力劳动者,生育水     

我国妇女平均生育年龄动态分析(1960——1981年)

<正> 平均生育年龄是描述某一妇女人群生育年龄水平的综合性指标,是研究妇女生育状况的一个重要参数。建国以来,特别是七十年代以来,我国妇女的平均生育年龄发生了很大的变化。分析研究这一变化过程的基本情况和规律,完整、系统地描述它发展的历史和现状,对于今后研究我国人口发展战略及制定人口政策具有重要的意义。妇女平均生育年龄因受婚姻状况、社会经济因素、文化、生育意愿、生育政策等多种因素的制约,所以,各个时期的妇女平均生育年龄不尽相同,各有特点。妇女平均生育年龄可以分胎次进行研究。这样,便于了解各个不同历史时期妇女各胎次平均生育年龄的变化规律,并且可以加深对妇女不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄运动规律的认识。本文试从1982年全国千分之一人口生育率抽样调查机器汇总资料,对我国妇女1960——1981年各胎次及不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄的动态变化作一初步分析。     

山东省19-35岁育龄人口优生知识与态度调查

本文通过对山东省19-35岁育龄人口优生知识与态度的调查了解育龄人口优生知识掌握情况与态度取向。研究显示不同性别、不同文化程度、不同地域的人口,优生知识的掌握程度和优生态度有明显差别。     

Factors related to the intention to have additional children in the United States: A reanalysis of data from the 1965 and 1970 national fertility studies

Reproductive intentions of white mothers with no more than three children in 1965 and in 1970 were analyzed for their stability and change with respect to such factors as parity, age of the youngest child, wife’s employment, and husband’s education. Parity and age of the youngest child were found to have a much more important effect on the intent to have additional children than were such socioeconomic variables as wife’s employment and husband’s education. Parity and the interval since the latest birth (or the age of the youngest child) were found to have a nonlinear effect and to interact in affecting the reproductive intention. This suggests a convergence to a twochild family as the threshold size and that the length of childspacing is contingent on the parity. Change during 1965–1970 in this direction was found to be greater among mothers with husbands having college or higher educations.     

Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low‐Fertility Countries

The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self‐reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible “low‐fertility trap.” Policies explicitly addressing the fertility‐depressing effect of increases in the mean age at child‐bearing (the tempo effect) may be a way to raise period fertility to somewhat higher levels and help escape the “low‐fertility trap” before it closes. Reforms in the school system may affect the timing of childbearing by lowering the age at completion of education. A more efficient school system, which provides the same qualifications with a younger school‐leaving age, is potentially capable of increasing period fertility and hence exerting a rejuvenating effect on the age composition, even if the levels of cohort fertility remain unchanged. Such policies may also have a positive effect on completed cohort fertility.     

农村独女户男孩偏好转化研究——基于湖北部分县市的抽样调查

在性别比居高不下的大环境下,湖北农村的独女户群体依然保持一定规模但其男性偏好呈现弱化走势,本文通过比较独女户群体和有几户群体在基本生存状况、生育意愿、性别平等观念等方面的差异和不同,来分析“独女户”这种家庭结构的选择对男孩偏好的影响的制约,以期为性别比控制政策的制定做出有益探索。     

Timing of family income, borrowing constraints, and child achievement

I investigate the effects of the timing of family income on child achievement production. Detailed administrative data augmented with Programme for International Student Assessment test scores at age 15 are used to analyze the effects of the timing of family income on child achievement. Contrary to many earlier studies, the results suggest that the timing of income does not matter for long-term child outcomes. This is a reasonable result given the setting in a Scandinavian welfare state with generous child and education subsidies. Actually, later family income (age 12–15) is a more important determinant of child achievement than earlier income.     

Mother's education and effect of son preference on fertility in Matlab,Bangladesh

This analysis follows earlier research that hypothesized and substantiated that, in a society with strong son preference, its effect on fertility would be conditional on the level of contraceptive use. Present analysis of the prospective fertility experience of 22,819 women of reproductive age during 3.5 years in Matlab, Bangladesh, shows that this effect is higher among mothers with postprimary schooling versus those with primary or no education. The higher effect conforms with the known positive relationship of contraceptive use with maternal schooling. However, this increase when contrasted with the idea that education promotes modern values, including gender equality, suggests that education in Matlab, with its traditional slant, is not resistant to son preference. In a poor, traditional society with low status for women, schooling alone is not enough to motivate women to abandon low esteem for daughters though schooling promotes child survival. But if preference for smaller family size increases, promoted by education including such modern values as gender equality, then sex preference, although it cannot be completely removed, will have minimal effect on fertility as in most developed countries.Abbreviations DSS demographic surveillance system - ICDDR,B International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh - MCH-FP maternal/child health and family planning - SPEF sex preference effect on fertility     

Changes in fertility patterns can improve child survival in Southeast Asia

This analysis of 1988 Philippine Demographic Survey data provides information on the direct and indirect effects of several major determinants of childhood mortality in the Philippines. Data are compared to rates in Indonesia and Thailand. The odds of infant mortality in the Philippines are reduced by 39% by spacing children more than two years apart. This finding is significant because infant mortality rates have not declined over the past 20 years. Child survival is related to the number of children in the family, the spacing of the children, the mother's age and education, and the risks of malnutrition and infection. Directs effects on child survival are related to infant survival status of the preceding child and the length of the preceding birth interval, while key indirect or background variables are maternal age and education, birth order, and place of residence. The two-stage causation model is tested with data on 13,716 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 20,015 index children born between January 1977 and February 1987. Results in the Philippine confirm that maternal age, birth order, mortality of the previous child, and maternal education are directly related to birth interval, while mortality of the previous child, birth order, and maternal educational status are directly related to infant mortality. Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines all show similar explanatory factors that directly influence infant mortality. The survival status of the preceding child is the most important predictor in all three countries and is particularly strong in Thailand. This factor acts through the limited time interval for rejuvenation of mother's body, nutritional deficiencies, and transmission of infectious disease among siblings. The conclusion is that poor environmental conditions increase vulnerability to illness and death. There are 133% greater odds of having a short birth interval among young urban women than among older rural women. There is a 29% increase in odds for second parity births compared to third or higher order parities. Maternal education is a strong predictor of infant survival only in the Philippines and Indonesia. Adolescent pregnancy is a risk only in Indonesia. Socioeconomic factors are not as important as birth interval, birth order, and maternal education in determining survival status.     

Changes in the Relationship Between Child Support Payments and Educational Attainment of Offspring, 1979–1988

We examine changes over the 1980s in the effect of child support payments on the educational attainment of children age 16 to 19 in the United States, and why child support has a stronger impact than other sources of income. We use 1979 and 1988 Current Population Survey data, covering a period when improvements in enforcement should have increased the proportion of reluctant fathers paying support. We hypothesize and find that the positive effect of child support on education diminished somewhat over this period, both absolutely and in relation to other income.     

一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女生育意愿比较

基于江苏苏南某农村790户家庭的抽样调查数据,比较一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女的生育意愿,并运用回归模型对影响两类家庭育龄妇女生育意愿的因素进行研究。结果显示,两类家庭育龄妇女的意愿生育数量、意愿生育性别和意愿生育间隔没有显著差异,仅在对"女性生育的最大年龄"的认识上二孩妇女明显低于一孩妇女。但两类家庭育龄妇女在生育意愿的影响因素上存在着较大的差异。     

河南省农村人口年龄结构对消费影响的实证分析

本文利用1987～2008年年度资料对河南省农村人口年龄结构影响农村居民消费的情况进行分析,发现少儿抚养系数、老年抚养系数与消费存在长期协整关系,并且少儿抚养系数对农村居民消费有显著的正影响,老年抚养系数对消费的影响不显著。因此,提出通过加大农村教育投入、完善农村养老保障、细分市场来应对人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响。