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1.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
2.
George Van Houtven Melonie B. Sullivan Chris Dockins 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(2):179-199
Many studies estimate individuals’ values for avoiding fatality risks; however, most value-of-statistical-life studies focus
on accident-related deaths. Consequently, little is known about preferences for avoiding other fatal risks, such as cancer.
Cancer may engender strong feelings of dread, leading to a “cancer premium,” but cancer latency periods may have the opposite
effect. Using a national survey, we elicit relative preferences for avoiding fatal cancer and auto-accident risks. We find
strong preferences for avoiding cancer risks. With a 5-year latency, they are valued roughly three times greater than immediate
accident risks, declining to 50% greater for a 25-year latency.
相似文献
George Van HoutvenEmail: |
3.
W. Kip Viscusi 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(3):191-213
This paper uses a random utility model to examine stated preferences for the valuation of public risks of fatalities from
terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Traffic-related deaths serve as the common reference point in two series of pairwise
risk-risk tradeoff choices. Even after taking into account differences in respondent risk beliefs, the nationally representative
sample values the prevention of terrorism deaths almost twice as highly as preventing natural disaster deaths and at about
the same level as preventing deaths from traffic accidents, which pose greater personal risk. Education, seatbelt usage, political
preferences, and terrorism risk beliefs affect valuations in the expected manner.
相似文献
W. Kip ViscusiEmail: |
4.
Matthew E. Kahn 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):17-43
Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile
Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts
an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into
increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote
in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented.
Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.
相似文献
Matthew E. KahnEmail: |
5.
Laura Schechter 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):67-76
Rabin (Econometrica 68(5):1281–1292, 2000) argues that, under expected-utility, observed risk aversion over modest stakes implies extremely high risk aversion over
large stakes. Cox and Sadiraj (Games Econom. Behav. 56(1):45–60, 2006) have replied that this is a problem of expected-utility of wealth, but that expected-utility of income does not share that
problem. We combine experimental data on moderate-scale risky choices with survey data on income to estimate coefficients
of relative risk aversion using expected-utility of consumption. Assuming individuals cannot save implies an average coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.92. Assuming they can decide
between consuming today and saving for the future, a realistic assumption, implies quadruple-digit coefficients. This gives
empirical evidence for narrow bracketing.
相似文献
Laura SchechterEmail: |
6.
Jinkwon Lee 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):19-41
We experimentally investigate the effect of an independent and exogenous background risk to initial wealth on subjects’ risk
attitudes and explore an appropriate incentive mechanism when identical or similar tasks are repeated in an experiment. Taking
a simple chance improving decision model under risk where the winning probabilities are negatively related to the potential
gain, we find that such a background risk tends to make risk-averse subjects behave more risk aversely. Furthermore, we find
that risk-averse subjects tend to show decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA), and that a random round payoff mechanism
(RRPM) would control the possible wealth effect. This suggests that RRPM would be a better incentive mechanism for an experiment
where repetition of a task is used.
相似文献
Jinkwon LeeEmail: |
7.
The problem of asymmetric information causes a winner’s curse in many environments. Given many unsuccessful attempts to eliminate
it, we hypothesize that some people ‘prefer’ the lotteries underlying the winner’s curse. Study 1 shows that after removing
the hypothesized cause of error, asymmetric information, half the subjects still prefer winner’s curse lotteries, implying
past efforts to de-bias the winner’s curse may have been more successful than previously recognized since subjects prefer
these lotteries. Study 2 shows risk-seeking preferences only partially explain lottery preferences, while non-monetary sources
of utility may explain the rest. Study 2 suggests lottery preferences are not independent of context, and offers methods to
reduce the winner’s curse.
相似文献
Robert Slonim (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal
effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different
points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects
are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we
do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.
相似文献
Lisa R. AndersonEmail: |
9.
Anna Alberini Stefania Tonin Margherita Turvani Aline Chiabai 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(2):155-178
We use conjoint choice questions to investigate the preferences of people in four cities in Italy for income and future/permanent
mortality risk reductions delivered by contaminated site remediation policies. The VSL is €5.6 million for an immediate risk
reduction. If the risk reduction takes place 20 years from now, the implied VSL is €1.26 million. Respondents’ implicit discount
rate is 7%. The VSL depends on respondent characteristics, familiarity with contaminated sites, concern about the health effects
of exposure to toxicants, having a family member with cancer, perceived usefulness of public programs and beliefs about the
goals of government remediation programs.
相似文献
Anna AlberiniEmail: |
10.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
11.
We implement a risk experiment that allows for judgment errors to investigate who makes mistakes and whether it matters. The
experiments are conducted with a random sample of the adult population in Rwanda, and data on financial decisions are collected.
We find a high proportion of inconsistent choices, with over 50% of the participants making at least one mistake. Importantly,
errors are informative. While risk aversion alone does not explain financial decisions, risk aversion and inconsistent choices
interact in significant and sensible ways. As we would expect, risk-averse individuals are more likely to belong to a savings
group and less likely to take out an informal loan. For those more likely to make mistakes, however, as they become more risk
averse, they are less likely to belong to a savings group and more likely to take up informal credit, suggesting that mistakes correlate with less than optimal behavior.
相似文献
Ragan Petrie (Corresponding author)Email: |
12.
The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’
events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in
social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents
deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of
public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications
for policy-related survey work.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
13.
A unified parameterization of an expected utility model corrected for regret and disappointment effects is presented, constrained
to conform to a well-known choice pattern, the common consequence effect, a special case of the Allais paradox. For choices
subject to regret and disappointment effects to be consistent with this choice pattern, the function that corrects the utility
of the obtained outcome has to have a positive second derivative for its regret component and a negative second derivative
for its disappointment component. These hypothesized functional forms make predictions about the relative effect that small
vs. large differences between obtained and alternative outcomes should have on people’s experiences of regret or disappointment.
相似文献
Elke U. WeberEmail: |
14.
Marco Casari 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):117-141
An agent with dynamically inconsistent preferences may deviate from her plan of action as the future draws near. An exponential
discounter may do exactly the same when facing an uncertain future. Through an experiment we compare preference-based vs.
uncertainty-based explanations for choice reversal over time by eliciting choices for pre-commitment and flexibility. Evidence
of widespread commitment favors a preference-based explanation.
相似文献
Marco CasariEmail: |
15.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
16.
In two experiments conducted with low-income participants, we find that individuals are more likely to buy state lottery tickets
when they make several purchase decisions one-at-a-time, i.e. myopically, than when they make one decision about how many
tickets to purchase. These results extend earlier findings showing that “broad bracketing” of decisions encourages behavior
consistent with expected value maximization. Additionally, the results suggest that the combination of myopic decision making
and the “peanuts effect”—greater risk seeking for low stakes than high stakes gambles—can help explain the popularity of state
lotteries.
相似文献
George LoewensteinEmail: |
17.
Counting casualties in conflict zones faces both practical and ethical concerns. Drawing on procedures from risk analysis,
we propose a general approach. It represents each death by standard features, having either essential value, for capturing the social and cultural meaning of individual casualties, or instrumental value, for relating patterns of casualties to possible causes and effects. We illustrate the approach with the choices involved
in attempts to record casualties in Iraq and the Israel-Palestine conflict, and with natural disasters, as exemplified by
Hurricane Katrina. We advocate institutionalizing the approach, so that recording casualties increases understanding, rather
than suspicion.
相似文献
Baruch FischhoffEmail: |
18.
Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Pavlo R. Blavatskyy 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(1):39-49
This paper presents a new incentive compatible method for measuring confidence in own knowledge. This method consists of two
parts. First, an individual answers several general knowledge questions. Second, the individual chooses among three alternatives:
(1) one question is selected at random and the individual receives a payoff if he or she has answered this question correctly;
(2) the individual receives the same payoff with a probability equal to the percentage of correctly answered questions; (3)
either the first or the second alternative is selected. The choice of the first (second) alternative reveals overconfidence
(underconfidence). The individual is well calibrated if he or she chooses the third alternative. Experimental results show
that subjects, on average, exhibit underconfidence about their own knowledge when the incentive compatible mechanism is used.
Their confidence in own knowledge does not depend on their attitude towards risk/ambiguity.
相似文献
Pavlo R. BlavatskyyEmail: |
19.
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential
contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection
implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles
or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare.
相似文献
Howard KunreutherEmail: |
20.
A reasonable level of risk aversion with respect to small gambles leads to a high, and absurd, level of risk aversion with
respect to large gambles. This was demonstrated by Rabin (Econometrica 68:1281–1292, 2000) for expected utility theory. Later, Safra and Segal (Econometrica, 2008) extended this result by showing that similar arguments apply to many non-expected utility theories, provided they are Gateaux
differentiable. In this paper we drop the differentiability assumption and by restricting attention to betweenness theories
we show that much weaker conditions are sufficient for the derivation of similar calibration results.
相似文献
Uzi Segal (Corresponding author)Email: |