考虑消费者环保意识的车企生产决策及最优补贴研究

政府补贴与新能源汽车市场接受度是影响新能源汽车推广的关键因素。新能源汽车产业发展在依托补贴等利好政策的同时,对车企的市场适应力也提出更高要求。本文运用效用模型分类消费者购车需求,根据利润最大化原则探究不同购车需求下车企最优生产决策,再通过求解Stackelberg模型得到考虑环境影响下社会福利最大化的最优补贴。结果表明,随着消费者意愿支付的提高,市场从一家车企生产向两家车企生产过渡。消费者环保意识较高时,新能源车企先生产,反之则传统车企先进入市场。若平均意愿支付低于传统车成本,随消费者环保意识提高,传统车最终将被挤出市场;反之传统车将始终与新能源车共存。新能源车企不生产时,政府一定不补贴;新能源车企生产时,政府不一定补贴。当市场上仅有新能源车,新能源车环境影响较大时政府不补贴;当两类汽车同时生产,两类汽车环境影响差异不大且意愿支付较低时政府不补贴。当两家车企共同生产且两类汽车环境影响差异较大时,补贴实施后传统车将退出市场。     

“双积分”政策下汽车制造商竞争定价与减排策略研究

"双积分"政策的实施对汽车制造商的定价决策产生了重要影响。考虑卖方由同时生产燃油车和新能源汽车的制造商1和仅生产新能源汽车的制造商2组成,在消费者低碳偏好和价格竞争影响下分别针对制造商1对燃油车采取和不采取节能减排措施的情况,研究"双积分"政策下汽车制造商的定价策略和减排决策,探讨新能源汽车积分值和积分比例要求对政府和企业决策的作用效果。进一步,通过对不同情形的结果进行分析,得到"双积分"政策的出台、消费者低碳偏好及制造商采取节能减排措施对制造商定价和减排决策带来的变化,并通过算例分析验证了结论。研究结果表明:(1)"双积分"政策可以降低新能源汽车的价格,提高新能源汽车制造商的利润,促进燃油车主动减排。(2)当新能源汽车的需求价格弹性系数和需求交叉价格弹性系数处于较高水平时,政府要制定较高的每台新能源汽车积分值。(3)燃油车的油耗水平存在一个环境属性标准,当油耗水平低于一定值时,随着新能源汽车积分比例要求的不断增大,制造商1选择提高燃油车价格。(4)消费者低碳偏好是提高燃油车减排水平的重要因素,政府可以对减排技术先进的燃油车制造商进行低油耗认证,提高消费者低油耗燃油车需求,激励燃油车制...     

季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究

基于季节性易逝品短销售期和短保质期的“双短”特性,其高额利润通常伴随着较大需求不确定性,而且一旦错过销售季节,其极低的残值将导致巨大经济损失与资源浪费.折价预售策略将鼓励消费者提前购买,经销商也可通过预售产品数量的获知来提升市场需求预测的准确性.但消费者在享受预购折价优惠的同时,也可能承担未见到实物产品即进行购买的期望价值损失.此时,经销商若采取回购,则是对消费者利益的直接保障,而在产生回购成本的同时,也可以通过提高预售价格与降低实物订货量等方式带来新增利润.考虑策略型消费者行为,对预售与回购联合策略和单一预售策略进行对比,构建两种策略下的经销商收益模型,并得出相应的最优预售价格与最优订购量.研究发现,当商品单位成本较大或回购价格较低时,预售与回购联合策略的实施能够使经销商获得更优收益,且最优预售价格高于单一预售策略,最优订货量则低于单一预售策略,从而为经销商营销策略选择进行决策支持.     

基于异质性顾客的随机配给策略研究

文中考虑了三类异质顾客:战略顾客、迟钝顾客与询价顾客,其中,战略顾客具有完全理性与风险中性特征;迟钝顾客由于其迟钝本性,表现出有限理性与隐性风险规避特征,这两类顾客的战略等待加剧了产品供给与需求的不匹配风险。研究了销售商采用随机配给策略以减少延迟购买期中产品可获得概率,促使战略顾客与迟钝顾客提前购买的价值。结论表明,在固定折扣价格策略中,当迟钝顾客的迟钝强度较低时,销售商最优策略是故意创造配给风险分割市场;在弹性折扣价格策略中,销售商是否运用随机配给策略不仅与迟钝强度有关,还取决于弹性价格折扣幅度。然后运用数值分析对这两种机制进行了比较,发现,销售商采用弹性折扣价格策略时,弹性折扣价格越低,随机配给的价值越大,即提供较大幅度价格折扣,反而增加其利润。     

网约车平台峰时补贴策略研究

针对网约车平台在需求高峰时段采取给予网约车司机补贴的实际背景，进行了网约车平台的最优峰时补贴策略选择研究。考虑采取平台单独补贴司机策略、乘客单独补贴司机策略、平台与乘客同时补贴司机策略的情况下，分别构建网约车平台的利润模型，通过最大化平台利润得到了三种情况下的最优决策。通过分析和比较三种情况下网约车平台的最优决策发现：当乘客潜在的市场规模较小时，应采用平台单独补贴司机策略；当乘客潜在的市场规模适中时，应采用平台与乘客同时补贴司机策略；当乘客潜在的市场规模较大时，应采用乘客单独补贴司机策略。此外，本文还进一步考察了乘客潜在市场规模、补贴敏感程度等因素对于最优决策下的补贴额度、需求与供给、平台利润和社会福利的影响。所得到的研究结果，对于网约车平台峰时补贴策略的选择和补贴价格的确定具有重要的指导价值。     

不同供应链模式下“以旧换新燃油”和“以旧换新能源”定价策略

在以旧换新燃油车(TONF)和以旧换新能源车(TONE)共存的情况下,本文分别研究了直销模式和分销模式下汽车制造商和零售商的最优以旧换新策略和定价决策,并确定了以旧换新策略选择的阈值条件。结果表明:直销模式下,同时提供TONF和TONE两种以旧换新策略并不一定使制造商获益,这取决于燃油汽车和新能源汽车的生产成本之间的关系。而在分销模式下,零售商的以旧换新策略选择不仅取决于两类汽车的生产成本,还与制造商给予的旧燃油车回购价格有关。值得注意的是,只有当新燃油车和新能源车的生产成本都很低时,供应链模式的变化才会使得供应链以旧换新策略发生改变,同时回收效率也会改变。相较于分销模式,直销模式下的以旧换新需求更多,且供应链利润更高。     

范式转换、异质性与新兴产业演化

以新能源车为研究对象,从产品性能、销售价格和后续消费支出3个维度衡量新旧技术经济范式的空间和边界,在异质性条件下构建了消费者选择和企业投资决策模型,利用Mat-lab7.0对汽车产业的演化过程进行了模拟,并考察了政府消费性补贴和生产性补贴对新兴产业的扶持效应.结果发现:传统能源车凭借产品性能和销售价格的优势占领市场,尽管新能源车使用过程中后续消费支出较低,但无法突破传统能源车企业的主导地位;消费性补贴能够激发新能源车的购买,从需求侧倒逼新能源车企业通过技术创新活动改善产品性能、降低生产成本,有利于提高新兴企业的市场竞争力;生产性补贴虽然从供给侧帮助更多的新能源车企业进入市场参与竞争,却没能改变市场份额和盈利水平低下的困境,而且在一定程度上扰乱了市场秩序,没有真正起到扶持新兴产业发展的效果.     

双渠道供应链应对需求扰动的协调机制研究

考虑需求扰动对双渠道供应链决策及协调机制的影响,在稳定条件下提出双渠道供应链的收益共享协调合约。当市场需求发生扰动时,通过求解供应链系统最优利润的Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件,提出一体化双渠道供应链的最优价格及数量决策,并分析了调整价格策略的价值;提出改进的收益共享合约协调突发事件下的分散化双渠道供应链;最后数值实验检验了模型的有效性。     

容忍vs．打压：供应链减排不合规的碳审计机制研究

“3060”双碳目标对我国低碳发展提出了全新要求，随着碳配额总量上限的逐步下调，客观上增加了排放主体减排合规的不确定性。为此，借鉴惠普与华为激励供应商减排合规的理念，基于能够识别碳减排不合规的工具——碳审计，本文设计了基于容忍的碳审计机制与基于打压的碳审计机制，并进一步探究了利己策略与共赢策略对这两种碳审计机制的影响。研究发现，两种策略下最优的碳审计机制依赖于买方的商誉损失系数与采购价格。具体而言，利己策略下，当损失系数较低时或当损失系数适中且采购价格较低时，基于容忍的碳审计机制占优；当损失系数适中且采购价格较高时或当损失系数较高时，基于打压的碳审计机制占优。共赢策略下，当损失系数较低或者适中时，若采购价格满足一定的条件，基于容忍的碳审计机制占优。此外，研究还发现，相较于共赢策略，利己策略下占优的碳审计机制更能促使供应商碳减排合规。     

新能源汽车制造商分时租赁模式采用策略研究——基于商业模式比较的演化分析

考虑政策、技术和服务化三方面动因,构建政府补贴决策和制造商商业模式决策的演化博弈模型,研究制造商的分时租赁模式采用策略问题,并揭示新能源车补贴、新能源车技术等因素与分时租赁模式之间关系。研究发现,服务化所带来的合并效应和新能源汽车技术水平是决定商业模式的两个基本维度：合并效应决定了分时租赁的采用,而技术水平决定了销售模式的采用。两基本维度间存在互动关系,即合并效应对技术因素有补充作用和取代作用。新能源车补贴是通过影响两个基本维度,从而改变制造商的商业模式决策。制造商采用分时租赁模式的根本动机是服务化转型所带来的合并效应,而非获取新能源车补贴。在合并效应较大的情况下,分时租赁模式能够同时提高新能源汽车需求和消费者剩余。     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.