Transition to First Marriage in Reform-Era Urban China: The Persistent Effect of Education in a Period of Rapid Social Change

The negative association between education and marriage timing is often explained by an economic independence theory: education provides women with independent economic resources to reject the caregiver role in marriage. However, cross-national evidence shows the importance of cultural and historical continuity in marriage formation. This article examines the relationship between educational attainment and the timing of first marriage in reform-era urban China since the 1980s. Reform-era urban China provides a strong case to examine both theories: it has a strong marriage norm, but it has also experienced a rapid increase in gender inequality in the labor market during the economic reform. Using detailed education and work histories of 3,808 respondents from two waves of the Chinese General Social Survey, this article uses discrete-time hazard regressions to contrast the marriage experience between two cohorts that faced different labor market constraints. The evidence fits better with a path dependence theory. Specifically, the effect of education on marriage timing, for both women and men, is not significantly different between these two cohorts. The results encourage attention to local institutions and local culture in understanding the relationship between conditions in the labor market and marriage formation.     

The effects of remarriage on women’s labor supply

Many studies have found that women decrease their labor supply upon marriage and increase their labor supply upon divorce. This paper examines whether that pattern varies depending on whether the marriage is a first or higher-order one using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the years 1979 through 2001. The combination of a greater expected probability that a remarriage will end and the failure of household production to bring returns upon the end of a previous marriage may make women less likely to reduce their labor supply in second or higher marriages as compared to a first marriage. The results differ for the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. With one exception, after controlling for background characteristics, the estimates imply that the probability of working is related to marriage in a similar manner regardless of whether the marriage is a first or a remarriage. In contrast, the estimates provide support for the possibility that decreases in hours of work upon marriage are smaller in second and higher marriages as compared to first marriages.     

Household division of labor and cross-country differences in household formation rates

This paper considers the extent to which the gender division of labor affects the likelihood of household formation. Using repeated cross sectional data covering highly-developed nations, we consider the differential effects of aggregate social norms regarding the division of household labor. Controlling for other factors that affect the marriage market, our findings indicate that more egalitarian norms are associated with an increase in the probability of forming a household. When additionally controlling for individual attitudes, we find that, ceteris paribus, more egalitarian women are less likely to form a household, while more egalitarian men are more likely to do so. This pattern of results is consistent with economic models of the marriage market where partners contract over the future household division of labor. Moreover, given the salience of household formation as a proximate determinant of fertility, our results potentially shed light onto the process of below replacement fertility and the economic challenges associated with it.     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Economic and demographic effects on working women in Latin America

The paper uses historical census data and the latest household surveys to investigate the evolution of female employment in Latin America, the effect of demographic factors on female labor force participation, and the reasons for the observed male-female gap in labor earnings. The findings show that, though women's labor force participation in Latin America has indeed increased despite the adverse economic conditions of the last two decades, marriage and fertility still exercise a large negative effect on women's labor supply. On average in the 15 countries studied, marriage reduces the probability that a woman would work by half, and each child by a further 3–5% These effects result in age-participation profiles that decrease with age although the econometric analysis suggests that, as women get older, they have a ceteris paribus greater probability to seek employment. In all the countries studied women are rewarded less than men and gender differences in human capital characteristics cannot account for the observed earnings differential. The paper discusses the significance of the findings for potential policies to assist women, especially in the areas of education and fertility, and also suggests the direction of further reserarch.The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank and its affiliated organisations.     

The determinants of a mother's choice of family structure

This study attempts to clarify the effect of welfare generosity on family structure while controlling for community mores, local labor market conditions, and other sociodemographic characteristics. In the existing AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) literature, these latter factors have been largely ignored. The empirical analysis is conducted by linking individual-level data from the 1987 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) with information on county-level unemployment rates, state AFDC benefits, and proxies of community mores. In particular, the detailed nature of the NSFH data set provides a unique opportunity to investigate the social and economic determinants of cohabitation, among other family structures. Local labor market conditions are found to significantly affect marriage and single-motherhood, while community conservatism is found to discourage the least conventional family structure — cohabitation. Finally, this study raises some question about the effect of AFDC policy on marriage and related events. Specifically, AFDC's statistical impact is found to be sensitive to the inclusion of an explicit measure of community conservatism in the empirical model specification.     

社会网络视角下中国农村成年男性初婚风险的影响因素分析

在婚姻挤压背景下,男性拥有较多的社会网络资源是否意味着他们有更多结识异性和获得应急性经济支持的机会,从而增加了其初婚的概率?利用2008年西安交通大学人口与发展研究所在安徽X县调查的数据,从社会网络角度出发,采用事件史分析方法分析影响18~50岁农村男性初婚风险水平的因素。分析结果表明,当前农村男性的初婚年龄主要集中在22~27岁之间,27岁以上仍未结婚的男性,其成婚的概率急剧下降,成为婚姻市场的弱势群体;男性自身的特征和资源拥有状况,包括婚前社会网络、个人经济和非经济特征、家庭和社区因素,往往决定着个人的初婚风险水平,一般来说,男性自身特征和资源拥有状况越差,结婚的可能性越小。     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

The effect of divorce costs on marriage formation and dissolution

Exploiting the theoretical parallels between the matching of workers to jobs in the labour market and the matching of individuals in the marriage market, we use a search theoretic model of marriage formation and dissolution to examine the effect of divorce costs on both decisions. By introducing learning at both stages of the marital decision process, we show that divorce costs not only affect the probability of divorce but also the probability of marriage. Interestingly, to what extent divorce costs affect the marital status distribution depends on the information regarding the quality of the potential marriage that individuals receive while encountering marital offers. Received: 30 July 1996/Accepted: 7 December 1998     

Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi

This article examines the effect of AIDS-related mortality of the prime-age adult population on marriage behavior among women in Malawi. A rise in prime-age adult mortality increases risks associated with the search for a marriage partner in the marriage market. A possible behavioral change in the marriage market in response to an increase in prime-age adult mortality is to marry earlier to avoid exposure to HIV/AIDS risks. We test this hypothesis by using micro data from Malawi, where prime-age adult mortality has drastically increased. In the analysis, we estimate the probability of prime-age adult mortality that sample women have observed during their adolescent period by utilizing retrospective information on deaths of their siblings. Empirical analysis shows that excess prime-age adult mortality in the local marriage market lowers the marriage age for females and shortens the interval between the first sex and first marriage.     

婚姻市场、农业剩余与光棍分布--一个理解农村光棍问题的中观机制

在婚姻市场渗透下,中西部农村家庭继替具有市场参与性特征：婚姻市场竞争过程形塑出以竞争力为指标的婚姻梯队序列,在优势梯队实现的家庭继替具有向上社会流动的特征,梯队末端则呈现为底层沦陷;农村男性青年在婚姻梯队序列所处的位置取决于其家庭的资源积聚方式、能力和分配方式。调查发现末端梯队集中分布于农业剩余稀薄村庄,其内在机理是农业剩余稀薄通过形塑家庭劳动力的不合理配置与以年轻人为主体的资源积聚方式和向家庭日常生活基本需要进行倾斜的资源分配方式削弱了男性青年的婚姻市场竞争力,其现象表征是扎堆分布的光棍。     

The influence of nonmarital childbearing on the formation of first marriages

We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities.     

Earnings,relative income,and family formation

The probability of first marriage for men who graduated from Wisconsin high schools in 1957 was analyzed with respect to their Social Security earnings records, Wisconsin income tax reports for parents, and other variables. The findings provide no support for Easterlin's hypothesis that marriage will occur earlier when young men judge their economic prospects favorably with respect to their parents' income. However, young men's earnings and time spent in schooling to increase them were found to be important influences on marriage timing. Additional schooling had little effect net of the time it absorbed.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.     

The long-term effect of childhood poverty

This paper uses variation among siblings to identify the consequences of childhood poverty on both labour and marriage market outcomes. In the labour market, individuals who experienced childhood poverty are found to have lower earnings and lower labour market attachment and to have worse jobs both vertically in terms of low-paying industries and horizontally in terms of job positions. In the marriage market, childhood poverty is found to have negative consequences for the probability of marriage, cohabitation, and having children around the age of 30. The effect sizes are found to exhibit an inverse u-shape in the age of the child, peaking during adolescence. Results on educational choices suggest that the mechanisms behind these results can be that childhood poverty affects the skill formation, networks, and decision making of the child.     

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents’ number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply for women, which fade as children mature and even turn positive for women without a college degree. Among women with a college degree, there is evidence of persistent and even increasing career penalties of family size. Having additional children reduces these women’s probability of being employed by higher-paying firms, their earnings rank within the employing firm, and their probability of being the top earner at the workplace. Some of the career effects persist long after labor supply is restored. We find no effect of family size on any of men’s labor market outcomes in either the short or long run.     

How do marital status,work effort,and wage rates interact?

How marital status interacts with men's earnings is an important analytic and policy issue, especially in the context of debates in the United States over programs that encourage healthy marriage. This paper generates new findings about the earnings-marriage relationship by estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates. The estimates are based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel data, covering 23 years of marital and labor market outcomes, and control for unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate marriage effects on hours worked (our proxy for work effort) and on wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately. The estimates reveal that entering marriage raises hours worked quickly and substantially but that marriage's effect on wage rates takes place more slowly while men continue in marriage. Together; the stimulus to hours worked and wage rates generates an 18%-19% increase in earnings, with about one-third to one-half of the marriage earnings premium attributable to higher work effort. At the same time, higher wage rates and hours worked encourage men to marry and to stay married. Thus, being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.     

Remarriage,Delayed Marriage,and Black/White Intermarriage, 1968–1995

How have changes in marriage order and marriage timing affected 1968–1995 trends in United States Black/White intermarriage? Researchers usually follow a one-sex perspective on the effects of timing and marriage order on marital selection, arguing that delayed marriages and remarriages will be more heterogamous than early or first marriages. This paper shows that a one-sex perspective is oversimplified and that assortative marriage with respect to race depends on the interaction of both husband’s and wife’s characteristics. Marriages that match with respect to age or marriage order tend to also match with respect to race. First marriages and remarriages for both partners are more likely to be same-race marriages. Marriages that are intermarriages with respect to marriage order are more likely to also be intermarriages with respect to race. Marriages that are usual age combinations (husband and wife similar in age or husband slightly older) are also usual race combinations (husband and wife same race). Marriages that are unusual age combinations are more likely to be racial intermarriages. This paper also shows that trends in remarriage patterns do not account for the increasing trend in racial intermarriage and that trends in marriage timing have actually slowed increases in racial intermarriage.     

Men’s career development and marriage timing during a period of rising inequality

Based on data from 1979–1990 NLSY interviews, we investigate the implications of rising economic inequality for young men’s marriage timing. Our approach is to relate marriage formation to the ease or difficulty of the career-entry process and to show that large race/schooling differences in career development lead to substantial variations in marriage timing. We develop measures of current career “maturity” and of long-term labor-market position. Employing discrete-time event-history methods, we show that these variables have a substantial impact on marriage formation for both blacks and whites. Applying our regression results to models based on observed race/schooling patterns of career development, we then estimate cumulative proportions ever married in a difficult versus an easy career-entry process. We find major differences in the pace of marriage formation, depending on the difficulty of the career transition. We also find considerable differences in these marriage timing patterns across race/schooling groups corresponding to the large observed differences in the speed and difficulty of career transitions between and within these groups